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Quality economics/ Basics of
   probability concepts
Quality economics
Quality economics
•  Montgomery (1985) indicates that there are
   several reasons why the cost of quality should be
   explicitly considered in an organization:
1) An increase in the cost of quality because of
   increases in technology use.
2) Increasing sophistication of end users in their
   consideration of lifecycle costs.
3) Internally, an increase of the use of quality cost
   data to make quality management-related
   decisions.
What are quality related costs?
• There is no universal consensus upon just what
  constitutes quality costs.
• Traditionally, costs of quality (COQ) have been
  considered as the cost of running a quality assurance
  system (complete or in development), with perhaps
  the inclusion of other costs, such as scrap and warranty
  costs.
• Quality costs are incurred in the design,
  implementation, maintenance and improvement of a
  quality system.
• Cost of quality (COQ) crosses inter- and
  intradepartmental boundaries, much as the process for
  developing and producing the product or services does
  in that organization.
What are quality related costs?
• No department or group is isolated and
  therefore is not immune to the constraints
  and opportunities of managing quality costs.
• Cost of quality is not confined to the internal
  environment of the organization, as the
  activities of, say, suppliers, etc., can affect the
  outcome of costs related to quality.
Classification of quality costs
   BS 4778-part 2 (British standard institution
    standards) classifies quality costs into the
    following:
1. Quality related costs: the expenditure incurred in
    defect prevention and appraisal activities plus the
    losses due to internal and external failure.
2. Prevention costs: the cost of any action taken to
    investigate, prevent or reduce defects and failures.
    Prevention costs can include the cost of planning,
    setting up and maintaining the quality concern
    system. They also include process design, product
    and service design and employee training schemes.
Classification of quality costs
3) Appraisal costs: the cost of assessing the quality
   achieved. Appraisal costs can include the cost of
   inspecting, testing, etc. carried out during and on
   completion of manufacture of product or service.
4) Failure costs-internal: the costs arising within the
   manufacturing processes of the organization of the
   failure to achieve specified quality. This can include
   the cost of scrap, rework and re-inspection.
5) Failure costs-external: the costs arising from outside
   the manufacturing organization of the failure to
   achieve quality specified. The term can include the
   costs of claims against warranty, replacement and
   consequential losses of customs and goodwill.
Importance of quality costs to the quality oriented
                      organization
• According to Dale and Plunkett(1991) the quality
  related costs commonly range from 5%-20% of
  company annual sales turnover.
• Generally 95% of the total quality related costs are
  expended on appraisal and failure elements.
• Failure costs must be regarded as avoidable and a
  reduction in such costs in usually attributable to such
  activities as eliminating causes of non conformance,
  which may lead to a reduction in appraisal costs.
  There is therefore a demonstrated need to balance
  future failure costs with appraisal costs.
• Managerial requirements suggests that what can be
  measured, can be managed.
Importance of quality costs to the quality
          oriented organization
• Robertson states that for the average UK
  organization the analysis of quality related costs are
  65% failure costs, 30% appraisal costs and 5%
  prevention costs, and further indicates that 4-20 %
  costs are attributed to quality related costs of total
  sales turnover.
• Garvin (1983) compares Japanese air-conditioning
  manufacturers with their American counterparts,
  focusing on warranty claims. Garvin indicates that
  Japanese company warranty claims are 0.6% of sales
  turnover, the best an American company could
  report 1.8% with the worst being 5.2%.
Quality costs – why measure them?
• Measuring quality costs will provide a means to
  quantify in management terms the effect that quality
  related activities have on organizational
  performance.
• It should influence employees and their attitudes
  towards the quality system, TQM and related
  continuous quality improvement schemes and
  practices.
• Measurement of quality costs will focus attention
  upon such areas as appraisal, prevention and failure
  and therefore provide opportunities for cost
  reductions.
Quality costs – why measure them?
• Performance across a wide range of quality related
  activities may need to be measured and this will
  provide a basis for internal cost comparisons
  between departments, processes, services and
  products.
• The measurement of quality costs can be clearly
  seen as a major step towards quality control, quality
  improvement and TQM.
