Changing the perception                 of retirement                      9 February 2012This event is kindly supported b...
Welcome                        Stewart RitchiePast President of the Faculty of Actuaries        This event is kindly suppo...
Who will care for the elderly?   Professor Robert Raeside   Edinburgh Napier University    This event is kindly supported ...
Who will care for the elderly? LC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirementProfessor R...
TrendsProportion of Population over 65252015                               EU (27 countries)                              ...
UK Situation                                                                                                              ...
Basic Premises  1. As populations age and extended families     become less, people become more dependent     on social co...
Percentage change in social support                                           Male Female Males Female                    ...
Who gives support?                                   Percentage change since 1997                                         ...
Overall Satisfaction with Life                   7                 6.5        Mean        6     Satisfaction 5.5          ...
Regression  Dependents  Overall Life Satisfaction           General Happiness  Losing confidence                   Ability...
Overall Satisfaction with Life                                                          65-79 yr olds                     ...
Findings    • Low explanatory power    • Little evidence of the importance of who      gives support – but support is impo...
Conclusions•   Populations are ageing and the extended family is decreasing•   Social support is very important•   Seems m...
Survey of Older People in Edinburgh
Mobility           Being in a           social network           is key
Importance of Cars                                                                                Trends in Driving Licens...
A time to dance: healthsystems for active retirement                        Helen Chung                                  S...
A time to dance:Health systems for longer livesHelen Chung MBBS MSc AIA, Head of Medical Research, Swiss ReILC-UK and Actu...
Healthy and active longer lives are  a reality for some, and could be for more  Source: Chelmsford Borough Council, Older ...
Challenges   for Health Systems:    – maintaining good health for longer    – staving off ill health    – treating and li...
Individuals are not saving adequatelyThe average annual amount individuals would have to save in order to achieve aretirem...
Can morbidity be compressed?        Source: Fries, Booth & Chakravarty, Journal of Aging Research, 2011Helen Chung | Head ...
Longer lives come with altered healthcareand prevention needs   chronic health problems have had time to accrue    over a...
Changing health systems for changing needs   Health systems must evolve in response to the ageing    of society to optimi...
Change your views on retirement          Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February ...
Thank you
Legal notice©2012 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are not permitted to create anymodifications or derivatives of this p...
Scotland’s demography – an             aging population              George P MacKenzieRegistrar General and Keeper of the...
Scotlands demography - an       ageing population               George MacKenzie   Registrar General and Keeper of the Rec...
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Overview of presentation• Introduction• Scotland’s current and future demographic  trends• Scotland’s ageing population• H...
Estimated population of Scotland on 30 June                2010 was 5,222,100                   6,000,000                 ...
Births, actual1 and                    projected2, Scotland, 1951-2035                  120                               ...
Deaths in Scotland – main causes                                     0    2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,...
Age                                                                                                                       ...
Life expectancy at birth, 95% confidence                  intervals for Council areas, 2008-2010                          ...
Life expectancy at birth, 95% confidence intervals for        Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Deciles, 2008-  ...
Healthy life expectancy• Levels for women and men have been gradually  increasing since 1980.• In 2010 healthy life expect...
Deaths, Scotland, actual1 and projected2, 1951-                                 2035                  70                  ...
Migration            National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Net migration, Scotland, 1951-2035                  50                  40                                                ...
Population, Scotland, actual and                                 projected, 1951-2035                  6,000              ...
Scotland’s             Census results                        90+                                               1861       ...
Projected changes by age group over the               next 25 years• Children (0-15):                    3% increase• Work...
Dependents1 per 100 working age                                                        population, Scotland, actual and   ...
Pensioners, comparing proposed changes to SPA                            1,350,000                            1,300,000   ...
Comparing pensionable age population, if SPA became 70+ by 2035 and current changes          1,400,000          1,200,000 ...
As well as producing the principalprojections, there are also a series of variant                 projections.  These are ...
Actual and projected total  population, Scotland, under the 2010-basedprincipal and selected variant projections, 1981-   ...
