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Dealing with Ambiguity โ€“
ow can I be sure?
โ€˜Of all the small nations of this
earth, perhaps only the ancient
Greeks surpass the Scots in
their contribution to mankind.โ€™
Sir Winston Churchill
If you torture data sufficiently, it
will confess to almost
anything.
F.Menger.
United Nations Peace Monitor
โ€ข DEATHS BY VIOLENCE PER 100,000:
โ€ข 1. SPAIN/GREECE 1.3
โ€ข 10. MALTA 2.5
โ€ข 11 ICELAND 2.6
โ€ข 13. CANADA 2.7
โ€ข 16 NORTHERN IRELAND 3.5
โ€ข 22 ENGLAND AND WALES 4.2
โ€ข 29 ROMANIA 5.1
โ€ข 37 ALBANIA 6.2
โ€ข 40 SCOTLAND 7.3
โ€ข 42 UNITED STATES 7.9
โ€ข 44 ISRAEL 8.3
โ€ข 77. COLOMBIA 77.1
Wicked Problem
โ€ข The challenges we face converge,
intertwine and often remain largely
beyond our understanding. Most of us
suspect that the โ€œexpertsโ€ donโ€™t really
know whatโ€™s going on and that as a
species weโ€™ve released forces that are
neither managed nor manageable.โ€
โ€“ Thomas Homer-Dixon (Paper by Prof Phil Hanlon
University of Glasgow 2009)
VRU Traineeโ€™s
VIOLENCE
IS A
CONTAGIOUS PROCESS
Violence makes you ill
HOW TO
STOP EPIDEMICS
1. Interrupt transmission
2. Change behavior
3. Change norms
Question:
How do you know when an idea is innovative?
If you give people a choice
between tough or soft policing
theyโ€™ll choose tough.
If itโ€™s the choice between
tough or smart policing โ€“
theyโ€™ll choose smart.
10 Year Plan
Primary Prevention
Key Prevention Strategies
1.Developing safe and stable
relationships&
2.Developing life and social
skills&
3.Challenging cultural and
social norms that support
violence
4.Reducing access to lethal
means
5.Reducing availability and
harmful use of alcohol
TEACHABLE MOMENTS
โ€ข EARLY YEARS / PARENTING
โ€“ (The most important job in the world)
FACT
Parenting and early years support is the
foundation of the violence reduction .
Reducing risk factors for violence
Youth
Violence
Intimate
Partner
Child
Abuse
Elder
Abuse
Sexual
Violence
Increased access to pre and
post natal care
Home visiting programmes
Parenting programmes
Social development
training for children
Child abuse victim
treatment programmes
Training health staff to
identify / refer victims
Alcohol / drug use
reduction strategies
Secondary Prevention
BYSTANDER
OPINION:
We need to jail those we are afraid of,
and not those we are mad at.
Rather have mandatory programmes than
mandatory sentencing.
NEWS
Radical change in the design and delivery of public services is
necessary to tackle the deep-rooted social problems that
persist in communities across the country
FLASH!
DISCIPLINE 1: COLLABORATE
DISCIPLINE 2: INNOVATE
Risk Mitigation in Innovation
โ€ข Empathy โ€“ deep connection and
understanding of the people you are trying
to serve.
โ€ข Prototyping โ€“ development of solution โ€“ so
โ€˜failureโ€™ becomes something that is
learning thatโ€™s built on quickly.
โ€ข Openness โ€“ transparency and openness
allow for quick understanding of problem.
PROBLEM
In most cases, STRATEGY
is separated by ACTIVITY by a wide gap.
Leadership on the line
โ€ข Leaders need to have the stomach for
conflict, ambiguity and uncertainty.
โ€ข Holding steady in an adaptive context is
critical.
โ€ข Set the โ€˜mood musicโ€™ - This is more than
running an organisation its about making
children and young peopleโ€™s lives safer.
โ€ข Political Will โ€“ attitudinal and ideological
readiness to bring down violence โ€“ may be far
more important than the choice of concrete
means to achieve the end.
โ€ข A successful plan will require the key actors โ€“
health, CJ, Police, prisons etc to commit to
this aim.
โ€ข Information and education โ€“ changing
societyโ€™s view about the nature and causes of
crime and the way ahead.
โ€ข Public opinion and the role of the media โ€“
engaging them to retain a sober and
reasonable attitude to violence reduction.
