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‫داریم‬ ‫هرچی‬ ‫که‬ ‫او‬ ‫نام‬ ‫به‬‫از‬
‫اوست‬.....
‫نگاهی‬‫به‬‫آمار‬‫نفت‬ ‫بخش‬ ‫بر‬ ‫تمرکز‬ ‫با‬ ‫ایران‬ ‫تجارت‬
‫مربوطه‬ ‫استاد‬:‫زاده‬ ‫رضاقلی‬ ‫خانم‬
‫محقق‬:‫یزدانی‬ ‫وریا‬
‫دوم‬ ‫نیمسال‬92-93
‫نـــکــــتـــه‬
●، ‫نمودار‬ ‫در‬10‫است‬ ‫گرديده‬ ‫لحاظ‬ ‫اول‬ ‫ر‬‫کشو‬
●‫باشند‬ ‫می‬ ‫دالر‬ ‫به‬ ‫ارقام‬
‫نگاهی‬‫به‬‫کل‬ ‫آمار‬‫صادارات‬‫ایران‬
0
10,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
70,000,000,000
1383 1384 1385 1386 1387 1388 1389 1390 1391
‫پولی‬‫ارزش‬(‫دالر‬)‫صادرات‬
‫سال‬
‫کل‬ ‫صادرات‬
‫ایران‬ ‫شرکا‬ ‫بزگترین‬‫چند‬ ‫در‬‫اخیر‬ ‫سال‬
‫کمی‬ ‫با‬‫تامل‬‫تحریم‬ ‫که‬ ‫فهمید‬ ‫میتوان‬ ‫نمودارها‬ ‫بررسی‬ ‫و‬‫ک‬ ‫گذشته‬ ‫سال‬ ‫چند‬ ‫در‬ ‫ها‬‫از‬ ‫ه‬
‫سال‬2008‫خاصی‬ ‫جدیت‬‫و‬ ‫گرفت‬ ‫خود‬ ‫به‬‫ایران‬ ‫اقتصاد‬‫را‬ ‫صادرات‬ ‫خصوص‬ ‫به‬ ‫را‬
‫بود‬ ‫داده‬ ‫قرار‬ ‫هدف‬‫تاثیری‬ ‫چه‬‫الگو‬ ‫بر‬‫ایران‬ ‫تجارت‬‫است‬ ‫داده‬ ‫قرار‬.
‫به‬‫میشود‬ ‫دیده‬ ‫وضوح‬‫امارات‬ ‫که‬‫عربی‬ ‫متحده‬‫و‬‫حدودی‬ ‫تا‬‫در‬ ‫عراق‬‫یک‬ ‫نقش‬
‫گر‬ ‫واسطه‬‫این‬ ‫در‬‫است‬ ‫شده‬ ‫ظاهر‬ ‫الگو‬.
‫دور‬ ‫در‬ ‫مارا‬ ‫که‬ ‫متحده‬ ‫امارات‬ ‫نماند‬ ‫ناگفته‬ ‫البته‬‫تحریم‬ ‫زدن‬‫ها‬!، ‫است‬ ‫کرده‬ ‫کمک‬‫خود‬
‫بسیار‬ ‫سودهایی‬ ‫نیز‬‫به‬ ‫کاالها‬ ‫فروش‬ ‫از‬ ‫کالن‬‫اولیه‬ ‫مقاصد‬‫ما‬‫جیب‬ ‫به‬‫است‬ ‫زده‬.
