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Adding the Domestic Private Sector
         Financial Balance
                              Fiscal Surplus

          DPSFB = CUB - GFB


   Current Account                             Current Account
   Deficit                                     Surplus




Domestic Private Sector
Financial Balance = 0



                              Fiscal Deficit
Portugal




                                                                                    Government Surplus
                                                                              5%



                                                                              3%


                                           Current Account Deficit                                            Current Account Surplus
                                                                              1%



-15%   -13%   -11%            -9%          -7%          -5%      -3%        -1%                          1%       3%         5%
                                                                              -1%

                 2000                            2003
               2001     2005               2004
       2008                                                                  -3%
               2009                 1999      1998
                  2007                2002              1997                                                                            Unemployment >= 7.5%
                                                                     1996    -5%
                                                                                                                                        Unemployment < 7.5%

               2006                                                                                                                     Private Sector Balance = 0




                                                                                    Government Deficit
                                                                             -7%




                     2011                                                    -9%

                       2010

                                                                            -11%



                                                                            -13%



                                                                            -15%
Portugal
                  4%




                  2%




                  0%
                        1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011



                 -2%
Percent of GDP




                 -4%                                                                                                                    Government Balance
                                                                                                                                        Private Balance



                 -6%




                 -8%




                 -10%




                 -12%
                                                                            Year
Italy
                                                         6%




                                                              Government Surplus
                                                         4%




                                                         2%




                                                         0%
-4%             -3%           -2%             -1%             0%                            1%             2%            3%        4%
      Current Account Deficit                          2001                                              Current Account Surplus        Unemployment >= 7.5%
                                                                                                                                        Unemployment < 7.5%
      2008
                                                2000                                                                                    Private Sector Balance = 0
                                                        -2%

      2009                                                                         1999           1998
                                    2003
                                             2002
                     2007
                                                              Government Deficit




                                           2004
                                    2005                -4%
                2006
               2011

              2010
                                                        -6%


                                                                                                                 1997
                                                                                                                        1996
                                                        -8%
Italy
                 12%



                 10%



                  8%



                  6%



                  4%
Percent of GDP




                  2%
                                                                                                                                        Government Balance

                  0%                                                                                                                    Private Balance

                        1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011

                 -2%



                 -4%



                 -6%



                 -8%



                 -10%
                                                                            Year
Ireland
                                                                         15%
Government Surplus




                                                                         10%


                                                                       2001
                                                                          5%
                           2007                                                1999
                                               2005                   2000
                                                               2002                      1998
                                  2008     2006                           0%    2003                        1997
-8%                  -6%                 -4%             -2%            2004 0%                 2%              4%
                                                                                                          1996
                                                                         -5%

                                                      2009
                                                                                                                       Unemployment >= 7.5%
                                                                        -10%
                                                                                                                       Unemployment < 7.5%
                                                                                                                       Private Sector Balance = 0
                                                                                      2010
Government Deficit




                                                                        -15%



                                                                        -20%



                                                                        -25%



                                                                        -30%
                                                                                2011


                     Current Account Deficit                            -35%                 Current Account Surplus
Ireland
                 40%




                 30%




                 20%




                 10%
Percent of GDP




                  0%                                                                                                                    Government Balance
                        1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   Private Balance



                 -10%




                 -20%




                 -30%




                 -40%
                                                                            Year
Greece
                                                                                                             0%
   -16%                 -14%   -12%          -10%         -8%              -6%           -4%          -2%          0%



                                                                                                            -2%

                                                           2000
                                                               2001
                                                                                  1999
                                                                                                            -4%
                                                                2002
                                                                           2003
                      2007
                                      2006
                                                                            2004               1998         -6%
Government Deficit




                     2008
                                                                                          1997

                                                             2005                                           -8%         Unemployment >= 7.5%
                                                                                                                        Private Sector Balance = 0


                                                                                               1996
                                      2009                                                                  -10%


                                                         2011

                                                                                                            -12%




                                                                                                            -14%


                                               2010

                                                                                                            -16%
                                                 Current Account Deficit
Greece
                 10%




                  5%




                  0%
                        1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011
Percent of GDP




                 -5%                                                                                                                    Government Balance
                                                                                                                                        Private Balance




                 -10%




                 -15%




                 -20%
                                                                            Year
Spain




                                                                                                    Government Surplus
       2007      2008                                                                     2%


              2006

                               2005             2004
                                                                                          0%
-12%      -10%           -8%            -6%                -4%
                                                          2003       2002 -2%                  0%                        2%
                                                       2001
                                                       2000
                                                                                         -2%


                                                              1999
                                                                           1998
                                                                                         -4%                                      Unemployment >= 7.5%
                                          2009
                                                                                1997                                              Private Sector Balance = 0