Average age of Scotland’s population under                    the 2010-based principal and selected variant               ...
Household change• Household sizes are falling, and more people  are living alone.• This means that the number of household...
Changes in household types                       1,400,000                       1,200,000                                ...
Projected percentage of people living alone, 2033                       90%                                  Males        ...
Questions?For more information please contact:NRS Statistics Customer Servicesemail: customer@gro-scotland.gov.ukTel: 0131...
Extra information!                 National Records of Scotland     preserving the past; recording the present; informing ...
Population increase, comparing selected                                        variants with natural change only          ...
Births by mother’s country of birth                          United Kingdom,                     Irish Republic       All ...
Births in Scotland, by mother’s country of birth,         3,500                                    2004-2010         3,000...
Comparisons withselected European     countries            National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the ...
Percentage change                                                                                                         ...
Assumptions about the 2010-based principal and         nine variant projections for Scotland                              ...
Comparisons withother UK countries               National Records of Scotland   preserving the past; recording the present...
• UK population is projected to increase from 62.3  million in 2010 to      73.2 million in 2035• An 18% rise (compared to...
UK countries population                     120                                  growth, 2010-2035                     115...
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035      90+       80                                                              ...
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035      90+       80                                                              ...
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035      90+       80                                                              ...
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035      90+       80                                                              ...
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035      90+       80                                                              ...
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035      90+       80                                                              ...
Persons (000s)                                                                                                            ...
Migration summary:2009-2010                                  In                    Out                    Net             ...
Where are overseas migrants coming from?• ? Roughly:                                            In                   Out  ...
Migration assumptions• From 2016-17 there is projected to be an annual net  gain of 17,500 people to Scotland       • +8,5...
Net migration and natural change, estimated and                                projected, 1951-2035                  50   ...
Scotland’s Age Specific                                    Fertility 1983-2010                         140                ...
For Scotland fertility rates are            assumed to..•   continue to increase for women in their 40s•   remain stable f...
Children (0-15)• 0.91 million in 2010• Rises to peak of 0.97 million in 2023• 0.94 million in 2035• A increase of 3% over ...
Working Age• 3.27 million in 2010• Rises to peak of 3.50 million in 2026• Falls slightly to 3.46 million in 2033• Rises to...
Pension Age• 1.04 million in 2010• 1.32 million in 2035• An increase of 26%• Takes into account changes in state pension  ...
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
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ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh

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For the third year in a row. ILC-UK launched into the new year with events in Scotland with an upcoming event in England. These events, in partnership with the Actuarial Profession, and supported by Swiss Re, will explore how the perception of retirement is changing and could change in the future.

The original concept of retirement is being eroded. Increasing concern over the costs of retirement has led to a shift of responsibility from Government and the corporate sector to the individual. The State Pension Age has been increased and public and private pensions are being scaled back.

Individuals are likely to have to work longer, contribute more and receive less than earlier generations. However, we need also to reflect that the older population is a very heterogeneous group, and the current balance of public and private funding will vary dramatically across the population.

At the same time we have seen dramatic improvements in life expectancy, and there is a huge opportunity (a longevity dividend) if further increases in life expectancy are spent in good health. This is certainly the case if we don’t just prolong survival for those with disease but delay the onset of disease and its progression. This requires flexibility in encouraging those that can work to work beyond current state pension ages and in focusing healthcare to those that will benefit. It also means changing people's behaviours towards work and retirement by highlighting the implications and restrictions of a long life beyond retirement, dependant on state funding.

At these events we will highlight particular initiatives that might help this period of transition - for example:

• developing agreed metrics of health status;
• cross-generational sharing of concerns so that each generation understands the challenges faced by others;
• moving towards patient-centred healthcare where geriatricians and GPs consider the holistic health of the individual;
• recognising the benefits and costs of preventative medicine and avoiding the trap of always assuming preventative medicine is preferable because it will cost less (it may not);
• provision of a suitable level of post-retirement income for all members of society and understanding what balance of public and private pension provision can help in this aim.