‫چین‬
22%
‫عراق‬
20%
‫عربی‬ ‫متحده‬ ‫امارات‬
18%
‫هند‬
11%
‫افغانستان‬
9%
‫تركیه‬
6%
‫كره‬ ‫جمهوري‬
5% ‫سنگاپور‬
5%
‫اندونزي‬
4%
‫سال‬ ‫صادرات‬1390
‫عــــراق‬
25%
‫چـــیـــــن‬
22%
‫عربی‬ ‫متحده‬ ‫امارات‬
15%
‫فغانستان‬
11%
‫هـــنـــد‬
11%
‫تــرکــیــه‬
6%
‫کره‬ ‫جمهوری‬
4%
‫ترکمنـسـتا‬‫ن‬
3% ‫پاكـسـتــان‬
3%
‫سال‬ ‫در‬ ‫صادرات‬1391
‫ایران‬ ‫سهم‬‫از‬‫آنالین‬ ‫و‬ ‫جهانی‬ ‫تجارت‬
‫ایران‬ ‫سهم‬‫از‬‫جهانی‬ ‫تجارت‬۵۷‫است‬ ‫درصد‬ ‫صدم‬‫این‬ ‫رسیدن‬ ‫برای‬ ‫که‬‫عدد‬
‫یک‬ ‫به‬‫مدت‬ ‫در‬ ‫درصد‬۵‫سال‬‫ریزی‬‫برنامه‬ ،‫است‬ ‫شده‬.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
‫گزارشات‬‫آماری‬‫صادرات‬‫ایران‬ ‫نفتی‬ ‫غیر‬‫به‬‫تفكیك‬‫سال‬
‫اهداف‬
‫عملکرد‬
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
‫سال‬ ‫واردات‬ ‫عمده‬ ‫اقالم‬1387
‫پولی‬ ‫ارزش‬ ‫ترتیب‬ ‫به‬
‫عمده‬ ‫اقالم‬‫صادرات‬‫سال‬1387
‫به‬‫ترتیب‬‫ارزش‬‫پولی‬
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
‫اقالم‬‫واردات‬ ‫عمده‬‫سال‬1388
‫پولی‬ ‫ارزش‬ ‫ترتیب‬ ‫به‬
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
‫اقالم‬‫عمده‬‫سال‬ ‫صادرات‬1388
‫پولی‬ ‫ارزش‬ ‫ترتیب‬ ‫به‬
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
‫اقالم‬‫واردات‬ ‫عمده‬‫سال‬1389
‫پولی‬ ‫ارزش‬ ‫ترتیب‬ ‫به‬
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
‫اقالم‬‫عمده‬‫سال‬ ‫صادرات‬1389
‫پولی‬ ‫ارزش‬ ‫ترتیب‬ ‫به‬
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
‫اقالم‬‫عمده‬‫سال‬ ‫واردات‬1390
‫پولی‬ ‫ارزش‬ ‫ترتیب‬ ‫به‬
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
‫اقالم‬‫عمده‬‫سال‬ ‫صادرات‬1390
‫پولی‬ ‫ارزش‬ ‫ترتیب‬ ‫به‬
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
‫اقالم‬‫عمده‬‫سال‬ ‫واردات‬1391
‫پولی‬ ‫ارزش‬ ‫ترتیب‬ ‫به‬
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
‫اقالم‬‫عمده‬‫سال‬ ‫صادرات‬1391
‫پولی‬ ‫ارزش‬ ‫ترتیب‬ ‫به‬
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
‫ی‬‫ز‬‫ار‬‫آمدهای‬‫ر‬‫د‬‫ی‬ ‫س‬‫ر‬‫بر‬ ‫نتيجه‬‫ر‬‫کشو‬
‫حدود‬70‫الی‬80‫باشد‬‫می‬ ‫خام‬‫نفت‬‫ات‬‫ر‬‫صاد‬ ‫از‬‫ر‬‫کشو‬ ‫ی‬‫ز‬‫ار‬‫آمدهای‬‫ر‬‫د‬ ‫صد‬‫ر‬‫د‬.
