1. INDIAN GDP GROWTH STORY – WHAT TO EXPECT?
K. Periasamy, M.Tech (Chem. Engg), Chennai – 600096.
There is great expectation on the growth rates of Indian GDP in the next few decades. This expectation is
based on close to double digit growth rates achieved in recent years and the experience of dramatic growth
rates achieved immediately after liberalization by Japan, South Korea and Asian Tigers about 3 to 4 decades
back, and China in the last 2 decades. But this expectation for India is a bit too optimistic due to the
following factors:
1. In Developed Countries like US, Canada, Most European Countries, Japan, Korea, etc there is
stagnation in population growth. Old age proportion is increasing fast. The concept of earning and
saving for future is fast diminishing. The pride of family with roots going back to several generations
is becoming irrelevant with more and more Inter ethnic, Inter Continental marriages / divorces /
remarriages, living together / Homo marriages, etc.
All these factors have lead to drop in demand for goods and wealth accumulation. Also there is
dramatic improvement in the social security schemes of these Countries, which obviates the need
for earning more to save more.
So, the export opportunities of low cost products and services to these Developed countries enjoyed
by Japan, Korea, Asian Tigers and China when they were growing fast, are not available at the
same level for India to exploit today.
2. When Japan, Korea and Asian Tigers were ruling the exports, not much of competition from other
cheap countries, except for China in the last 2 decades and a token presence by India / Brazil in the
last one decade.
But today, India has to compete with formidable China along with many other players like Pakistan,
Philippines, CIS Countries, Brazil, Latin American Countries, etc. apart from the established players
like Korea, who are going strong even today. May be Japan is losing steam.
3. Except China, the rest all countries whose growth rates we are trying to emulate, are much smaller
in terms of total GDP. A few big Steel Plants, a few Industries like Automobile, Ship Building, etc, a
few mass produced Consumer Goods like Radio, Camera, TV, Cell Phones, etc could dramatically
push up their GDP growth rates. But it is not the case with India whose total GDP is so high that it is
equal to that of Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Hong Kong and Bangladesh all put together.
Of course, our problem is the per capita GDP, which is nowhere near many of these countries!

2. 4. All the Countries which have grown faster have witnessed complete liberalization of their economies
with free flow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). As can be seen from the Global FDI Trend Chart
given in next page, Developed economies have been receiving major chunk of net FDI. Only in
recent years, starting from 2007 onwards there is some change and a good proportion is flowing to
Developing Countries.
Obviously FDI has played a crucial role in the growth of Developed Countries. It is obvious that it
will play an important role in the growth of Developing Countries also, wherever it flows in higher
proportions.
China and India both started their liberalization, privatization and globalization during the early 90s.
But, China went full steam ahead without any hindrance. Though it is run by Communist Party,
China completely switched over to Capitalistic policy. The Country endorsed the famous statement
“I don’t care whether it is a White cat or Black cat. It is a good cat as long as it catches mice” made
by its Premier Deng Xiaoping in 1961.
Unfortunately, India could not go full steam ahead with its liberalization and globalization. Ironically
the same Communists who practice hard core Capitalistic policies in China were the impediments in
India. They opposed anything and everything – the Liberalization, Sale of even small percentage of
PSU Shares, Computerization of Banks / Railways / Insurance, FDIs, Oil exploration by foreign
Companies, Private Investment in Steel, Cement, Power, Insurance, Banks, Roads, Ports, Airports,
Railways, etc. Obstructions had to be cleared during each step and the Government had to be
always defensive as if they are doing a sin, while clearing each and every proposal.
Due to this obstruction by the Communists and certain other inward looking Regional Parties, India
was left behind in the race for FDI. While China was receiving net of about 20 – 50 Bn USD every
year in the past 20 years, India was way behind with hardly 2 – 20 Bn USD and that too in the past
10 years only. The total net FDI of China as of 2011 was 800 Bn USD as compared to just 82 Bn
USD for India.
One would expect that at some point of time, China will no longer be competitive and the FDI will
eventually come to India. Logically it should happen. But unfortunately there is slow down in the
International FDI flows due to various reasons like, investments by cash rich Middle East Countries
in their own Countries, slow down in the overall economic growth of all Developed and Developing
countries, busting of some countries like Greece, Spain, Italy, which have lived beyond their means.
Hence, it is most unlikely that India will get FDI anywhere near that of China, unless something bad
happens to China.
So, FDIs coming into India in any big way and sustaining the growth story of India is not all that
bright.