ILC-UK will launch a think piece at these event which will explore the debate outlined above.

Agenda from the event

16:30 – 16:35
Welcome and introduction from chair, Stewart Ritchie, Past President of the Faculty of Actuaries
16:35 – 16:50
Professor Robert Raeside, Professor in Applied Statistics at the School of Accounting, Financial Services and Law, Edinburgh Napier University
16:50 – 17:05
Helen Chung, Swiss Re
17:05 – 17:20
George P Mackenzie, Registrar General and Keeper of the Records
17:20 – 17:35
David Sinclair, ILC-UK
17:35 – 17:40
Panel response: Drummond Black, FSB
17:40 – 18:25
Discussion and Q&A
18.25 - 18.30
Close from chair

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  • Ecclesiastes 3, 'To everything there is a season….'
  • http://www.chelmsford.gov.uk/media/image/h/j/tea_dance_(o)_large.jpg
  • ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh

    1. 1. Changing the perception of retirement 9 February 2012This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
    2. 2. Welcome Stewart RitchiePast President of the Faculty of Actuaries This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
    3. 3. Who will care for the elderly? Professor Robert Raeside Edinburgh Napier University This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
    4. 4. Who will care for the elderly? LC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirementProfessor Robert RaesideEmployment Research InstituteEdinburgh Napier UniversityEmail: r.raeside@napier.ac.uk
    5. 5. TrendsProportion of Population over 65252015 EU (27 countries) Germany10 Italy United Kingdom Employment Rate of older 5 workers (55-64 yrs) 80 70 60 0 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 EU (27… Germany Italy Czech Republic Greece France Ireland Spain Poland Denmark Portugal Estonia Austria Netherlands Sweden Cyprus Belgium United Kingdom Eurostat Data Country
    6. 6. UK Situation Distribution of Houses by Occupant Age 30,000 Housing Trends Number of households (Thousands) 30.00% 25,000 25.00% All houses 2006 20,000 20.00% one person All houses 2031 other multi-person % 15.00% 15,000 lone parent 10.00% One person houses2006 cohabiting couple 10,000 married couple One person houses 5.00% 5,000 0.00% Under 25 - 35 - 45 - 55 - 65 - 75 & 0 25 34 44 54 64 74 over 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
    7. 7. Basic Premises 1. As populations age and extended families become less, people become more dependent on social contact with friends. 2. Loneliness and social isolation are associated with poorer mental and physical wellbeing
    8. 8. Percentage change in social support Male Female Males Female 65-79 65-79 80+ 80+ Someone outside household 1.5 -1.2 9.2 0.6 Is there someone who will listen 1.1 4.1 -8.5 7.1 Is there someone who will help in a crises 1.8 1.7 1.1 5.7 Is there someone you can relax with 4.9 3.1 -1.3 6.2 Anyone who really appreciates you 2.3 0.3 -3.3 7.3 Anyone you can count on for comfort 4.4 1.9 -1.1 5.1 Frequency of talking to neighbours 0.5 1.4 1.3 -3.8 Frequency of meeting people 0.6 0.4 -0.7 -2 Average 2.1 1.4 -0.4 3.3
    9. 9. Who gives support? Percentage change since 1997 40 65-79 80* nothing 30 written in 11 8 partner 45 30 20 child 15 43 Male sibling 4 2 10 other relative 5 4 0 friend friend child child sibling sibling nothing written in nothing written in partner partner other relative other relative friend 22 12 65-79 -10 80+ nothing -20 written in 7 9 partner 22 6 Male Female -30 child 26 46 Female sibling 11 5 -40 other relative 6 13 -50 friend 29 21 -60
    10. 10. Overall Satisfaction with Life 7 6.5 Mean 6 Satisfaction 5.5 5 4.5 UCL 4 LCL 3.5 Mean 65-79 65-79 Male Male Female Female Female Female 65-79 65-79 Male 80+ Male 80+ 80+ 80+ 1997 2007
    11. 11. Regression Dependents Overall Life Satisfaction General Happiness Losing confidence Ability to Face Problems Unhappy or DepressedIndependent VariablesSupport – PC formed out of the five support variablesFrequency of meeting peopleSupport Person – Partner, Child or Friend DummiesControl VariablesHealth status over last 12 monthsFinancial statusHousing tenure
    12. 12. Overall Satisfaction with Life 65-79 yr olds 80+ yr olds Standard Standard Variable Coefficient Error P Value Coefficient Error P Value (Constant) 7.079 .224 .000 7.275 .358 .000 frequency of talking to .017 .057 .772 .077 .086 .371 neighbours frequency of meeting people .061 .065 .347 -.092 .098 .349 Support .182 .048 .000 .339 .089 .000 Males partner .163 .124 .188 -.044 .270 .870 child .420 .154 .007 .007 .248 .992 friend .030 .142 .833 .183 .319 .567 health status over last 12 -.500 .051 .000 -.739 .082 .000 months financial situation -.199 .053 .000 .017 .097 .858 2 Adjusted R 24.7% 36.6% (Constant) 7.178 .221 .000 6.556 .384 .000 frequency of talking to .256 .055 .000 .316 .078 .000 neighbours frequency of meeting people -.027 .063 .663 -.124 .106 .245 Support .140 .054 .009 .188 .082 .023 partner .329 .137 .017 1.542 .385 .000 Females child -.032 .132 .810 -.078 .200 .695 friend -.067 .128 .602 .370 .240 .123 health status over last 12 -.355 .051 .000 -.506 .090 .000 months financial situation -.300 .054 .000 .079 .102 .442 2 Adjusted R 20.8% 18.8%
