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The American Attribution Index:  Using Advertising Attribution Management to Improve Media Mix Allocation Thursday, October 1, 2009 1 PM EDT Speakers: Adam Goldberg PurushPapatla
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Published in top-tier marketing journals» Marketing Science» Journal of Marketing Research» Journal of Business Research» Journal of Retailing» Journal of Interactive Marketing
CLEARSALEINGDEFINED Clear’-Sale’ing (klir sāl ing) n.   1. an advertising technology and analytics company  2.the only effective way to manage an online advertising portfolio and          increase profit (ROI) for online advertisers v.   1. continually improving the ROI of online advertising campaigns       2. easily andtransparently increasing sales and profits
The American Attribution Index:  Using Advertising Attribution Management to Improve Media Mix Allocation Thursday, October 1, 2009 1 PM EDT Speakers: Adam Goldberg PurushPapatla
EVOLUTIONOF ATTRIBUTION MANAGEMENT Last Click Even Exclusions Rules Based Mathematical
Poll Question 1 Currently, how are you attributing conversion credit to your various ad sources? Last click Other attribution method
The American Attribution Index (AAI) is the first-ever attribution management index that measures the relative effectiveness of each online advertising source and influence factor on consumer purchases and conversions.  THE AMERICAN ATTRIBUTION INDEX (AAI)
THREE SUBSETS OF AAI AAI:  Aggregate Indices AAI:  Vertical Industry Indices AAI:  Company-Specific Indices
AAI AGGREGATE INDICES The Aggregate Indices serve as important barometers of each advertising source’s relative impact and influence on consumers' purchasing decisions. Since they represent an aggregate measure across all industries and companies, the Aggregate Indices should not be used to make advertising allocation decisions for a specific company.
AAI AGGREGATE INDICES The Aggregate Indices can be used, however, to gain strategic insight into the relative influence and trends of the respective advertising sources in general.
AAI AGGREGATE INDICES MAKEUP Given that company size and level of advertising budget often dictate the range and mix of advertising sources employed, the AAI: Aggregate will be comprised of 3 sub-indices:  ,[object Object]
 Medium Advertisers $300K to $2M yr in online ad spend
 Small Advertisers < $300K yr in online ad spend* The size breakdown could change in the future
NO HYPOTHESIS
STATISTICAL MODELS & DISCRETE DATA ANALYSES
    INFLUENCE POTENTIAL
 RATE OF DECAY
ABANDONED PATHS
PURCHASE AND ABANDONED PATHS 1,300,000+ 500,000+ Purchase 800,000+ Abandoned
STEP1 ClearSaleing and Vetra Analytics built several statistical models to evaluate visitor buying behavior using Purchase Path data collected by the ClearSaleing platform for a particular company.
STEP 2 Next, the models were tested and calibrated against actual historical data to ensure that the models were able to perform well in capturing, explaining and predicting buyer behavior.
STEP 3 The best model was then selected. Using the outputs of this model, channel-specific attributions were developed.
STEP 4 Next, the channel-specific attributions were used to develop influence weights for each channel (advertising source), where the influence weight represented how much influence a given source had in affecting a visitor’s decision to buy or not buy.
STEP 5 These four steps were then repeated for multiple companies in multiple industry sectors.
STEP 6 The companies were then segmented based on several criteria, such as total ad-spend or the company&apos;s vertical industry.
STEP 6 The influence weights were then aggregated across companies within a segment.
STEP 6 Segment-specific indices were then developed: AAI: Aggregate AAI: Vertical Industry Indices
THE AMERICAN ATTRIBUTION INDEX
Poll Question 2 What challenges have you run into when trying to build an attribution model? 	1. Our technology cannot track beyond the last ad clicked 	2. We cannot build a sound mathematical model 	3. We cannot incorporate offline, social media, and word of mouth advertising 	4. All of the above 	5. We haven’t tried to build an attribution model
ATTRIBUTES OF AD SOURCES
FURTHER ATTRIBUTES OF AD SOURCES  Google Other Model Number Product Name Competitor General
MODELINGTHE INFLUENCE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE POTENTIALof an influencer = f (# of exposures,  when each of the exposures occurred, 		decay rate of the effect of exposures)

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The American Attribution Index: Using Attribution Management to Improve Media Mix Allocation