                                                                                                    Government Deficit
                                                                                                                                  Series4

                                                                                         -6%
                                                                                       1996



                                                                                         -8%



                                          2011

                                                                                        -10%


                                         2010

                        Current Account Deficit                                         -12%                                  Current Account Surplus
Spain
                 10%




                  5%




                  0%
                        1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011
Percent of GDP




                                                                                                                                        Government Balance
                                                                                                                                        Private Balance


                 -5%




                 -10%




                 -15%
                                                                            Year
Germany
                                     2%




                                            Government Surplus
                                    2001
                                     1%




 Current Account Deficit                                          Current Account Surplus                          2008
                                     0%
                                                                                             2009
-4%               -2%                      0%                    2%              4%                       6%              8%




                                    -1%

                                                                                                                                 Unemployment >= 7.5%
                           2000
                                                                                                                          2007   Unemployment < 7.5%
                                                                                                                                 Private Sector Balance = 0
                                    -2%
                    1999

                           1998
                                            Government Deficit




                                                                      2002
                                    -3%
                                                                                                      2010
                             1997                                                                                2006

                                                                  2003
                                                                                                   2005
                                    -4%                                                     2004

                                                                                                          2011



                                    -5%
Germany
                 12%




                 10%




                 8%




                 6%
Percent of GDP




                 4%

                                                                                                                                Government Balance
                                                                                                                                Private Balance
                 2%




                 0%
                       1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011


                 -2%




                 -4%




                 -6%
                                                                        Year
United Kingdom
                                                                                     6%



                                                                                     4%
                                    2001


                                                                                     2%


                            1999           2002
                                                                                     0%
                   2000
-4%          -3%                   -2%                          -1%                        0%

                                           2003
                                                                                    -2%
                     2007                         2008                       1998
      2006                          2004                                                        Unemployment >= 7.5%
                   2005                                                            -4%          Unemployment < 7.5%
                                                                               1997
                                                                                                Private Sector Balance = 0
                                                         2009

                                                                      1996          -6%



                                                                                    -8%



                                                                                    -10%
                                              2011

                                             2010
                                                                                    -12%



                                                                                    -14%
United Kingdom
                 15%




                 10%




                  5%
Percent of GDP




                  0%                                                                                                                    Government Balance
                        1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   Private Sector Balance




                 -5%




                 -10%




                 -15%
                                                                            Year
Japan
                            1%




-1%                               0%   1%          2%                 3%                 4%      5%     6%
                           -1%

                                                                                                 2007


                                                                              2008
                                                            2009
                           -3%


                                                                           1998
      Government Deficit




                                            1996
                           -5%                              1997

                                                                   2002                                      Unemployment < 7.5%
                                                                                     2005
                                                                                                             Private Sector Balance = 0
                                                                                          2006
                           -7%                              2000
                                                                                  2004
                                                                   2010
                                                    2001
                                                                          2003
                                                           2011
                           -9%




                           -11%
                                                                   1999




                           -13%
                                                            Current Account Surplus
Japan
                 20%




                 15%




                 10%




                  5%
Percent of GDP




                                                                                                                                        Government Balance
                                                                                                                                        Private Balance
                  0%
                        1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011




                 -5%




                 -10%




                 -15%
                                                                            Year
Government Surplus                                                           United States
                                                                                                                     4%




                                                                                                                     2%
                                                                      2001

                                                               2000
                                                   2002                        1999
                                                                                                                     0%
-7%                     -6%                  -5%              -4%              -3%              -2%           -1%          0%

                                                                                         1998

                                                   2008                                               1997          -2%
                                     2007
Government Deficit




                                                      2003                                             1996
                              2006                                                                                              Unemployment >= 7.5%
                                                                                                                    -4%
                                                                                                                                Unemployment < 7.5%
                                                                                      2009
                     2005                                                                                                       Private Sector Balance = 0
                                            2004

                                                                                                                    -6%




                                                                                                                    -8%




                                                                                                                    -10%
                                                                             2011


                                                                              2010
                                                                                                                    -12%
                                                             Current Account Deficit
United States
                 10%




                  5%




                  0%
                        1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011
Percent of GDP




                                                                                                                                        Government Balance
                                                                                                                                        Private Balance


                 -5%




                 -10%




                 -15%
                                                                            Year
Current Account 1996
                 4.0%




                 3.0%




                 2.0%




                 1.0%
Percent of GDP




                 0.0%
                         Portugal   Italy   Ireland    Greece      Spain   Germany   France



                 -1.0%




                 -2.0%




                 -3.0%




                 -4.0%
Current Account 1997
                 4.0%



                 3.0%



                 2.0%



                 1.0%



                 0.0%
                         Portugal   Italy   Ireland    Greece      Spain   Germany   France
Percent of GDP




