This document discusses the development of a pilot surface water forecasting tool for Glasgow, Scotland to be used operationally during the 2014 Commonwealth Games. A multi-organization team created a methodology and technical model setup to forecast heavy rainfall and surface water flood risk. The tool provided probabilistic forecasts during the Games and helped responders manage weather-related risks. The pilot demonstrated the potential for linking scientific forecasting with operational needs.

1. Surface water forecasting for the
Commonwealth Games
Linda Speight
SNIFFER Conference
February 2015

2. Developing a pilot surface water forecasting tool
for Glasgow and operational use during the
Commonwealth Games
SEPA - L. Speight, M. Cranston, A. Tavendale, CEH - R.J. Moore, S.J. Cole,
Met Office - B. Golding, C. Pierce, B. Wright, N. Roberts, James Hutton
Institute - S. Ghimire, S. Dunn, Deltares – J. Dhandia
Dr. Linda Speight
SEPA
Scottish Flood Forecasting Service

3. Glasgow 2002 © GCC
• Existing approaches to
surface water forecasting
• Why a pilot in Glasgow?
• Technical model set up
• Operational use during
the Games
• What next?

4. Background

5. Existing approaches

6. Aims & Objectives
• Review emerging
science
• Develop a pilot
methodology for surface
water flood forecasting
in Scotland
 Operationally useful
 Integrate with current
SFFS tools Convective showers May 10th 2014

7. Summer flooding
in Glasgow
July 2002, June 2007,
August 2011,
July 2012, July 2013

8. The Commonwealth Games
• High profile event to
demonstrate science
• Opportunity to share
resources / knowledge
• Strategic Flood Risk
Assessment for Games
identified flooding as a risk
• Well established network of
responders

9. Steering Group
• Provide input, advice and data
• Advise on existing models and
mapping
• Inform on what alerting mechanisms
would be beneficial
• Provide link between project and
responder community

10. Technical set up

11. Methodology

12. FEWS Glasgow

13. Operational use

14. SFFS Games Operations
BriefingBriefing
BriefingBriefing
Met Office
Meteorologist
Met Office
Meteorologist
SEPA National flood
forecasting
hydrologist
SEPA National flood
forecasting
hydrologist
Wider resilience
and responder
community in
Glasgow
Wider resilience
and responder
community in
GlasgowFlood AlertFlood Alert
National
FGS
National
FGS
SEPA Games flood
forecasting
hydrologist
SEPA Games flood
forecasting
hydrologist
SEPA Resilience
Officer
SEPA Resilience
Officer
Games Multi
Agency Control
Centre
Games Multi
Agency Control
Centre
Glasgow
DSWFF
Glasgow
DSWFF

16. Forecasts during the Games

17. Launch weekend 19th – 20th July
HRA Probability of greater than 20mm in 3 hours

18. 18/07/2014
16:30 GMT
18/07/2014
21:30 GMT
19/07/2014
03:30 GMT
Transport
People &
Property

19. 19/07/2014
09:32 GMT
19/07/2014
15:27 GMT
Transport
People &
Property


20. Final weekend 2nd – 3rd August
Probability of > 20mm in 3 hours

22. Conclusions

23. Success and future development
• Actively addressed the challenge of
surface water flooding
• Linked science and operational needs
• Real time inclusion of impacts
• Learnt about the importance of
communication
How can we extend this to other areas in the future?
Responders were
‘hanging on every
word (of the forecast)
when the weather
turned and the
forecasts were pretty
accurate’.

24. What next for Scotland?
• Development of heavy rainfall alert
tool
• Reviewing how we deal with large
data volumes in our system
• Working on improving best
practice in communicating
uncertainty
More information:
SFFS Blog: www.floodforecastingservice.net
Stage 1 project report: http://www.crew.ac.uk/publications/ (final report in progress)
Journal Paper: submitted to Journal of Flood Risk Management

25. SFFS Blog: http://floodforecastingservice.net/2014/07/14/operational-surface-water-
flood-forecasting-model-for-glasgow-now-live/
CEH blog: http://cehsciencenews.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/surface-water-flood-risk-
forecasting-glasgow-commonwealth-games.html
SEPA view: http://www.sepaview.com/2014/07/new-surface-water-flood-forecasting-
tool-benefits-glasgow-and-the-commonwealth-games/
HEPEX blog: http://hepex.irstea.fr/developing-a-pilot-surface-water-flood-forecasting-
tool-for-glasgow-and-operational-use-during-the-commonwealth-games/
Stage 1 project report: http://www.crew.ac.uk/publications/surface-water-flood-
forecasting-urban-communities-review
SEPA Flood forecasting and warning strategy:
http://www.sepa.org.uk/flooding/idoc.ashx?docid=694c7071-519d-4967-835d-
9bd087c18d64&version=-1
Speight, Cole, Moore, Pierce, Wright, Golding, Cranston, Tavendale, Dhondia, Ghimire
(2015) Developing surface water flood forecasting capabilities in Scotland: an
operational pilot for the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. Journal of Flood Risk
Management. Submitted
Full References