Lappeenrannan teknillisen yliopiston professori Lassi Linnasen esitys Miten Suomesta ravinteiden kierron mallimaa Sitran, BSAG:n ja LUT:n Ravinteiden kierrätys kiertotalouden ytimessä -tilaisuudessa 11.5.2015
3. Our Approach: Combination of Two Streams of Thought
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Resilience:
Planetary
boundaries
Transition management:
Forecasting
Backcasting
NUTS
4. ‒ 80 % of mined phosphorus never reaches consumers
‒ Average nitrogen use efficiency in Europe less than 15 %
‒ Maximization of yields per hectare despite dependence on external
resources
‒ Ratio of re-use/losses at a city scale, pre-industrial vs. 2000
‒ P from 8:1 to 1:1
‒ N from 3:1 to 1:3
‒ European food waste 720 kcal/cap/day
‒ Consuming 25 % of fertilizers, 31 % of water, and 26 % of cropland
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State-of Art 1: Low Efficiency
5. State-of Art 2: Degrading Resilience
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‒ P runoff into the sea 10-fold in comparison to natural runoff
‒ Areas with dead zones e.g. Yellow Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the Baltic Sea, the
Great Barrier Reef
‒ Reactive nitrogen leaks from the food system - a highly effective
greenhouse gas in the atmosphere -> connectedness
‒ Intentional and unintentional hindering of alternatives
‒ E.g. agro-food research and innovation favoring bio-genetic innovation over agro-
ecological
6. State-of Art 3: Growing Inequality
‒ 10 % of world´s cropland receives 32 % of N surplus and 40 % of P
surplus
‒ In rich economies artificial fertilizers too cheap, in poor economies too
expensive
‒ Concentration of bargaining power to the food industry and retailing
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7. SYSTEM BOTTLENECKS
Price of
natural
capital
Cheap mineral
fertilizers&
fossil fuels
Recycling
technology
expensive
Inefficient
utilization of
manure
Partial short-term
productivity
Large and
specialized
production
units
Disintegration
of animal and
plant
production
Regional
problem
accumulation
Growth of
investment
size
Dependence
on external
financing
Increase of
land renting
Reduced input
portfolio
Dependence
on external
inputs
Import of
surplus
nutrients
Demand
Lack of
awareness
and interest
Lack of
transparency
Retail sector
as gatekeeper
Fragmentation of
policy goals and
instruments
Sustaining
livelihood
Reinforcing
partial
optimization
Preserving old
habits and
structures
Protecting
environment
Increasing
bureaucracy
Managing
measures not
results
Energy policy
Favoring big
units over
small ones
Unfeasibility
of small-scale
biogas
production
8. How to Escape Lock-in?
(and make Finland a benchmark country for circular nutrient economy?)
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1. Get prices right: improved conditions for recycling organic by-products
2. Redefine agricultural productivity: it is not about closing the yield gap
3. Create demand: consumers and retail have pivotal responsibility
4. Enable food policy: coherence and flexibility instead of rigid silos