    13. 13. Findings • Low explanatory power • Little evidence of the importance of who gives support – but support is important • Partner is positive while friend appears a negative impact!
    14. 14. Conclusions• Populations are ageing and the extended family is decreasing• Social support is very important• Seems more close family support• Little reliance on friends• Smaller networks but level of support is high• Large multipurpose surveys might not be reaching the problem
    15. 15. Survey of Older People in Edinburgh
    16. 16. Mobility Being in a social network is key
    17. 17. Importance of Cars Trends in Driving License holding 70+ 60- 69 100 25- 59 Females 90 17- 24 80 70 Al l Ages Bus and Coach M e 61 - 69 al C Passenger ar 60 M e 70+ al age % W k al 50 Fem e 61 - 69 al 70+ C D i ver ar r 40 Fem e 70+ al 60- 69 30 20 25- 59 Males 10 17- 24 0 Al l Ages 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 20 40 60 80 Year % of t r i ps Difficulty in using Gender Age Bus Taxi Train Car 60-69 yrs 18.87% 5.99% 13.76% 6.44% Male 70+ yrs 26.01% 10.30% 19.68% 10.14% 60-69 yrs 24.29% 9.65% 18.53% 9.46% Female 70+ yrs 40.32% 16.92% 25.83% 15.41%
    18. 18. A time to dance: healthsystems for active retirement Helen Chung Swiss Re This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
    19. 19. A time to dance:Health systems for longer livesHelen Chung MBBS MSc AIA, Head of Medical Research, Swiss ReILC-UK and Actuarial Profession debate, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012
    20. 20. Healthy and active longer lives are a reality for some, and could be for more Source: Chelmsford Borough Council, Older Peoples calendar: Tea dance in the Banqueting Room at Hylands HouseHelen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 20
    21. 21. Challenges for Health Systems: – maintaining good health for longer – staving off ill health – treating and living with disease Social – retirement communities – communities suitable to remain and retire in Financial – affording a healthy longer life – when (and if) to retire?Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 21
    22. 22. Individuals are not saving adequatelyThe average annual amount individuals would have to save in order to achieve aretirement income of 70% of salary (selected countries), EUR14 00012 00010 0008 0006 0004 0002 000 0 United Germany Ireland France Spain Czech Poland Italy Turkey Hungary Kingdom Republic Source: Aviva, 2010Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 22
    23. 23. Can morbidity be compressed? Source: Fries, Booth & Chakravarty, Journal of Aging Research, 2011Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 23
    24. 24. Longer lives come with altered healthcareand prevention needs chronic health problems have had time to accrue over a lifetime multiple chronic diseases are common physiological and social vulnerabilities are greater at oldest ages  increased risk of influenza, disability and falls  slower recovery reduced mobility hampering access to care higher personal care needs Source: WEF 2012: Global Aging: Peril or Promise?Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 24
    25. 25. Changing health systems for changing needs Health systems must evolve in response to the ageing of society to optimise health across the full life course Greater emphasis on prevention and public health Moving from hospital, acute care and institutional care to community-based care Shared responsibilities increase effectiveness and efficiency: individuals to be partners in own care Integration absolutely key: a coordinated continuum Education for health professionals to adapt New models to draw on evidence Source: WEF 2012: Global Aging: Peril or Promise?Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 25
    26. 26. Change your views on retirement Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 26Source: Ocean Gardens Retirement Village, Perth, Australia. www..oceangardens.com.au and iStockphoto/Georgy Markov
    27. 27. Thank you
