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COMMODITY MARKET
VAIBHAV RANDHAI
DERIVATIVES
FORWARD
AND
FUTURES
OPTIONSHEDGE
EFFECT OF GOLD PRICES ON VARIOUS SECTORTS
• EFFECT ON INDIAN ECONOMY
• EFFECT ON STOCK MARKET
• EFFECT ON CURRENCY
• RELATION BETWEEN GOLD AND OIL
Contribition of Steel in Indian Economy
• Steel plays an important role in contributing to the development of a
country and accelerating its growth. It is also the backbone of human
civilization and is used in manufacture of electrical machinery, metal
products, textile and transport equipment etc. Steel is a product of a
technologically multifaceted and large industry. In 2006, India ranked as
the 5th largest country in production of steel globally. The country has the
richest coal and iron ore mines and its cost of production is lower
compared to that of other countries. The country has also maintained lead
position as the largest producer of steel globally. In 2010, the production of
steel in the country was 1414 million tonnes which was a 15% growth from
2009. If expansion plans proposed are implemented according to schedule,
then the country will become the 2nd largest producer of steel globally by
2015-2016.
Market Size
 India’s crude steel production grew by 9.4 per cent year-on-year to at
8.1Million Tonnes (MT) in August 2016.
During April-August 2016, crude steel production in the country grew by
7 per cent year-on-year to 39.98 MT.
 Over April-August 2016, steel imports fell 34.5 per cent year-on-year to
3.01 MT, while steel exports rose 23.6 per cent year-on-year to 2.38 MT.
 Steel consumption in the country is expected to grow 5.3 per cent year-
on-year to 85.8 MT during FY2016-17, led by growth in the
construction and capital goods sector.
PRODUCTION CHART OF STEEL INDUSTRIES IN INDIA IN
PRESENT DAYS
Vision 2020 of the Steel Industry in India
• The National Steel Policy – 2005 aims at increasing the total steel
production of the country to 110 million tonnes per year (in 2019-20)
from 38 million tonnes (in 2004-05). This was supposed to require a
compounded annual growth of about 7.3%. The total production in
2010 was 66.8 million tonnes. The compounded annual growth from
2005 to 2010 has been more than 9% which is better than the
expected growth. But most of these are a result of the brown field
expansion projects of the existing steel companies. But to continue
with the same growth rate, we need new Greenfield projects.
Steel Industry And Impact On Various Sector
1.Automobile Industries
2.Aviation Industries
3.Tractor Industries
4. Real Estate.
5 Textile Industries,
6 Construction.
What is Crude Oil
 Crude oil is a naturally-occurring
substance found in certain rock
formations in the earth.
 It is a dark, sticky liquid
classified as a hydrocarbon. This
means, it is a compound
containing mainly carbon and
hydrogen.
 Crude oil is highly flammable
and can be burned to create
energy.
 Petroleum= Petra (Rock) +
Oleum (Oil) (Latin)
Jul 2016 2,972.33 -7.37 %
Aug 2016 3,001.48 0.98 %
Sep 2016 3,007.39 0.20 %
Oct 2016 3,290.46 9.41 %
Nov 2016 3,057.64 -7.08 %
Dec 2016 3,572.16 16.83 %
Jan 2017 3,652.61 2.25 %
Feb 2017 3,647.70 -0.13 %
Crude Oil (petroleum) Monthly Price -
Indian Rupee per Barre
Crude Oil Production
 Crude Oil Production in India decreased
to 736 BBL/D/1K in March from 746
BBL/D/1K in February of 2016.
 Crude Oil Production in India averaged
694.49 BBL/D/1K from 1994 until 2016,
reaching an all time high of 813
BBL/D/1K in November of 2010 and a
record low of 526 BBL/D/1K in May of
1994
India wholesale price index
Indian wholesale prices rose 6.55
percent year-on-year in February of
2017, following a 5.25 percent gain in
January while markets expected a
5.90 percent rise.
 It was the eleventh straight month of
increase and the highest since
November 2013
India’s oil Imports from different
countries
18%
11%
22%
10%
34%
5% Saudi Arabia
Iran
Africa
Western
Hemisphere
Other middle
east
Other
9%
8%
7%
36%
40%
LPG
Kerosene
Petrol
Diesel
All other product
Consumption of major petroleum
products
Factor affecting crude oil price
 World oil demand
 World oil supply
 Weather conditions
 Government policy
 Political Conditions
 Futures Market
Subsidy
• India’s subsidy bill zoomed to Rs 2.16
trillion or 2.5% of GDP .
• It was due to two reason:
High Crude Oil prices
Fertilizer subsidies, primarily on account
of imported non-urea fertilizers.
