October 31 2012: Professor Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI, presented his perspective and predictions for the 2012 US Presidential Election based on the latest polling. The event was held by the Centre for Political and Constitutional Studies, Institute of Contemporary British History at King's College London.

1. 1
The American Presidential Elections
Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL
Chancellor & Visiting Professor
University of Kent
10 September 2012
Chancellor@kent.ac.uk
@RobertWorcester
Mobile: 07974 812 723

2. The American Presidential Election
2
King’s College
London
Visiting Professor
and Honorary Fellow
Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL
31 October 2012
rmworcester@yahoo.com
@RobertWorcester

3. 3
2008

4. This is what happened in 2008 Obama/Biden 53%
McCain/Palin 46% 4
Battleground States
Obama
Lead
7
270 ELECTORAL VOTES TO WIN
Source: www.realclearpolitics.com

5. Swing Analysis: 2008 American Presidential Election
5
2004 USA Presidential Election Result 2008 USA Presidential Election Result Obama
State Bush Kerry Other Kerry Lead McCain Obama Other Obama Lead Swing
% % % % % % % % %
Alabama 63 37 0 -26 61 39 0 -22 2.0
Alaska 61 36 3 -25 60 38 2 -22 1.5
Arizona 55 44 1 -11 54 45 1 -9 1.0
Arkansas 54 45 1 -9 59 39 2 -20 -5.5
California 44 54 2 10 37 61 2 24 7.0
Colorado 52 47 1 -5 45 54 1 9 7.0
Connecticut 44 54 2 10 38 61 1 23 6.5
Delaware 46 53 1 7 37 62 1 25 9.0
Florida 52 47 1 -5 49 51 0 2 3.5
Georgia 58 41 1 -17 52 47 1 -5 6.0
Hawaii 45 54 1 9 27 72 1 45 18.0
Idaho 68 30 2 -38 61 36 3 -25 6.5
Illinois 45 55 0 10 37 62 1 25 7.5
Indiana 60 39 1 -21 49 50 1 1 11.0
Iowa 50 49 1 -1 45 54 1 9 5.0
Kansas 62 37 1 -25 57 41 2 -16 4.5
Kentucky 60 40 0 -20 58 41 1 -17 1.5
Louisiana 57 42 1 -15 59 40 1 -19 -2.0
Maine 45 54 1 9 41 58 1 17 4.0
Maryland 43 56 1 13 37 62 1 25 6.0
Massachusetts 37 62 1 25 36 62 2 26 0.5
Michigan 48 51 1 3 41 57 2 16 6.5
Minnesota 48 51 1 3 44 54 2 10 3.5
Mississippi 60 40 0 -20 57 43 0 -14 3.0
Missouri 53 46 1 -7 49 49 2 0 3.5
Montana 59 39 2 -20 50 47 3 -3 8.5
Nebraska 66 33 1 -33 57 42 1 -15 9.0
Nevada 51 48 1 -3 43 55 2 12 7.5
New Hampshire 49 50 1 1 45 54 1 9 4.0
New Jersey 46 53 1 7 42 57 1 15 4.0
New Mexico 50 49 1 -1 42 57 1 15 8.0
New York 40 58 2 18 37 62 1 25 3.5
North Carolina 56 44 0 -12 49 50 1 1 6.5
North Dakota 63 36 1 -27 53 45 2 -8 9.5
Ohio 51 49 0 -2 47 51 2 4 3.0
Oklahoma 66 34 0 -32 66 34 0 -32 0.0
Oregon 47 51 2 4 41 57 2 16 6.0
Pennsylvania 48 51 1 3 44 55 1 11 4.0
Rhode Island 39 59 2 20 35 63 2 28 4.0
South Carolina 58 41 1 -17 54 45 1 -9 4.0
South Dakota 60 38 2 -22 53 45 2 -8 7.0
Tennessee 57 43 0 -14 57 42 1 -15 -0.5
Texas 61 38 1 -23 55 44 1 -11 6.0
Utah 72 26 2 -46 63 34 3 -29 8.5
Vermont 39 59 2 20 31 68 1 37 8.5
Virginia 54 46 0 -8 47 53 0 6 7.0
Washington 46 53 1 7 41 58 1 17 5.0
West Virginia 56 43 1 -13 56 43 1 -13 0.0
Wisconsin 49 50 1 1 43 56 1 13 6.0
Wyoming 69 29 2 -40 65 33 2 -32 4.0
Dist Columbia 9 90 1 81 7 93 0 86 2.5
USA 51 48 1 -3 46 53 1 7 5.0
Analysis by Sir Robert W orcester and Tomasz Mludzinski, Ipsos Voting in 2008 45.9% 52.7% 1.3% 6.8% ©
MORI, London: rmworcester@yahoo.com 127,142,278 58,421,377 67,066,915 1,653,986 8,645,538 23.11.08

