Mr. J.C.Laddha, CEO Copper Business (Hindalco Industries Limited) explains his views about the Copper Consumption in India and its likely growth in different segments
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CRU Chile April'19
1. Mr. J.C. Laddha
CEO (Copper Business)
Hindalco Industries Limited
World Copper Conference
Santiago, Chile
10th April 2019
WE MANUFACTURE MATERIALS THAT MAKE THE WORLD
GREENER STRONGER SMARTER
OUR PURPOSE AT HINDALCO
2. Aditya Birla Group A Conglomerate
34
Countries Employees
42 Nationalities
$ 44 bn
Revenues
120,000$ 50 bn
Market Cap
ABG has Presence in Manufacturing, Agriculture & Service Sectors
Above figures based on FY18 data – Aditya Birla Group
ULTRATECH GRASIM
NOVELIS
BIRLA CARBON
Manufacturing Services
VSF/
Chemicals
HINDALCO
Aluminium &
Copper
ABFRL IDEA
Cement Carbon Black
Apparel &
Retail
Telecom
Financial
Services
ABCAP
Retail
No.1 Manufacturer in India - Primary Aluminium, Primary Copper, Cement, Chlor Alkali, Branded Apparel, Telecom
Amongst Top 03 Globally - Cement, Viscose Staple Fibre (ex. China), Rolled Aluminium, Carbon Black
Top 05 in India : Supermarket chain & Fund Manager
4. 4
About Hindalco
Leading Global Industry Player
Hindalco Industries Ltd
Integrated Aluminium
Alumina
Primary Aluminium Metal
Primary Copper Metal
2.9 mt
1.3 mt
500 Kt
Aluminium Downstream
#1 Rolled Products Supplier Worldwide
Global Presence
Global leader in Aluminium
recycling
Shipments
Focused on premium
segments
3.1 mt
Revenue of USD 3.5 billionCopper Business
Located at Dahej,
Gujarat
Aleris Acquisition – New Feather in Hindalco Hat
Revenue
EBITDA Market Cap
$ 18 Billion
$ 2.3 Billion $ 7.5 Billion
Asset Base $ 19.2 Billion
India Operations Overseas Operations
Di-ammonium
Phosphate
400 Kt
Power
135 MW
Copper Rod
365* Kt
Smelting and refining
500 Kt
5. Huge Consumer Market
Substantial GDP
Phenomenal GDP Growth
Youngest Nation
Upward mobility
Skilled work force
Deregulation - From
offering “Red-tape” to
“Red-Carpet”
- 3.6 $ Trillion Market by 2025 (BCG)
- 20 $ Trillion GDP (PPP) by 2025
- Consistent Growth of 7-8%
- Average age of 29 Years by 2025
- 150 million more middle class by 2025
- 99% literacy rate by 2025
- 1000+ Archaic laws repealed by GoI
India An Unparalleled Opportunity
India – a Growth Engine for Global Economy
ECONOMICSOCIALPOLITICAL
6. 6
Advantage India Strong Economic Growth
Projections of a strong economic growth amongst global slowdown
5.6
6.6
7.2
7.6
6.6
7.2
7.7 7.8 8 8.1
7.8 7.7
7.3 6.9
6.7 6.5
6 6 5.9 5.8
2.2
1.5
2.4 2.4
1.6
2.3 2.5
1.9 1.7 1.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 P 2018 P 2019 P 2020 P 2021 P 2022 P
GDP Growth Rate Comparison
India China US
• P = Projected Source: International Monetary Fund
Highest GDP Growth
Oasis of
growth
amongst
slowing
global
outlook
Fastest
growing
major
economy
surpassing
China
Per Capita
Income
level is
expected
to triple
by 2025
7. 7
Key Reforms Government of India
Digital India
Smart Cities
Awaas Yozna
Skill India
GST
24X7 Power
Start up India
Make in India
Key
Reforms
Above Reforms have successfully made India Famous Destination for Foreign Investment.
- 02nd biggest textile exporter - 03rd largest Power generation Country
- 02nd biggest mobile phone manufacturer - 04th largest Automobile Manufacturer
- 02nd biggest steel manufacturer
9. 34.3 36.0
45.1
55.6
60.1
64.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 (P)
9
India Taking Serious Steps to Invite Foreign Investors
FDI Inflows in to India(Billion $)
Copper is expected to be one of the major
beneficiary
India is the only nation to have made it to
the list of top 10 improvers for the second
consecutive year in World Bank’s Ease of
Doing Business 2018 survey.
India 4th most attractive investment market
for global CEOs: PwC survey (Source- PwC,
Annual Global CEO Survey, Jan 2019)
Going Forward, FDI in India is likely to be Even Better
10. Overview Global Copper Industry
• Asia is the biggest refined copper consumer with 65% of total consumption.
• Asia (excl. China) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.5% till 2025. India is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% till 2025.
