2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Demand

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How do the 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios model future energy demand? Nigel Fox looks at projections for heating, lighting, domestic, industrial and commercial demand.

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2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Demand

  1. 1. Twitter: #ukenergy email: transmission.ukfes@nationalgrid.com Energy Demand Nigel Fox: Energy Demand Manager
  2. 2. 2 Policy & Incentives major driver of change Consumer affordability & preferences Industry Commercial 2042
  3. 3. Feel the Heat…  Nearly half the energy we use is used for heating and heat is a major component in our scenarios  Our models focus on the residential sector – residential heat is the largest component of natural gas demand  Our modelling has examined insulation, boilers, heat pumps and district heating Non Heat 15% Heat 44% Transport 41% Energy Use 2011 Source: DECC
  4. 4. Residential insulation savings, much has been achieved to date 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Year GG: Higher uptake of solid wall insulation NP: Lower uptake of insulation generally LCL/SP: Higher uptake of cavity and loft insulation Significant savings already achieved primarily through government schemes 35TWh/a 12 TWH Success of ECO and Green Deal crucial to deliver GG savings HeatSavingTWh/yr
  5. 5. Gas heating dominates residential sector; boiler replacement dominates heat savings 0 20 40 60 80 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035Loft insulation Cavity wall insulation Solid Wall insulation Boilers Boiler replacement dominates heat savings in all scenarios Savings much > than NP Comfort factor cannot be ignored HeatSavingTWh/yr Gone Green Policy has been key in delivering boiler savings
  6. 6. New Houses – annual heat demand, with great scope for reductions in the future 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Year GG/SP: Passivhaus standards reached by 2030 NP/LCL: Half the rate of thermal efficiencies compared to GG/SP 3.2 MWh 3.7m new houses expected by 2035 AnnualHeatDemandMWh/yr Building regs are key to delivering savings in new build
  7. 7. Heat Pump technology, do we need a Paradigm shift? 7 Sales figures, stakeholder views and expected improvements in technology form the backbone of our modelling Oil and electric systems first to be replaced, with hybrid systems towards end of period 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 GG: Highest scenario All other scenarios Heating systems often distressed purchases; consumers buy known technologies Much uncertainty for this technology - some form of further intervention could see this market kick started Millions Widespread uptake will be dependent on RHI and consumer affordability
  8. 8. District Heating highlighted in Heat Strategy 2013; features in all scenarios 8 Existing schemes mainly have anchor loads c80 schemes serving 200k residential properties LCL sees a move into the residential sector in new housing (garden cities) rather than retrofit GG/SP: CHP in Commercial buildings Picture courtesy of Ceequal Opportunity of synergy with electricity balancing through the use of interseasonal storage
  9. 9. Changing Rooms Lighting – moving on from Halogens 9 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Halogen LED CFL Incandescent Fluorescent Gone Green Millionbulbs
  10. 10. Consumers love affair with Halogens knows no end… 100 200 400 600 800 1,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Millionbulbs Low Carbon Life Incandescent Fluorescent Halogen LED CFL Tension between consumer preferences and policy intervention unless manufacturers champion LEDs
  11. 11. 11 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 TWh/yr Setting the right pathway can deliver massive savings in lighting demand LCL GG NP SP 10 TWH GG sees policy intervention early; SP sees it later
  12. 12. Residential Appliances – 60% residential demand 12 55 60 65 70 75 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 TWh/yr NP SP Largest difference driven by cold/wet appliance efficiency and adoption of electronics Efficiency improves through technology development and the introduction of policy standards More desktops More stuff Replace on fail LCL GG Consumer preferences and efficiency standards drive demand for goods
  13. 13. 13 100 125 150 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Power 200 250 300 350 400 Gas TWh/yr Efficiencies balance growth Uptake of Heat Pumps Electrification of transport Residential Energy – adding up the numbers
  14. 14. Annual Demand – I&C 14 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 Gas Decrease reliance on gas over past decade Shift away from energy intensive industries towards commercial sector 175 200 225 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 Power Higher economic growth in GG and LCL causes the commercial gas demand and power demand to increase TWh/yr
  15. 15. 15 29000 30000 31000 32000 33000 34000 35000 36000 19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00 Demand Time Kick off Half Time 1800 MW Full Time 1500MW World Cup 2042, England v Uruguay - in a profligate world Score England 2 Uruguay 1
  16. 16. 16 World Cup 2042 – in a Gone Green world 29000 30000 31000 32000 33000 34000 35000 36000 19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00 Half Time 700MW Full Time 700MW Demand Time
  17. 17. 17 World Cup 2042 – in a Smart Gone Green world 29000 30000 31000 32000 33000 34000 35000 36000 19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00 Demand Time
  18. 18. 18 World Cup 2042 – in a Smart Gone Green world 29000 30000 31000 32000 33000 34000 35000 36000 19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00 Demand Time Commercial freezers balancing service EVs boost charge EVs and freezers provide demand relief
  19. 19. 19 Key Messages Legislative policy has delivered real savings to date It could continue to drive change in the energy sector in the future Consumer preferences and affordability will continue to determine the adoption of new technologies

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