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Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Epic research special report of 25 july 2016
1. DAILY REPORT
25
th
JULY 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Global markets at a glance
Wall Street rose on Friday, clinching the fourth straight
positive week for the stock market, boosted by strength in
telecom stalwarts AT&T and Verizon. A US manufacturing
report also came in above expectations, building on upbeat
data from earlier in the month. Gains were limited by
weakness in reports from industrial companies including
General Electric. The S&P and Dow have broken to all-time
records in the past two weeks for the first time in more
than a year amid a better-than-feared corporate earnings
season. The S&P closed at another record high on Friday.
“Below it all is just an ongoing trend of better economic
reports," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at
Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. "Some of those
are earnings reports, but they all line up to the same thing:
It looks like growth is quickening.” The Dow Jones industrial
average rose 53.62 points, or 0.29 percent, to 18,570.85,
the S&P 500 gained 9.86 points, or 0.46 percent, to
2,175.03 and the Nasdaq Composite added 26.26 points, or
0.52 percent, to 5,100.16. The S&P 500 is up more than 6
percent in 2016, shaking off a rough start to the year and
global instability, including Britain's recent vote to leave
the European Union. "We’re well past the Brexit fallout and
the subsequent rebound," said Peter Kenny, senior market
strategist at Global Markets Advisory Group in Berkeley
Heights, New Jersey. "We’re seeing oil is fairly well-
contained and range-bound. So those two variables are off
the table, and they have played a big part in triggering
volatility."
Previous day Roundup
Key benchmark indices eked out small gains after media
reports suggested that the Goods and Services Tax (GST)
constitutional amendment bill has been listed for
discussion in the Rajya Sabha next week. The barometer
index, the S&P BSE Sensex, rose 99.05 points or 0.36% at
27,809.57, as per the provisional closing data. The Nifty 50
index rose 31.10 points or 0.37% to 8,541.20, as per the
provisional closing data.The Sensex rose 121.93 points. The
Nifty rose 38.85 points.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial
indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [up 37.62
pts], Capital Goods [up 154.82 pts], PSU [up 19.24 pts],
FMCG [up 10.82 Pts], Realty [up 12.86 pts], Power [up
28.29 pts], Auto [up 160.57 pts], Healthcare [up 50.06 pts],
IT [down 27.43 pts], Metals [up 125.00 Pts], TECK [up 4.45
pts], Oil& Gas [up 64.83pts].
World Indices
Index Value % Change
DJI 18475.00 -0.14
S&P500 2162.5 -0.07
NASDAQ 5100.16 +.51
FTSE100 6730.48 +0.11
NIKKEI 16690.60 +0.38
HANG SENG 21952.61 -0.05
Top Gainers
Company CMP Change % Chg
TATAMTRDVR 330.70 11.70 3.67
TATAMOTORS 506.65 15.60 3.18
POWERGRID 167.55 5.05 3.11
ZEEL 464.40 11.50 2.54
INFRATEL 360.90 8.30 2.35
Top Losers
Company CMP Change % Chg
ACC 1675.15 -33.05 -1.93
BAJAJ-AUTO 2720.00 -50.60 -1.83
SBIN 223.45 -2.20 -0.97
BOSCHLTD 537.10 -228.65 -0.90
WIPRO 150.90 -4.90 -0.89
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
AGRITEC 18.80 0.85 4.74
ALKEM 1590.00 37.00 2.38
APCOTEXIND 406.00 35.25 9.51
ASIANPAINTS 1047.00 4.30 0.41
ATUL 2080.00 -90.50 -4.17
BAGFILMS 6.75 0.35 5.47
BAJAJHLDNG 1775.10 69.55 4.08
Indian Indices
Company CMP Change % Chg
NIFTY 8541.20 +31.10 +0.37
SENSEX 27803.24 +92.75 +0.33
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
BIRLACOT .05 -0.05 -50.00
DBSTOCKBRO 17.30 -0.35 -1.98
KHANDSE 15.50 0.20 1.31
2. DAILY REPORT
25
th
JULY 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
FEDERAL BANK [CASH]
On the daily chart of FEDERAL BANK it is trading in bullish
rally and after small correction in previous session it has
shown good upside move friday trading session rose with
heavy volumes.So we advise you to buy FEDERALBANK
above 64.30 for the targets of 65.30 66.50 with stop loss
below 63.
MACRO NEWS
With $1.6 billion Saudi order, L&T on track to meet fiscal
target.