                 -1.0%



                 -2.0%



                 -3.0%



                 -4.0%



                 -5.0%



                 -6.0%



                 -7.0%
Current Account 1998
                 4.0%




                 2.0%




                 0.0%
                         Portugal   Italy   Ireland    Greece      Spain   Germany   France
Percent of GDP




                 -2.0%




                 -4.0%




                 -6.0%




                 -8.0%
Current Account 1999
                  4.0%




                  2.0%




                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France




                  -2.0%
Percent of GDP




                  -4.0%




                  -6.0%




                  -8.0%




                 -10.0%
Current Account 2000
                  4.0%




                  2.0%




                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France



                  -2.0%
Percent of GDP




                  -4.0%




                  -6.0%




                  -8.0%




                 -10.0%




                 -12.0%
Current Account 2001
                  4.0%




                  2.0%




                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France



                  -2.0%
Percent of GDP




                  -4.0%




                  -6.0%




                  -8.0%




                 -10.0%




                 -12.0%
Current Account 2002
                  4.0%




                  2.0%




                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France




                  -2.0%
Percent of GDP




                  -4.0%




                  -6.0%




                  -8.0%




                 -10.0%
Current Account 2003
                 3.0%



                 2.0%



                 1.0%



                 0.0%
                         Portugal   Italy   Ireland    Greece      Spain   Germany   France


                 -1.0%
Percent of GDP




                 -2.0%



                 -3.0%



                 -4.0%



                 -5.0%



                 -6.0%



                 -7.0%
Current Account 2004
                  6.0%




                  4.0%




                  2.0%




                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France
Percent of GDP




                  -2.0%




                  -4.0%




                  -6.0%




                  -8.0%




                 -10.0%
Current Account 2005
                  6.0%




                  4.0%




                  2.0%




                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France
Percent of GDP




                  -2.0%




                  -4.0%




                  -6.0%




                  -8.0%




                 -10.0%




                 -12.0%
Current Account 2006
                  8.0%



                  6.0%



                  4.0%



                  2.0%



                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France
Percent of GDP




                  -2.0%



                  -4.0%



                  -6.0%



                  -8.0%



                 -10.0%



                 -12.0%



                 -14.0%
Current Account 2007
                 10.0%




                  5.0%




                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France
Percent of GDP




                  -5.0%




                 -10.0%




                 -15.0%




                 -20.0%
Current Account 2008
                 10.0%




                  5.0%




                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France
Percent of GDP




                  -5.0%




                 -10.0%




                 -15.0%




                 -20.0%
Current Account 2009
                  6.0%



                  4.0%



                  2.0%



                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France


                  -2.0%
Percent of GDP




                  -4.0%



                  -6.0%



                  -8.0%



                 -10.0%



                 -12.0%



                 -14.0%
Current Account 2010
                  8.0%



                  6.0%



                  4.0%



                  2.0%



                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France
Percent of GDP




                  -2.0%



                  -4.0%



                  -6.0%



                  -8.0%



                 -10.0%



                 -12.0%
Current Account 2011
                  8.0%



                  6.0%



                  4.0%



                  2.0%



                  0.0%
                          Portugal   Italy    Ireland   Greece      Spain   Germany   France
Percent of GDP




                  -2.0%



                  -4.0%



                  -6.0%



                  -8.0%



                 -10.0%



                 -12.0%

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Adding the Domestic Private Sector Financial Balance

