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Pa resources q3 2012 presentation_7 nov 2012
1. Third Quarter 2012
Bo Askvik, President & CEO
Nicolas Adlercreutz, CFO
Stockholm, 7 November 2012
2. Presentation outline
1 Q3 highlights 2 Recapitalisation proposal 3 Way forward - business plan
» Operational recent » Equity increase of SEK 1,700 » Financial strength combined
developments million with farm-out transactions
» Financial result in line with » Net debt reduced to SEK 1,900 » Development of 30 Mmboe at
market expectations milion USD 9/boe in operated assets
» Asset impairment of SEK 1,495 » Equity post recapitalisation » Asset revaluation – upside
million transaction approx. SEK 2,500 potential
million
2
3. Third quarter – Operational update
HIGHLIGHTS
• Alen field development progressing according to plan,
targeting first production in 2H 2013
• Block I targets for exploration and appraisal drilling in
2013 in progress
• Zarat permit extended until July 2015, with Elyssa
appraisal well scheduled in 2013, farm-out activities
on-going
• Appraisal requirements and development options are
evaluated on Danish 12/06 – parallel with efforts to
locate available rig continues. Initiated discussions with
Maersk for infrastructure tie back
• Awarded provisional UKCS licence - Block 22/19a -
containing undeveloped Fiddich gas/condensate field
(1984) and adjacent to PAR-operated Block 22/18c
3
4. Production and sales Ytd 2012
Average production per country (bopd)
12000
bopd Ytd 2012 Q3 2012 Oct. 2012
Congo: Azurite EG: Aseng Tunisia: Didon & Onshore
West Africa 5,700 5,600 5,100
10000
8000 North Africa 2,300 2,100 2,100
6000
Group Total 8,000 7,700 7,200
4000
2000
0
Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 • ASENG: New production level of 60,000-63,000
bopd to maximise reservoir recovery
Average sales price (USD/bbl)
• AZURITE: Sidetrack preparations ongoing,
140 PA Resources Brent operations begun in Q4 and expected to last
117 113
119 several months
120 106 109 108 109
120 • TUNISIA: Onshore fields are back in production
100 85 109 109 109
79 78
106 104 after the temporary shut down in Aug/Sep
77 97
80
78
82 • PRICE: PA Resources realised price equal to
60 71 72 Brent average for the quarter
40
20
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012
4
6. Q3 impairments and tax adjustments
Impairments Tax adjustments
• Total one-off and non-cash impairment charges • Previously unreported deferred tax liabilities
and write downs in Q3 totalled SEK 1,495 million pertaining to periods before 2011 have been
adjusted by SEK 445 million and reported directly
• The Marine XIV licence in the Republic of Congo against share-holders' equity for the opening
was relinquished in early October, resulting in a balance of 2011
write down of approximately SEK 174 million
• New opening balance of equity 2012
• The annual impairment test performed and SEK 2,816 million
assets in the Republic of Congo impaired,
mainly as a result of a revision of Azurite field’s • Previously unreported deferred tax assets in the
recoverable reserves parent company reduced income taxes in Q3 by
SEK 125 million
• Azurite/Mer Profonde Sud impairment of SEK
1,321 million. Azurite future book value only new
sidetrack/well.
6
7. Earnings and key ratios
Q3 Q2 Jan-Sep Jan -Sep
2012 2012 2012 2011 KEY COMMENTS Q3 vs Q2
Production (bopd) 7,700 8,000 8,100 8,700 • Lower production lowered
revenue
Oil price (USD/barrel) 109 109 113 103
• Stable OPEX, to a large extent
fixed costs
Revenue (SEK million) 525 542 1,717 1,619 • EBITDA margin of 55.7%
EBITDA (SEK million) 292 302 990 989
• Depreciation somewhat lower
due to lower production
EBITDA margin 55.7% 55.7% 57.6% 61.1% • Financial net strengthened due
Profit before tax 64 -23 107 147 to fx effects and both lower
(SEK million) * interest and amortized cost
Profit for the period -15 -118 -166 -229 • Tax/EBITDA 27% in Q3
(SEK million)*
Earnings per share (SEK) -2.17 -0.33 -2.55 -0.36
* Figures 2012 exclude non-cash, one-off write downs and impairment charges of SEK 1.495million
(SEK 1.370 million after tax) in Q3, SEK 92 million in Q2 and SEK 1.585 million (SEK 1.460 million
after tax) in the nine- month period.
