5c long tail epooley pdf

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5c long tail epooley pdf

  1. 1. 22-10-2009 1 Chris Anderson Editor en Jefe, Revista Wired Distribución estadística donde una amplia frecuencia de población (aprox. 20%) es seguida b f ( b l d) d lpor una baja frecuencia (o baja amplitud) de la población que disminuye gradualmente. En otras palabras, el 20% de las acciones explican el 80% de los resultados. La sugerencia es centrarse en ese 20%.
  2. 2. 22-10-2009 2 Pero, en muchos casos, los acontecimientos de baja frecuencia o escasa amplitudj p pueden abarcar la mayor parte del gráfico. A esto se le llama Larga Cola, la parte amarillaamarilla del gráfico. Vender MENOS de MAS
  3. 3. 22-10-2009 3 En 1988, un montañista Británico, Joe Simpson escribió el libro Tocando el Vacío, contando la historia de su casi muerte en Los Andeshistoria de su casi muerte en Los Andes. Recibió excelentes críticas, pero un éxito moderado y fue olvidado. 10 años después, Jon Krakauer escribió Mal de Altura, otro libro acerca de tragedias sobre escalado de montañas, que se convirtió en un best-seller. Repentinamente Tocando el Vacío comenzó a vender nuevamente.
  4. 4. 22-10-2009 4 Recomendaciones de libros similares en Amazon. Consecuencias: La editorial apuró una nueva edición para satisfacer la demanda.demanda. Las librerías comenzaron a promocionarlo cerca del libro Mal de Altura, y las ventas aumentaron aún más. 14 semanas en las listas de más vendidos del New York Times. El 2003, IFC Films estrenó un docudrama sobre la historia críticamente aclamada. Tocando el Vacío vende el doble que Mal de Altura. Amazon creó el fenómeno de Tocando el Vacío al combinar el espacio infinito de la plataforma con la información a tiempo real sobre tendencias de compra y opinión pública.
  5. 5. 22-10-2009 5 La gente está adentrándose más a los catálogos de sitios como Netflix, iTunes Store A l li d í ly Amazon.com, a sus largas listas de títulos disponibles, más allá de los ofrecidos, en estanterías, en Blockbuster Video, Tower Records, y Barnes & Noble. Las ventas de los productos menos masivos (“fracasos”), en su totalidad logran producir d l di i ñígrandes ventas a las distintas compañías que mantienen sus negocios en plataformas digitales, de grandes canales de distribución.
  6. 6. 22-10-2009 6 Chris Anderson started this with an article in Wired about two years ago. He claimed that half the booksy g sold at Amazon were obscure books not offered in any conventional bookstore. (He’s backed off to perhaps 25%) Thus, he argues, the Internet is encouraging an enormous amount of specialized creativity fore o ous a ou t o spec a ed c eat ty o specialized interests.
  7. 7. 22-10-2009 7 Some kinds of media don’t lend themselves to mass production. Poetry reading and lectures, for example, are pretty restricted in the number of people who can attend a performance. On the other extreme is short-wave radio, which can reach large parts of the planet. Enormous numbers of people could listen at once. If there are large economies of scale – if making many copies isn’t as expensive (per copy) as making a few, then economics encourages a few “blockbusters”. For l di i l f f lexample, radio is an example of economy of scale; the radio station incurs no additional cost when more people listen to it. And if there are high startup costs – if it is difficult for somebody to get into the business – that also f k t d Y ’tencourages a few mass-market producers. You can’t easily start a new radio station because you need an FCC license.
  8. 8. 22-10-2009 8 -In the 18th century, with type held in wooden forms and printed on wooden presses by hand, it was hard to make more than 300-500 copies in a single press S b k d d i trun. So books and newspapers appeared in great variety and were often distributed only locally. - - In the 19th century, steam presses, iron presses, and machine-made paper meant that you could have press runs of tens of thousands of copies. - - Nowadays, you can hardly afford to turn on a real binding machine unless you have 2,000 copies to put through it, and every airport bookstall has the same John Grisham and Danielle Steel novels. Even if you ought to print many copies, you can choose whether to focus on books that will sell them i kl th l t A di t Jquickly or over the long term. According to Jason Epstein (founder of Anchor Books, and thus inventor of trade paperbacks), until the 1970s book publishers focused on the backlist potential of a new book: would it sell for many years? That meant returns were not a problem: the copies would eventually sell But in the 1970s perhaps as awould eventually sell. But in the 1970s, perhaps as a function of rising interest rates, income tax law changes, and buyouts of publishers, the book business changed to emphasize best-sellers that would sell quickly.
  9. 9. 22-10-2009 9 Well, there are enormous economies of scale. It’s almost free to have more people access your webp p y page (not quite true, since if the volume gets high enough you need more servers and your ISP charges you more, but it’s pretty cheap). But there are no startup costs. Anybody can get a website and start serving up pages.g p p g So the Internet could go either way, and some years ago I would ask this question and say I didn’t know the answer. Amazon, as part of its competition with Barnes & Noble, tries to advertise how many books it has for sale. It scrounges through every publisher it can find,g g y p , plus every out of print book it can find, and claims to sell more than 5,000,000 books. No physical bookstore, realistically, can sell more than about 100,000 books. The whole town of Hay- on-Wye has something like 1,000,000 books for sale.y g , , Chris’ discovery: perhaps ¼ of the books sold by Amazon are not in the top 100,000; and would thus not be sold by any “brick-and-mortar” bookstore.
