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5c  long tail epooley pdf 5c long tail epooley pdf Document Transcript

  • 22-10-2009 Chris Anderson Editor en Jefe, Revista Wired Distribución estadística donde una amplia frecuencia de población (aprox. 20%) es seguida por una b baja f frecuencia ( b (o baja amplitud) d l l d) de la población que disminuye gradualmente. En otras palabras, el 20% de las acciones explican el 80% de los resultados. La sugerencia es centrarse en ese 20%. 1
  • 22-10-2009 Pero, en muchos casos, los acontecimientos de baja frecuencia o escasa amplitud j p pueden abarcar la mayor parte del gráfico. A esto se le llama Larga Cola, la parte amarilla del gráfico. Vender MENOS de MAS 2
  • 22-10-2009 En 1988, un montañista Británico, Joe Simpson escribió el libro Tocando el Vacío, contando la historia de su casi muerte en Los Andes Andes. Recibió excelentes críticas, pero un éxito moderado y fue olvidado. 10 años después, Jon Krakauer escribió Mal de Altura, otro libro acerca de tragedias sobre escalado de montañas, que se convirtió en un best-seller. Repentinamente Tocando el Vacío comenzó a vender nuevamente. 3
  • 22-10-2009 Recomendaciones de libros similares en Amazon. Consecuencias: La editorial apuró una nueva edición para satisfacer la demanda. Las librerías comenzaron a promocionarlo cerca del libro Mal de Altura, y las ventas aumentaron aún más. 14 semanas en las listas de más vendidos del New York Times. El 2003, IFC Films estrenó un docudrama sobre la historia críticamente aclamada. Tocando el Vacío vende el doble que Mal de Altura. Amazon creó el fenómeno de Tocando el Vacío al combinar el espacio infinito de la plataforma con la información a tiempo real sobre tendencias de compra y opinión pública. 4
  • 22-10-2009 La gente está adentrándose más a los catálogos de sitios como Netflix, iTunes Store yAAmazon.com, a sus largas listas d títulos l li de í l disponibles, más allá de los ofrecidos, en estanterías, en Blockbuster Video, Tower Records, y Barnes & Noble. Las ventas de los productos menos masivos (“fracasos”), en su totalidad logran producir grandes ventas a l di i d las distintas compañías que ñí mantienen sus negocios en plataformas digitales, de grandes canales de distribución. 5
  • 22-10-2009 Chris Anderson started this with an article in Wired about two years ago. He claimed that half the books y g sold at Amazon were obscure books not offered in any conventional bookstore. (He’s backed off to perhaps 25%) Thus, he argues, the Internet is encouraging an e o ous amount of specialized creativity o enormous a ou t o spec a ed c eat ty for specialized interests. 6
  • 22-10-2009 Some kinds of media don’t lend themselves to mass production. Poetry reading and lectures, for example, are pretty restricted in the number of people who can attend a performance. On the other extreme is short-wave radio, which can reach large parts of the planet. Enormous numbers of people could listen at once. If there are large economies of scale – if making many copies isn’t as expensive (per copy) as making a few, then economics encourages a few “blockbusters”. For example, radio i an example of economy of scale; l di is l f f l the radio station incurs no additional cost when more people listen to it. And if there are high startup costs – if it is difficult for somebody to get into the business – that also encourages a f few mass-market producers. Y k t d You can’t ’t easily start a new radio station because you need an FCC license. 7
  • 22-10-2009 -Inthe 18th century, with type held in wooden forms and printed on wooden presses by hand, it was hard to make more than 300-500 copies in a single press run. S books and newspapers appeared i great So b k d d in t variety and were often distributed only locally. - -In the 19th century, steam presses, iron presses, and machine-made paper meant that you could have press runs of tens of thousands of copies. - - Nowadays, you can hardly afford to turn on a real binding machine unless you have 2,000 copies to put through it, and every airport bookstall has the same John Grisham and Danielle Steel novels. Even if you ought to print many copies, you can choose whether to focus on books that will sell them quickly or over th l i kl the long t term. AAccording t J di to Jason Epstein (founder of Anchor Books, and thus inventor of trade paperbacks), until the 1970s book publishers focused on the backlist potential of a new book: would it sell for many years? That meant returns were not a problem: the copies would eventually sell But in the 1970s perhaps as a sell. 1970s, function of rising interest rates, income tax law changes, and buyouts of publishers, the book business changed to emphasize best-sellers that would sell quickly. 8
  • 22-10-2009 Well, there are enormous economies of scale. It’s almost free to have more people access y p p your web page (not quite true, since if the volume gets high enough you need more servers and your ISP charges you more, but it’s pretty cheap). But there are no startup costs. Anybody can get a website and start serving up pages. g pp g So the Internet could go either way, and some years ago I would ask this question and say I didn’t know the answer. Amazon, as part of its competition with Barnes & Noble, tries to advertise how many books it has for sale. It scrounges through every publisher it can find, g g yp , plus every out of print book it can find, and claims to sell more than 5,000,000 books. No physical bookstore, realistically, can sell more than about 100,000 books. The whole town of Hay- on-Wye has something like 1,000,000 books for sale. y g , , Chris’ discovery: perhaps ¼ of the books sold by Amazon are not in the top 100,000; and would thus not be sold by any “brick-and-mortar” bookstore. 9