    28. 28. Legal notice©2012 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are not permitted to create anymodifications or derivatives of this presentation or to use it for commercial orother public purposes without the prior written permission of Swiss Re.Although all the information used was taken from reliable sources, Swiss Redoes not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or comprehensiveness ofthe details given. All liability for the accuracy and completeness thereof or forany damage resulting from the use of the information contained in thispresentation is expressly excluded. Under no circumstances shall Swiss Reor its Group companies be liable for any financial and/or consequential lossrelating to this presentation.Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 28
    29. 29. Scotland’s demography – an aging population George P MacKenzieRegistrar General and Keeper of the Records This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
    30. 30. Scotlands demography - an ageing population George MacKenzie Registrar General and Keeper of the RecordsILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh - 9th February 2012 National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    31. 31. National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    32. 32. Overview of presentation• Introduction• Scotland’s current and future demographic trends• Scotland’s ageing population• Households• Questions National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    33. 33. Estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2010 was 5,222,100 6,000,000 1939 passes 5m Fastest 1900 for the first time percentage largest 5,000,000 increase 1974 rise 1876 and WW2* 5.4m 1912 highest 1878 firstNumber of People 4,000,000 ever estimated 1924 1890 largest level? passes fall 3,000,000 and 4m sharpest 1971 1857 fall largest passes and 2,000,000 3m fastest post WW2 rise 1,000,000 0 1855 1862 1869 1876 1883 1890 1897 1904 1911 1918 1925 1932 1939 1946 1953 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 YearIncrease of 28,100 on 2009, highest since 1977 National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    34. 34. Births, actual1 and projected2, Scotland, 1951-2035 120 Projected2 100 80Persons (000s) 60 40 20 0 1951 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 1 calendar year 2 2010-based mid-year projections National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    35. 35. Deaths in Scotland – main causes 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 CancerCoronary / ischaemic heart disease Stroke / cerebrovascular disease Respiratory system diseases Other circulatory system diseases Digestive system diseases Mental and behavioural disorders Accidents Nervous system diseases Genitourinary system diseases 2000 2010 National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    36. 36. Age 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1981-83 1982-84 1983-85 1984-86 1985-87 1986-88 1987-89 1988-90 1989-91 1990-92 1991-93 1992-94 1993-95 female 1994-96 Year 1995-97 1996-98 1997-99 1998-00 male National Records of Scotland 1999-01 1983 to 2008-2010 2000-02preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future 2001-03 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-07 Life expectancy at birth, Scotland, 1981- 2006-08 2007-09 2008-10
    37. 37. Life expectancy at birth, 95% confidence intervals for Council areas, 2008-2010 (Males and Females) SCOTLAND East Dunbartonshire Perth & Kinross East Renfrewshire Aberdeenshire Stirling Angus Scottish Borders Orkney Islands East Lothian Shetland Islands Edinburgh, City of MALE FEMALE Argyll & Bute Moray Dumfries & Galloway Midlothian Highland Falkirk South Ayrshire Fife Aberdeen City West Lothian South Lanarkshire Clackmannanshire East Ayrshire North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Eilean Siar Dundee Renfrewshire West Dunbartonshire Inverclyde Glasgow City 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86Ordered by lowest male life expectancy to highest Years National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    38. 38. Life expectancy at birth, 95% confidence intervals for Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Deciles, 2008- 2010 (Males and Females) SCOTLAND Leastdeprived 10 9 8 7 6 MALE FEMALE 5 4 3 2 Most 1deprived 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 Ordered by lowest male life expectancy to highest Years National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    39. 39. Healthy life expectancy• Levels for women and men have been gradually increasing since 1980.• In 2010 healthy life expectancy for women was 61.9 years, whilst levels for men were 59.5 years. Average levels of healthy life expectancy decreased by 0.7% between 2009 and 2010. National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    40. 40. Deaths, Scotland, actual1 and projected2, 1951- 2035 70 Projected 2 60 50Persons (000s) 40 30 20 10 0 1951 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 1 calendar year 2 2010-based mid-year projections National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    41. 