  10. 10. 22-10-2009 10 The Internet is going for many diverse sources, rather than a few “blockbusters” (a somewhat unfortunate term; it derives from a bomb used by the RAF in World War II, which literally destroyed an entire block of houses). It thus represents a chance for obscure voices, whether people who have interests in the railway history of Alberta or your local teenagers starting a rock band, to find the few people who want to listen to them and distribute their work. In the 1950s, at its peak, 70% of American households would be tuned into an episodeouse o ds ou d be tu ed to a ep sode of “I Love Lucy”. Today the top show (CSI: somewhere or other) has an audience share of about 18%. As recently as 15 years ago, that wouldn’t have made the top ten.have made the top ten. Instead, people watch selections from the 500 cable channels we now have, or from YouTube.
  11. 11. 22-10-2009 11 The biggest music retailer in the United States is Wal-Mart, and they sell 2 400 CD i h h 40 000some 2,400 CDs, with perhaps 40,000 tracks on them. iTunes has 2 M tracks – P2P has perhaps 9M - there are probably 25M tracks in total 40% of Rhapsody salestracks in total. 40% of Rhapsody sales are beyond the first 40,000. People are, in aggregate, listening to a lot more than top-40; even though top- 40 is all you can find on the radio or in Wal-Mart. Blockbuster Video gets some 90% of its rentals from the new theatrical releases. Netflix offers 40,000 DVDs; and its sales are 30% new releases and 70% others. They claim that recommendationsThey claim that recommendations, searching, and other techniques encourage people to expand their choices in movies.
  12. 12. 22-10-2009 12 YouTube is now seeing 100M downloads a day. Its viewership is comparable to a network. Counterargument: if each download is watched for a minute or so, that’s 2 M hours of watching; ordinary TV gets 500 times that much attention. Personally I find it hard to see the difference betweeny YouTube and “Amazing Home Videos”. But YouTube is growing, and network TV is dropping. Competition between Amazon and Barnes and Noble has greatly increased the number of books you can readily purchased; Amazon now has 5M books for sale and Abebooks has 45M. There are now over 80,000 publishers in the US and they publish more than 200,000 books per year. Both numbers are rising rapidly as the low-grade books can find an audience.
  13. 13. 22-10-2009 13
  14. 14. 22-10-2009 14
  15. 15. 22-10-2009 15 Plataforma digital: Costos de almacenaje e inventarios son marginales, resulta rentableg , vender elementos poco populares. No hay costos de “estanterías”. No es necesario un estante o vitrina para promocionar un producto. Además, los catálogos se pueden ver desde cualquier parte del mundoparte del mundo. Marketing: Existen muchas herramientas digitales para promocionar productos:g p p p Web blogs, podcasting y wikis: recomendaciones Etiquetados Sociales (tags): categorización Redes sociales: publicidad, “boca a boca” Sindicación de contenidos (RSS): todo en una página.
  16. 16. 22-10-2009 16 TAMAÑOS DE CATALOGO POR INDUSTRIA ONLINE OFFLINE MUSICA 8.000.000 40.000 LIBROS 2.300.000 130.000 PELICULAS 80 000 70 000PELICULAS 80.000 70.000 OJO: Todas compiten con todas!!! Google: Debido a que existen búsquedas personalizadas, hay publicidad enfocada parap , y p p cada tipo de búsqueda. Banca: Existe una gran variedad de productos y servicios (préstamos, créditos, seguros, fondos de inversión, planes de pensiones, etc.), con cientos de variaciones, es decir, una larga cola.
  17. 17. 22-10-2009 17 3 Reglas del Long Tail (LT)
  18. 18. 22-10-2009 18
  19. 19. 22-10-2009 19 Vender MENOS de MAS…
  20. 20. 22-10-2009 20 Chris Anderson, Wired
  21. 21. 22-10-2009 21 “Waste is Good” Alan Kay, Xerox PARC (1972)
  22. 22. 22-10-2009 22 “Over 2775.261837 megabytes (and counting) of free storage so you'll never need to delete another message” (Remember “Your mailbox is full”? What was that about?)
  23. 23. 22-10-2009 23
  24. 24. 22-10-2009 24 Scarcity Abundance Scarcity Abundance
  25. 25. 22-10-2009 25 Scarcity Abundance Scarcity Abundance
  26. 26. 22-10-2009 26 Scarcity Abundance NYT CNN WashPost AP BBC SF Chron Guardian Yomiuri Wired Boston Globe Times UK Forbes Time Fox News Biz Week PBS NPR MNSBCMTVCBS News CBS NewsCNN T l CBCS d CBS NewsCNN Money Telegrap h CBC.caSydney Morning Herald SJ Merc Chic TribReutersIHTWSJEconomis t FTESPN Post- Gazette PR Newswire
  27. 27. 22-10-2009 27 = =
  28. 28. 22-10-2009 28
  29. 29. 22-10-2009 29 Scarcity:Scarcity: “NO” Abundance:Abundance: “YES”
  30. 30. 22-10-2009 30 Scarcity Abundance ROI Memo We’ll figure it out y Scarcity Abundance “Everything is forbidden unless it is “Everything is permitted unless it is y permitted” forbidden”
  31. 31. 22-10-2009 31 Scarcity Abundance Paternalism (“we know what’s best”) Egalitarianism (“you know what’s best”) y at s best ) ) Scarcity Abundance Top-down Bottoms-up y
  32. 32. 22-10-2009 32 Scarcity Abundance Command and Control Out of Control y
  33. 33. 22-10-2009 33 Blog:Blog: thelongtail.com

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