3. 5. In recent years, we have invested in many infrastructure projects which are either slow in giving the
required results or they are not at all giving any returns for various reasons. For example, we have
made big investments in Coal / Gas Power Plants. But unfortunately we have not been able to mine
the required coal due to local objections, mainly due to improper compensation and R&R packages
offered to the project affected people. The Gas availability and gas import infrastructure did not
keep pace with the investment in Gas based power plants. The KG Basin Gas field of Reliance
Industries which was expected to produce about 85 MM CM / Day is producing just 35 MKCM/Day.
The total reserves of this Gas Field has also been downsized drastically. When we went for Coal
import, the international coal price has skyrocketed. Even if we are ready to import at that price, port
capacity is not adequate to handle additional coal import.
This has resulted in underutilization of fixed assets which ultimately affects the growth rate in the
medium term.
6. In the past 10 years, we have invested huge sum on Road Sector thinking that we are doing the best
service to our economy. But actually it is not that good as trumpeted to be. For a Country with 80%
oil import, relying on Road sector for 65% of goods movement and 85 % of passenger movement is
highly idiotic. This literally adds fuel to the fire since Road transport consumes fuel close to 2 to 3
times as that of Train and 4 to 6 times as that of Water transport, for every Ton.KM of transport.
This is bleeding the economy with about 53% of foreign exchange earned going for the import of 160
Billion USD worth of Crude Oil in 2011-12.
If only we had opened the Sethu Canal and introduced regular shipping between Haldia and Kandla
touching all the 12 major ports enroute, with feeder vessels to minor ports and Train / Road
connectivity to all ports, we could have saved atleast 25% of Crude Oil import. Another 25% Crude
Oil import could have been saved if the Rs. 1,00,000 Crore spent on National Highways in recent 10
years had been spent on Dedicated Freight Corridor along all major trunk routes of Railways.
Only for short distance passenger movements and for the last leg distribution of goods to end users,
we should rely on Road Transport. But by developing Highways and ignoring Ports / Railways we
have been continuously moving in the wrong direction leading to this alarming situation of spending
huge amounts on Crude import. This is one of the major impediments for our long term growth. The
reasons given under point 5 & 6 are the major factors responsible for the persistent high inflation in
recent years, apart from subsidies and some unsustainable welfare measures.
7. In the name of supporting the growth and the bottom strata of society at large, we follow the concept
of Consumption based subsidies as against the prudent economic policy of Production based
incentives.
We want to reduce fertilizer subsidy and kill Fertilizer Companies but increase food subsidy. We
want to give subsidy for LPG and Petrol but want to kill the Oil Companies and related capital goods

4. industries. We want to give cheap housing loans but we want to tax the Cement Plants and Steel
Plants as much as possible. We want to subsidize electricity and we want to increase royalty on
Coal. We want to keep the Bus fare low but we want to increase the Tax on Bus. These are few
examples of our policy paradox.
If the intention is to support the consumer at the bottom strata of the society, then support the
population Below Poverty Line only. Why all and sundry should enjoy subsidy which leads to over
indulgence at the top bracket of the society at the cost of the Producers of goods? This ultimately
affects the investment thereby slowing down the long term growth of the economy.
As there is no ray of hope in reducing the consumption based subsidies, it is going to pull down the
production in all spheres of economic activity. If the trend continues like this, it is going to be
Distress Greece story instead of Growth story of India!
8. There is one clear aberration in India’s growth story and that is the prominence given to Service
sector growth over that of Agriculture and Industry. The economists think that the Service sector
share has to go up in India also in line with that of Developed economies. But it must be clearly
understood that any service if it does not add value, and that too in the most efficient manner, it is a
drain on the economy and overall growth. For example, if we can manage with one Bank with
required minimum number of employees in a street, we shall do so. In the guise of giving
employment, if we open more Banks / Branches in that street and count it for Service Sector growth,
then we are cheating ourselves!
Realistically speaking not all services shall be counted for GDP. Only those services which directly
result in tangible products, those services which bring out natural resources, those services which
bring in foreign exchange, etc. only shall qualify for counting as part of GDP. All other services if
counted for GDP growth then it will only be a misconception. In that case, total GDP will not be a
true measure of the actual prosperity of the Country. Also, it will lead to the busting of the economy
as everyone will be busy managing / consulting / servicing / selling and no one will be actually
producing.
Precisely that is what is happening in India. In the name of communication growth, we have too
many Cell phones leading to wastage of precious production time which is much more than the
benefit which is supposed to be accruing to the economy by way of better communication. The
entertainment sector is growing faster than any others. The Tourism and hospitality sector (not
healthcare) based on domestic travelers, which does not contribute to GDP growth in the right
sense, is growing leaps and bounds. Despite investing in computerization, ATM, Internet Banking,
etc more and more Bank Branches are mushrooming with Tie wearing Bank brokers knocking at the
doors of every household for opening accounts or taking loans.
These are only a few examples for highlighting the fact that the Indian Growth story basking on the
lime light of Service sector growth is only a mirage.

