1. Capital Mobility and Asset
Pricing
– Search Based Model
A three day Seminar by
Prof. Darrell Duffie
Princeton University (Oct 2007)
Excerpts - Valapet Badri
Tried to make this as non-academic as possible
Acknowledgement to Darrell Duffie and all the original researcher
2. Are there Common explanations for ...
FI MARKET - Cross-sectional Price Dispersion in
• Federal funds
• Muni Bonds
• Governtment Bonds
Equity Market - Price behavior during
• Fire sale of equities by Mutual fund
• Listing/Delisting effect on individual stock prices from
S&P 500
3. Search Theory
• Initial search theory was applied to labor market
- conditions when an unemployed would accept an
offer.(Stigler 1961, J Mcall 1970)
• Optimal search for a job depends on
Reservation wage (minimum acceptable wage)
Risk tolerance and Free flow Job Information
availability
Time to wait to take an offer
Greater variance of wages offered (similar to
price dispersion)
4. Capital Markets
• So called “Law of one price”
– Think in terms of price dispersion
– In Ideal Market (Job) the law of one price should be
attainable
• It is typically, one for ask and bid price
-----------------------------------------------
Applying these concepts to markets to
explain capital movement
-----------------------------------------------
5. Market Conditions
• Capital and risk are not perfectly mobile
• Imperfect counter party searches
Hard to locate assets
Trade through intermediation behavior
threaten execution delays, hence convey informational benefits
and market power to dealers and other providers of immediacy.
• Time signature of price responses to supply shocks
gives an indication of search friction
Causes opaqueness and execution delays
• Supply shifts Vs.demand shifts after a loss
6. Search based pricing
I. Capital Mobility
Low premium markets to high premium markets
Migration rate is considered Endogenous
Limitations -
• intermediation costs
• search frictions
Intensity of capital flows depends on the
premium differential
7. II. Study of Post catastrophe market conditions
Search Friction, intensity of capital flow
determines behavior.
Other factors
• Intermediation behavior - dealer
efficiency and spreads
• Variation in liquidity among multiple
assets
8. Search Models
• Several models proposed based on
– Probability of Agent interaction in large/Small sample
sets
– Behavior of agents while bargaining given an outside
option price
– Information available on the market and each other
motives
– Dealer efficiency and spreads
– “Boltzman cross- sectional “ distribution
9. Evidence in Equity Markets
• Equity Market - Price Behavior of Individual Stocks -
Large Markets
• Rebalancing of S&P 500 and price effect on the affected
stock (no longer exists due to hedge, arb opportunity –
countered the impact over time)
• Large "arbitrager" price impacts
• Fire sale of equity by a large mutual fund
10. Evidence in Fixed Income
Markets
• FI Markets Considerably lesser transactions compared
to Equity
- Inherently more susceptible to search friction
• Search and negotiation are critical
• Evidence found in Cross-sectional price dispersion
Federal funds
Muni Bonds
Governtment Bonds
•Price execution improves with access to counter parties
and deteriorates with time pressure to trade.