Cairn-Vedanta merger could be done by year end
Forex reserves up $1.40 bn to $363.35 bn
SBI associates' staff will not be affected by merger
I-T dept detects Rs 22K cr undisclosed income in 2 yrs
Action to be taken against telcos for hiding call drops
Air India set to start domestic 'same day return flights'
for Rs. 5000
ITC plans multiple projects with Rs 25,000 crore outlay
Axis Bank Q1 profit dips 21% at Rs 1,556 crore
Federal Bank Q1 net grows 18% to Rs 167 crore
Ashok Leyland's Kenya & Bangladesh assembly facilities
will be ready in 8-12 months.
Biocon to launch insulin glargine in Malaysia in H2 FY
2016-17
Vodafone to continue preparation for India IPO
Equitas' Q1 net rises 64% to Rs 61 cr
Vijaya Bank Q1 profit up 13.4% to Rs 162 crore
IL&FS bags Rs 533 crore Nagpur Metro Rail contract
Bharat Financial shares surge 10% on 4-fold jump in
profits
Khaitan Electricals approaches BIFR to declare as sick
unit .
Vodafone's 7.5 crore IT demand plea junked by High
Court
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. TATAMOTORS [FUTURE]
Last trading session TATAMOTORS future give out-
performed in auto sector and close with bullish candlestick
in daily chart.And stock cross and close above major
resistance level and since last session it rose with rising OI in
long side . We may see sharp rise for that it will be good to
buy above 509 for the target of 514-520 with SL of 501.
2. HAVELLS [FUTURE]
Last trading session HAVELLS future give out-performed and
close with bullish candlestick in daily chart.And stock close
above major resistance level and since last session it rose
with rising OI in long side . We may see sharp rise for that it
will be good to buy above 381 for the target of 385-390
with SL of 375.
3. DAILY REPORT
25
th
JULY 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
FUTURES & OPTIONS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol Optio
n
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY CE 8,600 32.50 3,62,808 61,76,475
NIFTY CE 8,500 87.55 2,30,083 37,89,000
BANKNIFTY CE 19,000 59.00 95,265 7,36,360
ASHOKLEY CE 100 0.80 6,153 1,62,96,000
BIOCON CE 800 27.00 4,622 3,35,500
ITC CE 260 0.75 4,307 38,88,000
TATASTEEL CE 360 5.70 4,238 13,72,00
VEDL CE 170 3.95 3,851 33,60,000
MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol Optio
n
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY PE 8,500 36.35 3,78,319 49,71,825
NIFTY PE 8,400 14.50 2,54,448 58,75,350
BANKNIFTY PE 18,500 63.0 97,147 5,25,960
AXISBANK PE 540 13.80 3,099 11,29,200
AXISBANK PE 520 6.25 2,942 12,74,400
AXISBANK PE 530 9.20 2,848 7.38,000
SBIN PE 220 1.95 2,747 59,91,000
ITC PE 250 3.25 2,419 11,44,800
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAYSELL
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES 33888 2260.02 25467 1701.36 347715 22693.32 558.6567
INDEX OPTIONS 429684 28933.25 447189 30046.96 1064758 69005.10 -1113.7119
STOCK FUTURES 104397 6902.33 113174 7385.88 847230 54248.84 -483.5481
STOCK OPTIONS 86570 5883.54 87499 5932.76 115117 7507.04 -49.2244
TOTAL 1087.82
STOCKS IN NEWS
Axis Bank Q1 profit dips 21% at Rs 1,556 crore
Federal Bank Q1 net grows 18% to Rs 167 crore
IOC in talks to buy GSPC’s 50% stake in Mundra LNG
terminal
HUL plans to launch baby care products under dove
brand.
Upper Ganges & Oudh Sugar secured creditors
approves scheme of arrangement.
NIFTY FUTURE
NIFTY in last trading session open flattish note and made
a low of 8500 it’s major support level and after mid-
session good recovery at lower level with slow up
movement and closed with a bullish candlestick in daily
chart. And increase OI in nifty future, and last trading
session nifty spot again respect at 8500. So We advise
you to buy nifty around 8550-8555 for the targets of
8600-8650 with strict stop loss of 8485.
INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
NIFTY 8585.70 8563.40 8526.60 8504.30 8467.50
BANKNIFTY 18842.00 18766.00 18658.00 18582.00 18474.00
4. DAILY REPORT
25
th
JULY 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
Gold dragged lower yet again. Technical selling and a
general sense of profit selling is capping Gold after the
metal hit nearly 28 month highs. Equities are holding up
somehow amid decent earnings reports and US stocks look
set to extend their record breaking spree as the DOW
futures indicate a firm opening. COMEX Gold dropped
today , failing to hold above $1330 per ounce levels and
currently trades down 0.60% at $1323.20 per ounce. MCX
Gold futures are trading at Rs 30838 per 10 grams, down
0.54% on the day.