‫و‬ ‫مالياتی‬ ‫آمدهای‬‫ر‬‫د‬‫نيز‬ ‫نفتی‬‫غير‬‫عمدتا‬‫يشه‬‫ر‬‫ند‬‫ر‬‫دا‬ ‫نفتی‬
‫ن‬ ‫رد‬‫ر‬‫م‬‫آ‬‫ر‬‫د‬ ‫ی‬ ‫رو‬‫ر‬‫ن‬ ‫ر‬‫ر‬‫م‬‫ع‬‫رينی‬‫ر‬‫ش‬‫رو‬ ‫ی‬ ‫رای‬‫ر‬‫ه‬‫یاع‬ ‫و‬ ‫ی‬‫راز‬‫ر‬‫ی‬ ‫رات‬‫ر‬‫ن‬‫ا‬ ‫مي‬ ‫ات‬‫ر‬‫راد‬‫ر‬‫ص‬ ‫از‬ ‫رر‬‫ر‬‫ص‬‫حا‬ ‫رد‬‫ر‬‫م‬‫آ‬‫ر‬‫د‬ ‫ره‬‫ر‬‫ک‬ ‫ا‬‫ر‬‫ر‬‫ر‬‫چ‬‫ری‬‫ر‬‫ت‬‫ف‬
‫شوند‬ ‫می‬ ‫محسوب‬
‫يابند‬ ‫می‬ ‫یاهش‬ ‫نيز‬ ‫مالياتی‬ ‫آمدهای‬‫ر‬‫د‬ ،‫نفتی‬ ‫آمد‬‫ر‬‫د‬ ‫یاهش‬ ‫ت‬‫ر‬‫صو‬ ‫در‬.
‫د‬‫ر‬‫دا‬ ‫مردم‬ ‫يشت‬ ‫م‬‫و‬ ‫ر‬‫کشو‬‫اقتصاد‬‫در‬ ‫ی‬ ‫اساس‬‫نقش‬ ‫نفتی‬ ‫آمد‬‫ر‬‫د‬ ‫لذا‬.
‫کاهش‬‫نفت‬ ‫آمد‬‫ر‬‫د‬
‫عمومی‬ ‫بودجه‬ ‫کاهش‬
‫مواد‬ ‫دات‬‫ر‬‫وا‬ ‫کاهش‬ ‫موجب‬
‫آل‬ ‫ماشين‬‫و‬ ‫صنعتی‬ ‫اوليه‬‫ت‬
‫صنعت‬ ‫در‬ ‫رکود‬ ‫مالياتی‬ ‫توان‬ ‫کاهش‬
‫نفتی‬ ‫آمد‬‫ر‬‫د‬ ‫یاهش‬ ‫با‬ ‫ماليات‬ ‫یاهش‬
‫نگاهی‬‫متفاوت‬‫صادراتی‬ ‫کاالهای‬ ‫به‬
‫سال‬ ‫پایان‬ ‫در‬1391، ‫پژو‬ ‫و‬ ‫پراید‬ ‫عجیب‬ ‫های‬ ‫قیمت‬ ‫شنیدن‬ ‫به‬ ‫مردم‬ ‫که‬
‫بودند‬ ‫کرده‬ ‫عادت‬ ‫بیش‬ ‫و‬ ‫کم‬ ‫ارز‬ ‫نرخ‬ ‫و‬ ‫پسته‬
‫وقتی‬‫و‬ ‫کمبود‬ ‫موضوع‬ ‫که‬‫گرانی‬، ‫شد‬ ‫مطرح‬ ‫دارو‬‫بهداشت‬ ‫وزیر‬‫ا‬ ‫خبر‬‫ز‬
‫واردات‬‫زین‬‫و‬ ‫اسب‬‫غذای‬‫ارز‬ ‫اختصاص‬ ‫و‬ ‫گربه‬ ‫و‬ ‫سگ‬‫برای‬ ‫دولتی‬
‫قلم‬ ‫دها‬ ‫واردات‬‫غیرضرورداده‬ ‫کاالی‬‫بود‬.‫در‬‫بررسی‬‫واردات‬ ‫آمار‬‫سال‬ ‫طی‬
1391‫با‬‫نام‬‫کاالهایی‬‫روبرو‬‫شدم‬‫آنها‬ ‫موضوع‬ ‫و‬ ‫نام‬ ‫دانستن‬ ‫که‬‫برای‬‫شم‬‫ا‬
‫خالی‬‫لطف‬ ‫از‬‫نمی‬‫تواند‬‫باشد‬
۷۴۰‫آدامس‬ ‫تن‬(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬۱۷۰۴۱۰۰۰)
۲‫مشق‬ ‫دفتر‬ ‫تن‬(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬۴۸۲۰۲۰۰۰)
۸۲۰‫بیل‬ ‫دسته‬ ‫تن‬!!!(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬۸۲۰۱۱۰۰۰)
151‫دالر‬ ‫هزار‬‫ماهیگیری‬ ‫قالب‬
929‫دالر‬ ‫هزار‬‫تراز‬‫بنایی‬
(1387)