6. Final Polls 2008
6
FINAL POLLS 4.11.08 Foot- Sample Fieldwork OBAMA MCCAIN Others Don't LEAD Vote OBAMA MCCAIN OTHERS LEAD LEAD O-M Obama McCain ALL
Polling Organisation note Size End Dates Know Obama w/o DK ERROR SHARE SHARE SHARE POLL
n' % % % % % % % % % ERROR ERROR ERROR ACCURACY
# % % % %
1 RasmussenReports 4 n/a 03-Nov-08 52 46 1 1 6 99 53% 46% 1% 7% 0 0.0% 0% 0% 19/19
2 Ipsos/McClatchy 2 760 02-Nov-08 53 46 1 7 100 53% 46% 1% 7% 0 0.0% 0% 0% 53%/46%
3 Diageo/Hotline 2 800+ 02-Nov-08 50 45 5 5 95 53% 47% 0% 9% 2 0.5% 0% 1% 100% within
4 Pew Research 2 2,995 01-Nov-08 52 46 2 6 100 52% 46% 2% 9% 2 0.5% 1% 0% +/-3%
5 Daily Kos/Research 2000 2 1,100 03-Nov-08 51 46 2 1 5 99 52% 46% 2% 6% -1 0.5% 1% 0% 18/19
6 Fox News,Opinion Dynamics 2 971 02-Nov-08 50 43 2 5 7 95 53% 45% 2% 8% 1 0.5% 0% 1% 53%/46%
7 YouGov/Polimetrix 1,3 31,148 02-Nov-08 51 45 2 2 6 98 52% 46% 2% 6% -1 0.5% 1% 0% 95% within
8 NBC/Wall Street Journal 2,5 1,011 02-Nov-08 51 43 1 5 8 95 54% 45% 1% 6% -1 1.0% 1% 1% +/-2%
9 American Research Group Inc 2 1,200 03-Nov-08 53 45 1 1 8 99 54% 45% 1% 9% 2 1.0% 1% 1% 11/19
10 Democracy Coprs/Greenberg QR 2 1,000 02-Nov-08 53 44 3 9 100 53% 44% 3% 9% 2 1.0% 0% 2% 53%/46%
11 Marist 2 1,011 03-Nov-08 52 43 3 2 9 98 53% 44% 3% 9% 2 1.0% 0% 2% 58% within
12 Harris Interactive 2,3 5,210 03-Nov-08 52 44 4 8 100 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2% +/-1%
13 IBD/TIPP 2,4 n/a 03-Nov-08 52 44 4 8 100 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2%
14 CNN/Opinion Research 2 1,011 01-Nov-08 51 43 4 2 8 98 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2%
15 ABC/Wash Post 2 2,762 02-Nov-08 53 44 2 1 9 99 54% 44% 2% 10% 3 1.5% 1% 2%
16 CBS News 2 1,051 02-Nov-08 51 42 2 5 9 95 54% 44% 2% 10% 3 1.5% 1% 2%
17 Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby 2 n/a 03-Nov-08 54 43 3 11 100 54% 43% 3% 11% 4 2.0% 1% 3%
18 Gallup 2 3,050 02-Nov-08 55 44 1 11 100 55% 44% 1% 11% 4 2.0% 2% 2%
19 GWU/Battleground 4 n/a 03-Nov-08 50 48 2 2 100 50% 48% 2% 2% -5 2.5% 3% 2%
AVERAGE 52 44 2 7 98.4 53% 45% 2% 8% 1 1.1% 0.8% 1.3%
ELECTION RESULT 53% 46% 1% 7%
ELECTION RESULT 52.6% 46.1% 1.3% 6.6% Analysis by Robert Worcester and
99.8% counted 66,316,572 58,013,719 1,631,950 8,302,853 Tomasz Mludzinski, Ipsos MORI
Turnout 125,962,241 rmw orcester@yahoo.com
1 Registered Voters, 2 Likely Voters, 3 Internet Panel, 4 Technical details missing from html announcement, 5 Conducted by Hart/New house