• Geographical skew in Mine production and refined copper consumption - highly logistic intensive.
10
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
China
Asia (excl. China)
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
Others
Regional Refined Copper Consumption
2025 2018
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Latin
America
Oceania &
Russia
Africa North
America
Middle
East
Asia (excl.
China)
Europe China
Copper Industry - Snapshot
Mine Refining Consumption
78% of World Mine
Production
82% of Refined
Copper Consumption
CAGR = 3.5%
CAGR = 0.9%
CAGR = 0.8%
CAGR = 1.8%
CAGR = 3.2%
CAGR = 4.0 %
CAGR = 5.9 %
CAGR = 2.7 %
Source: WoodMac Source: WoodMac
India = 9.2% CAGR
11. Overview Indian Copper Industry
143
2372 2515
Domestic Produce Import Total
Demand of Copper Concentrate FY17 (KT)
6%
o India imports ~94% of the raw material from far-distant countries like Chile, Indonesia, Peru.
o Available Indian copper concentrate comprises low grade of copper.
1,000
35
965
Refining Capacity Mining Capacity Gap
Refined Copper Capacity (KT/pa) v/s Copper
Mining Capacity (KT)
• Indian Copper Industry is ~Rs 50 -60 Thousand Cr employing 01 lac directly and many lacs indirectly
• Industry serves >1000 SMEs that form the backbone of Power and other Infrastructure Industries
• Industry has made India self sufficient in copper, which spurred the growth of downstream industries
11
Source: Ministry of Mines Source: Industry Source
94% 100%
12. Indian Copper Industry Demand & Supply Scenario
o India’s production of refined copper has been increasing but at a diminishing rate. As a result, India’s
capacity utilization rate is 80% against the global average of 86% in 2016.
o India’s demand for overall copper has risen rapidly over the years and is expected to rise further as a
result of various projects like Make in India, infrastructural investment etc.
According to Wood Mackenzie, India is expected to be the 6th largest copper market by 2020
12
Source: Production Figures HCL & ICSG and Consumption: Industry Source Source: Freedonia Group
Share in consumption of key user industries in India
766 795 796
843
700
560
665 653 642
450
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Refined Copper Market
Production Consumption
37%
25%
20%
13%
5%
Building & Construction Consumer Goods
Electrical & Electronics Industrial Equipment
Transportation
13. 13
Challenges for Indian Primary Producers
Indian
Primary
Copper
Producers
are at
Disadvanta
geous
Position –
No/Lean
availability
of
Domestic
Ore
Resource Securitization - Mining operations are very unpredictable & Situation is
aggravated by export restriction in some countries
Falling concentrate grades - Decline in grade has inflated processing cost
High Impurity levels - Impurity content in the concentrate is putting
operational / environmental challenges for smelters.
Environmental concerns - Demands to meet changing and stricter
environmental standards for Metal Industry.
High working capital with high cost of capital
14. 14
Challenges for Indian Copper Industry
Continuous Surge in Imports through FTAs
Inflow of Unregulated Scrap
Major Value Addition at mining Stage and Low in Later Stages
Threat of substitution with other cost effective materials
FTAs are
becoming
threat for
Indian
Domestic
Industry
Challenges can be overcome by Industry – Government Working Together
15. Supply Disruptions A Temporary Phase (Shutdown of One Smelter)
15
Source: Industry Input
Share of Imports
have gone up to
42% from earlier
28%
Imports have
gone up from
ASEAN, Japan
& Middle East
Closure of one
smelter caused
Supply
Disruption
Supply Situation expected to Improve from later half of this Calendar Year
64%
61%
65%
72%
60% 59% 58%
36%
39%
36%
28%
40% 41% 42%
FY18 Q1 FY18 Q2 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q4 FY19 Q1 FY19 Q2 FY19 Q3
% Share Domestic Players
% Share Domestic % Share Imports
Prior to Disruptions Post Supply Disruptions
16. 16
Key Sectors to Drive Copper Growth in India
Power Auto Construction RailwaysConsumer Durable
& Electronics
Solar Energy
Auto manufacturing
hub for Eastern
hemisphere; 3rd
largest auto market
globally
5th largest electricity
producer globally;
goal of 100% Rural
Electrification by 2018
2nd largest employer
in the country; goal of
100+ Smart Cities and
500 AMRUT cities
No. 1 passenger & 4th
largest freight carrier
globally; employs 1.3
million
Target generation of
100 GW by 2020;
increase current share
of 10% indigenisation
NPE target of zero net
imports by 2020;
manufacturing growth
at 27% from 2015-20
1 2 3 4 5 6
473 KT 156 KT 83 KT 36 KT 32 KT 3 KT
Source: Internal Estimation
Indian Copper Market is expected to be 1.5 Mn MT by FY26 (excluding demand from EVs)
Additional demand expected from key sectors – estimated over FY18 market as base