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Getting the Right Picture
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Developing targets is one of the major issues in the aviation industry. In the recent time, many aviation sources predict different figures, based on their own analysis, and sight for the global aviation market. The dilemma, that, there is no basic rules for the predictors, especially aircrafts manufacture companies.
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It is three page analysis for FCO airport - Aeroporti de Roma i.e 2018-2019-2020
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Developing targets is one of the major issues in the aviation industry. In the recent time, many aviation sources predict different figures, based on their own analysis, and sight for the global aviation market. The dilemma, that, there is no basic rules for the predictors, especially aircrafts manufacture companies.
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In this paper we give the idea for operations of Annual survey of Industrial data for Delhi, NCR for the year 2008-09 to 2011-12 with complete analysis. The Implementation of Industrial Statistical concept like Process Control, Six Sigma, estimation and forecasting, elasticity, correlation and regression analysis and other quantitative quality programs, courses and general statistical methods is the big challenges for industry sector with usual utilization. The new initiative of this work is to analysis the relationship between correlation coefficient and elasticity of major industrial characteristics with estimation the trend and forecasted for future. The considered major characteristics are input capacity and output of industry along with net income and total cost. Emphasis has been given on utilization of industrial statistics concept for industry so that optimum production occurred with best utilization of raw material in limited cost. This paper also established the statistical relationships of interactions in the labour market between employers and the intervention in these relations by governments/government agencies or others.
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This is the third issue of yemenia focus, it address the evaluation of two yemenia station i.e Jeddah and Doha, which the best one that earned a max passengers per flight.
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Recently Airberlin reduce their capacity, by concentrating on a more profitable routes, Logically if we are squeezing the capacity (ASK)- SUPPLY , the other part – DEMAND will force to pump out i.e (RPK), then how we can get the complete picture, for 2016, definitely the load Factor should be increase in normal cases, … for this issue , there are two scenarios or results, first if the load factor increase significantly the Airberlin absorb the pressure of shifting their markets by increase the frequencies on their specific route which also aircrafts assist in this process by accepting more passengers than the usual figure in previous periods. But if the load factor is stable it means that a part of airberlin market spill to other competitors, and they are losing their markets ,yes the only benefits from this is the revenue or more specifically the YIELD, i.e is Yield is high enough to implement this reduction if so then they are in a safe side. While the cost will comes down due to the reduction in operation, means reduction in the variable cost.
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Seven Performance Factors that Turkish airline are addressing in their reports , Mainly , Number of Landing, Available Seat Km, Revenue Passenger Km, Passengers Load Factor (%) , Passenger Carried, Cargo And Mails, Km Flown. So most of airlines working on a clear objectives and that’s come with clear targets which lead us to set a clear picture of forecasting process. Most of the results are fairs except Load Factor, the outcome is poor
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Five business Units that Icelandair addressing in their reports , Mainly 1- International Flights, 2- Regional And Greenland Flights, 3- Charter Flights, 4- Cargo, 5- Hotels, - Four are analyzed while Charter Flights is not (as no seasonality patterned ). - The analysis is concentrated on the main KPIs as PAX, ASKs, L/F,. ATKs, FTKs, and Room Utilizations. - So most of airlines working on a clear objectives and that’s come with clear targets which lead us to set a clear picture of forecasting process. - Based on that, our objective is to develop a clear message for top managements for the key performance figures of the airline, not just to compare month by month approach but to develop the right path ( time series ) in the future to set the right targets which consequently develop K.P. I for the airlines
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Reading in the future, it is the third forecasting study concerning IAG, it is addressing the best forecasting scenario approach for setting targets and developing the level of key performance indicators for Airlines, as Load Factor, ASK, and RPK, as demonstrated by airline investors monthly /annually reports. While the message of this study is to highlight the benefits of Setting Goals and Targets, thus airlines can developed an effective KPI System instead of looking backward – using month by month approach - to compare current performance with past performance instead of achieving targets.
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Reading In The Future, it is a series of forecasting presentations, concerning airlines, most of the airlines addressing their performance of current month for current year to the same month of the previous year, i.e is month by month comparison by looking backward, no target setting/ level to achieve. Today the story is different and the approach is unique, airlines can define their seasonality patterned and consequently set their targets in future, and it is your decision to look backward and stick on it, or move onward by setting your targets and try to achieve them..
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In 2012, a forecasting 2013 report for Malta International Airport is DONE, today, a second report is delivered, and using the same previous model, the result is fair and acceptable, using MAX/MIN signal tracking approach. Also update for the figures is done to forecast 2015.
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2015 Forecast for Frankfurt Airport, using max/min Signal Tracking Approach, we get a fair results , Finally the result tablet for Comparison.
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“Plans are nothing; planning is everything” One of the main factors for successes is good planning, especially when we plan for futures as to design objectives and set targets, but the issue when we plan for targets from some raw data, that may have concurrent results or figures as the case of Amsterdam airport. Really to set concurrent figures to get the same target is a hard task, So how to solve this dilemma!!!
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Getting the Right Picture
1.
Aviation Forecasting GETTING THE RIGHT PICTURE
By: Mohammed Salem Awad Consultant
2.
Outline Airline Forecasting Model Evaluation
of Forecasting Model IATA Economic Analysis 2011 3 Years Data (Input) Head To Head Analysis Model Fairness Getting The Right Picture Contact 12/9/2011 2
3.
Airline Forecasting Model 12/9/2011
3
4.
Evaluation of Forecasting Model
(R2 and T. S.) Evaluation Forecasting 12/9/2011 4 R 2 = Coef. Of Determination T. S. = Tracking Signal
5.
IATA Economic Analysis 2011 12/9/2011
5
6.
IATA Economic Analysis 2011
( 3 years period ) 12/9/2011 6
7.
IATA Economic Analysis 2011
( 3 years period ) 3 Years Period 12/9/2011 7
8.
IATA Economic Analysis
Vs Model Forecast, Head to Head Analysis 12/9/2011 8
9.
Model Fairness
Since R2 > 80% AND -4 < T.S.< 4 12/9/2011 9
10.
Comparison GETTING THE RIGHT
PICTURE 12/9/2011 10
11.
Contact Mohammed Salem Awad Consultant Tel:
736255814 Email: smartdecision2002@yahoo.com 12/9/2011 11