Cost of quality versus cost of non quality

•  The cost of quality can be divided into three main
   aspects:
1. Failure costs
2. Appraisal costs
3. Prevention costs
from these only prevention can be regarded as a cost
   of quality, whereas the other two are in essence
   the cost of non-quality- inspection and rework of
   errors; rather than the principle of working to
   attain zero defects.
Cost of quality versus cost of non quality
• Finding shows that costs of non-quality in the service
  industry may be very high.
• The intangible nature of the service products means
  that the mistakes, which can never be undone, will
  have to be regarded as a cost factor.
• Client, who have been dissatisfied may not only
  never return, but may even influence other people
  into not using the defective services that the
  organization provide.
• What losses are incurred because of this process are
  very difficult to substantiate, many organizations
  have turned a blind eye to these losses.
Cost of quality versus cost of non quality

• However if they are truly committed to TQM, it will
  be recognized that one aspect able to reduce this
  cost of non quality is to ensure that the incidences
  are reduced to an absolute minimum.
• This can be accomplished through proper training of
  staff in the communications skills required to be able
  to asses clients, need better and to bring customer
  satisfaction to the optimum- whether internal and
  external customers.
Hidden costs of quality
•    Where errors in manufacturing produce waste, scrap or rework,
     then the hidden cost of quality or rather non quality can be seen
     as:
1.   The extra material needed to be supplied to accommodate this
     extra wastage.
2.   The extra manpower costs of labour and perhaps overtime.
3.   The opportunity cost of working on a part the second time round
     or, in the case of a scrapped item, on a completely new part.
4.   Possible delays in the ultimate shipment of the order.
5.   Increase risk of machine breakdown.
6.   Increase machine maintenance and repair costs.
7.   Reduced production capacity resulting from the need to
     overproduce in order to manufacture a given quantity of
     production items.
Lifecycle costs
• Juran and Gryna (1993) discuss the impact of the
  lifecycle costs theory.
• All products/markets/services have lifecycles.
• Fashion for example is a cycle.
• According to Juran and Gryna’s application is that the
  cost of the product/service should not just be limited
  to the cost at purchase. It should also include the
  cost of maintenance and the running cost of the
  product.
• Designing a product that lowers the overall lifecycle
  cost may mean that the initial cost may be higher
  than originally anticipated, but the consumer would
  benefit in the long run.
Lifecycle costs
• An example is that of laser printer.; advertised
  by Kyocera Electronics that the cost of their
  laser printer – over a three year period- was
  not the cheapest to purchase, but the
  cheapest to run over that time in costs/page
  printed.
The management of quality costs
• Survey conducted by Roche and Duncalfe and Dale
  suggested that only about one-third of the companies
  studied acutely collected quality cost data and that these
  findings indicated that less than 40% of companies collect
  and analyze quality costs data in systematic manner.
• The costs most measured were suggested to be those for
  cost of scrap, rework and warranty claims.
• Although the importance of not placing complete reliance
  upon the data from quality costing as a means of
  improving quality and of reducing costs, quality cost data
  should be used as some basis for the quantification of
  quality related activities, but not solely to be used as a
  weapon by top management to cut costs.
The management of quality costs
• Throwing vital resources into appraisal rather than
  prevention is not good practice, as many
  organizations have found to their folly.
• It is just that point that has made Japanese
  manufacturers more effective than their American
  and European counterparts during the 60’s and 70’s.
• American and Europeans funded appraisal rather
  than prevention; they were essentially targeting the
  symptom rather than the Japanese approach of
  targeting the core problem and developing an
  effective solution to it.
Basic probability concepts
Statistical tools in quality
• Statistics is the collection, organization,
  analysis, interpretation, and presentation of
  data. The body of knowledge of statistical
  methods is an essential tool of the modern
  approach to quality. Without it drawing
  conclusions about data becomes lucky at best
  and disastrous in some cases.
Concept of variation
• The concept of variation states that no two items will
  be perfectly identical. Variation is a fact of nature
  and a fact of industrial life. For example even
  identical twins vary slightly in height and weight at
  birth.
