Our Analyst's views regarding investment options in the last quarter of 2015 considering the high possibility of a fed rate hike.

1. NICO Omer Jonckheere, SE, MM
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
FOR THE 4th
QUARTER
OF 2015

2. Will And CAN The Fed
Increase Interest
Rates For The First
Time Since 2006?

3. Artist’s Impression Of Current
Fed Policy

4. There are two reasons why pressure is mounting for US
Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen soon to start
raising the cost of credit after six years of easy-money
policies:
•Without higher rates, the central bank lacks its most
powerful traditional weapon for combating the next
recession – cheapening credit.
•Growing recognition that quantitative easing and zero
rates have inflated a bubble in asset prices and driven
related rising wealth inequality, yet failed to boost
economic growth.

5. 5 Reasons Why The Fed Won’t
Raise Interest Rates
1. An interest rate increase will make the dollar even
stronger than it already is.

6. 2. The Fed has been keeping their eye on inflation
(deflation), but they haven’t hit the magic 2% inflation
target since 2012.

7. 3. America is bankrupt and on borrowed time.

8. You can see from the chart above that despite the hiccup
in 2008-2009, the central planners are determined to
continue inflating the global ponzi debt scheme.

9. 4. Back in June, the IMF urged the Federal Reserve to
delay a rate increase because of a still-struggling US
economy and warned of “significant uncertainties as
to the future resilience of economic growth.”

10. 5. The US stock markets are ADDICTED TO FREE
MONEY so we may need a bigger balance sheet in
the future.

12. The War Against Deflation
“The Fed raising rates is out of the question.
What’s more likely is the return of QE, because
the Fed is terrified of the current position in
which deflation is taking over from the much
desired inflation. It would not surprise me to
see QE4 established as the Fed addresses the
deflationary trend.”
-- Richard Russell

13. What Should You Buy And
What Should You Sell?

14. Source: www.technicalindicatorindex.com

15. Given that US markets
have been driven to
giddying heights by the
combination of maxed
out margin debt and
stock buybacks, it is
clear that a crash of
perhaps
unprecedented
proportions is on the
cards.

16. Source: www.moneyweek.com

17. Source: www.stockcharts.com

18. Source: www.zerohedge.com h/t @NorthmanTrader

19. Source: www.moneyweek.com

22. We are going to need more QUANTITATIVE EASING…

23. Seasonals are poor as Aug., Sept. and Oct. are the worst-
performing months of the year.

24. The MSCI emerging markets Index has gone absolutely
nowhere for the last six years – a time frame during
which the S&P 500 Index has doubled.

25. U.S. equities are currently 70% more expensive than
emerging market equities.

28. It should come as no surprise that fund managers’
positioning on EM relative to DM is the most extreme
on record!

29. While relative to history, the space is under-owned – by a lot:

31. GOLD

32. Gold and silver are safe havens within periods of economic
uncertainty. As you know a global financial crash creates
economic uncertainty. It is time to get out of paper and into
tangible assets.

33. Currently the “Gold Optix” is at its second-lowest level in
history, undercutting even the low recorded in the year
2000, at the bottom of a 20-year bear market:

34. Source: www.clivemaund.com

36. The gold shares to gold ratio is now at the bottom side of
a 44-year down channel and it’s formed a several decade
falling wedge.

38. History Doesn’t Repeat Itself But
It Does Rhyme

39. Source: www.zerohedge.com
Gold bulls will cite the 1970s experience as to why
they are not worried about the current slump in
the price.

40. Gold Bullion “Extremely Rare”

41. In contrast to fiat currencies, gold supply has grown by
only 1.6% per year. This clearly underscores its relative
scarcity!

42. Is Oil’s Rebound Going To Last?
So has the oil price
bottomed out? Well, oil
has certainly fallen to the
point where things are
starting to get interesting.

44. Global inventories will pile up further and demand will
not cut into the surplus until late 2016 at the earliest.

45. Any realization that the Middle East is suddenly a far
more violent powder keg – one which may promptly
include the Saudis in any confrontation – could
result in an epic short squeeze.

46. This Is a Very High Probability
Location for a Base to Develop

47. Source: www.elliottwave.com

48. The RSI indicator is showing significant positive
divergence to the oil price which is supportive of
expectations for a trend higher.

49. SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – Bear market bottom low lies in the
zone $37 to $40, while trading range resistance lies in the zone
$60 to $63.

50. “The current action makes it look like 1998, and if that is the
case then we should be putting in the low here.”
--Tom Fitzpatrick, City Analyst

51. Timing the Coming Monster
Trade in Oil
“There’s blood in the streets in the energy sector right
now – and I love it!
If you believe that, as I do, to be successful in the
resource sector one must be a contrarian, now is the
time to become engaged.”
-- Marin Katusa, the Chief Energy Investment Strategist at Casey Research

52. How About The US Dollar?
Source: www.clivemaund.com

54. Source: www.rambus1.com

55. All eyes are on AUD as it is currently testing a very long-term
trend line:

58. As you can see on the chart below, there has been major CARRY
UNWIND:

60. Talk of more easing from the BoJ could weigh on the yen,
but it seems that until there is action, JPY sellers will
wait.

61. Is The Great(er) Depression Part
2 Underway?

62. Good luck and may God bless you!

63. Follow us @researchvaf and @researchvas on Twitter
You can read more of my writings on
http://nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id
THANK YOU