A presentation from the 13th Poverty Environment Partnership meeting held in Manila, Philippines, June 2008.
Download this presentation and more from the meeting here: http://www.povertyenvironment.net/pep13
1. Food Prices and Inflation in Developing Asia Economics and Research Department Asian Development Bank 11 June 2008 The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Asian Development Bank.
2. Spike in Food Prices World Price of Thailand White Rice and Hard Red Winter Wheat Source: IMF, Primary Commodity Prices, available: www.imf.org, downloaded 9 June 2008.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9. Increasing Inflation Total Inflation Food Inflation Note: Bangladesh, India and Pakistan refer to respective fiscal year data for each country Source: CEIC Data Company, Ltd., downloaded 9 June 2008. 34.2 13.8 19.2 8.3 Viet Nam 8.4 6.3 5.7 2.3 Thailand 9.6 4.2 6.9 2.8 Philippines 15.0 8.7 10.2 7.8 Pakistan 4.7 3.2 2.7 2.0 Malaysia 14.2 11.2 8.5 6.4 Indonesia 5.0 9.5 7.4 4.4 India 21.3 5.0 8.2 4.8 China 12.6 6.6 10.5 7.2 Bangladesh YTD 08 2007 YTD 08 2007
10.
11.
12. Macroeconomic impacts: Change from baseline projections for Asia #1: food price increase only #2: food and oil price increase
13.
14.
15.
16.
17. Share of Food Expenditures to Total Expenditures (%) 36.4 37.9 36.4 45.2 5 th 47.7 49.0 50.8 58.7 4 th 54.1 54.1 56.2 63.2 3 rd 59.2 58.1 59.4 66.9 2 nd 64.6 63.3 62.0 69.3 1 st Philippines Indonesia India Bangladesh Quintile
18.
19.
20. Higher prices put upward pressure on the cost of living and thus lower the overall standard of living, particularly among the poorest.
21. How much would be required to help the poor consumers to enable them to cushion the negative effect of high food prices? 0.29 0.27 Compensation to old and new poor (% of GDP) 0.22 0.23 Compensation to old poor (% of GDP) 40.40 25.45 Number of poor after price increase (million) With a 10% food price increase 33.35 22.73 Number of poor before price increase (million) Pakistan Philippines
