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To: Interested Parties
Fr: Pete Brodnitz, Mike Gehrke
Date: October 25, 2012
Re: Highlights of Recent Indiana Polling
The results of our October survey of likely Indiana voters show that John Gregg has significantly
increased his support in recent weeks and is within striking distance of Congressman Mike Pence. In just
three months, Gregg has gained 10 points against Pence, and despite Pence’s 19% advantage on name
ID, Gregg is now within 6% of Pence.
Gregg Has Gained Significantly and Now the Race is Within 6%
The race for Governor is tight, with neither candidate receiving 50%, and undecided voters will determine
who wins. Pence receives 44%, Gregg receives 38%, Libertarian Rupert Boneham receives 6%, and
12% are undecided.
[IF YET TO VOTE] If the November election for Governor were held today, and the candidates were … for
whom would you vote? [IF DON’T KNOW] Which candidate do you lean toward?
[IF ALREADY VOTED] In the election for Governor, for whom did you vote?
Δ
July Sept Oct
(Oct 2012 –
2012 2012 2012
Sept 2012)
Difference -16 -10 -6 +4
Democrat John Gregg 32 37 38 +1
Republican Mike Pence 48 47 44 -3
Libertarian Rupert Boneham 4 4 6 +2
Don’t know/Refused 17 11 12 0
Difference -18 -10 -6 +4
Gregg w/ leaners 35 40 40 0
Pence w/ leaners 53 50 46 -4
Boneham w/ leaners 4 5 6 +1
Don’t Know w/ leaners 8 6 7 0
*May not add to 100% due to rounding
Nearly Half Unfamiliar With Gregg, Giving Him Room to Grow
Pence is better known than Gregg, yet he has not been able capitalize on this advantage on the actual
ballot. 3 in 4 voters are familiar with Pence, while 56% are familiar with Gregg – a 19% advantage for
Pence - yet Pence only leads by 6% on the ballot. With nearly half of voters unfamiliar with Gregg, he
has more room than Pence to grow as voters learn more about him.
This memo covers the results of our survey of 701 likely 2012 voters. The interviews were conducted
with live interviewers October 18-21, 2012. The margin of error for overall results of is ±3.7%, and
higher among subgroups. BSG’s clients include Governor Time Kaine (VA), Senator Jeff Merkley (OR),
Senator Chris Coons (DE), Congresswoman Mazie Hirono (HI-2) and Congressman Tim Walz (MN-1).
Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named “Pollster of the Year” by the American Association
of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work helping turn Virginia from Red to Purple.
October Indiana Poll