• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
2008 oil trading presentation
 

2008 oil trading presentation

on

  • 1,349 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,349
Views on SlideShare
1,349
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
30
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    2008 oil trading presentation 2008 oil trading presentation Presentation Transcript

    • Trading Oil & Energy related Derivatives Troy Lavin 16 th January 2008 Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Quick Introduction
      • Broker for Man Financial
      • Trader for Glencore
      • Now trading my own fund
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Going to cover…
      • Background to Crude Oil
      • The Futures Market
      • How I trade
      • Outlook 2008
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Why Trade Oil?
      • It’s interesting:
        • Most important commodity in the world
        • Most political commodity
      • It’s transparent, liquid, highly leveraged
      • Many trading opportunities
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • When Oil got Interesting
      • OPEC formed in 1960
      • Oil shocks 1973 & 1979
      • World recession, fuel efficiency, insulation, exploration, alternative fuel sources, International Energy Agency (IEA), SPR
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Types of Oil
      • Oil quality varies by deposit
      • Ease of refinement - light/heavy, sweet/sour
      • Benchmark crudes - WTI, Brent, Dubai
      • Product derivatives - Gasoline, Heating oil, Gas Oil, Jet fuel
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • The Futures Market
      • Spot vs. Futures
      • Futures market began in 1983 in US (1988 in UK)
      • Most liquid and transparent way to trade oil
      • Desert Storm - Aug. 1990 to Jan. 1991: Birth of the modern oil market
      • Backwardation and contango
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Backwardation vs Contango Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Market Participants
      • Friends
        • Producers
        • Consumers
        • Refiners
      • Enemies
        • Institutions
        • Funds
        • Locals
        • Private Traders
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Shillingstone Ltd.
    • New Game - Perfect Storm!
      • Security of supply drove prices
      • Demand now driving prices - China/India
      • Era of cheap money
      • Fund effect has been felt everywhere
      • US Dollar Depreciation
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • An Average Day
      • 08.30 - Singapore Pricing
      • 09.30 - London opening
      • 11.00 - East Coast US waking up
      • 14.00 - NYMEX officially opens
      • 16.30 - London pricing
      • 19.30 - NYMEX/ICE settlements
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Wednesday – Stats Day
      • US Energy Statistics – 15:30
      • DOE Vs API
      • Petroleum Administration for Defence Districts (PADD) …… 5 PADDs
      • PADD 3 – Major Import and Refining Region
      • Crude PADD 2 (Mid West)
      • Heat PADD 1 (East Coast)
      • Gasoline PADDs 1&5 (West Coast)
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Shillingstone Ltd.
    • An Average Year
      • Q1 - Fund activity - winter in the West prepare for US driving season
      • Q2 - Market tops Apr-May
      • Q3 - Hurricane season - end of US driving season
      • Q4 - Profit taking - prepare for cold weather and New Year
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • How I trade
      • Full Time Trader
      • Look for patterns, trends, anomalies
      • Not afraid to book profits, cut losses
      • Trade short term on flat price
      • Trade longer term on spreads, arbs, etc
      • Fund activity - turn of each quarter
      • GSCI - day 5 to 9 each month
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Two Schools of Thought
      • Fundamentals
        • Economics
        • Supply/demand
        • Geopolitics
      • Technicals
        • Sophisticated charting
        • Black box funds
        • Historical data
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Technical Thoughts
      • KISS - Keep it Simple, Stupid
      • Moving Averages - 5/20, 8/34, 100/200
      • Trends - lines and channels
      • Relative strength - RSI and Stochastic
      • Japanese Candlesticks - visually effective
      • No silver bullet
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Basic Trading Rules
      • Protect your war chest - 2% rule, Keynes
      • Trend is your friend
      • Avoid the more-on trade
      • Discipline - cut losses, stick to a winning formula
      • Patience - trades need time and room
      • Keep your emotions in check
      • Take a break…
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Outlook 2008
      • $100 was a target - OPEC’s thoughts
      • China/India not going away but commodities may have got carried away
      • US elections - economy and $ effect
      • Nigeria
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Supply Issues
      • Peak oil production?
      • Iraq - US pull out…civil war?
      • Iran - nuclear ambitions?
      • Saudi Arabia - Al Qaeda
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Demand Issues
      • US Recession
      • Credit Crunch - Worldwide Effects
      • US Dollar Direction
      • Fuel Efficiency, Green Issues, Nuclear
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Oil Trading Resources
      • Websites: EIA, API, WTRG, Reuters, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, TWC
      • Books: Trading for a Living, Market Wizards
      • Daily: Platts, PIRA, Gartman Letter
      Shillingstone Ltd.
    • Questions & Answers Shillingstone Ltd.