โ€ข Constructive Crime prevention alternatives โ€“ if
nothing else is offered, the law and prison will
be used as the primary shield against crime.
THE FOCUS TEST:
โ€ข Who are you?_________________
โ€ข What do you do?________________
โ€ข Why does it matter?_______________
Theory of Moral Sentiments
โ€ข โ€œHow selfish soever a man may be
supposed, there are evidently some
principles in his nature which interest him
in the fortunes of others and render their
happiness necessary to him, though he
derives nothing from it except the pleasure
of seeing it.โ€
Adam Smith
THANK Q
โ€œWork as if you live in the early days of a
better Nationโ€
Feral pig โ€˜drinks 18 cans of beer, fights cow
and then passes out drunk under treeโ€™

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Karyn McCluskey Dealing with Ambiguity - How can I be sure?

  • 1. Dealing with Ambiguity โ€“ ow can I be sure?
  • 2. โ€˜Of all the small nations of this earth, perhaps only the ancient Greeks surpass the Scots in their contribution to mankind.โ€™ Sir Winston Churchill
  • 3. If you torture data sufficiently, it will confess to almost anything. F.Menger.
  • 4. United Nations Peace Monitor โ€ข DEATHS BY VIOLENCE PER 100,000: โ€ข 1. SPAIN/GREECE 1.3 โ€ข 10. MALTA 2.5 โ€ข 11 ICELAND 2.6 โ€ข 13. CANADA 2.7 โ€ข 16 NORTHERN IRELAND 3.5 โ€ข 22 ENGLAND AND WALES 4.2 โ€ข 29 ROMANIA 5.1 โ€ข 37 ALBANIA 6.2 โ€ข 40 SCOTLAND 7.3 โ€ข 42 UNITED STATES 7.9 โ€ข 44 ISRAEL 8.3 โ€ข 77. COLOMBIA 77.1
  • 6. โ€ข The challenges we face converge, intertwine and often remain largely beyond our understanding. Most of us suspect that the โ€œexpertsโ€ donโ€™t really know whatโ€™s going on and that as a species weโ€™ve released forces that are neither managed nor manageable.โ€ โ€“ Thomas Homer-Dixon (Paper by Prof Phil Hanlon University of Glasgow 2009)
  • 10. HOW TO STOP EPIDEMICS 1. Interrupt transmission 2. Change behavior 3. Change norms
  • 11. Question: How do you know when an idea is innovative?
  • 12.
  • 13. If you give people a choice between tough or soft policing theyโ€™ll choose tough. If itโ€™s the choice between tough or smart policing โ€“ theyโ€™ll choose smart.
  • 15. Primary Prevention Key Prevention Strategies 1.Developing safe and stable relationships& 2.Developing life and social skills& 3.Challenging cultural and social norms that support violence 4.Reducing access to lethal means 5.Reducing availability and harmful use of alcohol
  • 17. โ€ข EARLY YEARS / PARENTING โ€“ (The most important job in the world)
  • 18.
  • 19. FACT Parenting and early years support is the foundation of the violence reduction .
  • 20. Reducing risk factors for violence Youth Violence Intimate Partner Child Abuse Elder Abuse Sexual Violence Increased access to pre and post natal care Home visiting programmes Parenting programmes Social development training for children Child abuse victim treatment programmes Training health staff to identify / refer victims Alcohol / drug use reduction strategies
  • 22. OPINION: We need to jail those we are afraid of, and not those we are mad at. Rather have mandatory programmes than mandatory sentencing.
  • 23. NEWS Radical change in the design and delivery of public services is necessary to tackle the deep-rooted social problems that persist in communities across the country FLASH!
  • 25.
  • 27.
  • 28. Risk Mitigation in Innovation โ€ข Empathy โ€“ deep connection and understanding of the people you are trying to serve. โ€ข Prototyping โ€“ development of solution โ€“ so โ€˜failureโ€™ becomes something that is learning thatโ€™s built on quickly. โ€ข Openness โ€“ transparency and openness allow for quick understanding of problem.
  • 29. PROBLEM In most cases, STRATEGY is separated by ACTIVITY by a wide gap.
  • 30. Leadership on the line โ€ข Leaders need to have the stomach for conflict, ambiguity and uncertainty. โ€ข Holding steady in an adaptive context is critical. โ€ข Set the โ€˜mood musicโ€™ - This is more than running an organisation its about making children and young peopleโ€™s lives safer.
