Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations

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Black Swan is a term used in economics to discuss resilience of complex systems to failures. Black Swans are directly applicable to clouds which are basically large resource economies (where real economies are based on money). This paper develops a framework which can profile Black Swans in clouds at arbitrary levels of aggregation and make placement or migration decisions based on the outcome of profiling.

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Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations

  1. 1. . . The Black Swan Property M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 2 /19 2/19
  2. 2. . . The Black Swan • the Black Swan property is well known 01 • how common do you think black swans are around the world? • are they common in Japan? • I have two in a pond near my home... 01 N.Taleb "The black swan: the impact of highly improbable" Penguin (2008) M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 3 /19 3/19
  3. 3. . . rare events have more impact • basically, Frequency = probability The Black Swan : Illustration (trains) Scheduling Problem (±10m) Human accident (±40m) Accounted for Un-accounted for Train brakes down (±4h) 9.11, 3.11, …. (±3d) Events (ordered by prob.) M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 4 /19 4/19
  4. 4. . . The Black Swan : Convex is Bad . Black Swan Property . When complex systems have swans. . • convex behavior in their components, they have black convex = Long Tail • disasters hide in the Long Tail 09 • because disasters are rare, they are normally unaccounted 06 • when disasters happen, we are completely unprepared 09 R.Kennet+1 "Quality, Risk and the Taleb Quadrants" IBM Research (2009) 06 A.Nafday "Consequence-based stuctural design ... for black swan..." Elsevier ...Safety (2011) M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 5 /19 5/19
  5. 5. . . Black Swan in Engineering M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 6 /19 6/19
  6. 6. . . Two Ways to Handle Black Swans . Method 1 . fast response ... when Black Swan is detected, react promptly . • popoular in Black Swan engineering today 05 06 . Method 2 . robust design • catch . Black Swans before they happen • this method today! • not very popular in engineering • the problem of noticability threshold 05 L.McGinty+1 "Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare Birds" Springer LNAI vol.5650 (2009) 06 A.Nafday "Consequence-based stuctural design ... for black swan..." Elsevier ...Safety (2011) M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 7 /19 7/19
  7. 7. . . Black Swans in Clouds : the Model object in clouds (VM, etc.) rank Rk • each • risk potential of each object is • evaluation of risk gets as Rk = wi Fk (v, t) (1) Pk = |Rk,i − Rk,i−1 |. (2) E = var({Pk }), (3) EVO = var({Et }). ∑ ∑ minimize Pij . (4) i=1..t Pk E for a given system / collection of objects • evolution of evaluation in time EVO • finally, optimization (minimization of risk) and statistical evaluation of risks are possible M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- (5) i=1,n j=1,m ∫ • 2nd order norm and variance ∑ ˆ L= ∫ K (K−x)f(x)dx 0 and 2 σL K (K−x)2 f(x)dx. = 0 Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- (6) 8 /19 8/19
  8. 8. . . Specific Black Swan Method for Clouds M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 9 /19 9/19
  9. 9. . . Black Swan in Clouds: Terminology • VM : virtual machine ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ • VMs can migrate when necessary 04 we assume that we can measure the load or study traffic 02 ... or use any other method for performance measurement PM : physical machine in the a cloud ◦ the load is the sum of VM loads • APP : a multi-VM application 04 myself+1 "VM Migration Avoidance based on Flow Workload Classification" IEICEソサエティ学会 (2013) 02 1+myself "Active Network Measurement: Theory, Methods, and Tools" ITU Japan (2009) M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 10 /19 10/19
  10. 10. . . VM Load : Flash Crowd Model 02 1+myself "Active Network Measurement: Theory, Methods, and Tools" ITU Japan (2009) M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 11 /19 11/19
  11. 11. . . PM and APP Ranks M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 12 /19 12/19
  12. 12. . . Simulation Setup • methods: do nothing, PM swans, and APP swans D : history depth (for E) • p : per-VM probability of a Flash Crowd • Lmin, Lmax, La : VM utilization levels and slope • PMs : number of PMs, fixed at 30 (5x6) grid • APPs : number of applications, each needs 3 VMs • R : how many fixes per epoch • • PM load to response time 1 T = [(L − n) + 2 ◦ load above √ (L − n)2 + k ] 1−L 0.9 considered dangerous (all VMs are impacted) M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- (7) 13 /19 13/19
  13. 13. . . Models 1. do nothing ◦ do not try to prevent Black Swans 2. PM swans ◦ prevent Black Swans in PMs 3. APP swans ◦ prevent Black Swans in APPs M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 14 /19 14/19
  14. 14. . . Results : Snapshot 1 : Do Nothing 2 • raw PDF movie in separate file! M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- 4 0 5 4 10 4 5 1 4 8 1 3 10 7 8 1 6 4 0 3 1 4 Method#do.nothing EPOCH#387 1 6 • ... color is utilization 6 5 dark PMs can occur 10 1 • several 0 VM LOAD EVALS 3 JOBS Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 15 /19 15/19
  15. 15. . . Results : Snapshot 2 : PM Swans 1 6 4 6 4 6 3 1 4 7 2 9 6 3 4 5 4 3 0 1 8 3 4 Method#PM.swans EPOCH#480 1 0 M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- 4 4 • PDF movie separately! 3 6 • better overall spread 1 VM LOAD EVALS 3 JOBS Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 16 /19 16/19
  16. 16. . . Results : Snapshot 3 : APP Swans 4 1 6 4 6 7 2 0 7 5 5 6 6 1 4 1 0 8 7 9 0 8 5 Method#APP.swans EPOCH#465 2 1 M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- 3 7 • PDF movie separately! 2 0 • better overall spread 7 VM LOAD EVALS 3 JOBS Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 17 /19 17/19
  17. 17. . . Results : Catching Swans (red dot!) log( runs between failures) APP.swans 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 PM.swans do.nothing D=10 p=0.05 APPs=30 R=10 4 M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Number of Group-Failed PMs (0..30) 24 26 Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 18 /19 18/19
  18. 18. . . That’s all, thank you ... M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 19 /19 19/19
  19. 19. . . [01] N.Taleb (2008) The black swan: the impact of highly improbable Penguin [02] 1+myself (2009) Active Network Measurement: Theory, Methods, and Tools ITU Japan [03] myself+1 (2012) Popularity-Based Modeling of Flash Events in Synthetic Packet Traces IEICE CQ研 [04] myself+1 (2013) VM Migration Avoidance based on Flow Workload Classification IEICEソサエティ学会 [05] L.McGinty+1 (2009) Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare Birds Springer LNAI vol.5650 M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 19 /19 19/19
  20. 20. . . [06] A.Nafday (2011) Consequence-based stuctural design ... for black swan... Elsevier ...Safety [07] G.Wright+1 (2009) Decision making and planning ....low predictability... ...Journal of Forecasting [08] T.Aven (2009) Identification of safety and security critical systems.... Journal of Reliability... [09] R.Kennet+1 (2009) Quality, Risk and the Taleb Quadrants IBM Research M.Zhanikeev -- maratishe@gmail.com -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 19 /19 19/19

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