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Capital Mobility and Asset
Pricing
– Search Based Model
A three day Seminar by
Prof. Darrell Duffie
Princeton University (Oct 2007)
Excerpts - Valapet Badri
Tried to make this as non-academic as possible
Acknowledgement to Darrell Duffie and all the original researcher
Are there Common explanations for ...
FI MARKET - Cross-sectional Price Dispersion in
• Federal funds
• Muni Bonds
• Governtment Bonds
Equity Market - Price behavior during
• Fire sale of equities by Mutual fund
• Listing/Delisting effect on individual stock prices from
S&P 500
Search Theory
• Initial search theory was applied to labor market
- conditions when an unemployed would accept an
offer.(Stigler 1961, J Mcall 1970)
• Optimal search for a job depends on
Reservation wage (minimum acceptable wage)
Risk tolerance and Free flow Job Information
availability
Time to wait to take an offer
Greater variance of wages offered (similar to
price dispersion)
Capital Markets
• So called “Law of one price”
– Think in terms of price dispersion
– In Ideal Market (Job) the law of one price should be
attainable
• It is typically, one for ask and bid price
-----------------------------------------------
Applying these concepts to markets to
explain capital movement
-----------------------------------------------
Market Conditions
• Capital and risk are not perfectly mobile
• Imperfect counter party searches
Hard to locate assets
Trade through intermediation behavior
threaten execution delays, hence convey informational benefits
and market power to dealers and other providers of immediacy.
• Time signature of price responses to supply shocks
gives an indication of search friction
Causes opaqueness and execution delays
• Supply shifts Vs.demand shifts after a loss
Search based pricing
I. Capital Mobility
 Low premium markets to high premium markets
 Migration rate is considered Endogenous
 Limitations -
• intermediation costs
• search frictions
 Intensity of capital flows depends on the
premium differential
II. Study of Post catastrophe market conditions
 Search Friction, intensity of capital flow
determines behavior.
 Other factors
• Intermediation behavior - dealer
efficiency and spreads
• Variation in liquidity among multiple
assets
Search Models
• Several models proposed based on
– Probability of Agent interaction in large/Small sample
sets
– Behavior of agents while bargaining given an outside
option price
– Information available on the market and each other
motives
– Dealer efficiency and spreads
– “Boltzman cross- sectional “ distribution
Evidence in Equity Markets
• Equity Market - Price Behavior of Individual Stocks -
Large Markets
• Rebalancing of S&P 500 and price effect on the affected
stock (no longer exists due to hedge, arb opportunity –
countered the impact over time)
• Large "arbitrager" price impacts
• Fire sale of equity by a large mutual fund
Evidence in Fixed Income
Markets
• FI Markets Considerably lesser transactions compared
to Equity
- Inherently more susceptible to search friction
• Search and negotiation are critical
• Evidence found in Cross-sectional price dispersion
Federal funds
Muni Bonds
 Governtment Bonds
•Price execution improves with access to counter parties
and deteriorates with time pressure to trade.

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search_eq_FI_appln

  • 1. Capital Mobility and Asset Pricing – Search Based Model A three day Seminar by Prof. Darrell Duffie Princeton University (Oct 2007) Excerpts - Valapet Badri Tried to make this as non-academic as possible Acknowledgement to Darrell Duffie and all the original researcher
  • 2. Are there Common explanations for ... FI MARKET - Cross-sectional Price Dispersion in • Federal funds • Muni Bonds • Governtment Bonds Equity Market - Price behavior during • Fire sale of equities by Mutual fund • Listing/Delisting effect on individual stock prices from S&P 500
  • 3. Search Theory • Initial search theory was applied to labor market - conditions when an unemployed would accept an offer.(Stigler 1961, J Mcall 1970) • Optimal search for a job depends on Reservation wage (minimum acceptable wage) Risk tolerance and Free flow Job Information availability Time to wait to take an offer Greater variance of wages offered (similar to price dispersion)
  • 4. Capital Markets • So called “Law of one price” – Think in terms of price dispersion – In Ideal Market (Job) the law of one price should be attainable • It is typically, one for ask and bid price ----------------------------------------------- Applying these concepts to markets to explain capital movement -----------------------------------------------
  • 5. Market Conditions • Capital and risk are not perfectly mobile • Imperfect counter party searches Hard to locate assets Trade through intermediation behavior threaten execution delays, hence convey informational benefits and market power to dealers and other providers of immediacy. • Time signature of price responses to supply shocks gives an indication of search friction Causes opaqueness and execution delays • Supply shifts Vs.demand shifts after a loss
  • 6. Search based pricing I. Capital Mobility  Low premium markets to high premium markets  Migration rate is considered Endogenous  Limitations - • intermediation costs • search frictions  Intensity of capital flows depends on the premium differential
  • 7. II. Study of Post catastrophe market conditions  Search Friction, intensity of capital flow determines behavior.  Other factors • Intermediation behavior - dealer efficiency and spreads • Variation in liquidity among multiple assets
  • 8. Search Models • Several models proposed based on – Probability of Agent interaction in large/Small sample sets – Behavior of agents while bargaining given an outside option price – Information available on the market and each other motives – Dealer efficiency and spreads – “Boltzman cross- sectional “ distribution
  • 9. Evidence in Equity Markets • Equity Market - Price Behavior of Individual Stocks - Large Markets • Rebalancing of S&P 500 and price effect on the affected stock (no longer exists due to hedge, arb opportunity – countered the impact over time) • Large "arbitrager" price impacts • Fire sale of equity by a large mutual fund
  • 10. Evidence in Fixed Income Markets • FI Markets Considerably lesser transactions compared to Equity - Inherently more susceptible to search friction • Search and negotiation are critical • Evidence found in Cross-sectional price dispersion Federal funds Muni Bonds  Governtment Bonds •Price execution improves with access to counter parties and deteriorates with time pressure to trade.