7
8. Cash flow
Q3 Q2 Jan-Sep Jan-Sep
KEY COMMENTS
SEK million 2012 2012 2012 2011
Operating cash flow 64 425 664 917 • Operating cash flow of SEK 64
million in Q3
of which income 0 -2 -5 -38
taxes paid
• Continued low capex spending,
mainly on Aseng and Alen
CAPEX -16 -21 -69 -1,478 development in EG
Financing activities -51 -570 -634 -445
Net cash flow -2 -167 -39 -1,005
8
9. Current debt situation
Covenants and net debt KEY COMMENTS
Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Covenant
• Recapitalisation to restore Equity
Book Equity (SEK million) 956 3,064 2,994 >2,000
and Book equity/Capital employed
Book Equity to above requirement in covenants
22% 47% 43% >40%
Capital Employed
• Waiver applications for covenants
Net debt (SEK million) 3,410 3,503 3,803 N/A
submitted subject to recapitalisation
• New equity post recapitalisation of
approx. SEK 2,500 million
9
10. Capex forecast 2012/2013
Capex 2011 - 2013 KEY COMMENTS
1 800 • 2012 forecast of SEK 240-375 million unchanged
1,613 Actual Forecasted
1 600
• Capex of SEK 16 million in Q3 and SEK 69 million
1 400 for nine-month period 2012
1 200
• Azurite sidetrack preparations and drilling imminent
MSEK
1 000
• 2013 forecast SEK 250-380 million
800
600
400 240 - 375 250-380
Drilling program/planned wells 2012-2014
200
Tunisia: Zarat Elyssa 2013 Appraisal/1
0 69
2011 2012 2013 Tunisia: Makthar 2014 Exploration/1
Congo: MPS Azurite Q4 2012 Sidetrack/1
Appraisal/
EG: Block I Block I 2013
exploration/1
EG: Block H Aleta Q4 2012/2013 Exploration/1
DK: 12/06 Lille John 2013/2014 Appraisal/1
10
12. Development 2010–2012: Azurite set-back
Production CAPEX
20 000 6 000
5 000
15 000
Average bopd
4 000
MSEK
10 000 3 000
2 000
5 000
1 000
0 0
2010 2011 2012 YTD 2010-2012 2010-2012E
2010 Strategic Plan Actual Production 2010 Strategic Plan Actual CAPEX
Operating cash flow*
• Production 2012 YTD turned out almost 10,000 boepd
4 000
below the plan set fourth in 2010 – mainly due to Azurite
3 500
– Negative operating cash flow effect of more than
3 000 SEK 2.9 billion 2010-2012 YTD*
2 500
• Other assets – especially Aseng – have performed in line
MSEK
2 000 or above plan
1 500
• Planned capex delayed due to cash flow constraints
1 000
500 • Operating cash flow** from producing assets remains
0 strong – SEK 664 million 2012 YTD
2010-2012 2010-2012E
*) Net entitlement. Based on an oil price of USD 80/bbl
2010 Strategic Plan Actual Operating Cash Flow **) Operating cash flow pre capex, post tax
12
13. Indebtedness too high given current asset base
Background Net debt development
5 200%
Poor Azurite performance 4,0
4 3,7 3,7 3,8
Net debt/equity (%)
3,5 3,5 3,4 150%
Net debt (SEKm)
3,1 3,2
3 2,8
2,5
127% 100%
Accelerated amortizations 122% 114% 140%
2
85% 77% 72%
60% 68% 50%
1 52%
41%
Weak balance sheet
0 0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012
Perceived inability to
develop assets Net debt of which convertible bonds Net debt*/equity
*) Includes convertible bonds, before impairment
Unfavourable • Underlying cash flow from production stable but
conditions for net indebtedness following Azurite set-back too
credit facilities high and liquidity has become a constraint
Difficulty to
Low perceived • Recapitalisation to strengthen balance sheet
make asset critical to avoid financial distress
value of assets
transactions
Price pressure
on all traded
instruments
13
14. Solution: Recapitalisation for future growth
Board of Directors propose a two-step transaction strengthening equity with SEK 1.7 billion
1 Exchange offer Ownership Outcome
8%
» Offer to convertible bondholders » Enables maintenance capex
to exchange their convertible and partial repayment of the
bonds for newly issued shares 92%
SEK bond maturing in 2013
at SEK 0.15 Current Convertible » Assuming available debt
shareholders bondholders
financing, ability to develop
prioritised assets and