485‫هزار‬‫زیپ‬ ‫دالر‬
21588‫تقویم‬ ‫دالر‬
۲۲‫عصا‬ ‫تن‬(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬۶۶۰۲۰۰۰۰)
۸۰۰‫تراش‬ ‫مداد‬ ‫تن‬(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬۸۲۱۴۱۰۱۰)
۵۰۰‫میخ‬ ‫تن‬(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬۷۳۱۷۰۰۰۰)
۶‫کراوات‬ ‫تن‬(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬:۶۲۱۵۹۰۰۰)
۲۲۱‫موش‬ ‫مرگ‬ ‫تن‬(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬:۳۸۰۸۹۹۱۹)
‫نیم‬‫تن‬‫آرایش‬ ‫برای‬ ‫هایی‬ ‫فرآورده‬‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬ ‫با‬ ‫لب‬۳۳۰۴۱۰۰۰
973‫تن‬‫پالستیکی‬ ‫بطری‬ ‫درب‬(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬:۳۹۲۳۵۰۰۰)
۳‫پشم‬ ‫تن‬ ‫هزار‬(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬:۵۱۰۵۲۱۰۰‫و‬۵۱۰۵۱۰۰۰‫و‬
۵۱۰۱۲۱۰۰)
۲۶‫هزار‬‫پیچ‬ ‫تن‬‫مهره‬ ‫و‬(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬۷۳۱۸۱۲۹۰)
‫سنگ‬ ‫قلوه‬ ‫تن‬ ‫نیم‬(‫تعرفه‬ ‫کد‬:۲۵۱۷۱۰۱۰.)
Oil Income -Import
0.00
10,000,000,000.00
20,000,000,000.00
30,000,000,000.00
40,000,000,000.00
50,000,000,000.00
60,000,000,000.00
70,000,000,000.00
80,000,000,000.00
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
Oil Income
Import
‫نــــفـــــتــــی‬ ‫درآمــــد‬ ‫مــیــزان‬
‫نفتی‬‫آمدهای‬‫ر‬‫د‬
‫مورد‬ ‫دوره‬‫بررس‬‫ی‬
‫و‬ ‫نفت‬ ‫ساليانه‬ ‫درآمد‬‫گاز‬
(‫دالر‬ ‫ميليارد‬)
‫درآمد‬ ‫مجموع‬‫نفت‬‫ی‬
‫انقالب‬ ‫از‬ ‫قبل‬
‫سال‬ ‫تا‬ ‫آغاز‬ ‫از‬١٣٥٢26.818
1352 - 1357112.719
‫دوره‬ ‫جمع‬139.537
‫درآمد‬ ‫مجموع‬‫نفت‬‫ی‬
‫تا‬ ‫انقالب‬ ‫از‬ ‫پس‬1384
‫انقالب‬ ‫اول‬ ‫هاي‬ ‫سال‬35.806
‫چهارم‬ ‫و‬ ‫سوم‬ ‫دولت‬110.686
‫ششم‬ ‫و‬ ‫پنجم‬ ‫دولت‬141.703
‫هشتم‬ ‫و‬ ‫هفتم‬ ‫دولت‬157.277
‫دوره‬ ‫جمع‬445.472