  • 31. โ€ข Political Will โ€“ attitudinal and ideological readiness to bring down violence โ€“ may be far more important than the choice of concrete means to achieve the end. โ€ข A successful plan will require the key actors โ€“ health, CJ, Police, prisons etc to commit to this aim. โ€ข Information and education โ€“ changing societyโ€™s view about the nature and causes of crime and the way ahead. โ€ข Public opinion and the role of the media โ€“ engaging them to retain a sober and reasonable attitude to violence reduction. โ€ข Constructive Crime prevention alternatives โ€“ if nothing else is offered, the law and prison will be used as the primary shield against crime.
  • 32. THE FOCUS TEST: โ€ข Who are you?_________________ โ€ข What do you do?________________ โ€ข Why does it matter?_______________
  • 33. Theory of Moral Sentiments โ€ข โ€œHow selfish soever a man may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature which interest him in the fortunes of others and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it except the pleasure of seeing it.โ€ Adam Smith
  • 34. THANK Q โ€œWork as if you live in the early days of a better Nationโ€
  • 35. Feral pig โ€˜drinks 18 cans of beer, fights cow and then passes out drunk under treeโ€™

Editor's Notes

  1. Morning Delighted Full of experts If I am rubbish this morning, donโ€™t tell the other group โ€“ as I can completely change it by the afternoon. REALISED AS I SAW THE BREATH OF PROGRAMME HOW MANY EXPERTS ARE IN THIS ROOM โ€“ FROM KINSHIP CARE, DOMESTIC ABUSE, DENTAL HEALTH (ONE OF MY FAVOURITE GROUP OF PROFESSIONALS WHOโ€™VE DONE SO MUCH WORK FOR US IN INTERVENING IN ABUSE IN SCOTLAND, SOCIAL PEDAGOGY IN SCOTALDN โ€“ IRN BRU AND HAGGIS? DEALING WITH AMBIGUITYWE NEED TO TAKE A STEP BACK โ€“ LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE, IN THE MIDST OF THIS FAST PACED, TURBULENT AND TARGET DRIVEN LIFE. ย  WE DONโ€™T NEED TO CHOOSE BETWEEN REFLECTING AND ACTING โ€“ BUT WE NEED TO DO BOTH โ€“ AT THE SAME TIME โ€“ HAVE THE CLARITY OF KNOWING WHAT TO DO AND WHEN. ALSO THE COURAGE TO SAY โ€˜I DONโ€™T KNOWโ€™ ย  ON MOST DAYS, IF I AM TRUE TO MYSELF ,Iโ€™VE DECIDED THAT I SEEM TO BE ABLE TO SIT WITH DISCOMFORT, AND LIVE WITH โ€˜NOT KNOWINGโ€™. I KNOW THAT TO DEAL WITH THE AMBIGUITY THERE ARE TIMES THAT I NEED TO COLLABORATE, TIMES THAT I NEED TO STEP UP, IN OTHER TIMES I NEED TO STEP BACK AND REFLECT โ€“ ENGAGE THOSE MOST AFFECTED BY THE CIRCUMSTANCES IN DECISION MAKING. IN OTHER TIMES โ€“ YOU JUST NEED TO GO FORWARD RELENTLESSLY. ย  FOR ME. HOLDING THIS AMBIGUITY IS ABOUT WORKING FEROCIOUSLY FOR A BETTER OUTCOME, WITHOUT TAKING MYSELF TOO SERIOUSLY. I ACCEPT SCOTLAND AS IT IS โ€“ BUT Iโ€™D LIKE TO MAKE IT BETTER AND NOT WORSE. I AM NO IDEALIST โ€“ I CANNOT DO EVERYTHING โ€“ THAT WAY MADNESS LIES.