  • 1. Adding the Domestic Private Sector Financial Balance Fiscal Surplus DPSFB = CUB - GFB Current Account Current Account Deficit Surplus Domestic Private Sector Financial Balance = 0 Fiscal Deficit
  • 2. Portugal Government Surplus 5% 3% Current Account Deficit Current Account Surplus 1% -15% -13% -11% -9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% -1% 2000 2003 2001 2005 2004 2008 -3% 2009 1999 1998 2007 2002 1997 Unemployment >= 7.5% 1996 -5% Unemployment < 7.5% 2006 Private Sector Balance = 0 Government Deficit -7% 2011 -9% 2010 -11% -13% -15%
  • 3. Portugal 4% 2% 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -2% Percent of GDP -4% Government Balance Private Balance -6% -8% -10% -12% Year
  • 4. Italy 6% Government Surplus 4% 2% 0% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Current Account Deficit 2001 Current Account Surplus Unemployment >= 7.5% Unemployment < 7.5% 2008 2000 Private Sector Balance = 0 -2% 2009 1999 1998 2003 2002 2007 Government Deficit 2004 2005 -4% 2006 2011 2010 -6% 1997 1996 -8%
  • 5. Italy 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Percent of GDP 2% Government Balance 0% Private Balance 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Year
  • 6. Ireland 15% Government Surplus 10% 2001 5% 2007 1999 2005 2000 2002 1998 2008 2006 0% 2003 1997 -8% -6% -4% -2% 2004 0% 2% 4% 1996 -5% 2009 Unemployment >= 7.5% -10% Unemployment < 7.5% Private Sector Balance = 0 2010 Government Deficit -15% -20% -25% -30% 2011 Current Account Deficit -35% Current Account Surplus
  • 7. Ireland 40% 30% 20% 10% Percent of GDP 0% Government Balance 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Private Balance -10% -20% -30% -40% Year
  • 8. Greece 0% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% -2% 2000 2001 1999 -4% 2002 2003 2007 2006 2004 1998 -6% Government Deficit 2008 1997 2005 -8% Unemployment >= 7.5% Private Sector Balance = 0 1996 2009 -10% 2011 -12% -14% 2010 -16% Current Account Deficit
  • 9. Greece 10% 5% 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Percent of GDP -5% Government Balance Private Balance -10% -15% -20% Year
  • 10. Spain Government Surplus 2007 2008 2% 2006 2005 2004 0% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% 2003 2002 -2% 0% 2% 2001 2000 -2% 1999 1998 -4% Unemployment >= 7.5% 2009 1997 Private Sector Balance = 0 Government Deficit Series4 -6% 1996 -8% 2011 -10% 2010 Current Account Deficit -12% Current Account Surplus
  • 11. Spain 10% 5% 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Percent of GDP Government Balance Private Balance -5% -10% -15% Year
  • 12. Germany 2% Government Surplus 2001 1% Current Account Deficit Current Account Surplus 2008 0% 2009 -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% -1% Unemployment >= 7.5% 2000 2007 Unemployment < 7.5% Private Sector Balance = 0 -2% 1999 1998 Government Deficit 2002 -3% 2010 1997 2006 2003 2005 -4% 2004 2011 -5%
  • 13. Germany 12% 10% 8% 6% Percent of GDP 4% Government Balance Private Balance 2% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -2% -4% -6% Year
  • 14. United Kingdom 6% 4% 2001 2% 1999 2002 0% 2000 -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 2003 -2% 2007 2008 1998 2006 2004 Unemployment >= 7.5% 2005 -4% Unemployment < 7.5% 1997 Private Sector Balance = 0 2009 1996 -6% -8% -10% 2011 2010 -12% -14%
  • 15. United Kingdom 15% 10% 5% Percent of GDP 0% Government Balance 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Private Sector Balance -5% -10% -15% Year
  • 16. Japan 1% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% -1% 2007 2008 2009 -3% 1998 Government Deficit 1996 -5% 1997 2002 Unemployment < 7.5% 2005 Private Sector Balance = 0 2006 -7% 2000 2004 2010 2001 2003 2011 -9% -11% 1999 -13% Current Account Surplus
  • 17. Japan 20% 15% 10% 5% Percent of GDP Government Balance Private Balance 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -5% -10% -15% Year
  • 18. Government Surplus United States 4% 2% 2001 2000 2002 1999 0% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1998 2008 1997 -2% 2007 Government Deficit 2003 1996 2006 Unemployment >= 7.5% -4% Unemployment < 7.5% 2009 2005 Private Sector Balance = 0 2004 -6% -8% -10% 2011 2010 -12% Current Account Deficit
  • 19. United States 10% 5% 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Percent of GDP Government Balance Private Balance -5% -10% -15% Year
  • 20. Current Account 1996 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Percent of GDP 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0%
  • 21. Current Account 1997 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France Percent of GDP -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0%
  • 22. Current Account 1998 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France Percent of GDP -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%
  • 23. Current Account 1999 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France -2.0% Percent of GDP -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%
  • 24. Current Account 2000 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France -2.0% Percent of GDP -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0%
  • 25. Current Account 2001 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France -2.0% Percent of GDP -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0%
  • 26. Current Account 2002 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France -2.0% Percent of GDP -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%
  • 27. Current Account 2003 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France -1.0% Percent of GDP -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0%
  • 28. Current Account 2004 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France Percent of GDP -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%
  • 29. Current Account 2005 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France Percent of GDP -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0%
  • 30. Current Account 2006 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France Percent of GDP -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
  • 31. Current Account 2007 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France Percent of GDP -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
  • 32. Current Account 2008 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France Percent of GDP -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
  • 33. Current Account 2009 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France -2.0% Percent of GDP -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
  • 34. Current Account 2010 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France Percent of GDP -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0%
  • 35. Current Account 2011 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France Percent of GDP -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0%