‫درآمد‬‫نفت‬‫ی‬‫هفت‬‫سال‬‫اخير‬(1384-1390)531.882
‫کل‬ ‫مجموع‬1116.891
‫ط‬‫ی‬‫سالها‬‫ی‬1390-1384(‫دالر‬ ‫میلیارد‬)
‫سال‬‫نفتی‬ ‫درآمدهای‬
‫از‬ ‫درصد‬
‫کل‬
‫غیرنفتی‬ ‫درآمدهای‬
‫از‬ ‫درصد‬
‫کل‬
‫درآمد‬ ‫کل‬(‫صادرات‬
‫خدمات‬ ‫و‬ ‫كاال‬)
138453.820
0.7121.480
0.2975.3
138562.011
0.7619.889
0.2481/9
138684.505
0.81
20.0950.19104/6
138786.619
0.79
22.6810.21109/3
138869.957
0.74
24.3430.2694/3
138986.7130.7823.9870.22110/7
139088.2570.7233.7820.28122/039
‫جمع‬‫کل‬531.8820.76166.2570.24698.139
‫ی‬‫ز‬‫ار‬‫آمدهای‬‫ر‬‫د‬
‫نفتی‬ ‫آمد‬‫ر‬‫د‬ ‫از‬‫استفاده‬ ‫نحوه‬
‫است‬ ‫ای‬ ‫سرمايه‬ ‫کاالی‬ ‫نفت‬.
‫شود‬ ‫می‬ ‫محسوب‬ ‫نسلی‬ ‫بين‬ ‫ايی‬‫ر‬‫دا‬.
‫ه‬‫ه‬ ‫در‬ ‫ا‬‫ر‬ ‫هور‬‫ه‬‫ش‬‫ک‬ ‫هرون‬‫ه‬ ‫هی‬‫ه‬ ‫هی‬‫ه‬‫ن‬‫يرومي‬‫و‬ ‫هی‬‫ه‬‫ي‬‫ا‬‫ر‬‫دا‬ ‫هد‬‫ه‬‫ن‬‫بدا‬ ‫هر‬‫ه‬‫ح‬‫م‬ ‫ا‬‫ر‬ ‫هود‬‫ه‬ ‫هی‬‫ه‬‫ل‬‫خ‬ ‫هل‬‫ه‬‫س‬‫ن‬ ‫هه‬‫ه‬‫ک‬‫اين‬‫هر‬‫ه‬‫م‬‫ع‬ ‫ول‬
‫نيست‬ ‫صحيح‬ ‫کند‬ ‫نابود‬ ‫و‬ ‫مصرف‬ ‫ود‬.
‫ه‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫ب‬ ‫هه‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫ک‬ ‫هت‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫س‬‫اين‬ ‫ن‬ ‫برد‬‫ر‬‫ها‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫ک‬ ‫ين‬‫ر‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫س‬ ‫هي‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫آ‬‫م‬ ‫هت‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫س‬‫ا‬ ‫هی‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫ن‬‫يرومي‬‫و‬ ‫هی‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫ي‬‫ا‬‫ر‬‫دا‬ ‫هون‬‫ه‬‫ه‬ ‫هت‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫ف‬‫ن‬‫هی‬‫ه‬‫ه‬‫ي‬‫ا‬‫ر‬‫دا‬ ‫ه‬
‫شود‬ ‫سبديل‬ ‫ومينی‬ ‫روی‬ ‫و‬ ‫ماندگار‬.