  • 22-10-2009 The Internet is going for many diverse sources, rather than a few “blockbusters” (a somewhat unfortunate term; it derives from a bomb used by the RAF in World War II, which literally destroyed an entire block of houses). It thus represents a chance for obscure voices, whether people who have interests in the railway history of Alberta or your local teenagers starting a rock band, to find the few people who want to listen to them and distribute their work. In the 1950s, at its peak, 70% of American households would be tu ed into a ep sode ouse o ds ou d tuned to an episode of “I Love Lucy”. Today the top show (CSI: somewhere or other) has an audience share of about 18%. As recently as 15 years ago, that wouldn’t have made the top ten. Instead, people watch selections from the 500 cable channels we now have, or from YouTube. 10
  • 22-10-2009 The biggest music retailer in the United States is Wal-Mart, and they sell some 2 400 CD with perhaps 40 000 2,400 CDs, i h h 40,000 tracks on them. iTunes has 2 M tracks – P2P has perhaps 9M - there are probably 25M tracks in total 40% of Rhapsody sales total. are beyond the first 40,000. People are, in aggregate, listening to a lot more than top-40; even though top- 40 is all you can find on the radio or in Wal-Mart. Blockbuster Video gets some 90% of its rentals from the new theatrical releases. Netflix offers 40,000 DVDs; and its sales are 30% new releases and 70% others. They claim that recommendations recommendations, searching, and other techniques encourage people to expand their choices in movies. 11
  • 22-10-2009 YouTube is now seeing 100M downloads a day. Its viewership is comparable to a network. Counterargument: if each download is watched for a minute or so, that’s 2 M hours of watching; ordinary TV gets 500 times that much attention. Personally I find it hard to see the difference between y YouTube and “Amazing Home Videos”. But YouTube is growing, and network TV is dropping. Competition between Amazon and Barnes and Noble has greatly increased the number of books you can readily purchased; Amazon now has 5M books for sale and Abebooks has 45M. There are now over 80,000 publishers in the US and they publish more than 200,000 books per year. Both numbers are rising rapidly as the low-grade books can find an audience. 12
  • 22-10-2009 13
  • 22-10-2009 14
  • 22-10-2009 Plataforma digital: Costos de almacenaje e inventarios son marginales, resulta rentable g , vender elementos poco populares. No hay costos de “estanterías”. No es necesario un estante o vitrina para promocionar un producto. Además, los catálogos se pueden ver desde cualquier parte del mundo. mundo Marketing: Existen muchas herramientas digitales para p g p promocionar p productos: Web blogs, podcasting y wikis: recomendaciones Etiquetados Sociales (tags): categorización Redes sociales: publicidad, “boca a boca” Sindicación de contenidos (RSS): todo en una página. 15
  • 22-10-2009 TAMAÑOS DE ONLINE OFFLINE CATALOGO POR INDUSTRIA MUSICA 8.000.000 40.000 LIBROS 2.300.000 130.000 PELICULAS 80.000 80 000 70.000 70 000 OJO: Todas compiten con todas!!! Google: Debido a que existen búsquedas p personalizadas, hay p , y publicidad enfocada p para cada tipo de búsqueda. Banca: Existe una gran variedad de productos y servicios (préstamos, créditos, seguros, fondos de inversión, planes de pensiones, etc.), con cientos de variaciones, es decir, una larga cola. 16
  • 22-10-2009 3 Reglas del Long Tail (LT) 17
  • 22-10-2009 18
  • 22-10-2009 Vender MENOS de MAS… 19
  • 22-10-2009 Chris Anderson, Wired 20
  • 22-10-2009 “Waste is Good” Alan Kay, Xerox PARC (1972) 21
  • 22-10-2009 “Over 2775.261837 megabytes (and counting) of free storage so you'll never need to delete another message” (Remember “Your mailbox is full”? What was that about?) 22
  • 22-10-2009 23
  • 22-10-2009 Scarcity Abundance Scarcity Abundance 24
  • 22-10-2009 Scarcity Abundance Scarcity Abundance 25
  • 22-10-2009 Scarcity Abundance NYT CNN WashPost AP BBC SF Chron Guardian Yomiuri Wired Boston Times UK GlobeForbes Time Fox News Biz Week PBS NPR MNSBC News CBS MTV CBS News CNN Telegrap T l CBCS d CBC.ca Sydney Money SJ Merc Chic Trib Reuters Economis IHT WSJ FTSPN E h Morning Post- PR t Herald Gazette Newswire 26
  • 22-10-2009 = = 27
  • 22-10-2009 28
  • 22-10-2009 Scarcity: “NO” Abundance: “YES” 29
  • 22-10-2009 Scarcity y Abundance ROI Memo We’ll figure it out Scarcity y Abundance “Everything is “Everything is forbidden permitted unless it is unless it is permitted” forbidden” 30
  • 22-10-2009 Scarcity y Abundance Paternalism Egalitarianism (“we know (“you know what’s best”) at s best ) what’s best”)) Scarcity y Abundance Top-down Bottoms-up 31
  • 22-10-2009 Scarcity y Abundance Command and Out of Control Control 32
  • 22-10-2009 Blog: thelongtail.com 33