Business forward may jobs report
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  • 1. DRAFT00Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist0The Labor Market SituationJune 10, 2013Dr. Jennifer HuntChief EconomistUS Department of LaborOffice of the Chief Economist
  • 2. DRAFT11Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist1Steady job growth since February 2010Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics ProgramOver-the-month change, in thousands• May: 178• April: 157• March: 15412-month change, in thousands• May 2012 to May 2013: 2,173
  • 3. DRAFT22Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist2Steady unemployment decline since end 2009
  • 4. DRAFT33Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist3Professional & Business Services led job growth(again) this month
  • 5. DRAFT44Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist4Since the end of the recession, many industries havenot recovered their employment losses
  • 6. DRAFT55Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist5Long-term unemployed share falling
  • 7. DRAFT66Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist6Problem is not layoffs, but low hiring rate
  • 8. DRAFT77Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist7A Quick look at ConsumptionTrends Post-RecessionOffice of the Chief Economist
  • 9. DRAFT88Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist8Consumption and disposable income both fell, butthey were offset (slightly) by government transfersSource: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the GreatRecession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.
  • 10. DRAFT99Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist9All components of consumption fell in thisrecession, and were slow to recoverSource: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the GreatRecession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.
  • 11. DRAFT1010Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist10Unlike previous cycles, consumption has notreturned to the previous peak, especially for servicesSource: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the GreatRecession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.
  • 12. DRAFT1111Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist11Widespread financial difficulties in 2009, but poor jobmarket and rising prices main issues for low-income.Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the GreatRecession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment
  • 13. DRAFT1212Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist12Thank you!