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The Future of Human Potential

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Future of Human Potential. How every company will become a tech company and founders are the fabric of the new economy

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The Future of Human Potential

  1. 1. THE FUTURE OF HUMAN POTENTIAL
  2. 2. IN A NUTSHELL • Fasten your seatbelts! HUMAN POTENTIAL is in for a ride • The next TWO DECADES will bring unprecedented economic opportunities • Soon, EVERY COMPANY will be a ‘technology company’ • ENTREPRENEURS are leading the knowledge storm
  3. 3. HUMAN POTENTIAL IS IN FOR A RIDE
  4. 4. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? Human capital is the stock of knowledge, habits, social and personality attributes, including creativity, embodied in the ability to perform labor so as to produce economic value. Source: The AI Revolution: Road to Superintelligence-Wait But Why
  5. 5. THIS IS THE REAL “J” CURVE We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. — Vernor Vinge Source: The AI Revolution: Road to Superintelligence-Wait But Why
  6. 6. LAW OF ACCELERATINGRETURNS Source: The Law of Accelerating Returns It states that "fundamental measures of information technology follow predictable and exponential trajectories."
  7. 7. AI IS AROUND THE CORNER Caliber 1) Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI): specializes in one area: chess Caliber 2) Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): a computer that is as smart as a human across the board—a machine that can perform any intellectual task that a human being can Caliber 3) Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI): an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills. First, stop thinking of robots. A robot is a container for AI, sometimes mimicking the human form, sometimes not—but the AI itself is the computer inside the robot (i.e. software). Source: The AI Revolution: Road to Superintelligence-Wait But Why
  8. 8. RUNNING WITH THE MACHINE In a smart process, people are an inherent and desired part of the process or activity. The end goal is to make people more effective and productive
  9. 9. A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
  10. 10. FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL ERASIN LAST 250 YEARS Industrial Revolution 1771 Steam and Railways 1829 Steel and Electricity 1875 Oil & Automobile 1908 Information Technology 1971 Britain Britain Continent and US US & Germany Britain US Germany US Europe & Asia Each generated an important all-pervasive low cost input: a source of energy, or a crucial material, or transportation, or communication Arkwright’s Mill opens in Cromford Test of the “Rocket” steam engine for the Liverpool- Manchester Railway The Carnegie Bessemer plan opens in Pittsburg First Model T comes out of Ford’s plan in Detroit The Intel microprocessor is announced in Santa Clara Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
  11. 11. PATTER OF DIFFUSION Cluster of new products, industries and infrastructure New generic technologies and management principles Higher level of potential productivity for the whole system Increased consumer surplus and human development Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
  12. 12. FIVE CONSTELLATIONS OF INFRASTRUCTURES Each results from the synergistic interdependence of a group of industries with one or more infrastructural networks Industrial Revolution 1771 Steam and Railways 1829 Steel and Electricity 1875 Oil & Automobile 1908 Information Technology 1971 Canals and waterways Turnpike roads Water power Railways Postal service Telegraph Ports Electrical networks Telephone Global shipping, telegraph Oil ducts Multi-modal transportation networks Global telecom Internet Servers Mechanized cotton Wrought iron Machinery Steam engine Mining Rolling stock Heavy chemistry Electrical equipment Canned and bottled food Automobiles Petrochemicals Home appliances Refrigerated foods Computers Software Controls instruments IndustriesInfrastructure Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
  13. 13. FIVE ECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFTS' Each unleashed a profound transformation in ‘the way of doing things’ across the whole economy Resulting in a best-practice model made up of a set of all-pervasive technological and organizational principles, thus a new way of ‘management’ Industrial Revolution 1771 Steam and Railways 1829 Steel and Electricity 1875 Oil & Automobile 1908 Information Technology 1971 Mechanization Productivity/time keeping Fluidity of movement Economies of agglomeration Economies of scale Standard parts Vertical integration Cartels Cost accounting Mass production Standardization of products Functional specialization Segmentation Economies of scope Globalization Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