  • 1. The American Attribution Index: Using Advertising Attribution Management to Improve Media Mix Allocation Thursday, October 1, 2009 1 PM EDT Speakers: Adam Goldberg PurushPapatla
  • 2.
  • 7. Q+A session at end of webcast
  • 8. Use “Ask a Question” box to submit questions
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Published in top-tier marketing journals» Marketing Science» Journal of Marketing Research» Journal of Business Research» Journal of Retailing» Journal of Interactive Marketing
  • 12. CLEARSALEINGDEFINED Clear’-Sale’ing (klir sāl ing) n. 1. an advertising technology and analytics company 2.the only effective way to manage an online advertising portfolio and increase profit (ROI) for online advertisers v. 1. continually improving the ROI of online advertising campaigns 2. easily andtransparently increasing sales and profits
  • 13. The American Attribution Index: Using Advertising Attribution Management to Improve Media Mix Allocation Thursday, October 1, 2009 1 PM EDT Speakers: Adam Goldberg PurushPapatla
  • 14. EVOLUTIONOF ATTRIBUTION MANAGEMENT Last Click Even Exclusions Rules Based Mathematical
  • 15. Poll Question 1 Currently, how are you attributing conversion credit to your various ad sources? Last click Other attribution method
  • 16. The American Attribution Index (AAI) is the first-ever attribution management index that measures the relative effectiveness of each online advertising source and influence factor on consumer purchases and conversions. THE AMERICAN ATTRIBUTION INDEX (AAI)
  • 17. THREE SUBSETS OF AAI AAI: Aggregate Indices AAI: Vertical Industry Indices AAI: Company-Specific Indices
  • 18. AAI AGGREGATE INDICES The Aggregate Indices serve as important barometers of each advertising source’s relative impact and influence on consumers&apos; purchasing decisions. Since they represent an aggregate measure across all industries and companies, the Aggregate Indices should not be used to make advertising allocation decisions for a specific company.
  • 19. AAI AGGREGATE INDICES The Aggregate Indices can be used, however, to gain strategic insight into the relative influence and trends of the respective advertising sources in general.
  • 20.
  • 21. Medium Advertisers $300K to $2M yr in online ad spend
  • 22. Small Advertisers < $300K yr in online ad spend* The size breakdown could change in the future
  • 24. STATISTICAL MODELS & DISCRETE DATA ANALYSES
  • 25. INFLUENCE POTENTIAL
  • 26. RATE OF DECAY
  • 28. PURCHASE AND ABANDONED PATHS 1,300,000+ 500,000+ Purchase 800,000+ Abandoned
  • 29. STEP1 ClearSaleing and Vetra Analytics built several statistical models to evaluate visitor buying behavior using Purchase Path data collected by the ClearSaleing platform for a particular company.
  • 30. STEP 2 Next, the models were tested and calibrated against actual historical data to ensure that the models were able to perform well in capturing, explaining and predicting buyer behavior.
  • 31. STEP 3 The best model was then selected. Using the outputs of this model, channel-specific attributions were developed.
  • 32. STEP 4 Next, the channel-specific attributions were used to develop influence weights for each channel (advertising source), where the influence weight represented how much influence a given source had in affecting a visitor’s decision to buy or not buy.
  • 33. STEP 5 These four steps were then repeated for multiple companies in multiple industry sectors.
  • 34. STEP 6 The companies were then segmented based on several criteria, such as total ad-spend or the company&apos;s vertical industry.
  • 35. STEP 6 The influence weights were then aggregated across companies within a segment.
  • 36. STEP 6 Segment-specific indices were then developed: AAI: Aggregate AAI: Vertical Industry Indices
  • 38. Poll Question 2 What challenges have you run into when trying to build an attribution model? 1. Our technology cannot track beyond the last ad clicked 2. We cannot build a sound mathematical model 3. We cannot incorporate offline, social media, and word of mouth advertising 4. All of the above 5. We haven’t tried to build an attribution model
  • 39. ATTRIBUTES OF AD SOURCES
  • 40. FURTHER ATTRIBUTES OF AD SOURCES Google Other Model Number Product Name Competitor General
  • 41. MODELINGTHE INFLUENCE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE POTENTIALof an influencer = f (# of exposures, when each of the exposures occurred, decay rate of the effect of exposures)
  • 42. HOW TO DO CALCULATIONON INDIVIDUAL PATHS Take weights of ad sources from pie chart Normalize the ad sources used in that Path to 100% Example -&gt;
  • 44. Poll Question 3 How do you see your company incorporating Attribution Management into your marketing decisions going forward? 1.) Build an in-house technical solution 2.) Purchase a third party solution 3.) Rely on your current agency or hire an agency 4.) Use the tools you have today
  • 45. REGULAR ONGOING ACCESS TO AAI CRITICAL (1) the continual addition of more and more data from the new companies who join AAI (2) changes that occur in macroeconomic environmental factors (3) changes that occur in advertising options and measurement technology.
  • 48. ANECDOTAL’REASONS’ BEHIND THE RESULTS Why are there such differences in weights between companies that have different ad spend? Why does email and comparison shopping have such little influence? What changes do we expect to see as more company’s data is incorporated into the AAI?
  • 50. Questions? Adam Goldberg- www.attributionmanagement.com info@attributionmanagement.com www.clearsaleing.com www.searchmarketingnow.com webcasts@searchmarketingnow.com Upcoming SMN webcast: October 13, PPC Negative Keywords: Maximizing the Positive Effect

Editor's Notes

  1. If we want to go beyond first click, last click, or even attribution do you provide guidance and/or professional services to help us build custom attribution models?