5. 9. All the Developed economies have made sacrifices in terms of Health, Safety and Environment
during the initial phase of their development, atleast for few decades. Whether they liked it or not
and whether we are ready to emulate them or not, it is a blatant truth.
Many Countries have had slavery and hence very high productivity. Many Countries did not have
labour Union itself till they grew to a substantially advanced stage. Thames River in London was
practically carrying all the coal washery wastes and other industrial pollutants for several decades,
th
before it was cleaned in the beginning of 20 Century. Chicago sky had been pitch dark for few
decades with smoke emanating from the Chimneys of thousands of highly polluting industries. The
River waters of Europe were highly polluted before the Chemicals and Dyeing industries were
shifted to Developing countries.
Employees who were working even at the Top floor of Empire State Building in USA during
construction did not wear Helmet and Tie rope. Boiler explosions and accidents in Chemical
industries in US were so common and Governments were so callous that, the Industry Associations
themselves brought about Design and Safety standards which were later made as Codes by various
States of America. These were happening even when USA had overtaken most European Countries
and not during its initial development stage.
Unfortunately we became aware of Trade Unionism and HSE issues much earlier in our
development phase. Our Organized Sector employees could get Free Shoes and Uniforms even for
office use long before, while the Agriculturists are unable to buy proper foot wear to protect their foot
from snake bite even today. As a rule, our Organized Sector is guaranteed of subsidized Snacks and
Lunch long back. But still we have thousands of villages without even drinking water
guarantee. Our un-employed Graduates (for whose skill development lakhs of rupees has been
already spent) were eligible for unemployment tolls long before, even while there are not enough
teachers in several thousand Schools, even today.
Long back we were aware of the destruction of trees by Dams, while we are not yet aware of the
death of malnourished children. We are ready to enact Coastal Regulatory Zone (CRZ) Act, even if
it makes it almost impossible to set up any Port / Industry on the coast. It is simple common sense
that civilizations have grown along Rivers and Coasts only exploiting their advantages. We are
ready to allow the flood to destroy thousands of acres of agri / forest lands and kill thousands of
people and animal year after year. But, we will not allow the one time submergence of few thousand
acres of forest upstream of a Dam or the displacement of few hundred people, whatever may be the
compensation package. For us, principles (!) are more important than people !
We became too familiar with our Rights before knowing our Duties. Naturally our productivity is
much lower. Now, there is no scope for productivity improvement. In offices (both Private Sector
and Public Sector), Joining Parties, Leaving Parties, Transfer Parties, Promotion Parties, Retirement
Parties, Birthday Parties, Marriage Anniversaries, Father’s Day, Mother’s Day, Valentine Day, etc,

6. which were never accepted during office hours are all legitimate rights today. Trade Union Leaders
and Sports personal are officially exempted from any regular responsibilities. With increasing
awareness of such “rights”, how can we expect improvements in productivity?
10. We did not have any specific reasons to be workaholics like in some Countries (Germany, Japan,
Israel, etc.) in certain periods in history.
11. The specific advantage of very little military spending for Japan and South Korea is not available for
us. For historical reasons and geographic location, we are forced to spend about 15 to 20% of our
annual Budget for military expenses, which is good for nothing, in terms of prosperity of people. It is
not likely to come down. On the Contrary, it is likely to go up since China has global ambitions and
we can not avoid following China, atleast at some distance, even if not at par.
12. The Political stability with a strong one Party majority rule without the hassles of coalition politics is a
prerequisite for the growth of any Country. With the ever growing clout of Regional Parties in India,
single Party majority rule seems to be a far cry in future, unless a Constitutional Amendment is
brought in whereby Regional Parties shall not be allowed to contest for Parliament elections.
13. There is complete lack of understanding among the Indian intelligentsia on one of the important
factors that need to be taken into consideration while evolving development plans. That is the
combination of the following three demographic factors:
a) Very high Total Population (Next only to China)
b) Very high population Density
c) Near uniform spread across the country.
Only India is unique in having all these three factors together. China is comparable to some extent.
But China has much lower population density and the spread across the nation is not that uniform.
Now without understanding this fundamental issue, we are trying to copy the economic models of
other countries, especially the city – centric economic models. This leads to very high per capita
expenditure for creating and maintaining public amenities like Roads, Train, Water supply, Sewerage
Management, Solid Waste Management, Health Care, etc.
Since we have endless supply of people from Villages / Towns, we can not accommodate all of them
in cities and create the basic amenities required for a healthy living. We have about 10 crore
people in our 320 Cities. Even if we are able to accommodate another 10 crore people assuming all
moving from Villages still we will be left with about 70 crore people in our Villages. Whereas in
European Countries where the population is hardly few crores, they can accommodate all of them in
few dozen Cities and provide all amenities.
Hence, we must stop further growth of those cities among the 320, which do not have the natural
resources nearby for supporting further population growth. Instead we shall encourage the growth of