‫ي‬‫و‬ ‫ی‬‫ار‬ ‫ه‬‫ه‬‫گ‬ ‫هرمايه‬‫ه‬‫س‬ ‫و‬ ‫هدگار‬‫ه‬‫ن‬‫ما‬ ‫هی‬‫ه‬‫ي‬‫ا‬‫ر‬‫دا‬ ‫هه‬‫ه‬‫ب‬ ‫هاي‬‫ه‬ ‫هت‬‫ه‬‫ف‬‫ن‬ ‫ات‬‫ر‬‫هاد‬‫ه‬‫ص‬ ‫او‬ ‫هل‬‫ه‬‫ص‬‫حا‬ ‫هابص‬‫ه‬‫ن‬‫م‬ ‫هديل‬‫ه‬‫ب‬‫س‬‫هايی‬‫ه‬‫ن‬‫ب‬‫ر‬
‫است‬ ‫منابص‬ ‫اين‬ ‫برد‬‫ر‬‫کا‬ ‫ين‬‫ر‬‫س‬ ‫اصولی‬.
‫وادرات‬ ‫از‬ ‫ول‬ ‫صا‬ ‫درآمودهاح‬ ،‫عمووم‬ ‫بودجه‬ ‫تامين‬ ‫منبع‬ ‫ترين‬ ‫عمده‬
‫باشد‬ ،‫م‬ ‫آن‬ ‫با‬ ‫مرتبط‬ ‫هاح‬ ‫فرآورده‬ ‫و‬ ‫نفت‬.
‫ک‬ ‫است‬ ،‫ماليات‬ ‫درآمدهاح‬ ،‫عموم‬ ‫بودجه‬ ‫تامين‬ ‫منبع‬ ‫از‬ ،‫بخش‬ ،‫ول‬‫آن‬ ‫ه‬
‫است‬ ،‫نفت‬ ‫درآمدهاح‬ ‫به‬ ،‫متک‬ ‫هم‬.
‫ن‬‫قانو‬‫سال‬ ‫بودجه‬1391‫ر‬‫کشو‬ ‫یر‬
‫دات‬‫ر‬‫وا‬ ‫از‬‫یاعها‬‫سهم‬
‫كاال‬ ‫واردات‬ ‫کل‬ ‫از‬ ‫کاال‬ ‫انواع‬ ‫سهم‬‫سالهای‬ ‫طی‬90-1384
‫سال‬‫مصرفی‬ ‫کاالی‬‫و‬‫واسطه‬‫ای‬(‫درصد‬)‫ای‬ ‫سرمایه‬ ‫کاالی‬(‫درصد‬)
138477.622.4
138582.3117.69
138683.5716.43
138782.6317.37
138884.1215.88
138985.2814.72
139085.6314.36
‫میانگین‬82.9816.81
1904
359.9
143.5
131.8
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
‫چین‬
‫صعود‬ ‫عربستان‬‫ی‬
‫ترکیه‬
‫ایران‬
‫صادرات‬91
‫صادرات‬91
2236
232.9
117.4
76.1
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
‫متحده‬ ‫ایاالت‬
‫ترکیه‬
‫صعودی‬ ‫عرستان‬
‫ایران‬
import
‫مــــــنــــــابــــــــع‬
www.tccim.ir
www.cbi.com
ww.irica.gov.ir
www.entekhab.ir
www.economagic.com
www.tradingeconomics.com
www.nationmaster.com
‫اد‬ ‫اقت‬ ‫گزارشات‬‫ح‬‫سالها‬‫ح‬‫مرکز‬ ‫بانک‬ ‫مختلف‬‫ح‬
‫ايران‬ ،‫اسالم‬ ‫جمهورح‬ ‫گمرک‬ ‫اداره‬
‫نم‬‫اگرها‬‫ح‬‫اد‬ ‫اقت‬‫ح‬‫مرکز‬ ‫بانک‬‫ح‬‫ها‬ ‫شماره‬‫ح‬‫مختلف‬
‫نفت‬ ‫وزارت‬ ‫الملل‬ ‫بين‬ ‫امور‬ ‫و‬ ،‫داراي‬ ‫و‬ ‫اد‬ ‫اقت‬ ‫امور‬ ‫وزارت‬ ‫گزارش‬
Oil trade

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Oil trade