2 Righs issue Ownership secure continued production
growth
» Fully underwritten rights issue 4%
24% » Increased ability to complete
of approx. SEK 700 million asset transactions
(conditional upon ~90% 48%
acceptance in the exchange 24%
offer) at SEK 0.10 (~50% Current Convertible
directed to old equityholders and shareholders bondholders
~50% to convertible Convertible Shareholders’ share
bondholders’ of new issue
bondholders) share of new issue
» Post transaction – continue to benefit from operating cash flow and development potential inherent
in assets primarily in North Africa and the North Sea
14
15. Terms of exchange offer and new share issue
1 Exchange offer
• Exchange one (1) convertible bond of nominal value including accrued
Exchange interest of SEK 17.40 for 116 new shares at SEK 0.15 per share
offer
• Maximum of 7.1 billion new shares (increase in equity of SEK 1.1 billion)
2 Rights issue approx. SEK 700 million (assuming 100% acceptance in exchange offer)
Rights issue to • Rights issue directed to the current shareholders of approx.
current SEK 350 million at SEK 0.10 per share
shareholders
Rights issue to • Rights issue directed to holders of shares from convertible exchange offer
convertible of approx. SEK 350 million at 0.10 per share
bondholders
15
16. PA Resources way forward – business plan
» Additional production wells and maintenance investments financed
Current producing by cash flow post proposed transactions
assets generates
cash flow » Debt service including repayment/refinancing of the SEK bond
maturing in 2013 and planned amortizations
» Allows for development of prioritised assets
Capex plan
• EG/Block I: Upside on Aseng & Diega
requires limited
net debt increase • Denmark: Lille John & Broder Tuck
• Tunisia: Zarat and Elyssa
Farm-outs of » Reduces exposure to single fields and capex spending
significant stakes
in key assets • Danish 12/06 and Tunisian Zarat permit
Realize » Proposed refinancing enables development of existing operated
asset value assets as well as asset transactions
16
17. Zarat Field – Largest undeveloped discovery in Tunisia
1990 1992 1995 2005 2010-2011 2011-2012 2013 2013-2017 2017/2018
Permit Award Discovery Appraisal Well PA Acquisition ZRT-N1 Appraisal POD Update, Unitisation UPOD, UUOA Development First production
• c. 80 mmbbl liquids
Outlook - Forward Plan
Gross
Recoverable • c. 600 Bscf gas incl. inerts » Tunisian gas deficit growing – more gas projects required
Volumes • Largest undeveloped discovery in Tunisia with Elyssa & Zarat as clear candidates
» Submit Unit Plan of Development by Q1 2013
• c. 60% of field lies in Zarat Permit » Agree unitisation principles with Joint Oil Block
Unitisation » Actively participate in Government infrastructure initiative
• c. 40% in Joint Oil Block
Ownership & • Zarat Permit: PA Resources 100% Development Concept
Operatorship • Joint Oil Block: Sonde 100%
• El Gueria fm reservoir
Subsurface • 30m oil rim with > 70m rich gas cap
Aspects • 40° API oil, 53° API condensate
• Significant inert component in gas
• 40,000 bopd initial oil/cond. rate
• 200 mmscf/d initial raw gas rate
Facilities and • 9 producer wells, 4 gas injectors
Development • Objective to maximise liquid recovery
Aspects • Plan assumes a 7yr gas recycling phase
• Followed by gas cap blowdown
• 25yr + production life
17
18. Elyssa – Appraisal well in 2013
1974 1992 2005 2006/2007 2010 2013 2014 2014-2016 2016
Discovery Appraisal Well PA Acquisition Appraisal Well + ST New 3D Seismic ELY-4 Appraisal Well POD Development First Production
Outlook - Forward Plan
Gross • c. 50 mmboe
Recoverable • Mainly gas resources » Tunisian gas deficit growing – more gas projects
Volumes • Small quantity of oil/condensate required with Elyssa & Zarat as clear candidates
» Seismic re-interpretation & modeling by end 2012
Ownership & » Drill appraisal well in 2013
