Deep dive to optimized online marketing in Facebook. Explaining both current optimization features in Facebook as well as optimization built by Smartly.io on top of Facebook. Metrics Monday, 2015-11-02
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Multi Armed Bandits and Optimized Online Marketing
1. Multi Armed Bandits
and
Optimized Online Marketing
2015-11-02 Metrics Monday
Markus Ojala
Chief Data Scientist, PhD
Twitter: @MarkusOjala
2. Data
Scientist
(n.):
Person
who
is
better
at
statistics
than
any
software
engineer
and
better
at
software
engineering
than
any
statistician.
@josh_wills
5. CPC
To get likes, comments, shares or
clicks, go with this option
CPM
Works best with highly targeted
audiences
CPA
Works with mobile app installs, page
likes, offer claims, and link clicks
oCPM
Minimum 25 daily conversions! For
large audiences.
Facebook Bidding 101
nces!
bid = CPC bid * eCTR
the higher the eCTR, the
ikely it is the ad will win
ction
e other hand, if the ad is
ng CPM, then the system
ptimise for the cheapest
ssions rather than clicks.
Cheapest clicks
(high eCTR)
Cheapest
actions
(high eCVR)
Cheapest
impressions
Bid
goal
9. Probability
matching
strategies
Aka:
Thompson
sampling
or
Bayesian
Bandits
The
number
of
pulls
for
a
given
lever
should
match
its
actual
probability
of
being
the
optimal
lever
Sample
from
the
posterior
for
the
mean
of
each
lever
p(λ |
X)
=
Gamma(conv +
prior_conv,
impr +
prior_impr)
Prior,
Posterior,
Binomial,
Poisson,
Beta,
Gamma
14. More
dimensions
Conversion
price,
Revenue,
Profit
Budget
change
limits
Control
only
on
budget
level
Time
variation
Optimization
goal
Multilevel
modelling
19. We serve the 100+ most
advanced performance
marketers in the world
Fast
Track
Are
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hungry
enough?
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