• Government to save Rs 54,223 crore as
oil subsidy slides 29% in 2015-16
Inflation
• Crude oil price move up or down,
inflation follows in the same direction
• Crude oil price increases, it’s directly
affects the rate inflation. When the
prices went to high of more than
$100/barrel in 2008, the inflation also
went up to 12.27% which was highest
for India in previous two decade
Cotton
Effect of Cotton on various sectors
Effect of Cotton on
various sectors
Cotton- A major Agri-CROP IN india
• Area under cotton cultivation constitutes almost 9%
of total area under agriculture in India
• Cotton crop contributes about 14-16% to total agri-
crop in India
• India has the largest area under cotton (9 million
hectares)
• India presently produces 4.59 million tonnes cotton
Effect Of Cotton Price
• On apparel sector
• On furniture
• It’s used in coffee filters as well
• Lastly, on stock prices as well
Crude oil Commodity

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Crude oil Commodity

  • 3. EFFECT OF GOLD PRICES ON VARIOUS SECTORTS • EFFECT ON INDIAN ECONOMY • EFFECT ON STOCK MARKET • EFFECT ON CURRENCY • RELATION BETWEEN GOLD AND OIL
  • 4. Contribition of Steel in Indian Economy • Steel plays an important role in contributing to the development of a country and accelerating its growth. It is also the backbone of human civilization and is used in manufacture of electrical machinery, metal products, textile and transport equipment etc. Steel is a product of a technologically multifaceted and large industry. In 2006, India ranked as the 5th largest country in production of steel globally. The country has the richest coal and iron ore mines and its cost of production is lower compared to that of other countries. The country has also maintained lead position as the largest producer of steel globally. In 2010, the production of steel in the country was 1414 million tonnes which was a 15% growth from 2009. If expansion plans proposed are implemented according to schedule, then the country will become the 2nd largest producer of steel globally by 2015-2016.
  • 5. Market Size  India’s crude steel production grew by 9.4 per cent year-on-year to at 8.1Million Tonnes (MT) in August 2016. During April-August 2016, crude steel production in the country grew by 7 per cent year-on-year to 39.98 MT.  Over April-August 2016, steel imports fell 34.5 per cent year-on-year to 3.01 MT, while steel exports rose 23.6 per cent year-on-year to 2.38 MT.  Steel consumption in the country is expected to grow 5.3 per cent year- on-year to 85.8 MT during FY2016-17, led by growth in the construction and capital goods sector.
  • 6. PRODUCTION CHART OF STEEL INDUSTRIES IN INDIA IN PRESENT DAYS
  • 7. Vision 2020 of the Steel Industry in India • The National Steel Policy – 2005 aims at increasing the total steel production of the country to 110 million tonnes per year (in 2019-20) from 38 million tonnes (in 2004-05). This was supposed to require a compounded annual growth of about 7.3%. The total production in 2010 was 66.8 million tonnes. The compounded annual growth from 2005 to 2010 has been more than 9% which is better than the expected growth. But most of these are a result of the brown field expansion projects of the existing steel companies. But to continue with the same growth rate, we need new Greenfield projects.
  • 8. Steel Industry And Impact On Various Sector 1.Automobile Industries 2.Aviation Industries 3.Tractor Industries 4. Real Estate. 5 Textile Industries, 6 Construction.
  • 9. What is Crude Oil  Crude oil is a naturally-occurring substance found in certain rock formations in the earth.  It is a dark, sticky liquid classified as a hydrocarbon. This means, it is a compound containing mainly carbon and hydrogen.  Crude oil is highly flammable and can be burned to create energy.  Petroleum= Petra (Rock) + Oleum (Oil) (Latin) Jul 2016 2,972.33 -7.37 % Aug 2016 3,001.48 0.98 % Sep 2016 3,007.39 0.20 % Oct 2016 3,290.46 9.41 % Nov 2016 3,057.64 -7.08 % Dec 2016 3,572.16 16.83 % Jan 2017 3,652.61 2.25 % Feb 2017 3,647.70 -0.13 % Crude Oil (petroleum) Monthly Price - Indian Rupee per Barre
  • 10. Crude Oil Production  Crude Oil Production in India decreased to 736 BBL/D/1K in March from 746 BBL/D/1K in February of 2016.  Crude Oil Production in India averaged 694.49 BBL/D/1K from 1994 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 813 BBL/D/1K in November of 2010 and a record low of 526 BBL/D/1K in May of 1994
  • 11. India wholesale price index Indian wholesale prices rose 6.55 percent year-on-year in February of 2017, following a 5.25 percent gain in January while markets expected a 5.90 percent rise.  It was the eleventh straight month of increase and the highest since November 2013
  • 12. India’s oil Imports from different countries 18% 11% 22% 10% 34% 5% Saudi Arabia Iran Africa Western Hemisphere Other middle east Other 9% 8% 7% 36% 40% LPG Kerosene Petrol Diesel All other product Consumption of major petroleum products
  • 13. Factor affecting crude oil price  World oil demand  World oil supply  Weather conditions  Government policy  Political Conditions  Futures Market
  • 14. Subsidy • India’s subsidy bill zoomed to Rs 2.16 trillion or 2.5% of GDP . • It was due to two reason: High Crude Oil prices Fertilizer subsidies, primarily on account of imported non-urea fertilizers. • Government to save Rs 54,223 crore as oil subsidy slides 29% in 2015-16
  • 15. Inflation • Crude oil price move up or down, inflation follows in the same direction • Crude oil price increases, it’s directly affects the rate inflation. When the prices went to high of more than $100/barrel in 2008, the inflation also went up to 12.27% which was highest for India in previous two decade
  • 16. Cotton Effect of Cotton on various sectors Effect of Cotton on various sectors
  • 17. Cotton- A major Agri-CROP IN india • Area under cotton cultivation constitutes almost 9% of total area under agriculture in India • Cotton crop contributes about 14-16% to total agri- crop in India • India has the largest area under cotton (9 million hectares) • India presently produces 4.59 million tonnes cotton
  • 18. Effect Of Cotton Price • On apparel sector • On furniture • It’s used in coffee filters as well • Lastly, on stock prices as well