  14. 14. FINANCIAL INNOVATION Capital also flows in waves: 1. Risk capital, 2. Growth, 3. Risk spreading, 4. Refinancing Industrial Revolution 1771 Steam and Railways 1829 Steel and Electricity 1875 Oil & Automobile 1908 Information Technology 1971 1. Nabobs 2. State financing 3. Local banks 4. State financing 1. Families 2. Local banks financing 3. Joint-stock companies 4. State foreign direct investments 1. Fellow capitalist 2. Investment banks 3. Regional banks financing 4. National banks financing 1. Banks 2. Stock market 3. Bond market 4. Private foreign direct investments 1. Venture Capital 2. Private Equity 3. Crowd funding 4. ? Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
  15. 15. TWO DECADES OF UNPRECEDENTED OPPORTUNITIES
  16. 16. THE PROPAGATION OF PARADIGMS Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
  17. 17. THE ORIGINS: WORLD WAR II • Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD) – 10,000 scientists – US$5.5 billion to universities: MIT, Caltech, Harvard, Columbia, Stanford – US$25 billion on Manhattan project alone – Several other US$ billion projects – Developments: radar, electronic warfare, rockets, sonar, proximityfuse, napalm, bazooka, penicillin and curesfor malaria, the atomic bomb Source: Steve Blank, Secret History of Silicon Valley
  18. 18. Mainframe Computing 1960 Mini Computing 1970 Personal Computing 1980 Desktop Computing 1990 Mobile Computing 2000 1MM+ units 10MM+ units 100MM+ units 1B+ units 10B? units Source: Morgan Stanley, IBM, Nokia THE IT ERA IS ABOUT HALF WAY THERE Cycles with the Era last about 10 years. New companies often win big in new cycles. New cycle often create more market capitalization than prior cycles. IBM NCR Control Data Honeywell Digital Equipment Data General HP Prime Microsoft Cisco Intel Apple Oracle Dell Google AOL eBay Tencent Rakuten Apple Google Samsung
  19. 19. WE ARE HITTING MIDDLE AGE The computer industry is in a stage akin to the auto sector in the late 50’s Source: Asymco
  20. 20. THE PHASES OF EACH SURGE OF DEVELOPMENT The best 20 years are just ahead of us! Source: Carlota Pérez – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
  21. 21. EVERY COMPANY WILL BE A ‘TECHNOLOGY COMPANY’
  22. 22. THE INSTALLATION PERIOD OF THE IT ERA Infrastructure Telecommunications Platforms Software & Services Aggregators Content & Applications Commerce Retail Like in previous eras, a cluster of new products, industries and infrastructure lay the groundwork for dissemination.
  23. 23. THE DEPLOYMENT PERIODOF THE IT ERA Source: Kleiner Perkins Internet Trends
  24. 24. DIGITAL DISRUPTION BY INDUSTRY Source: Cisco – Where Disruption and Innovation Rules
  25. 25. RE-IMAGINING OUR LIFE Source: CBInsights
  26. 26. RE-IMAGINING OUR HOME Source: CBInsights
  27. 27. RE-IMAGINING CPG Source: CBInsights
  28. 28. RE-IMAGINING BANKING Source: CBInsights
  29. 29. RE-IMAGINING TRANSPORTATION Source: CBInsights
  30. 30. RE-IMAGINING HOTELS Source: CBInsights
  31. 31. SOON, ALL COMPANIESWILL BE TECH Life is alreadydigital and software is eating the world. 10X change on how we produce 10X change on what products are 10X change on how we buyand consume
  32. 32. ENTREPRENEURS ARE LEADING THE KNOWLEDGE STORM
  33. 33. THE IT ERA ORGANIZATIONAL LEGACY • Customer Development • Growth Hacking • Halocracy • Crowdsourcing • Technology Product Management • Agile Development • Design Thinking
  34. 34. LEVERAGING EXISTING KNOWLEDGE
  35. 35. CONNECTING KNOWLEDGE
  36. 36. THIS IS WHY HUMAN POTENTIAL WILL TAKEOFF Software is becoming an environment where workflow, education, and best practices are brought forward to help humans perform better.
  37. 37. KEY DRIVERSOF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Source: The History of Creating Value Startup founders are accelerating the pace, by making useful things faster than corporations.
  38. 38. IN SUMMARY • HUMAN POTENTIAL is being leveraged by software • We have TWO DECADES of strong potential ahead of us • EVERY COMPANY should be working on its ‘technology’ path • FOUNDERS and it’s management ideas are the greatest productsof our era
  39. 39. www.astellainvest.com

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