2. IN A NUTSHELL
• Fasten your seatbelts! HUMAN POTENTIAL is in for a ride
• The next TWO DECADES will bring unprecedented economic opportunities
• Soon, EVERY COMPANY will be a ‘technology company’
• ENTREPRENEURS are leading the knowledge storm
4. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Human capital is the stock of knowledge, habits, social and personality attributes, including
creativity, embodied in the ability to perform labor so as to produce economic value.
Source: The AI Revolution: Road to Superintelligence-Wait But Why
5. THIS IS THE REAL “J” CURVE
We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. — Vernor Vinge
Source: The AI Revolution: Road to Superintelligence-Wait But Why
7. AI IS AROUND THE CORNER
Caliber 1) Artificial Narrow Intelligence
(ANI): specializes in one area: chess
Caliber 2) Artificial General Intelligence
(AGI): a computer that is as smart as a
human across the board—a machine
that can perform any intellectual task
that a human being can
Caliber 3) Artificial Super Intelligence
(ASI): an intellect that is much smarter
than the best human brains in
practically every field, including
scientific creativity, general wisdom
and social skills.
First, stop thinking of robots. A robot is a container for AI, sometimes mimicking the human
form, sometimes not—but the AI itself is the computer inside the robot (i.e. software).
Source: The AI Revolution: Road to Superintelligence-Wait But Why
8. RUNNING WITH THE MACHINE
In a smart process, people are an inherent and desired part of the process or activity. The end
goal is to make people more effective and productive
10. FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL ERASIN LAST 250 YEARS
Industrial
Revolution
1771
Steam and
Railways
1829
Steel and
Electricity
1875
Oil &
Automobile
1908
Information
Technology
1971
Britain Britain
Continent and US
US & Germany
Britain
US
Germany
US
Europe & Asia
Each generated an important all-pervasive low cost input: a source of energy, or a crucial
material, or transportation, or communication
Arkwright’s Mill
opens in
Cromford
Test of the
“Rocket” steam
engine for the
Liverpool-
Manchester
Railway
The Carnegie
Bessemer plan
opens in Pittsburg
First Model T
comes out of
Ford’s plan in
Detroit
The Intel
microprocessor is
announced in
Santa Clara
Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
12. FIVE CONSTELLATIONS OF INFRASTRUCTURES
Each results from the synergistic interdependence of a group of industries with one or more
infrastructural networks
Industrial
Revolution
1771
Steam and
Railways
1829
Steel and
Electricity
1875
Oil &
Automobile
1908
Information
Technology
1971
Canals and
waterways
Turnpike roads
Water power
Railways
Postal service
Telegraph
Ports
Electrical
networks
Telephone
Global shipping,
telegraph
Oil ducts
Multi-modal
transportation
networks
Global telecom
Internet
Servers
Mechanized
cotton
Wrought iron
Machinery
Steam engine
Mining
Rolling stock
Heavy chemistry
Electrical
equipment
Canned and
bottled food
Automobiles
Petrochemicals
Home appliances
Refrigerated
foods
Computers
Software
Controls
instruments
IndustriesInfrastructure
Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
13. FIVE ECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFTS'
Each unleashed a profound transformation in ‘the way of doing things’ across the whole
economy
Resulting in a best-practice model made up of a set of all-pervasive technological and
organizational principles, thus a new way of ‘management’
Industrial
Revolution
1771
Steam and
Railways
1829
Steel and
Electricity
1875
Oil &
Automobile
1908
Information
Technology
1971
Mechanization
Productivity/time
keeping
Fluidity of
movement
Economies of
agglomeration
Economies of
scale
Standard parts
Vertical
integration
Cartels
Cost accounting
Mass production
Standardization
of products
Functional
specialization
Segmentation
Economies of
scope
Globalization
Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
16. THE PROPAGATION OF PARADIGMS
Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
17. THE ORIGINS: WORLD WAR II
• Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD)
– 10,000 scientists
– US$5.5 billion to universities: MIT, Caltech, Harvard, Columbia, Stanford
– US$25 billion on Manhattan project alone
– Several other US$ billion projects
– Developments: radar, electronic warfare, rockets, sonar, proximityfuse, napalm,
bazooka, penicillin and curesfor malaria, the atomic bomb
Source: Steve Blank, Secret History of Silicon Valley
19. WE ARE HITTING MIDDLE AGE
The computer industry is in a stage akin to the auto sector in the late 50’s
Source: Asymco
20. THE PHASES OF EACH SURGE OF DEVELOPMENT
The best 20 years are just ahead of us!
Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
22. THE INSTALLATION PERIOD OF THE IT ERA
Infrastructure
Telecommunications
Platforms
Software & Services
Aggregators
Content & Applications
Commerce
Retail
Like in previous eras, a cluster of new products, industries and infrastructure lay the
groundwork for dissemination.
31. SOON, ALL COMPANIESWILL BE TECH
Life is alreadydigital and software is eating the world.
10X change on
how we produce
10X change on
what products are
10X change on
how we buyand consume
36. THIS IS WHY HUMAN POTENTIAL WILL TAKEOFF
Software is becoming an environment where workflow, education, and best practices are
brought forward to help humans perform better.
37. KEY DRIVERSOF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
Source: The History of Creating Value
Startup founders are accelerating the pace, by making useful things faster than corporations.
38. IN SUMMARY
• HUMAN POTENTIAL is being leveraged by software
• We have TWO DECADES of strong potential ahead of us
• EVERY COMPANY should be working on its ‘technology’ path
• FOUNDERS and it’s management ideas are the greatest productsof our era