41. Migration National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    42. 42. Net migration, Scotland, 1951-2035 50 40 Projected 1 30 20Persons (000s) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 1 2010-based projections Year National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    43. 43. Population, Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2035 6,000 5,500 5,000Persons (000s) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Actual 2010-based 2008-based 2006-based National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    44. 44. Scotland’s Census results 90+ 1861 Latest estimate 90+ 2010 1861 85-89 ageing 80-84 Females 2010 75-79 80 Males 70-74 65-69 70 60-64 55-59 60 50-54 Age 45-49 50 population Age 40-44 35-39 40 30-34 25-29 30 20-24 15-19 10-14 20 5-9 0-4 10 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 Population (000s) 0 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 Persons 1931 Male Female 90+ 85-89 80-84 Females 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 Males 1911 50-54 Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 Projected 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 Population (000s) 2021 1961 90+ 90+ 80 2021 85-89 80-84 Females 70 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 Males 1961 60 50 Age 50-54 40 Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30 30-34 25-29 20 20-24 15-19 10 10-14 5-9 0 0-4 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 Persons Population (000s) Male Female 2001 2035 90+ 90+ 85-89 80-84 Females 2001 2035 75-79 80 Males 70-74 65-69 70 60-64 55-59 60 50-54 Age 45-49 50 Age 40-44 35-39 40 30-34 25-29 30 20-24 15-19 20 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 0 Population (000s) 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 Persons Male Female National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    45. 45. Projected changes by age group over the next 25 years• Children (0-15): 3% increase• Working age: 7% increase• State pension age: 26% increase• 75+ : 82% increase• 85+ : 147% increase National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    46. 46. Dependents1 per 100 working age population, Scotland, actual and 80.0 projected, 1951-2035 75.0 Dependents per 100 working age 70.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 1951 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year1 Between 2010 and 2020 the statepension age for women will rise from 60 Actual 2010-based 2008-based 2006-basedto 65 and then between 2024 and 2026will rise for both men and women to66, and rises again to 68 by 2046. National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    47. 47. Pensioners, comparing proposed changes to SPA 1,350,000 1,300,000 1,250,000People of pensionable age 1,200,000 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Year Proposed Pensioners Original Pensioners National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    48. 48. Comparing pensionable age population, if SPA became 70+ by 2035 and current changes 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000Persons 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year People of pensionable age if 70+ in 2035 Current changes to SPA National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    49. 49. As well as producing the principalprojections, there are also a series of variant projections. These are based on different plausible assumptions about fertility, mortality andmigration giving a more complete picture ofwhat we might expect to see in the future. National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    50. 50. Actual and projected total population, Scotland, under the 2010-basedprincipal and selected variant projections, 1981- 9.0 9.0 2085 8.5 HP = High population HM = High migration HP 8.5 HF = High fertility HL = High life expectancy 8.0 P = Principal projection 8.0 LL = Low life expectancy LF = Low fertility 7.5 7.5 LM = Low migration NC = Natural change only HMPopulation (Millions) LP = Low population HF 7.0 7.0 HL 6.5 6.5 P 6.0 6.0 LL 5.5 LF 5.5 LM 5.0 5.0 4.5 NC 4.5 LP 4.0 4.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Year National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    51. 51. Average age of Scotland’s population under the 2010-based principal and selected variant 47 projections, 2010-2035 Natural change 46 Low population 45 Low fertility Low migrationAge in years 44 High life expectancy 43 Principal 42 Low life expectancy 41 High migration 40 High fertility High population 39 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    52. 