1. What Is The Opportunity for UK Food &
Drink in Africa ?
London 10th December 2014
1

2. Why me to talk to you?
• 22 years experience
• 65 countries around the world – wide
range of products and supply chains
• Africa - off to Ethiopia tonight
• In the past – Tanzania, Uganda,
Kenya, Ghana, SA, Zambia, Egypt,
Tunisia, Cameroon, Ivory Coast,
Senegal, Lesotho, Swaziland
• Chair of the Food, Drink &
Agricultural Group of the CIM
• National Council, Institute of
Agricultural Management
2

3. The value chain consulting arm of
3

4. African headlines........
Pessimistic Optimistic Realistic – a
point of
opportunity ?
4

5. Where does Africa fit in ? (source: FDF)
148 +14%
174 +37%
190 -37%
196 -10%
198 +4%
204 -1%
210 +10%
212 -3%
215 +7%
217 +4%
221 +16%
276 +18%
332 +2%
409 -19%
577 +10%
951 -1%
1,071 +1%
1,348 -6%
1,560 +3%
2,489 -2%
Norway
Taiwan
Singapore
South Africa
Poland
Sweden
Australia
Canada
China
Denmark
United Arab…
Hong Kong
Italy
Belgium
Spain
Germany
Netherlands
United States
France
Ireland
5

6. What does the world buy from us ? (source: FDF)
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Processed milk
Lamb
Beef
Breakfast cereals
Soft drinks
Cheese
Beer
Salmon
Chocolate
Whisky
£m
6

7. African GDP,1980 – 2016 (US$ billion)
Source: IMF
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
7

8. Global dairy demand predictions – OECD
forecast to 2017 (000 tonnes)
2008 2017 % Change
World 36, 710 42,505 15.8
OECD 20, 680 22,470 8.6
EU 27 11,960 12,690 6.1
United States 5,760 6,450 11.9
China 1,945 2,595 33.5
India 4,015 5,365 33.6
Australia 355 395 11.3
Sub Saharan
Africa
570 750 31.8
8

9. African livestock production index (2004 -2006 =
100)
Source: FAOStat
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
9

10. Diverse economies
10
Ethiopia
Dem. Rep. Congo
South Africa
Tanzania
KenyaUganda
Ghana
Côted'Ivoire
Madagascar
Mozambique
Cameroon
Angola
Burkina Faso
Malawi
Niger
Zambia
Senegal
Zimbabwe
Guinea
Rwanda
Benin
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
GDPgrowth%(last3years)
Population (million)
Nigeria
180

11. Selected city growth – 2015/2030
12
16
Lagos
4
6
Dar es Salam11
16
Kinshasa
4
6
Nairobi
6
8
Luanda
5
6
Abidjan
4
5
Kano
3
5
Addis Ababa
Source:AfDB – TrackingAfrica’s Progress
11

12. Rising middle class
4.6m
2000
2.4m
1990
15m
2014
40m
2030f
Middle Class Households (11 countries)
Standard Bank (2014)
14%
86%
African Development
Bank’s (AfDB) 2011
300 m ‘middle class’
Approx 1/3 of pop’n
0.2
0.4
0.9
0.6
4.1
0.4
1.1
2
2
12
0 5 10 15
Mozambique
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nigeria
High Middle Class Households (m)
2030
2015
Source: Standard Bank
12

13. African supermarkets
13
0 50 100
DR Congo
Rawanda
Ghana
Tanzania
Madagascar
Nigeria
Uganda
Mozambique
Angola
Zambia
Kenya
Zimbabwe
Botswana
Namibia
No of Stores
Shoprite
Choppies
Pick n Pay
Nakumatt
Mass Mart
Uchumi
Spar

14. Big in Africa
• Diageo 14% of net sales
• Olam 17% of group revenue
• SAB Miller 13% of group EBITDA
• SPX 5% of group revenue
• Nestle 6% of global sales (includes MENA)
• Unilever 10% of global sales
14

15. On the ground - specific challenges vary by
country, but common themes exist
• Size
• Disaggregation
• Undiscerning customers
• Weak standards
• Poor enforcement of standards
• Weak/inefficient market signals
• Low customer loyalty
• NGO’s pervasive
15

16. Global drying
16

17. Political stability
17

18. Strategy
• Local partners
 invariably essential
• Tailor products to the market – pack size/specifications
• Work with NGO’s
• Modify plans to meet the market
• Be prepared for the long run
18

19. Summary
• Big market – UK footprint is small
• Africa’s people and resources make it unavoidable
• African growth and prosperity – not assured
• Significant challenges at all levels
• Pioneers are already establishing brands and market share
• Success requires commitment, flexibility, long-term view
19

20. 20 © Promar International
Region 1 - Americas Region 2 - Afro-Europe Region 3 - Asia
Logical trading zones ?

21. 2121
More information
Please contact
John Giles
Divisional Director
Promar International
john.giles@genusplc.com
+44 7768 553298
Skype: j.giles.promar