7. about 10,000 small towns which have natural resources by creating public amenities, and
encouraging the industries / offices to come up in these towns. We must encourage well planned
multistory complexes with self contained waste management facilities to minimize pollution and land
usage.
Unfortunately, there seems to be no one who is looking at in this direction. Everyone is convinced of
the need for Desalination Plants, Over Bridges and Underground Metros for Cities. Simply they
don’t understand the fact that these plans call for huge investments and maintenance costs, which
can not be borne by the users, even though most of them belong to middle and upper middle class.
So, it is going to result in a huge subsidy outgo for the benefit of the affluent society. Then how will
government find funds for supporting the long term development plans for rest of the country?
What is more, these are not going to solve the problem of the Cities and in fact going to aggravate
the problem as more and more people will converge into the heart of the Cities.
This urbanization policy, if not corrected is going to have a retarding effect on our growth rate. It is
neither going to guarantee a healthy and satisfactory lifestyle for even the affluent city dwellers,
despite huge support from the Government.
14. Certain Welfare measures introduced with good intentions for the benefit of the lower strata of the
society have a detrimental effect on the long term growth prospects.
A few examples are,
a) The Mahathma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme
b) Free Ration entitlements.
c) Unemployment Doles, etc.
The Rural Employment guarantee programme has almost removed the availability of 3 crore able
bodied persons from agriculture and small industries / enterprises. This is having an adverse impact
on the overall economy. The quality of the long term assets which are supposed to be created
under this program are known to be not all that good. The productivity is far too low. These are to be
expected in such massive national level programs. After sometime, if we stop this program, people
will find it difficult to do hard work to give better productivity as they will be used to an easy life style.
The same thing is applicable for Free Ration entitlements and Unemployment Doles.
These literally kill the initiative for working to earn and stand on their own legs. When many around
you do the same, you don’t feel ashamed of living like a parasite.
So, these kind of welfare measures though seem to be right in the beginning will turn out to be a bad
prescription for both the beneficiaries and the Nation in the long run. Since we have already
launched many such schemes and there is clamor for introducing new schemes every year, it will
certainly pull down the long term growth prospects.

8. 15. Forest Rights to Tribal People which is almost through, though looking noble from the perspective of
justice done to those persons who have been wronged for long years, it is not going to do anything
good, either for them or to the country. This is because, with this, they will be destined to live in
forests only with limited scope for further development. The mineral resources available in those
regions also can not be exploited for ever. With the result, the Nation as a whole will loose.
Instead of Forest Rights the Tribal people can be made as partners of development and moved out
of forest by making them shareholders and giving them employment. They can be brought to main
stream society and better standard of living can be provided to them. The forest can be preserved
with only judicious allotment of forest lands for unavoidable reasons.
The alternate route proposed above is not likely to be accepted at this stage and hence the fate of
most tribal people who constitute about 8% of Indian population is sealed within the boundaries of
forests. Along with that, the fate of some of the important projects which are in the fringe of these
forest areas are also sealed for ever. It is surprising to note that in the name of conservation and
freedom of people to choose their life, we want to keep some Tribals as “protected” and confine
them to the forests. Is it a right approach? Atleast if we give opportunity for them to mingle with
others, at some point they will come to mainstream society.
16. As part of accelerating the maturity of our Democracy, we have embarked on empowering the
citizens with sweeping powers like Right to Information Act, Right to decide on Development
Projects to Local Panchayats, Right to prosecute anyone (Lokpal), etc. All these look prima facie
grandiose and put Indian Democracy in the Top echelons in the league of nations. But the bottom
line will be slow down in the growth of Human Development Index (HDI). Though the Freedom of
expression, which is one of the parameters of development will go up, most of the remaining
parameters will come down, thereby pulling down the overall development of the masses.
For example in deciding a particular development project, supposing out of say 10 Panchayats
involved, one Panchayat does not give the consent. Is it justified to scrap the project? Also, the
decisions taken by Local Bodies, how informed and how justified they could be, in a complex outlook
from Social, Political, Technical, Economical, Environmental, and Sustainable stand points. Even
the Experts concerned are unable to strike a consensus and they go by majority opinion. Even court
judgments which are based on clearly written down Laws are based on simple numerical majority.
In such a situation, if we do not go by simple majority, the dictum of Democracy, and want to take on
board each and everyone or atleast want to take the consent of vast majority, say 80%, as proposed
in the Resettlement and Rehabilitation Act, then no development decision can be taken. It will lead
to stagnation.
Similarly in the name of strengthening Democracy by improving transparency in governance, we
have opened up a Pandora’s box in the form of RTI Act. Now anyone can get information on any

