While Hanjin's August 2016 bankruptcy recedes in the rear view mirror (unless you still have cargo being held hostage in a Hanjin container in a number of smaller Asian ports); what can we reasonably expect in 2017? And how are the shippers, traders, and forwarders affected by shipping alliances? Here is our forecast.

1. Looking Ahead: Container
Market Forecast 2017

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5. Here Is Our Forecast.

6. There Are Now Three Major
Shipping Alliances.

7. The 2m Plus H

8. Maersk and MSC continue to dominate, and now they've got
Hyundai merchant marine's strong Asian connection feeding their
megas.
On sunday 11 Dec Maersk and Hyundai announced Hyundai
would be entering into an exclusive cargo-sharing agreement with
the 2m that involves slot purchasing.
Additionally, Maersk will assume the charters for five HMM
vessels, which will be a financial relief for HMM's creditors and
shareholders, while Maersk's COO soren toft mentioned how
sunday's agreement will enhance the 2m's presence in the
trans-pacific trade.

9. Forecast:

10. The Ocean Alliance

11. Consists of CMA CGM – OOCL – China Cosco – evergreen. Both
China Cosco and OOCL will be receiving 20,000+ teu mega's
beginning 2017, increasing their mega fleet.
However with Mr. Trump threatening a trade war with China, filling
those megas might prove problematic as the EU's continued
economic weakness preclude their picking up additional chinese
exports.

12. With A Chance Of Political Storms.
Forecast:

13. The Alliance
Hapag-Lloyd
MOL
K Line
NYK
Yang Ming

14. MOL – K LINE – NYK agreed to merge; which formed the world
6th largest shipping company, while both Hapag-Lloyd (due their
acquisition of UASCI) and MOL will receiving additional 20,000+
teu mega's beginning 2017, adding to their existing mega-heavy
fleet.
In a sign of the times, the alliance members have set up a
'catastrophic instrument' between themselves that will allow the
members to successfully deliver the cargo-containers of any
alliance member that goes bankrupt
Both Yang Ming and K Line were members of the CKHYE alliance
with Hanjin, and both suffered huge loss of reputation as their
irate clients found boxes they'd booked with K Line and Yang
Ming had been placed on Hanjin vessels and were seized,
arrested, or otherwise delayed

15. As They Compete Against The Ocean Alliance
For Cargo Out Of Asia.
Forecast:

16. 2017 promises to be an interesting
year. From brexit to the incoming
american administration, it seems the
prevailing sentiments are not too
pro-trade. Should the nativist trend
continue, the current problem of too
many containers versus too- few cargo
will continue, and the alliances
'catastrophic instrument' may well be
tested. The flight to safety may very
well continue.

17. Container shipping: 2016 a
year-in-review
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