Silver futures fell during noon trade in the domestic market
on Friday as investors and speculators exited positions in
the precious metal tracking weakness overseas as a
stronger dollar curbed the lure for the bullion as an
alternative asset. Stronger greenback makes silver more
expensive for those holding other currencies thus dimming
demand for gold. Further diminishing hopes of a big
stimulus boost from central banks dimmed the appeal of
silver a hedge against the inflationary risk of monetary
stimulus.
Copper futures fell during evening trade in the domestic
market on Friday as investors and speculators exited
positions in the industrial metal amid weak physical demand
for copper in the domestic spot market. Further a plunge in
Euro area consumer confidence and the slowest growth in
the region’s private sector output in 18 months in July;
signaled that the recovery in the 19-member economy is
definitely taking a beating in the wake of Brexit dimming
demand prospects.
According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS)
has recently announced that in January-May this year,
global nickel market supply shortages were more than
426000 tons; global nickel market supply shortages were
45,000 tons in 2015. In May global refined nickel output was
155,900 tons, demand of 169,800 tons. In January-May this
year, global refined nickel output was 728,000 tons,
demand of 770,000 tons.
Lead futures fell during evening trade in the domestic
market on Friday as investors and speculators exited
positions in the industrial metal amid weak physical demand
for Lead from battery-makers in the domestic spot market.
RECOMMENDATIONS
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD ABOVE 30930 TGT 31130 31340 SL 30800
SELL GOLD BELOW 30665 TGT 30560 30360 SL 30780
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER ABOVE 46680 TGT 46880 47280 SL 46480
SELL SILVER BELOW 46074 TGT 45874 45274 SL 46274
MCX
5. DAILY REPORT
25
th
JULY 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
NCDEX
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value % Change
BARLEY 1624 +0.22
CHANA 7670 +0.3
CORIANDER 2701 +1.27
COTTON SEED 3942 +1.57
GUAR SEED 19930 +3.80
JEERA 1585 +2.52
MUSTARDSEED 4973 +0.40
REF SOYA OIL 640.40 -0.84
SUGAR M GRADE 3841 +0.21
TURMERIC 8292 +0.05
RECOMMENDATIONS
DHANIYA
BUY CORIANDER AUG ABOVE 7750 TARGET 7795 7895 SL
BELOW 7685
SELL CORIANDER AUG BELOW 7600 TARGET 7555 7455 SL
ABOVE 7665
GUARGUM
BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 7490 TARGET 7540 7610 SL
BELOW 7430
SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 7250 TARGET 7200 7130 SL
ABOVE 7310
As per the Coffee Board of India, provisional Indian green
coffee exports from 1st January 2016 to 20th July 2016 is
registered higher by 17.11% at 179158 metric tons
compared to 152973 metric tons exported during the
corresponding period of previous year. India re-exports
maximum Instant type of coffee. Instant Coffee export from
1st January 2016 to 20th July 2016 this year, recorded
down by 5.17% at 14171 metric tons from preceding year
volume of 14945 metric tons. Total provisional exports of
Arabica parchment, Arabica Cherry and Robusta Cherry is
placed higher by 27.33% at 31126, 0.82% to 8185 metric
tonnes and 30.71% at 107271 metric tons respectively
against exports volume of 24444 metric ton, 8118 metric
tonnes and 82063 metric tons respectively in the
corresponding period of last year.
Jeera August future market up by 3.52% (High – 19920/Qtl)
on Friday. Domestic buyers reported active in the spot
market as higher export demand reported. Export demand
reported as compared to last year in the spot market due to
good quality supply. Vietnam and China are the major
buyers for Indian Jeera during the period.
Total Rice exported from India in the second week of July
was 234991.85 tons out of which basmati rice contribute
35.64%, and non-basmati rice is 64.35% in this period with
quantity of around 83772.01 tons and 151219.84 tons
respectively as per latest data extract from IBIS. Major
importers of Indian Basmati rice in this period were Iran,
Saudi and UAE. We expect Middle East countries to remain
the major basmati buyers of Indian Basmati from Mundra
and Kakinada Port in coming months. Major non basmati
importers were Guinea, Benin and Senegal. Weekly rice
export were up by around 20% from last week export of
196115.95 tons
6. DAILY REPORT
25
th
JULY 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
RBI Reference Rate
Currency Rate Currency Rate
Rupee- $ 67.135 Yen-100 63.140
Euro 74.030 GBP 88.947
CURRENCY
USD/INR
BUY USD/INR JULY ABOVE 67.16 TARGET 67.29 67.44 SL
BELOW 66.96
SELL USD/INR JULY BELOW 67.08 TARGET 66.95 66.8 SL
ABOVE 67.28
EUR/INR
BUY EUR/INR JULY ABOVE 74.15 TARGET 74.3 74.5 SL
BELOW 73.95
SELL EUR/INR JULY BELOW 73.94 TARGET 73.79 73.59 SL
ABOVE 74.14
CURRENCY MARKET UPDATES:
Indian rupee reversed its losses and ended 9 paise up at
67.08 against the US dollar on Friday at the Interbank
Foreign Exchange market following a mixed set of US
economic data amid rally in domestic stock markets. The
local currency has opened tad lower against the US dollar
on Friday and lost 1 paise to 67.18. It had closed 3 paise up
at 67.17 on Thursday.
