Gary Dolphin, Market Outlook Manager, discusses the possible routes to meeting the 2020 environmental targets and how these might be delivered under the 4 future energy scenarios.

1. Twitter: #ukenergy
email: transmission.ukfes@nationalgrid.com
2020 Signposts
Gary Dolphin: Market Outlook Manager

2. Our scenarios
Low Carbon Life
Slow ProgressionNo Progression
Gone Green
2020:
15% of UK final energy
consumption from
renewable sources
Renewable
Energy Target

3. Renewable energy
Gone Green
Total: 15%
Electricity:
34.5%
Heating:
10.5%
Transport:
7.9%
20202013
Total: 5.2%
Electricity:
13.9%
Heating:
2.8%
Transport:
4.4%
Source: DECC Energy Trends: June 2014 Special feature – Renewable energy in 2013

4. Alternative “Silver Bullet Gone Greens”?
Currently 0.5m homes
All Solar?
Extra 50 GW offshore
Extra 40 GW (11 Drax)
Extra 42 m homes
All Wind?
Currently 10.5 GW
All
Biomass?
Currently 2 GW

5. “Challenging but achievable”
Gone Green: meeting the renewable energy target on time

6. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CapacityGW
Total Onshore Total Offshore
Historical Wind Capacity
Total Offshore:
3.5 GW
Total Onshore:
7 GW

7. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CapacityGW
Total Onshore Total Offshore
2014 Gone Green – Wind Capacity
Total
Offshore:
12.5 GWTotal
Onshore:
14 GW
Gone Green
2020
Total Wind:
26.5 GW
Additional Offshore: 9 GW
Additional Onshore: 7 GW

8. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CapacityGW
Total Wind Linear (Total Wind)
Trends - Linear
Total: 13 GW
Total: 25 GW
26.5 GW

9. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CapacityGW
Total Wind Poly. (Total Wind)
Trends – Second order polynomial
Total: 26 GW
26.5 GW
y = ax2
+bx + c

10. Gone Green 2014 Build rates – GW per year
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CapacityGW/year
Onshore build rate Offshore build rate
1 – 1.25 GW/yr
2.75 – 4 GW/yr

11. Gone Green 2014 Build rates – GW per year
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CapacityGW/year
Onshore build rate Offshore build rate Gone Green2013 build rate (combined)
China
20 GW/yr
USA
13 GW/yr

12. 0
5
10
15
20
25
CapacityGW
Current Tx Offshore Wind Offshore Wind req't at 2020
11.7
3.4
Transmission Offshore Wind
8.3
Source: Transmission Entry Capacity Register
Additional Offshore: 9 GW
Transmission connected: 8.3 GW

13. Transmission Offshore Wind
0
5
10
15
20
25
CapacityGW
Scoping Awaiting Consents Consents Approved
Under Construction Current Tx Offshore Wind Offshore Wind req't at 2020
3.4 0.7
4
11.2
23.6
8.3
∑40 GW

14. 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
I
H
G
F
E
D
C
B
A
Months
OffshoreWindprojects
Awaiting consents Consents approved Under construction
Offshore Wind project timelines
18 months 30 months 24 months Total: 72 months

15. 0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CapacityGW
Operational Under Construction
Consents Approved Awaiting Consents
Gone Green Tx Offshore Wind req't @ 2020
Offshore wind requirement: met
24 months 30 months 24 months

16. 0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CapacityGW
Operational Under Construction
Consents Approved Awaiting Consents
Gone Green Tx Offshore Wind req't @ 2020
Signposts

17. Gone Green
“More money available”
“More energy
infrastructure”
“More disposable
income”
“Focus on environmental
sustainability”
“Policy and regulation is strong, consistent and effective”
“Clear route to achieving a sustainable future”
“Society is engaged”
“High technological
innovation”
Gone Green is the art of the possible

18. Gone Green
“Challenging but achievable”

19. In summary
Gone Green remains
“challenging but achievable”
Progress is required over the next 12
to 24 months
We need your help to create the most
robust and plausible range of
scenarios
London Array Ltd

20. Twitter: #ukenergy
email: transmission.ukfes@nationalgrid.com
2020 Signposts
Gary Dolphin: Market Outlook Manager