This document discusses a method for identifying potential new locations for expanding successful development projects based on key factors. It outlines how the weights of evidence method works by identifying important factors for a project, determining their positive or negative influence, and calculating a probability value for potential new sites. The document applies this method to the Quesungual seed project in Nicaragua to identify other suitable areas. It concludes with recommendations to incorporate this extrapolation domain analysis approach into future projects to guide scaling out efforts.

1. Adapting to Change: How to Accelerate Impact J. Rubiano1 S. Cook2, B. Douthwaite3, M.Rajasekaran2, V.Soto3 1 King’sCollege, University of London, jerubiano@gmail.com 2 Basin Focal Project, CPWF 3 International Center for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT, Colombia. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

2. This analysis shows where local projects have regional or global potential to change the lives of millions. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

3. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Extrapolation domains for the PN15 Quesungual Project

4. EDA 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

6. To link research with development (partnerships)

7. Add value to individual PNs’ and the CPWF

8. Guide Investors (SDC, WB…etc…)2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

9. Outline Overall concept How the method works? A graphical example An example from a CPWF project Where to next? Assessment Recomendations 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

10. What’s a right bed for my seeds? 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

11. Pilot sites of 11 CPWF projects (nursery) 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

12. The extrapolation problem Where else can we go with these projects? 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

13. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 A knowledge common sense game 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

14. It is black 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

15. It is hairy 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

16. Has more than 2 legs 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

17. It is not a pet 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

18. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

19. Back to the CPWF How to realise about the potential of the CPWF projects? How to wisely use information? End of phase 1, 40+ CPWF funded projects Knowledge Improving our ability to adapt 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

21. Black (one in four) - Uncertain

22. Hairy (three in four) - Maybe

23. Has more than three legs (two in four) - Perhaps

24. It’s not a pet (one in one) - Certain

25. The inference is a …2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

26. The extrapolation problem: Where else can we go with these projects? Knowledge Tell us factors are important Data About the original and target location About the distribution of important factors A method To link these two components 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

28. Stony soils

29. Mid altitude ranges

30. Low to medium precipitation

31. Technical institutional support

32. Prevalence of poverty

33. Etc…

34. From spatial analysis we also know how important these factors are for the project2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

35. How to weight the contribution of each factor? 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

36. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Pantropical world Important factors Research sites

37. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 1. Weights of Evidence Area=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115 Factor Area = 22 Pilot sites in Factor Area = 8

38. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 2. Weights of Evidence Area=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115 Factor Area = 22 Pilot sites in Factor Area = 8 Conditional Probabilities A. Factor and sites B. Factor but no sites C. No Factor but sites D. No Factor no sites W- = ln C/D W+ = ln A/B

39. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 4. Weights of Evidence Conditional Probabilities A. Pattern and sites B. Pattern but no sites C. No pattern but sites D. No pattern no sites W- = ln C/D W+ = ln A/B Odds Post = ln (Odds Prior + ∑(W+ +W-) Post Prob = Odds Post /(1+ Odds Post ) Area=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115 Evidential Pattern Area = 22 Pilot sites in Pattern = 8 Test of Conditional Independence of the evidential layers Posterior Probability=0.14 P(SjF1F2) =[P(F2jS) P(F1jS) P(S) ] / [P(F2) P(F1)]

40. How would I know a particular place is a good site for a project? Summarizing up to here…. We use the contribution of each factor (positive and negative weights) Associate this information with the basic knowledge of the site (prior probability of pilot sites) Calculate a value per each potential new site (posterior probability) 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

41. How to read results? Check for total conditional independence and uncertainty Organised results in maps for dialogue with project team members Iterate after adjustments Review results to the light of complementary information 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

42. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

43. Quesungual seed sites 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

45. Climate (length of dry season) (Jones et al., 2005)

46. Slope (From SRTM data, Jarvis et al., 2006)

47. Water availability (Proximity to water sources, from Lehner et al., 2004)

48. Access to markets (Nelson, 2006)

50. Agriculture and Livestock productivity

51. Agricultural subsistence systems

52. Land Tenure

53. Soils Type (Shallow soils)Community and Institutional Participation/support

54. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Location of prospecting sites for the PN15 Quesungual Project

55. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

56. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Area Population

57. Thanks 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

58. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Summary of Feedback

59. Assessment Mixed response about the approach (you love it or hate it) Data availability is a key constraint but solvable Local knowledge will improve its validity EDA, in general, is a useful starting point for the promotion of innovative techniques to new locations A recognition that suitable sites are not the unique guarantee for successful scaling out of interventions Does not work for all type of projects 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

61. More dialog at the beginning of projects to ensure the validation of variables to be used

62. Capture local knowledge

63. Use it as anaidforpartnershipsearch

64. Dynamic elements should be introduced

65. To allow the generation of different EDAs under different scenarios

66. A Country level EDA

67. Use of higher resolution data

68. To target more specific locations for intervention2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

69. Thanks 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

70. There must be other ways of doing this, if better, use them, but please let me know I am always open to learn 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

71. Key References Bonham-Carter, GF, Agterberg, FP., Wright, DF. Weights of evidence modeling: a new approach to mapping mineral potential. In: Agternerg, FP, Bonham-Carter, GF, editors. Statistical Applications in the Earth Sciences. Canada: Geological Survey of Canada; 1989, 171-183. Bonham-Carter, GF. Geographic Information Systems for geoscientists: modelling with GIS, First ed. Ottawa, Canada: Pergamon; 1994 Bonham-Carter, GF. Geographic information systems for geoscientist: Modelling with GIS. In: Merriam DF, editors. Computer Methods in the Geosciences. New York: Pergamon/Elsevier; 2002, 302-334. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

73. Paris?, The Caribbean?, London?, Home?

74. From previous experience you reckon that you enjoy being at…

75. Historical places ?

76. A sandy beach ?

77. Warm temperature ?

78. Being with relatives ?2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008