• The cans of tomato soup vary slightly from can to
  can; the time required to assign a seat at an airline
  check-in counter varies from passenger to passenger.
  To disregard the existence of variation (or to
  rationalize falsely that it is small) can lead to
  incorrect decisions on major problems. Statistics
  helps to analyze data properly and draw conclusions,
  taking into account the existence variation.
Concept of variation
• Data summarization can take several forms:
  tabular, graphical, and numerical. Sometimes
  one form will provide a useful, complete
  summarization. In other cases, two or even
  three forms are needed for complete clarity.
Tabular summarization of data: Frequency
                   distribution
• A frequency distribution is a tabulation of data arranged
  according to size. The raw data of the electrical resistance
  of 100 coils are given in the table.
   3.37   3.34   3.38   3.32   3.33   3.28   3.34   3.31   3.33   3.34

   3.29   3.36   3.30   3.31   3.33   3.24   3.34   3.36   3.39   3.34
   3.35   3.36   3.30   3.32   3.33   3.25   3.35   3.34   3.32   3.38
   3.32   3.37   3.34   3.38   3.36   3.27   3.36   3.31   3.33   3.30
   3.35   3.33   3.38   3.37   3.44   3.22   3.36   3.32   3.29   3.35
   3.38   3.39   3.34   3.32   3.30   3.29   3.36   3.40   3.32   3.33
   3.29   3.41   3.27   3.36   3.41   3.37   3.36   3.37   3.33   3.36
   3.31   3.33   3.35   3.34   3.34   3.34   3.31   3.36   3.37   3.35
   3.40   3.35   3.37   3.35   3.32   3.36   3.38   3.35   3.31   3.334
   3.35   3.36   3.39   3.31   3.31   3.30   3.35   3.33   3.35   3.31
Tabular summarization of data: Frequency
             distribution
  Resistance    Frequency      Cumulative
                               frequency
  3.415-3.445   1              1
  3.385-3.415   8              9
  3.355-3.385   27             36
  3.325-3.355   36             72
  3.295-3.325   23             95
  3.265-3.295   5              100
  total         100
Graphical summarization of data: the histogram
•   A histogram is a vertical bar chart of a frequency
    distribution. Figure shows the histogram for the electrical
    resistance data.
•   Note that as in the frequency distribution, the histogram
    highlights the center and amount of variation in the sample
    of data. The simplicity of construction and interpretation of
    the histogram makes it an effective tool in the elementary
    analysis of data.
•   Graphical methods are essential to effective data analysis
    and clear presentation of results.
•   The vividness of a picture when compared to the cold logic
    of numbers has practical benefits, e.g. identifying subtle
    relationships and presenting results in clear form.
    Experience dictates that the first step in data analysis is:
    Plot the data.
Histogram




 3.325-3.355
Quantitative methods of summarizing data:
              Numerical indices
• Data can also be summarized by computing 1) a
  measure of central tendency to indicate where most
  of the data are centered and 2) the measure of
  dispersion to indicate the amount of scatter in the
  data, often these two measures provide an adequate
  summary.
• The key measure of the central tendency is the
  arithmetic mean, or average. The definition of the
  average is X= ∑ x
                          n
Quantitative methods of summarizing data:
              Numerical indices
• Another measure of central tendency is the median-
  the median value when the data are arranged
  according to size. The median is useful for reducing
  the effects of extreme values.
• Two measures of dispersion are commonly
  calculated. When the amount of data is small (ten or
  fewer observation). The range is useful. The range is
  the difference between the maximum value and the
  minimum value in the data. As the range is based on
  only two values, it is not as useful when the number
  of observation is large.
Quantitative methods of summarizing data:
                 Numerical indices
• In general the standard deviation is the most useful
  measure of dispersion. Like the mean, definition of the
  standard deviation is a formula:

  s= √ ∑ (x- x)2
              n-1
• A problem that sometimes arises in the summarization
  of data is that one or more extreme values are far from
  the rest of the data. A simple but not necessarily correct
  solution is available. Drop such values. The reasoning is
  that a measurement error or some other unknown
  factor makes the values unrepresentative.