  2. ADAM SMITH _ empathy is the glue that keeps society together.. BUT WANT YOU TO THINK OF HUME IN THIS CONFERENCE - WHO SAID THAT TRUTH SPRINGS FROM ARGUMENT AMONG FRIENDS โ€“ AND WE ARE ALL FRIENDS HERE, UNITED IN OUR ATTEMPTS TO CHANGE THE LIVES OF THE MOST VULNERABLE, OUR MOST PRECIOUS COMMODITY โ€“ NOT OIL, BUT THE CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE. SO DEBATE, DISCUSS, DISAGREE AS YOU GO FORWARD โ€“ NO VIOLENCE HOWEVER.โ€“
  3. IT STRUCK ME ITโ€™S A LITTLE LIKE BOILING A FROG โ€“ WE HAVE BECOME SO USED TO THE REPORTS OF VIOLENCE AND MURDERS, WE HAVE BECOME DESENSITISED. YET WHEN WE HAVE A MURDER, THESE MAMMOTH SHRINES APPEAR TO THE VICTIM (SO MUCH SO WE EVEN HAVE A SHRINE SCENE MANAGEMENT POLICY TO DEAL WITH THEM), SO SOME PEOPLE FEEL OUTRAGED. I WONDERED IF WE COULD CAPITALISE ON THE OUTPOURING OF GRIEF AND PUT UP A PLACARD WHICH SAID โ€˜ HAVE YOU HAD ENOUGH, COME TO A COMMUNITY MEETING โ€“ DO SOMETHINGโ€™ WHEN I PUT THIS TO SOME OF MY CHURCH COLLEAGUES, THEY SUGGESTED I WAS A LITTLE CRASS.
  4. YET, OVER THE LAST DECADE IN TRYING TO PLAY A SMALL PART IN A MOVEMENT WHERE WE ARE A SAFER, LESS VIOLENT SOCIETY, I REALIZE IF WE ARE TO TRULY CHANGE THINGS AND TO CREATE A BETTER, FAIRER, SAFER PLACE FOR OUR YOUNG AND OLD TO GROW, THEN WE MUST ENVISION A NEW FUTURE. โ€“ and thatโ€™s not about increasingly tougher policing. ย  Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and a lot more complexโ€ฆ.it takes a touch of genius โ€“ and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction. NOT MY QUOTE. ย  So WE DIDNโ€™T USE THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE MODEL in Scotland โ€“ TOO NARROW, TOO PRECRIPTIVE NOT SOLUTION FOCUSSED โ€“ AND IT HAD TAKEN US ONLY SO FARโ€ฆdonโ€™t get me wrong we had great detections, prisons are full. Although Iโ€™m not sure full prisons is how I would measure long term success. WE HAD 18000 COPS โ€“ 5M PEOPLE โ€“ THE MATHS DOESNโ€™T WORK.
  5. ย  ย  ARISTOTLE โ€“ POVERTY PARENT OF CRIME. ย  ย  ย  BUILDING CRIMINAL JUSTICE CAPACITY FOR 10 15 YEARS HENCE โ€“ THATโ€™S AN ADMISSION THAT WE WILL FAIL THE PRIMARY 1โ€™S IN OUR CLASSROOMS TODAY. ย  ย  ย  WE CAN HAVE NO MISPLACEs EMPATHY โ€“ NO COMPASSION FATIGUE โ€“ NO TALK ABOUT โ€˜GOOD ENOUGHโ€™
  6. Diverting young people from going into CJ system has been wonderful in Scotland โ€“ SEEN A DRAMATIC CHANGE more needed but what a change. Social Capital โ€“ children primary schoolsโ€ฆ. BYSTANDER โ€“ ATTITUDES TOWARDS WOMEN โ€“ EDUCATION โ€“ BUILDING SOCIAL CAPITAL.
  7. In T.S. elliots, in Theย Hollow Men, writes โ€˜Between the idea. And the reality. Between the motion. And the act. Falls the shadow.โ€™ ย  It is in the shadows that things fail. Where we fail to achieve our goals because we are too fearful of the journey, too risk averse, unsure of our skills, and the most cataclysmic of all the โ€˜terror of errorโ€™ ย  When Obama was running for presidency in 2007 he talked about the โ€˜smallness of our politicsโ€™, what he said stayed with me in relation to our journey. ย  โ€œWhatโ€™s stopped us from meeting these challenges is not the absence of sound policies and sensible plans. Whatโ€™s stopped us is the failure of leadership, the smallness of our politics โ€” the ease with which weโ€™re distracted by the petty and trivial, our chronic avoidance of tough decisions, our preference for scoring cheap political points instead of rolling up our sleeves and building a working consensus to tackle big problems.โ€
  8. IN A LEADERSHIP ROLE โ€“ WE NEED TO HAVE THE STOMACH FOR CONFLICT, AMBIGUITY AND UNCERTAINTY โ€“ YET STILL HOLD STEADY. WE WILL NEED TO LIVE BY OUR DEEPEST VALUES, LISTEN TO EACH OTHER AND BE CURIOUS ABOUT WHAT THE FUTURE WILL BRING. THIS IS TRUE PARTICULARLY IN POLICING, WHEN WE SEEM TO BE INCREASINGLY TARGET DRIVEN. ย  SOMETIMES I RATHER LIKE SCARING THE LIVING DAYLIGHTS OUT OF EACH MYSELF AND OTHERS, I THINK THATโ€™S NO BAD THING.