9. decision taken in the past and question its validity today. In the public, all can not appreciate the fact
that decisions are taken based on the limited time and limited data available at that time. The context
and prospects prevailing at that time could be entirely different from what they are today.
Also when collective decisions are taken, some would have agreed and some would have
disagreed. If all these information are made public then will it not create an impression as if there is
confusion and difference of opinion on anything and everything. Also the freedom of the decision
makers will be jeopardized.
With the result of all these issues, everyone will try to tread the best route, and that is avoid taking
decisions, keep quiet in meetings, and maintain status quo as far possible! Of late, that is what is
happening leading to indecisiveness everywhere.
17. There seems to be no reckoning of the fact that we are heading for another Foreign exchange crisis
with galloping import surges lead by Crude Oil imports. It is eating about 50% of our hard earned
foreign exchange.
There is an obvious alternate for Petroleum products in the form of Ethanol. We are least bothered
about it. We do not want to increase the purchase price of Ethanol from Rs. 27 per litre which is
there for few years now, even while the Crude price has nearly doubled in this period. No one really
knows why? Simply it is not there in the agenda.
Similarly the edible oil import is also growing at an alarming rate. But there is no major policy
intervention to boost the production of oil seeds.
We have enough opportunities to boost the production of both Sugarcane (for Ethanol) and oil seeds
(for Edible oil). Even if it takes some time to bring more areas under irrigation, we can scientifically
identify which areas are good for which crop and encourage those crops with suitable policy
interventions. For example the yield of Sugarcane in South India is exceptionally higher compared
to North India. So, we can minimize rice growth in South India and go for Sugarcane. Wheat can be
brought from North India and substituted for Rice, which also helps in balanced diet.
18. All countries which have grown faster than others have educated the boys and girls equally. More
importantly, the girls also have come out of the house and utilized their knowledge for the
development of their country. But in India, most of the girls, especially the upper middle class,
though get educated in professional colleges, utilizing the best of facilities offered by these Institutes
( both private and public), do not utilize their professional knowledge. After marriage majority of the
girls are confined to the house. Whether it is good or bad for a contended and happy social life for
the entire family is a different story. But it does not support the economic growth especially when
close to 50% of higher education seats are cornered by the girls.
To this extent, the growth rates of other countries can not be replicated.

10. 19. Most of the countries which have grown faster than others have had political stability with mostly
single Party rule for long years. So, the decisions could be taken with long term growth of the nation
in mind, without the fear of losing elections. There was no need for populist policies.
Also decisions could be taken without much of opposition criticisms, even when some decisions
went wrong. Being single Party Governments, mostly with brutal majority, there was no need to
consult any Coalition Partners or Provincial Governments. In those days, the Provincial / State
Governments were not strong enough to question the Central / Federal Governments. Above all, in
those days, there were no media interferences in policy making or influence of media disclosures on
Parliamentary discussions in one way or the other. All these went well for quick decision making with
need for consultations with concerned experts / officials only.
But today, we need to consult Coalition Partners / Opposition Parties / Media / NGOs / Eminent
Citizens / Trade Unions / Caste Organisations / Regulatory Bodies / Industry Bodies / Agricultural
Associations, etc. Obviously, there will be no single decision which will be acceptable to all. It will be
a much delayed, mutilated, mixed and confused compromise formula, which will be naturally far from
what was originally drafted by the experts / officials / politicians concerned. It will be like too many
cooks spoiling the broth. The main point is that, the original draft would have been the handiwork of
the experts concerned and it would have given the right direction. Now, the final draft, in all
probabilities will be directionless !
In fact, the problem of Coalition politics is there throughout the world and it is one of the major
impediments for the economic growth of the world as a whole.
20. The influence of the media, especially the Television and Internet is all pervasive. These could
create visual sensations far and wide in short time. Right or wrong, it is almost impossible to take
decisions or give directions ignoring these media responses. Even Courts which are supposed to be
immune to such media responses are finding it difficult to keep away from the media influence. In
normal course, this should not be a bad idea.
But unfortunately, as a general rule, there is a general misconception among the media that the
public at large like to hear and see only the negative / exceptional / different / accidental / unique
events and opinions, which are obviously in minority, and not the positive / routine / useful /
developmental / generic events and opinions which are in majority.
The general public is also not able to appreciate the fact that, only the exceptional incidents and
opinions have news value for the media and not the general ones. Moreover, the media needs to
create some hype and exaggerate the events / discussions / opinions. Especially with the advent of
24 Hours News Channels, with the need for giving “Breaking News” every time, it has become