Probability distribution: General
• A distinction is made between a sample and a population.
  A sample is a limited number of items taken from a larger
  source. While a population is a large source of items from
  which the sample is taken.
• Measurements are made on the items. Many problems are
  solved by taking the measurement results from a sample
  and based on these results, making predictions about the
  defined population containing the sample.
• It is usually assumed that the sample is a random one i.e.
  each possible sample of n items has an equal chance of
  being selected (or the items are selected systematically
  from material that is itself random due to mixing during
  process)
Probability distribution: General
• A probability distribution function is a
  mathematical formula that relates the values
  of the characteristic with their probability of
  occurrence in the population.
• The collection of these probabilities is called a
  probability distribution. Some distribution and
  their functions are summarized as:
Probability distribution: General
• Normal distribution: applicable when there is a
  concentration of observations about the average and
  it is equally likely that observations will occur above
  and below the average. Variations in observations is
  usually the result of many small causes.
• Exponential distribution: applicable when it is likely
  that more observations will occur below the average
  than above.
• Weibull distribution: applicable in describing a wide
  variety of patterns in variation, including departures
  from the normal and exponential.
Probability distribution: General
• Poisson distribution: same as binomial but
  particularly applicable when there are many
  opportunities for occurrence of an event, but a low
  probability less than 0.10 on each trial.
• Binomial distribution: applicable in defining the
  probability of r occurrences in n trials of an event
  which has a constant probability of occurrence on
  each independent trial.
Probability distribution: General
• Distribution are two types:
1. Continuous (for variable data): when the
   characteristics being measured can take on any
   value ( subject to the fineness of the measuring
   process); its probability distribution is called a
   continuous probability distribution. For example ,
   the probability distribution for the resistance data
   is an example of a continuous probability
   distribution because the resistance could have any
   value, limited only by the fineness of the
   measuring instrument.
Probability distribution: General
• Discrete (for attribute data): when the
  characteristics being measured can take on
  only certain specific values (e.g. integers 0, 1,
  2, 3, 4, 5 etc.), its probability distribution is
  called a discrete probability distribution. The
  common discrete distributions are the Poisson
  and binomial.
Basic theorems of probability
• Probability is expressed as a number which lies
   between 1.0 ( certainly that an event will occur) and
   0.0 (impossibility of occurrence).
• A convenient definition of probability is one based
   on a frequency interpretation: if an event A can
   occur in s cases out of a total of n possible and
   equally probable cases, the probability that the event
   will occur is
 P (A)= s = number of successful cases
         n total number of possible cases
Basic theorems of probability
• Example: a lot consists of 100 parts. A single
  part is selected at random, and thus each of
  the 100 parts has an equal chance of being
  selected. Suppose that a lot contains a total of
  8 defective. Then the probability of drawing a
  single part that is defective is then 8/100 or
  0.08.
Basic theorems of probability
•    The following theorems are useful in solving
     problems:
     Theorem1: If P(A) is the probability that an event A
     will occur, then the probability that A will not occur
     is 1-P(A)
     Theorem2:If A and B are two events, then the
     probability that either A or B will occur is
    P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
     In case A and B are mutually exclusive then the
    P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B)
Basic theorems of probability
• Theorem3: if A and B are two events then the
   probability that events A and B occur together is:
   P(A and B)= P(A) x P(B|A)
Where P(B|A) means probability that B will occur
   assuming A has already occurred.
A special case in this theorem occurs when the two
   events are independent, i.e. when the occurrence of
   one event has no influence on the probability of the
   other event. If A and B are independent, then the
   probability of both A and B occurring is
 P(A and B)= P(A) x P(B)

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Recoverd ppt file(4)

  • 1. Quality economics/ Basics of probability concepts
  • 3. Quality economics • Montgomery (1985) indicates that there are several reasons why the cost of quality should be explicitly considered in an organization: 1) An increase in the cost of quality because of increases in technology use. 2) Increasing sophistication of end users in their consideration of lifecycle costs. 3) Internally, an increase of the use of quality cost data to make quality management-related decisions.