  9. I know Scotland is better now, I know Scotland is safer now, but we are not there yet. Too many lives are still blighted by violence, there can be no complacency. We must keep trying, all of us โ€“ for we are presented with the opportunity to make some real change โ€“ to change the destiny of some of the most excluded in our country and to improve their outcomes and those of their children. This is within our grasp. Violence reduction has been about people, particularly the most alienated. We interviewed for a work program โ€“ we had a young woman come in โ€“ had been addicted to drugs โ€“ now clean, been many years in prostitution, never been for an interview, covered in self harm marks โ€“ we asked that old interview staple โ€˜why should we take you?โ€™ โ€ฆto which she replied โ€œOh, I wouldnโ€™t take meโ€ โ€“ so we did. Many of our offenders have children and we know that a high percentage of children of offenders also end up taking the same path. The one think we must do โ€“ is to make it better for the children โ€“ to see their parents fulfilled, happy, part of something, proud โ€“ workingโ€ฆmay start a change โ€“ and thatโ€™s worth doing. ย  John Cleese summed it up when he said โ€œIt's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand.โ€ Well, I think we could all do with a little hope.
  10. ALCOHOL โ€“ JUST LIKE THE SLIDE โ€“ OUR NEXT BIG STEP WILL BE TO WE NEED TO TAKE A STEP BACK โ€“ LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE, IN THE MIDST OF THIS FAST PACED, TURBULENT AND TARGET DRIVEN LIFE. ย  WE DONโ€™T NEED TO CHOOSE BETWEEN REFLECTING AND ACTING โ€“ BUT WE NEED TO DO BOTH โ€“ AT THE SAME TIME โ€“ HAVE THE CLARITY OF KNOWING WHAT TO DO AND WHEN. ALSO THE COURAGE TO SAY โ€˜I DONโ€™T KNOWโ€™ ย  ON MOST DAYS, IF I AM TRUE TO MYSELF ,Iโ€™VE DECIDED THAT I SEEM TO BE ABLE TO SIT WITH DISCOMFORT, AND LIVE WITH โ€˜NOT KNOWINGโ€™. I KNOW THAT TO DEAL WITH THE AMBIGUITY THERE ARE TIMES THAT I NEED TO COLLABORATE, TIMES THAT I NEED TO STEP UP, IN OTHER TIMES I NEED TO STEP BACK AND REFLECT โ€“ ENGAGE THOSE MOST AFFECTED BY THE CIRCUMSTANCES IN DECISION MAKING. IN OTHER TIMES โ€“ YOU JUST NEED TO GO FORWARD RELENTLESSLY. ย  FOR ME. HOLDING THIS AMBIGUITY IS ABOUT WORKING FEROCIOUSLY FOR A BETTER OUTCOME, WITHOUT TAKING MYSELF TOO SERIOUSLY. I ACCEPT SCOTLAND AS IT IS โ€“ BUT Iโ€™D LIKE TO MAKE IT BETTER AND NOT WORSE. I AM NO IDEALIST โ€“ I CANNOT DO EVERYTHING โ€“ THAT WAY MADNESS LIES. IN A LEADERSHIP ROLE โ€“ WE NEED TO HAVE THE STOMACH FOR CONFLICT, AMBIGUITY AND UNCERTAINTY โ€“ YET STILL HOLD STEADY. WE WILL NEED TO LIVE BY OUR DEEPEST VALUES, LISTEN TO EACH OTHER AND BE CURIOUS ABOUT WHAT THE FUTURE WILL BRING. THIS IS TRUE PARTICULARLY IN POLICING, WHEN WE SEEM TO BE INCREASINGLY TARGET DRIVEN. ย  SOMETIMES I RATHER LIKE SCARING THE LIVING DAYLIGHTS OUT OF EACH MYSELF AND OTHERS, I THINK THATโ€™S NO BAD THING. ย  ย  ย ย