52. Household change• Household sizes are falling, and more people are living alone.• This means that the number of households is increasing much faster than the population.• Increase in elderly population (who are more likely to live alone).• More people live alone in urban areas, and in more deprived areas. National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    53. 53. Changes in household types 1,400,000 1,200,000 1981 2008 2033 1,000,000Number of households 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1 adult 2 adults 1 adult with 2+ adults with 3+ adults children children Type of household National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    54. 54. Projected percentage of people living alone, 2033 90% Males 80% Females 70%Percentage of people 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Age group National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    55. 55. Questions?For more information please contact:NRS Statistics Customer Servicesemail: customer@gro-scotland.gov.ukTel: 0131 314 4299Or look at our website www.gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    56. 56. Extra information! National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    57. 57. Population increase, comparing selected variants with natural change only 900 projection, 2015-2035 800 700Additional population (000s) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Low Migration Principal High Migration National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    58. 58. Births by mother’s country of birth United Kingdom, Irish Republic All countries of Other European Isle of Man, Non-UK including Ireland, Commonwealth Other countries birth Union Channel Islands part not stated2004 53,957 49,738 4,219 230 844 1,822 1,3192005 54,386 49,711 4,675 272 996 1,942 1,4622006 55,690 50,468 5,222 257 1,326 2,112 1,5252007 57,781 51,431 6,350 303 2,085 2,265 1,6922008 60,041 52,434 7,607 321 2,793 2,657 1,8322009 59,046 51,062 7,984 276 3,032 2,690 1,9862010 58,791 50,615 8,176 297 3,197 2,634 2,048 National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    59. 59. Births in Scotland, by mother’s country of birth, 3,500 2004-2010 3,000 2,500 2,000Births 1,500 1,000 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Irish Republic including Ireland, part not stated Other European Union Commonwealth Other countries National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    60. 60. Comparisons withselected European countries National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    61. 61. Percentage change -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Bulgaria Latvia Lithuania Source: ONS and Eurostat Romania Germany Estonia Hungary Poland Malta Portugal Slovakia Czech Republic Greece EU27 Slovenia Netherlands Austria Finland 2035 Denmark Italy Scotland France Spain National Records of Scotland Northern Ireland Liechtenstein Wales Sweden Belgiumpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future Iceland Switzerland United Kingdom England in selected European countries, 2010- Norway Projected percentage population change Ireland Cyprus Luxembourg
    62. 62. Assumptions about the 2010-based principal and nine variant projections for Scotland Fertility Life expectancy Life expectancy Migration Males (2035) Females (2035)1 Principal projection 1.70 80.9 85.1 +17,500Standard single component variants2 High fertility 1.90 80.9 85.1 +17,5003 Low fertility 1.50 80.9 85.1 +17,5004 High life expectancy 1.70 83.3 86.7 +17,5005 Low life expectancy 1.70 78.4 83.5 +17,5006 High migration 1.70 80.9 85.1 +26,0007 Low migration 1.70 80.9 85.1 +9,000Combination variants8 High population 1.90 83.3 86.7 +26,0009 Low population 1.50 78.4 83.5 +9,000Special case scenario10 Zero migration 1.70 80.9 85.1 0 National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    63. 63. Comparisons withother UK countries National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    64. 64. • UK population is projected to increase from 62.3 million in 2010 to 73.2 million in 2035• An 18% rise (compared to Scotland’s 10%) National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    65. 65. UK countries population 120 growth, 2010-2035 115Index (2010 = 100) 110 105 100 95 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year England Northern Ireland Wales Scotland National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    66. 66. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035 90+ 80 1981 70 60 50Age 40 30 20 10 0 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National PersonsPopulation Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Femaleyear population estimates. National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    67. 67. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035 90+ 80 1991 70 60 50Age 40 30 20 10 0 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National PersonsPopulation Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Femaleyear population estimates. National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    68. 68. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035 90+ 80 2001 70 60 50Age 40 30 20 10 0 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National PersonsPopulation Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Femaleyear population estimates. National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    69. 69. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035 90+ 80 2011 70 60 50Age 40 30 20 10 0 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National PersonsPopulation Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Femaleyear population estimates. National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    70. 70. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035 90+ 80 2021 70 60 50Age 40 30 20 10 0 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National PersonsPopulation Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Femaleyear population estimates. National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    71. 71. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035 90+ 80 2035 70 60 50Age 40 30 20 10 0 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National PersonsPopulation Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Femaleyear population estimates. National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    72. 72. Persons (000s) 0 10 20 30 40 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 1951-1952 1954-1955 1957-1958 1960-1961 1963-1964 1966-1967 1969-1970 1972-1973 1975-1976 1978-1979 1981-1982 1984-1985 Year to 30 June 1987-1988 Estimated net National Records of Scotland 1990-1991 1993-1994 1996-1997preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future 1999-2000 2002-2003 migration, Scotland, 1951-2010 2005-2006 2009-2010
    73. 73. Migration summary:2009-2010 In Out Net 1Rest of UK 47,000 43,500 3,500Overseas 46,100 24,600 21,500 2Total 93,100 68,100 24,900 National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    74. 74. Where are overseas migrants coming from?• ? Roughly: In Out (08-09) (08-09) EU15 40% (35) 20% (40) A8 + A2 15% (10) 10% (10) Commonwealth 25% (30) 35% (30) Other 20% (30) 35% (20)• About 25% of overseas in-migrants are British citizens• About 50% of overseas out-migrants are British citizens National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    75. 75. Migration assumptions• From 2016-17 there is projected to be an annual net gain of 17,500 people to Scotland • +8,500 from rest of UK • +9,000 from overseas• Higher net inflows projected for first 6 years of the projections, reflecting the recent (historically high) levels of in-migration, in particular, A8 migration• Inflows from Eastern European accession countries (A8) assumed to have a net 0 from 2016-17 National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    76. 76. Net migration and natural change, estimated and projected, 1951-2035 50 40 1 Projected 30 20Persons (000s) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 1 2010-based projections Year National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    77. 77. Scotland’s Age Specific Fertility 1983-2010 140 120 30-34 100Births per 1,000 women 25-29 80 20-24 60 35-39 40 Under 20 20 40+ 0 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    78. 78. For Scotland fertility rates are assumed to..• continue to increase for women in their 40s• remain stable for women in their 30s• and fall slightly for women in their 20s• the Total Fertility Rate is projected to remain fairly stable until 2012 before falling to the long- term level National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    79. 79. Children (0-15)• 0.91 million in 2010• Rises to peak of 0.97 million in 2023• 0.94 million in 2035• A increase of 3% over the 25 years National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    80. 80. Working Age• 3.27 million in 2010• Rises to peak of 3.50 million in 2026• Falls slightly to 3.46 million in 2033• Rises to 3.50 million in 2035• An increase of 7% over 25 years• Takes into account changes in state pension age National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
    81. 81. Pension Age• 1.04 million in 2010• 1.32 million in 2035• An increase of 26%• Takes into account changes in state pension age National Records of Scotland preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

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