A poll commissioned by Democratic State Senator Karen Tallian shows she is tied with incumbent Republican Curtis Hill.
The poll of more than 890 likely voters showed both Hill and Tallian were tied at 36 percent each and 28% were undecided.
Victoria Research ● 7000 Carroll Ave, Suite 200, Takoma Park, MD 20912 ● Phone: 240-893-5487
TO: Alex Cortwright, Tallian for Attorney General
FROM: Donna Victoria, Victoria Research
RE: Indiana Attorney General Election
DATE: May 25, 2020
Indiana is still a state that heavily favors Republicans in most of its statewide races, as evinced in the double digit leads they hold for
President and Governor currently. But Hoosiers are not simply hitting the Republican button all the way down the line. In the key race for
Indiana Attorney General, Curtis Hill is a deeply damaged candidate whose law license is suspended, and other potential contenders for the
Republican nomination are still only polling around 40% of the vote. Democrats have an opportunity if they choose a nominee who can
both solidify the base and reach out to new audiences. Karen Tallian is the only Progressive in the race and the strongest candidate to win
the Attorney General office for Democrats in November.
KAREN TALLIAN STARTS THE RACE TIED WITH CURTIS HILL
= The initial trial heat is Karen Tallian 36%, Curtis Hill 36% and 28% Undecided. That is a crushingly low level of support for an
incumbent Republican, especially when the marquee top of the ticket races are still showing comfortable Republican leads (Trump
over Biden 49% to 39%, Holcomb up 20+ points).
= Subbing in another Republican does not really fix the magnitude of this problem for Republicans; we had time to include newcomer
Todd Rokita, but neither he nor other Republicans has any substantial favorability. Jonathan Weinzapfel starts off with roughly the
same showing as Tallian -- 35% Weinzapfel to 37% Curtis Hill.
AND THAT’S WITH ABOUT HALF OF ALL VOTERS NOT REALLY FOLLOWING HILL’S SCANDALS
= The importance of a female candidate is really seen here in the absence of full awareness of what has been taking place with the AG’s
office. While Curtis Hill has a poor 26% positive to 28% negative job performance rating, what’s really noticeable is that even when he
is identified in the question as Indiana’s current AG, nearly half (46%) of all voters are not following numerous news stories enough to
rate him at all. When we ask voters specifically if they have heard about the IN Supreme Court’s disciplinary action, again about half
(51%) say they have not heard much or anything about it.
= The combination of Karen Tallian’s declaration to restore integrity to the AG’s office combined with her record of fighting for health
care access really solidifies her support among women.
TALLIAN LEADS AGAINST A CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN 46% to 39% WHILE WEINZAPFEL CANNOT BUILD A LEAD
= We tested position statements for both Democrats against the same basic Republican message. In this matchup Karen builds a 7-point
lead, while Weinzapfel is stuck in a 41% - 41% tie in the same matchup.
TALLIAN’S MESSAGE: PRESERVE ACA HEALTHCARE, REFORM MARIJUANA LAWS, CLEAN UP AGs OFFICE BRINGS TOGETHER THE BEST
COALITION TO WIN THIS RACE
= Indiana never provides an easy path to a statewide win for Democrats. But Tallian’s strong credentials on health care and combatting
sexual harassment can solidify the Democratic base in an Attorney General race that starts out as very competitive. Tallian has long
been known as a state leader on reforming marijuana laws, and that position brings in a unique coalition of Democrats, Libertarians,
and Men under 50 to support her. With this information, Men under 50 favor Tallian by 6 points (47% to 41%) over a generic pro-gun pro-
This memorandum reports on the findings of a poll of likely general election voters for November 2020, conducted statewide in Indiana May
2020. 894 interviews were conducted online with registered likely voters recruited from the voter file. The margin of error for a
sample of this size is 3.3% at the 95% confidence level.