11. almost impossible for the media to run without creating some news with some controversy so that it
can be blown out of proportions and stretched till something else crops up.
With the bombardment of repeated negative news items and minority opinions, unknowingly the
people have become pessimistic and anti-establishment. They do not want to trust any Government
action, good or bad. In their views it is all malicious, wrong, unwanted, anti people and intended
purely for the benefit of the Politicians / Officials who initiate the action !
The fillip side of the coin is that, some of the TV Channels / Print media which are run by the Ruling
Political Parties give only the positive sides, with their share of exaggerations added, that their
credibility is totally lost.
Under these circumstances the Governments have to face a hostile media. There seems to be no
scope for any improvement in the near future. This will invariably put the governments on the
defensive all the while. With the result, on any policy matters, we will have one step forward and one
step backward, even if not two steps backward.
This is true in many of the countries throughout the world. In fact, this is one of the reasons why
there is complete dissatisfaction on all political parties. This has lead to the mushrooming of new
political parties with regional aspirations. So, no single Party could get majority. This has resulted in
Coalition Governments in many countries in recent years.
21. Some countries have had or still have some sort of Authoritarian Governments ( Military, Single
Party, Dictatorship, Royal, Judiciary, etc) in the initial phase of development. These include South
Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Germany, Cuba, All Middle East Countries, etc. But we can never think
of anything near to such a situation until we get into Coalition mess consecutively for 3 or 4 times !
All these negative factors listed above put together will pull down the positive factors like High proportion of
young working age population, English Fluency among the younger generation, Political stability, reasonably
good climatic conditions, reasonably good rainfall, reasonably plain land suitable for agriculture, probability
for FDIs to come in chasing the burgeoning Middle class, etc, etc.
With the result, in my opinion, we can not aim for Double digit growth rates any longer, as China could do for
nearly 2 decades. The practical GDP Growth rates for the next five decades along with the projected
population growth rate and per capita GDP are given in the Table attached herewith.
If we have to target for the double digit growth rates, then all the aberrations mentioned above shall be
removed, the priorities shall be altered and political framework shall be modified as early as possible.

12. If we appreciate the validity of the above points in the right perspective and make amends on top priority, as
most of it are in our hands, we still have chance to improve our growth rates. Especially, if we can fill up the
market gap which is expected to be offered by China in the next few years due to tightening of the Pollution
Control Laws, HSE, Productivity decline due to affluence, new found Internet Freedom, etc. If we do not fill
up this gap it will be filled up by other emerging economies and we will be left behind once again. The FDI
will flow where there is visibility and to start with, this visibility comes from substantial export growth.
&&&&&&&
INDIA - PROJECTED GDP GROWTH
S. Year GDP PROJECTION Projected Population, Projected per
No Annual Crores capita GDP, Rs
Population
Growth
Rate, %
From To Avg. From To From To From To
Growth
Rate, % Rs.Cr. Rs.Cr.
1 2012 2022 7.0 8,500,000 16,721,000 1.25 122 138 69,672 121,046
2 2022 2032 6.0 16,721,000 29,945,000 1.00 138 153 121,046 196,246
3 2032 2042 5.0 29,945,000 48,777,000 0.65 153 163 196,246 299,608
4 2042 2052 4.0 48,777,000 72,202,000 0.35 163 169 299,608 428,266
5 2052 2062 3.5 72,202,000 101,848,000 0.20 169 172 428,266 592,161