• PA Resources 100%
Operatorship
Development Concept
• Asymmetric anticline structure
• Gas & oil accumulation in Vascus Cherahil
Subsurface and Bireno reservoirs
Aspects • 36-37° API oil
• Low inert, c. 16% assumed
• 50 m water depth
Facilities and • 6 production wells
Development • Development via tie-back
Aspects • c. 3,000 bopd initial oil/cond rate
• c. 120 mmscf/d initial raw gas rate
18
19. Denmark 12/06 – 2011 discoveries and way forward
PA Resources Operator with 64%
Broder Tuck
• High quality Middle Jurassic reservoir proved by wells
• Mid to high case assessment of c. 25-50 mmboe gross
of contingent resources including liquids
• Commercialisation studies continues through 2012
• Initiated discussions with Maersk for infrastructure tie back
12/06 Broder Tuck-2
• Assumed production start in 2017
Lille John Lille John-1
• Wells established 35 API oil in Miocene sandstone
at c. 900m – exceptionally light oil for shallow depth
• Work focused on Miocene prospect inventory B20008-73
• Remaining deeper potential likely – Chalk remains and
well result upgrades Middle Jurassic
• 2012 work programme to reprocess 3D to determine
prospect inventory and appraisal well location
Licence Group: Operator PA Resources (64%), Danish
• Drilling project management tendered and efforts to locate North Sea Fund (20%), Spyker Energy (8%), Danoil (8%)
available rig continues
• Initiated discussions with Maersk for infrastructure tie back
• Assumed production start in 2016
19
20. Reserves and Resources for development
2P Contingent Risked Prospective
MMboe
Reserves Resources Resources
Block I, Block H, MPS,
Didon, Azurite, Aseng Block I, MPS, 12/06, Marine XIV, Zarat permit,
Assets
liquids, Alen, Zarat field Marine XIV, Zarat permit, Jelma, Makthar, Jenein
included
liquids, DST Netherlands Center, Gita, 12/06, Block
8, Netherlands, UK
2011.12.31 60.2 145 409
Present PAR
working interest
Tunisia: Zarat 43.9 29.3
Tunisia: Elyssa 42.2
Denmark: Lille John 9.1 9.1
Denmark: Broder Tuck 21.4
Total 43.9 102.2 9.1
Developed Net after farm-out 8.8 21.5 2.2
20
21. Prioritised investments/projects 2013-2018
Farm-out
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Total
target
Development Projects
Producing Fields 240 160 140 30 0 0 570 • CAPEX forecast
assumes farm-out of
Denmark: 12/06 Field 130 220 310 180 0 0 840 64% to 15% prioritised assets
Tunisia: Zarat Field 210 500 1 060 680 230 0 2 680 100% to 20% • Maintenance CAPEX of
producing fields included
Exploration 110 70 0 0 0 0 180
CAPEX Forecast (MSEK) 690 950 1 510 890 230 0 4 270
PAR Carry Estimate 520 680 970 300 0 0 2 470
Net CAPEX (MSEK) 170 270 540 590 230 0 1 800
Total assets
Production and reserves under development
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Reserves*
Reserves in producing fields
(MMBOE) 12.8 10.9 8.9 7.6 6.2 5.0
Reserves in assets to be
developed (MMBOE) 32.5 32.5 32.5 30.3 27.5 23.2
Total 45.3 43.4 41.4 37.9 33.7 28.2
Production (boepd)*
Working interest 6,300 5,300 5,400 9,500 11,500 15,000
*) Assuming farm-outs
Note: Assumes an oil price of 110 USD/bbl, USD/SEK of 6.53 and a discount factor of 10%
21
22. Expected outcome of business plan
Production and cash flow* development Net debt development
8 160%
2 000 1,820 20 000
Net debt and equity (SEKbn)
6 120%
1 500 15 000 5,0
Net debt/equity (%)
Production (boepd)
86%
Cash flow (SEKm)
76% 72%
4 68% 3,6 80%
1 000 840 10 000 2,8
2,5 2,4 2,4
2,1 2,0 33%
1,7 1,8
2 1,2 40%
500 5 000
180
60
0 -13% 0%
0 0
-100 -0,6
-500 -270 -5 000 -2 -40%
2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e
Equity Net debt Net debt/equity
Net cash flow Production
*) Cash flow post capex, G&A and interest payments
22
23. Expected outcome of business plan
Estimated development of reserves (MMBOE)
HIGHLIGHTS:
40
35 • Continued production from currently producing
30 assets
25
30 MMBOE • Investments in 2013-2015 adds new production