7. The American Presidential Elections
7
2012

8. Remember the debates?
8

9. Think back: who did the Republicans want to beat Obama?
9
John Huntsman Newt Gingrich Herman Cain Sarah Palin
Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Ron Paul Michele Bachman

10. Chronology of the 2012 Election
10
 End September: Romney 23%, Perry 20%, Cain 14%, Gingrich 9%
 End October: Cain 25%, Romney 22%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 10%
 November 22: Republican Presidential Debate (three state debates prior)
 End November: Gingrich 33%, Romney 22%, Cain 12%, Paul 10%
 End December: Gingrich 28%, Romney 24%, Paul 12%, Perry 7%, Santorum 4%
 January 2: Romney wins Iowa caucus by 8 votes; Santorum close second
 January 10: New Hampshire primary, January 21: South Carolina primary
 January 30: Florida primary, February 28: Arizona & Michigan primaries
 March 6: Super Tuesday, 10 states: ALA, GA, ID, MA, ND, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA.
 March: 13th, AB, AS, HA, MISS; 17th MO; 18th PR; 20th IL; 24th LA
 April: DC, MD, WIS, CONN, Del, NY, PA, RI; May: IN, NC, WV, NE, OR, ARK, KE, TX
 August 27-30: Republican National Convention
 Sept 3-6: Democratic National Convention
 October 3: 1st National Presidential Debate
 October 11: Vice Presidential Debate
 October 16: 2nd National Presidential Debate
 October 22: 3rd National Presidential Debate
British elections
 November 6: Election Day usual length

11. Six reasons why I said that Obama will win* 11
1. The election of the Republican Congress in 2010
2. The improving economy in 2011/12
3. The Republicans are a divided party
4. There will be right-wing Republicans who’ll stay
home
5. Barak Obama is a formidable campaigner
6. Michele is as well
N.B. I said that I thought ‘President
Obama would win with just over
* Warwick University, 11 January 2012 300 electoral college votes

12. 2012 American election ‘matchups’ January
12
%
50 49 Obama vs... 49
48
48 47
47 47
%
46
46 45 45
44 43
42
42
41 41
40
38
36
Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul Perry Huntsman
Source: CBS

13. 2012 American election ‘matchups’ March
13
%
60
Obama vs...
52
49 50 50
50
44 43 Huntsman? GONE
42
39
40
Perry? GONE
30
20
10
0
Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul
Source: Gallup, NBC, Rassmussen

14. The conventions came...and went; no change
50
Republican Convention Democratic Convention
Obama
Obama 47%
46%
45
+4 +4
43%
42% Romney
Romney Swing = 0%
40
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Day 11 Day 12 Day 13 Day 14
http://spotlight.ipsos-na.com/index.php/elections /
Source: 1,000+ interviews with Registered Voters age 18 and over carried out online as part of four-day rolling poll. Data weighted to national population profile.

15. Since then, close, widened, closed, recovered
Q “If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama
for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and
Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote?”
P1 VP P2 P3
%
60
ELECTION DAY
Obama/Biden 50.5%
50
40
Romney/Ryan 49.5%
30
20
10
(DK 7%)
3rd 11th 16th 22nd
0
01-Nov
03-Nov
05-Nov
02-Oct
04-Oct
06-Oct
08-Oct
10-Oct
12-Oct
14-Oct
16-Oct
18-Oct
20-Oct
22-Oct
24-Oct
26-Oct
28-Oct
30-Oct
27-Aug
29-Aug
31-Aug
02-Sep
04-Sep
06-Sep
08-Sep
10-Sep
12-Sep
14-Sep
16-Sep
18-Sep
20-Sep
22-Sep
24-Sep
26-Sep
28-Sep
30-Sep
Source: c. 1,000+ interviews with Registered Voters age 18 and over carried out online as part of four-day rolling poll. Source: Reuters/Ipsos