  • 4. What are quality related costs? • There is no universal consensus upon just what constitutes quality costs. • Traditionally, costs of quality (COQ) have been considered as the cost of running a quality assurance system (complete or in development), with perhaps the inclusion of other costs, such as scrap and warranty costs. • Quality costs are incurred in the design, implementation, maintenance and improvement of a quality system. • Cost of quality (COQ) crosses inter- and intradepartmental boundaries, much as the process for developing and producing the product or services does in that organization.
  • 5. What are quality related costs? • No department or group is isolated and therefore is not immune to the constraints and opportunities of managing quality costs. • Cost of quality is not confined to the internal environment of the organization, as the activities of, say, suppliers, etc., can affect the outcome of costs related to quality.
  • 6. Classification of quality costs BS 4778-part 2 (British standard institution standards) classifies quality costs into the following: 1. Quality related costs: the expenditure incurred in defect prevention and appraisal activities plus the losses due to internal and external failure. 2. Prevention costs: the cost of any action taken to investigate, prevent or reduce defects and failures. Prevention costs can include the cost of planning, setting up and maintaining the quality concern system. They also include process design, product and service design and employee training schemes.
  • 7. Classification of quality costs 3) Appraisal costs: the cost of assessing the quality achieved. Appraisal costs can include the cost of inspecting, testing, etc. carried out during and on completion of manufacture of product or service. 4) Failure costs-internal: the costs arising within the manufacturing processes of the organization of the failure to achieve specified quality. This can include the cost of scrap, rework and re-inspection. 5) Failure costs-external: the costs arising from outside the manufacturing organization of the failure to achieve quality specified. The term can include the costs of claims against warranty, replacement and consequential losses of customs and goodwill.
  • 8. Importance of quality costs to the quality oriented organization • According to Dale and Plunkett(1991) the quality related costs commonly range from 5%-20% of company annual sales turnover. • Generally 95% of the total quality related costs are expended on appraisal and failure elements. • Failure costs must be regarded as avoidable and a reduction in such costs in usually attributable to such activities as eliminating causes of non conformance, which may lead to a reduction in appraisal costs. There is therefore a demonstrated need to balance future failure costs with appraisal costs. • Managerial requirements suggests that what can be measured, can be managed.
  • 9. Importance of quality costs to the quality oriented organization • Robertson states that for the average UK organization the analysis of quality related costs are 65% failure costs, 30% appraisal costs and 5% prevention costs, and further indicates that 4-20 % costs are attributed to quality related costs of total sales turnover. • Garvin (1983) compares Japanese air-conditioning manufacturers with their American counterparts, focusing on warranty claims. Garvin indicates that Japanese company warranty claims are 0.6% of sales turnover, the best an American company could report 1.8% with the worst being 5.2%.
  • 10. Quality costs – why measure them? • Measuring quality costs will provide a means to quantify in management terms the effect that quality related activities have on organizational performance. • It should influence employees and their attitudes towards the quality system, TQM and related continuous quality improvement schemes and practices. • Measurement of quality costs will focus attention upon such areas as appraisal, prevention and failure and therefore provide opportunities for cost reductions.
  • 11. Quality costs – why measure them? • Performance across a wide range of quality related activities may need to be measured and this will provide a basis for internal cost comparisons between departments, processes, services and products. • The measurement of quality costs can be clearly seen as a major step towards quality control, quality improvement and TQM.
  • 12. Cost of quality versus cost of non quality • The cost of quality can be divided into three main aspects: 1. Failure costs 2. Appraisal costs 3. Prevention costs from these only prevention can be regarded as a cost of quality, whereas the other two are in essence the cost of non-quality- inspection and rework of errors; rather than the principle of working to attain zero defects.
  • 13. Cost of quality versus cost of non quality • Finding shows that costs of non-quality in the service industry may be very high. • The intangible nature of the service products means that the mistakes, which can never be undone, will have to be regarded as a cost factor. • Client, who have been dissatisfied may not only never return, but may even influence other people into not using the defective services that the organization provide. • What losses are incurred because of this process are very difficult to substantiate, many organizations have turned a blind eye to these losses.
