Italia - Presentación AFAC AutopartesPresentation Transcript
ASOCIACIÓN DE FÁBRICAS ARGENTINAS DE COMPONENTES INVESTMENT IN AUTOPARTS IN ARGENTINA June 2011 Viamonte 1167, 2do. piso. Buenos Aires, ARGENTINA Tel. +54 11 4375-0516 Fax +54 11 4814-3434 E-mail: [email_address] www.afac.org.ar
LEADING INDICATORS Source: AFAC.
THE SLOPE OF THE PRODUCTION FROM 2008-2009 WAS THE HIGHEST RECORDED AFTER A CRISIS Fuente: ABECEB.COM. 2010 716.540 Monthly and annualized production. Units Vs 2009: +39,7% vs 2008: +20,0% Monthly production (Ieft) Annual production (right) Polinomic monthly Production (left)
VEHICLE PRODUCTION IN 2010 WAS ALSO A RECORD FOR MOST OF THE AUTOMOTIVE COMPANIES Fuente: ABECEB.COM Vehicle production by makers. Units Car segment A, B 48,7% Pick Ups 29,2% Car segment D, E 11,7% Commercials 7,1% Others 3,4% Less than 4 ayears77,4% More than 4 years 22,6% Share of production of vehicles by maker, segment and age
2011 GROWTH PROSPECTS 17,3% VS 2010 Source: ABECEB.COM Vehicle production. Units 4M2011 vs 4M2010 +27,8% Contributions to the estimated growth in 2011 by company ( %) 2011 864.600 (+20,7%) Increased production prospects are based on the expected demand pull and the major launching of new models : This year, Fiat has announced the second shift of production, jumping from 400 cars per day to 650. Mercedes Benz will also beguin a second shift of production from August (Sprinter , bus chassis and the new truck.) PSA began in March the production of 408 and Renault will go into full production regime of Fluence and will add a new production shift this year. Volkswagen Pick-up will also come into full production in 2011 an exports will increase by 77% between 2011 and 2012. In March Honda began production of the City model in its plant in Campana .
Production recovers from the crisis in 2009 using idle capacity, optimizing working shifts and increasing productivity . INSTALLED CAPACITY 54% 58% 50% 67% 69% 75% 80% Installed capacity in the automotive industry. Industry and companies. % Last year, that process began to show signs of exhaustion and some makers announced by the end of the year the addition of new production shifts (Fiat , Renault). In 2011 it becomes necessary to increase the installed capacity, especially in some companies (Toyota, GM ) Installed capacity Production
STRONG GROWTH OF DOMESTIC AUTO SALES
The growth of domestic demand in 2010 had its main support in:
Strong growth of economic activity (+8.9% )
Postponed consumption trailing from the 2008-2009 crisis
The few investment opportunities that existed last year to preserve the value of money
A significant recovery in financial instruments involving the purchase of vehicles (sales financing peaked in 2010: 36.3% )
2010 662.576 Vs 2009: +28,7% vs 2008: +8,5% Registrations. Monthly and annualized. Units Monthly registrations (left) Annualized registrations (right) Polinomic monthly registrations 1998 446.710 2002 95.283 2008 610.778
Source of growth by segment, brand and model (in % 4m2011-4m2010) New models: Fiat Uno 2010 Chevrolet Montana Ford Fiesta Kinetic Chery QQ Renault Fluence Renault Megane III Peugeot 408 Audi A1 Chevrolet Cruze Citroën DS3 Nissan Sentra Ford Transit Gama Baja Gama Media Com. Liv. Monovol. SUV Resto Var. 4M2011 / 4M2010 62.887 units 71,1% of registrations 56% Of the growth Source: abeceb .com and ACARA REGISTRATIONS Segment C, D, E Segment B Lights Comm. MPV-C Suv Others
1998 237.497 2003 108.158 2008 351.092 2010 447.953 -58,6% +256,9% 2009 322.495 Vs 2009: +38,9% Vs 2008: +27,6% Record sales in Brazil and Argentina increased participation in vehicles in that market vehicles joined with the recovery in other places to achieve a rise of almost 39% over 2009 and 27.6% over the previous maximum 2008 1999 98.362 -8,1% EXPORT OF VEHICLES MONTHLY AND ANNUALIZED. UNITS Monthly Exports (left) Annualized exports (right) Polinomic monthly exports (left)
AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION DESTINATION. 2010 Brazil growth quantitatively 62% 38% 48% 52% 72% 28% 83% 17% 53% 47% 56% 44% 70% 30% 70% 30% 15% 85% 127.818 126.968 96.454 96.059 91.222 87.072 70.032 16.461 4.453 Quantity of exported models and accumulated concentration of the exports . % There are also a concentration in exported models The number of destinations to which vehicles are sent in 2010 are hightly concentrated compared with 2008 Export destination Export Domestic market Destinations Important destinations (> 1000 units) 71% 88% 85% 29% 12% 15%