16. And looking at some key segments of voters...
Q “In your opinion, which political party better serves the needs
of…?”
Women (56%) Black Americans (12%) Hispanic Americans (8%)
Don’t Don’t
know 2% Don’t know
1% know
Other/None19% 13%
11%
7% Democratic Democratic
Ind Party Party Party
8% 43% Independent 45%
Democratic Party Somewhat
Mitt Romney,
Republican Party
Republican 17% Favourable Somewhat
Party Mitt Romney, 84% Republican
Mitt Romney, 18% Unfavourable
28% 50%Republican Party
50% Republican 18%
+15 +84 33% 16% +29
Base: 1,074 Registered Voters, Base: 117 Registered Voters, Base: 76 Registered Voters,
Oct. 23-27 On-Line Oct. 23-27, On-Line Oct. 23,-27, On-Line
Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA

17. But Obama won the second, by 15 points
Q “Regardless of which candidate you happen to support,
who do you think did the better job in the debate?”
First Debate Second Debate
Don’t know
Don’t know
19%
+15
22%
Barack Obama,
Democrat
48%
Somewhat
Mitt Romney, +22 Mitt Romney, Favourable Somewhat
Mitt Romney,
Republican Republican Romney, 18% Unfavourable
Mitt
Republican
50% 33% Republican
Lean
18%
50% 33%
toward
favourable
18.5% swing 15%
Base: 1,323 Registered Voters, Oct. 3, On-Line Base: 655 Registered Voters, Oct. 17, On-Line
Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA

18. And Obama won the third, by 16 points
Q “Regardless of which candidate you happen to support,
who do you think did the better job in the debate?”
First Debate Second Debate Third Debate
Don’t know Don’t know
Don’t know 19% 22%
22% Barack Barack
Obama, Obama,
Democrat Democrat
Mitt Romney, 48% 47%
Mitt Romney, Somewhat
Mitt Romney,
Republican Favourable Somewhat
Republican
Mitt Romney, 33% Republican
50%
Republican Mitt Romney, 18% Unfavourable
31%
50% Republican 18%
+22 +15 33% +16
18.5% swing 0.5% swing
Base: 1,323 Registered Voters, Base: 655 Registered Voters, Base: 515 Registered Voters,
Oct. 3, On-Line Oct. 17, On-Line Oct. 23, On-Line
Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA

19. Obama’ 7 point lead today on healthcare steady
Q “In your opinion, which candidate for President has the better plan,
policy or approach to… Healthcare?” … the US Economy”
Healthcare US Economy
DK
12%
12%
Men
DK +6%
Women DK
13% None
+10
None 41% 12%
+7* -1%* 37%
Obama
Obama
34%
Men
Romney +15% 38%
Women
- 5% Romney
*+16% 4 weeks ago, +13% 3 weeks, +7% a week ago *+1% 4 weeks ago, +5% 3 weeks, -4% 2 weeks ago
Base: 1,491 American Registered Voters, Oct. 13-17, On-Line, update Oct. 23, 2012 Source: Reuters/Ipsos

20. Source: Ipsos USA, In your opinion, which candidate has a better
Which
FW 23-27.10.12,
1,665 RV; 1,291 LV
candidate...is...better/stronger
policy, plan, approach/which is stronger/... on...?
on each of the following...? 20
Policy, Plan, Image
Obama Romney Policy Gap Image Attributes Obama Romney
Approach Gap
Women’s Rights 49% 26% +23 Fun to meet 41% 15% +26
Gay Marriage 43% 25% +18 Likeable 51% 32% +19
The Environment 40% 26% +14 Eloquent 44% 29% +15
Education 42% 31% +14 Understands people 43% 31% +12
American Auto Ind’sty 41% 30% +11 Good person 45% 36% +9
Social Security 39% 31% +8 Presidential 46% 39% +7
Healthcare 43% 49% +8 Represents America 45% 39% +6
Medicare 41% 41% +7 Smart enough for job 45% 40% +5
War on Terrorism 40% 39% +7 Right values 43% 40% +3
Foreign Policy 39% 43% +5 Protect American jobs 42% 40% +2
Iran 35% 41% +5 Tough enough for job 42% 41% +1
Taxes 40% 40% +3 Effective in Wash’ton 38% 39% -1
Immigration 33% 32% +1 Man of faith 31% 45% -14
Small Businesses 40% 39% +1
Israel 31% 33% -2
Jobs and Employment 39% 41% -2
US Economy 31% 36% -5
Federal Deficit 30% 40% -10