US job data released overnight showed initial jobless
claims hit a three-month low at a seasonally adjusted
253,000 for the week ended July 16. Mid-Atlantic factory
activity, however, contracted, but details showed
expanding new orders and employment.
“FPIs have poured $2.23 billion in the month of July,
almost equally split between debt and equity segment.
Over the near term, we expect the liquidity rush to
continue, which means, US dollar may be now more at the
mercy of the buying from RBI. We continue to see USD/INR
to trade between 66.70/80 and 67.30 on spot over the
near term. However, rupee to remain firm against Yen and
GBP,” Anindya Banerjee, currency analyst, Kotak Securities
said. The Reserve Bank of India’s reference rate for the
dollar stood at 67.13 and for Euro stood at 74.03 on July
22, 2016. While the RBI’s reference rate for the Yen stood
at 63.41, the reference rate for the Great Britain Pound
(GBP) stood at 88.94.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback's
strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major
currencies, was up 0.23 per cent at 97.16 in early tradE.The
RBI fixed the reference rate for the dollar at 67.1355 and
euro at 74.0303. In cross-currency trades, the rupee
staged a rebound against the pound sterling to close at
87.90 as against 88.51 yesterday and edged higher against
the euro to settle at 73.91 compared to 73.98
previously. But, the rupee held virtually steady against the
Japanese yen at 63.22 per 100 yens.
7. DAILY REPORT
25
th
JULY 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Date
Commodity/ Currency
Pairs
Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
22/07/16 NCDEX DHANIYA AUG. BUY 7780 7825-7925 7715 NOT EXECUTED
22/07/16 NCDEX DHANIYA AUG. SELL 7825 7500-7570 7715 1ST TARGET
22/07/16 NCDEX GUARGUM OCT. BUY 7450 7500-7570 7390 NOT EXECUTED
22/07/16 NCDEX GUARGUM OCT. SELL 7230 7180-7110 7290 NOT EXECUTED
22/07/16 MCX GOLD AUG. BUY 31050 31150-31350 30950 NOT EXECUTED
22/07/16 MCX GOLD AUG. SELL 30950 30850-30650 31050 1ST TARGET
22/07/16 MCX SILVER SEPT. BUY 46725 47025-47625 46425 NOT EXECUTED
22/07/16 MCX SILVER SEPT. SELL 45595 45295-45095 45895 NOT EXECUTED
Date Scrip
CASH/
FUTURE/
OPTION
Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
22/07/16 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 8550-8555 8510-8450 8615 EXIT AT COST
22/07/16 ASIANPAINTS FUTURE BUY 1048 1055-1065 1039 PROFIT BOOKED
22/07/16 SBIN FUTURE SELL 228-228.50 225-221 232.50 NOT EXECUTED
22/07/16 DISHTV CASH BUY 99.50 100.50-102 97.35 NOT EXECUTED
8. DAILY REPORT
25
th
JULY 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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TIME REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL
CONSENSUS
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
MONDAY, JULY 25
NONE SCHEDULED
TUESDAY, JULY 26
9 AM CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICES MAY -- 5.0%
9:45 AM MARKIT SERVICES PMI, FLASH JULY -- 51.4
10 AM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX JULY -- 98.0
10 AM NEW HOME SALES JUNE -- 551,000
WEDNESDAY, JULY 27
8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS JUNE -- -2.3%
8:30 AM CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS JUNE -- -0.4%
10 AM PENDING HOME SALES JUNE -- -3.7%
2 PM FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT 0.25-0.50% 0.25-0.50%
THURSDAY, JULY 28
8:30 AM WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS 7/23 N/A N/A
8:30 AM ADVANCE TRADE IN GOODS JUNE -- -$60.6BLN
10 AM RENTAL VACANCY RATE Q2 -- 7.0%
FRIDAY, JULY 29
8:30 AM GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Q2 2.5% 1.1% (Q1)
8:30 AM EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX Q2 -- 0.6%
9:45 AM CHICAGO PMI JULY -- 56.8
10 AM CONSUMER SENTIMENT JULY -- 89.5 (JULY)