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Adapting to Change: How to Accelerate Impact
 

Adapting to Change: How to Accelerate Impact

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    Adapting to Change: How to Accelerate Impact Adapting to Change: How to Accelerate Impact Presentation Transcript

    • Adapting to Change: How to Accelerate Impact
      J. Rubiano1 S. Cook2, B. Douthwaite3, M.Rajasekaran2, V.Soto3
      1 King’sCollege, University of London, jerubiano@gmail.com
      2 Basin Focal Project, CPWF
      3 International Center for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT, Colombia.
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • This analysis shows where local projects have regional or global potential to change the lives of millions.
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
      Extrapolation domains for the PN15 Quesungual Project
    • EDA
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • What is this work useful for?
      Assuming successful project interventions (technological/ institutional)
      • To identify the potential for wide scale adoption (scaling out) and its impact while linked with Global (B&SEM)
      • To link research with development (partnerships)
      • Add value to individual PNs’ and the CPWF
      • Guide Investors (SDC, WB…etc…)
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • Outline
      Overall concept
      How the method works?
      A graphical example
      An example from a CPWF project
      Where to next?
      Assessment
      Recomendations
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • What’s a right bed for my seeds?
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • Pilot sites of 11 CPWF projects (nursery)
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • The extrapolation problem
      Where else can we go with these projects?
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
      A knowledge common sense game
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • It is black
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • It is hairy
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • Has more than 2 legs
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • It is not a pet
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • Back to the CPWF
      How to realise about the potential of the CPWF projects?
      How to wisely use information?
      End of phase 1, 40+ CPWF funded projects
      Knowledge
      Improving our ability to adapt
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • Use evidence and knowledge to estimate the likelihood of an event
      • Given an evidence…
      • Black (one in four) - Uncertain
      • Hairy (three in four) - Maybe
      • Has more than three legs (two in four) - Perhaps
      • It’s not a pet (one in one) - Certain
      • The inference is a …
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • The extrapolation problem: Where else can we go with these projects?
      Knowledge
      Tell us factors are important
      Data
      About the original and target location
      About the distribution of important factors
      A method
      To link these two components
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • How would I know a particular place is a good site for a project?
      • From the project sites we know that particular factors are important for the project (e.g):
      • Stony soils
      • Mid altitude ranges
      • Low to medium precipitation
      • Technical institutional support
      • Prevalence of poverty
      • Etc…
      • From spatial analysis we also know how important these factors are for the project
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • How to weight the contribution of each factor?
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
      Pantropical world
      Important factors
      Research sites
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
      1. Weights of Evidence
      Area=173
      Pilot sites=20
      Prior Prob=0.115
      Factor Area = 22 Pilot sites in Factor Area = 8
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
      2. Weights of Evidence
      Area=173
      Pilot sites=20
      Prior Prob=0.115
      Factor Area = 22 Pilot sites in Factor Area = 8
      Conditional Probabilities
      A. Factor and sites
      B. Factor but no sites
      C. No Factor but sites
      D. No Factor no sites
      W- = ln C/D
      W+ = ln A/B
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
      4. Weights of Evidence
      Conditional Probabilities
      A. Pattern and sites
      B. Pattern but no sites
      C. No pattern but sites
      D. No pattern no sites
      W- = ln C/D
      W+ = ln A/B
      Odds Post = ln (Odds Prior + ∑(W+ +W-)
      Post Prob = Odds Post /(1+ Odds Post )
      Area=173
      Pilot sites=20
      Prior Prob=0.115
      Evidential Pattern Area = 22 Pilot sites in Pattern = 8
      Test of Conditional Independence of the evidential layers
      Posterior Probability=0.14
      P(SjF1F2) =[P(F2jS) P(F1jS) P(S) ] / [P(F2) P(F1)]
    • How would I know a particular place is a good site for a project?
      Summarizing up to here….
      We use the contribution of each factor (positive and negative weights)
      Associate this information with the basic knowledge of the site (prior probability of pilot sites)
      Calculate a value per each potential new site (posterior probability)
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • How to read results?
      Check for total conditional independence and uncertainty
      Organised results in maps for dialogue with project team members
      Iterate after adjustments
      Review results to the light of complementary information
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • Quesungual seed sites
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
      “Important” factors
      AVAILABLE
      • Poverty (2 USD/day) (Thornton et al., 2002)
      • Climate (length of dry season) (Jones et al., 2005)
      • Slope (From SRTM data, Jarvis et al., 2006)
      • Water availability (Proximity to water sources, from Lehner et al., 2004)
      • Access to markets (Nelson, 2006)
      • Land Cover (Tree cover from GLCF, 2008))
      NOT AVAILABLE OR NON INDEPENDENT
      • Erosion
      • Agriculture and Livestock productivity
      • Agricultural subsistence systems
      • Land Tenure
      • Soils Type (Shallow soils)
      Community and Institutional Participation/support
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
      Location of prospecting sites for the PN15 Quesungual Project
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
      Area
      Population
    • Thanks
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
      Summary of Feedback
    • Assessment
      Mixed response about the approach (you love it or hate it)
      Data availability is a key constraint but solvable
      Local knowledge will improve its validity
      EDA, in general, is a useful starting point for the promotion of innovative techniques to new locations
      A recognition that suitable sites are not the unique guarantee for successful scaling out of interventions
      Does not work for all type of projects
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • Recommendations
      • Incorporateit in futureprojects’ development
      • More dialog at the beginning of projects to ensure the validation of variables to be used
      • Capture local knowledge
      • Use it as anaidforpartnershipsearch
      • Dynamic elements should be introduced
      • To allow the generation of different EDAs under different scenarios
      • A Country level EDA
      • Use of higher resolution data
      • To target more specific locations for intervention
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • Thanks
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • There must be other ways of doing this, if better, use them, but please let me know I am always open to learn
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • Key References
      Bonham-Carter, GF, Agterberg, FP., Wright, DF. Weights of evidence modeling: a new approach to mapping mineral potential. In: Agternerg, FP, Bonham-Carter, GF, editors. Statistical Applications in the Earth Sciences. Canada: Geological Survey of Canada; 1989, 171-183.
      Bonham-Carter, GF. Geographic Information Systems for geoscientists: modelling with GIS, First ed. Ottawa, Canada: Pergamon; 1994
      Bonham-Carter, GF. Geographic information systems for geoscientist: Modelling with GIS. In: Merriam DF, editors. Computer Methods in the Geosciences. New York: Pergamon/Elsevier; 2002, 302-334.
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
    • The Holidays dilemma
      • Who knows where are you going on Christmas?
      • Paris?, The Caribbean?, London?, Home?
      • From previous experience you reckon that you enjoy being at…
      • Historical places ?
      • A sandy beach ?
      • Warm temperature ?
      • Being with relatives ?
      2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008