21. Obama +24 point favourablity rating over Romney
after the second debate, up from +10 before debate
Q “Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards…?”
President Republican Presidential
Barack Obama Candidate Mitt Romney
Very Very
Very unfavourable
Very favourable
40% unfavourable
favourable 22% (-8)
22% 21% (+3)
34%
60% 52% Somewhat
Somewhat
+12
+20 +12
-4 Favourable
Somewhat
Unfavourable Somewhat Unfavourable 18% (+1)
7% Lean Favourable 48%
11% (+2)
toward 17% Lean
Lean Lean toward
unfavourable1 toward favourable
11% toward
favourable Unfavourable 12% (-1)
9% 16% (+1)
Base: 1,491 American Registered Voters, Oct. 16-20 2012, On-Line Source: Reuters/Ipsos

22. What Nate Silver is projecting (As of 5:15 am 31.10.12)
270 TO WIN
Seats Odds Popular Vote
Mitt Romney,
Republican
Mitt Romney, Barack 23% Barack Mitt Romney,
Barack
Republican Obama, Obama, Republican Obama,
Democrat Democrat
Democrat
239 Mitt Romney,
Mitt Romney, 48%
Somewhat
Republican
50%299
Republican
77% Favourable
Mitt Romney, 18%
50%
Somewhat
Unfavourable
50% Republican 18%
33%
+22
http://fivethirtyeight.nytimes.com/

23. Where Obama will win (or lose?) (Election 6.11.12)
What are the odds now?
(10th) (18th) (28) 10.10.12 13.10.12 18.10.12 31.10.12
Ohio 40% 47 50 68%/32% 64%/36% 72%/28% 78%/22%
Va. 16% 23 15 56%/44% 41%/59% 50%/50% 62%/38%
Fla. 10% 17 3 45%/55% 28%/72% 37%/63% 50%/50%
Wis. 8% 6 8 80%/20% 74%/26% 81%/19% 88%/12%
Nev. 8% 7 8 69%/31% 73%/27% 73%/27% 83%/17%
Iowa 6% 5 6 62%/38% 60%/40% 74%/26% 72%/26%
Colo. 5% 5 6 51%/49% 43%/57% 57%/43% 61%/39%
New H. 3% 4 3 77%/23% 66%/34% 71%/29%
Somewhat75%/25%
Favourable Somewhat
18% Unfavourable
Mitt Romney, 18%
10.10.12 13.10.12
Republican 18.10.12 31.10.12
Lean
toward
National 50%
75%/25% 63%/37% 70%/30% 77%/24%
favourable
15%
Somewhat
http://fivethirtyeight.nytimes.com/
unfavourable
10%

24. Six talking points for you (attribution not
required) 25
1. Yes, Romney won the first debate, so did Nick!
2. A third of ‘Independents’ won’t vote anyway. (DKDV)
3. 24% of Americans in 2007 said they’d never vote for a
Mormon; dropped now to 12%; no data I can find on those
who think they’d never vote for a black man since 1965.
4. 42% of Americans said in 1998 they are ‘born again
Christians’; many are ‘Tea Party Types’, natural core voters
for the Republican Party.
5. Therefore, will some right-wing Republicans stay home?
6. 12% say they’ve already voted; in all, only 72% of registered
voters say they’ll vote on the day.
7. One American in 25 say they’d rather have a tooth pulled
than watch another debate.

25. 6 days to go to November 6th, election day!
26
Q & A
Thank you!
 rmworcester@yahoo.com
 @RobertWorcester

26. State of the Election: Updated 5:15 am on October 31st 27
Nov. 6 Forecast
Now
Barack Obama Electoral Vote Mitt Romney
299 221.1
+10.7 since 23 Oct -10.7
Barack Obama Chance of Winning Mitt Romney
77.4% 22.6%
+9.3 since 23 Oct. -9.3
Barack Obama Popular Vote Mitt Romney
50.4% 48.5%
+0.4 since 23 Oct. -0.4
Source: 538: NYT: Nate Silver