20
and long-term cash flow – 30 mmboe developed
15
to production
10
5 • Farm-outs critical to reduce risk and capex
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 • Further investments in 2016-2017
Producing Fields Fields to be developed to maintain and add new production
• Planned production start for Lille John and
Production development (boepd) Elyssa in 2016 followed by Broder Tuck and
Block I in 2017 and Zarat field in 2018
17 500
15 000
12 500
10 000
7 500
5 000
2 500
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Producing Fields Fields to be developed
23
24. CAPEX forecast – total and per barrel
CAPEX
1 800
1 600 CAPEX HIGHLIGHTS:
1 400
1 200 • Development of prioritised key assets and
continued selective exploration activities
MSEK
1 000
800
• 30 MMBOE to be developed to producing
600
reserves
400
200 • Total capex forecast of SEK 1.8 billion
0
• Development capex of approx. USD 9/boe
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
CAPEX/Produced barrel 2018E
80
70
60
50
USD/bbl
40
30
20
10 Cost per developed boe
0
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2010
2011
24
25. Prioritised assets – value through farm-outs
Asset valuation before and after farm-outs
After Farm -outs KEY COMMENTS:
Reserves & Current Current
Contingent Working PAR Working PAR • Farm-out of prioritised assets to reach
Resources Book Value Interest Valuation Interest Valuation preferred working interest level and
North Africa (mmboe) (MSEK) (%) (MSEK) (%) (MSEK) reduce risk on individual assets
Didon* 100,0% 50,0%
DST* 75,0% 75,0%
• Value per barrel to be increased from
Zarat
120 2 807
100,0%
8 300
20,0%
3 000 $4/boe in current book value to $19/boe
Elyssa 100,0% 20,0% on prioritised assets after development
Total 120 2 807 8 300 3 000 and farm-outs
• Upside potential from current book
West Africa
values in West Africa and North Sea
Azurite* 35,0% 35,0%
13 707 2 100 2 100 development assets
Block I* 5,7% 5,7%
Total 13 707 2 100 2 100 • Large portion of value in North African
assets
North Sea
ASSUMPTIONS FOR VALUATION:
12/06, Broder Tuck
40 384 64,0% 3 100 15,0% 1 100
12/06, Lille John • Reserve data from third party reports
Total 40 384 3 100 1 100
• Business plan as previously presented
Exploration assets Oil price of 110 USD/bbl
Other Assets, incl. • USD/SEK of 6.53
441** 1 693 - 2 300 - 2 300
Exploration**
Total 441** 1 693 2 300 2 300 • Cash flow discounted at 10%
Total 5 591 15 800 8 500
*) Producing assets
**) Includes prospective resources
25
26. Asset valuation – summary
10
8,5
8.5
8
2,3
SEK billion
6 5,6
6.2
Total equity of SEK ~1.9 billion
1,7
3,9
4 0.1***
0.7**
1,6
1.1**
2 2.3
2,3 2,3 1.9**
0
Book values PAR valuation Net debt New equity from New equity from Old equity** Upside to NAV
assuming farm- convertible rights issue
outs* bondholders
Asset valuation Upside potential to business plan
Producing assets Assets to New equity from
Net debt post New equity from Old equity Upside potential
be developed rights issue
transactions convertible bondholders
Exploration assets
*) Based on reserve data from third party reports, the business plan as presented on the previous pages, an oil price of 110 USD/bbl, USD/SEK of
6.53 and a discount factor of 10%
**) Assumes 100% acceptance in the exchange offer
***) Based on a share price of SEK 0.14, i.e. the theoretical share price post transactions
26
27. Summary and outlook
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS:
• Cash flow from current production
• Financial capacity to finance development
capex according to plan and repay/refinance
the SEK bond due in 2013
• Development of 30 MMBOE in existing
reserves adding long-term production growth
expected to result in net cash position in 2018
of SEK 0.6 billion
• Value in asset portfolio secured and
strengthens position for future farm-outs and
transactions
27