Patterns of activity within a community, market, or organization occur in persistent combinations that we refer to as "normal". When those patterns change enough, and a new set of interactions become more persistent, a new normal emerges. This discussion looks at how to foresee the emergence of a next normal.
2. What is the Next Normal?
• The next normal occurs when a new system replaces the old system in both its
role and its opportunity as the preferred one to use.
• A system occurs when a set of interacting items routinely take on a primary group
behavior that is systemic. That is, each of a critical number of elements act, both
consistently and persistently, primarily through their interactions with each other.
• The routine behavior (form) of the system occurs when the system is in a state of
dynamic equilibrium, not just static configuration.
• When the routine behavior consistently takes the place of a predecessor, the
routine becomes the next “normal”.
3. How does the next normal occur?
• At the element level, a critical amount of modifications and replacements can
occur that together create new interaction patterns having more impact than
prior ones.
• “Systems” are recognized as systems only when those interior impacts have
relatively predictable directionality and location. But impacts do not have
significant effects by default. Impacts are types, not levels. Impacts can become
“effective” by force or by adoption, on a case-by-case basis.
• The next normal occurs when a new system’s effectiveness allows it to become a
statistically predominant preference over an older system’s effectiveness. The
preference may occur by force (causality or mandate) or by choice (attraction),
leading to its potential predominance. It is important to note that the key
difference here is in how the result is achieved, not in what result is achieved.
4. What causes the next normal?
• In an existing system, dynamic equilibrium relies on the compatibility of its elements to create
circumstances in which the dynamics are realized.
• System elements are not only objects. Elements can be forces and states as well as objects.
• A system becomes replaceable when the effectiveness of the system relies on compatibilities that
are unattractive or impossible to sustain in comparison to the compatibilities required by other
available systems.
• An alternative system becomes a candidate for “normal” because its internal compatibilities are
more supportable than the incumbent system’s.
• Outside of the laws of Nature, both compatibilities and supportability are circumstances that are
either engineered or farmed.
• In an organization, supportability is particularly sensitive to priorities. Priorities are typically
established with regard to competition, cooperation, or cohesion. These issues correspond
approximately to advantage, competency, and protection. Changes underlying the priorities have
upstream influence.
7. Wrap-up
• An organization can produce system elements, and it may itself be a
system element.
• If demand alters the behavior of an organization, it may affect the
equilibrium of related systems.
• If a system becomes unstable, alternative interactions can find
success and instigate rearrangement of elements within and around
the originals, to favor new preferences in demand.
• Consistent support of new interactions can mature into making the
alternatives the next normal.