MAIN DESTINATION OF EXPORTS OF VEHICLES. 2010. (Units) More than 1.000 units. 2010) . Units. Among the countries for which Argentina has been gaining share in recent years, highlights the growth of Germany (almost exclusively by Amarok), Venezuela (who returned to demandvehicles, but not yet solved the problem of access to foreign exchange) Paraguay and Peru. This group grew by 211.7% in 2010 compared to 2009 On the other hand , it also important the growth in Chile and Ecuador in 2010, but in a context where the participation of Argentina as a suppler is in decline in recent years This is due mainly, to the trade agreements between the Andean countries with East Asian countries. In the first four months of 2011 exports totaled 142,773 units(+32,4 %). The fall in the graph corresponds to the normal seasonality of the series. Monthly vehicles exports
FOREIGN TRADE OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY SOURCE: ABECEB.COM Foreign trade of the automotive industry. Vehícles and parts. Millons US$ Trade balance of the industry. Vehicles and parts . Millons US$ Imports grew due to strong demand for vehicles, but mainly by the demand for auto parts In fact, the sector's trade deficit can be explained solely by the balance in auto parts - 6.309 Balance Expo Impo
IMPORT AUTO PARTS IN AUGUST 2010 REACHED THE HISTORICAL RECORD Trade balance in parts. Millons US$ In August import of parts recorded the record: U.S. $ 883.9 MM Trade balance in auto parts, share of vehicles makers. Millones US$ -1.837,4 -1.297,6 -2.855,8 -3.724,1 60,6% 87,0% 73,9% 75,8% 64,6% -6.309 Trade balance Imports Exports Realizadas por terminales Realized by other companies And by vehivle makers indirectly Realized by vehicle makers
TRADE BALANCE OF AUTO PARTS
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IMPORTS AND AUTO PARTS VEHICLE PRODUCTION Source: AFAC
AUTO PARTS EXPORTS BY DESTINATION COUNTRY
AUTOPARTS EXPORTS, by components Source: abeceb.com and INDEC
AUTO PARTS IMPORTS BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
AUTOPARTS IMPORTS, by components Source: abeceb.com and INDEC
GROWTH OF IMPORTS OF AUTO PARTS 2010 VS 2009 Source: AFAC, abeceb.com and INDEC
AUTO PARTS TRADE DEFICIT BY CATEGORY % Share % Transmission Interior equipment Electric equipment Engines Parts of engines Bodys and parts Wheels, pneumatics Brakes Buffers, steerings and suspentions Air conditioning systems, hesting and parts Other parts Plastic parts Forge and cast Rubber parts Metal parts
EXAMPLES OS INVESTMENT NEEDED AUTO PARTS Airbags and pyrotechnic pre-tensioning seat belts. Air conditioning compressor. "Green" tires Electronic Componentized (terminals, connectors). Flywheel. Braking system and its components Aluminum tubes of air conditioning. Command lights. Air conditioning Belts. Shafts. Adjustable steering column and collapsible. Hotkeys winder (micro switches). Precision Forging. ABS Instrument panel Clutches Power steering pump. Steering box. Locks. Set level and submerged fuel pump. Clutch discs. Foundry. Ignition key. Electric motors. Brake pads. Electronic sensors and dusk, rain, back. Engine injection system (pump, injectors, pipes, electronics). Door lock systems. Fuel tank cap. Hubcaps Tube filled fuel tank (plastic piece blown). Nylon fuel pipes trilayer
ARGENTINA: SCENARIOS FOR 2011 Proyected variables of the automotive industry in Argentina. Units
Vehicles production in Argentina. Medium term proyections. Units Vehicles production. Thousands units Monthly average in order to reach 864,6 thousands vehicles in 2011 70 mil u PROYECTION OF THE MAN VARIABLES OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN ARGENTINA
The automotive industry has a medium-term growth perspective.
External demand will keep rising due to growing domestic market in Brazil
and the recovery of other foreign markets (especially Latin america ) that also have
good market prospects.
At the same time, domestic demand will continue to pull the production as
economic growth will continues to growth up based in the expansion of consumption.
With this perspective, the outlook for domestic production of vehicles in 2011 put the figure at about 864.600 vehicles, with proyections to reach one million units by 2013.
However, growth in production will result in the growth in imports of auto parts (for the original market for the increased production and the aftermarket by the growth in the vehicle fleet) and therefore a trend towards the increase in the deficit of the trade balance of the industry.
For these reasons the Argentine Government is working to promote investments in order to increase local capacity in manufacturing auto parts.
ASOCIACIÓN DE FÁBRICAS ARGENTINAS DE COMPONENTES Thank you! June, 2011 Viamonte 1167, 2do. piso. Buenos Aires, ARGENTINA Tel. +54 11 4375-0516 Fax +54 11 4814-3434 E-mail: [email_address] www.afac.org.ar