  • 14. Cost of quality versus cost of non quality • However if they are truly committed to TQM, it will be recognized that one aspect able to reduce this cost of non quality is to ensure that the incidences are reduced to an absolute minimum. • This can be accomplished through proper training of staff in the communications skills required to be able to asses clients, need better and to bring customer satisfaction to the optimum- whether internal and external customers.
  • 15. Hidden costs of quality • Where errors in manufacturing produce waste, scrap or rework, then the hidden cost of quality or rather non quality can be seen as: 1. The extra material needed to be supplied to accommodate this extra wastage. 2. The extra manpower costs of labour and perhaps overtime. 3. The opportunity cost of working on a part the second time round or, in the case of a scrapped item, on a completely new part. 4. Possible delays in the ultimate shipment of the order. 5. Increase risk of machine breakdown. 6. Increase machine maintenance and repair costs. 7. Reduced production capacity resulting from the need to overproduce in order to manufacture a given quantity of production items.
  • 16. Lifecycle costs • Juran and Gryna (1993) discuss the impact of the lifecycle costs theory. • All products/markets/services have lifecycles. • Fashion for example is a cycle. • According to Juran and Gryna’s application is that the cost of the product/service should not just be limited to the cost at purchase. It should also include the cost of maintenance and the running cost of the product. • Designing a product that lowers the overall lifecycle cost may mean that the initial cost may be higher than originally anticipated, but the consumer would benefit in the long run.
  • 17. Lifecycle costs • An example is that of laser printer.; advertised by Kyocera Electronics that the cost of their laser printer – over a three year period- was not the cheapest to purchase, but the cheapest to run over that time in costs/page printed.
  • 18. The management of quality costs • Survey conducted by Roche and Duncalfe and Dale suggested that only about one-third of the companies studied acutely collected quality cost data and that these findings indicated that less than 40% of companies collect and analyze quality costs data in systematic manner. • The costs most measured were suggested to be those for cost of scrap, rework and warranty claims. • Although the importance of not placing complete reliance upon the data from quality costing as a means of improving quality and of reducing costs, quality cost data should be used as some basis for the quantification of quality related activities, but not solely to be used as a weapon by top management to cut costs.
  • 19. The management of quality costs • Throwing vital resources into appraisal rather than prevention is not good practice, as many organizations have found to their folly. • It is just that point that has made Japanese manufacturers more effective than their American and European counterparts during the 60’s and 70’s. • American and Europeans funded appraisal rather than prevention; they were essentially targeting the symptom rather than the Japanese approach of targeting the core problem and developing an effective solution to it.
  • 21. Statistical tools in quality • Statistics is the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. The body of knowledge of statistical methods is an essential tool of the modern approach to quality. Without it drawing conclusions about data becomes lucky at best and disastrous in some cases.
  • 22. Concept of variation • The concept of variation states that no two items will be perfectly identical. Variation is a fact of nature and a fact of industrial life. For example even identical twins vary slightly in height and weight at birth. • The cans of tomato soup vary slightly from can to can; the time required to assign a seat at an airline check-in counter varies from passenger to passenger. To disregard the existence of variation (or to rationalize falsely that it is small) can lead to incorrect decisions on major problems. Statistics helps to analyze data properly and draw conclusions, taking into account the existence variation.
  • 23. Concept of variation • Data summarization can take several forms: tabular, graphical, and numerical. Sometimes one form will provide a useful, complete summarization. In other cases, two or even three forms are needed for complete clarity.
  • 24. Tabular summarization of data: Frequency distribution • A frequency distribution is a tabulation of data arranged according to size. The raw data of the electrical resistance of 100 coils are given in the table. 3.37 3.34 3.38 3.32 3.33 3.28 3.34 3.31 3.33 3.34 3.29 3.36 3.30 3.31 3.33 3.24 3.34 3.36 3.39 3.34 3.35 3.36 3.30 3.32 3.33 3.25 3.35 3.34 3.32 3.38 3.32 3.37 3.34 3.38 3.36 3.27 3.36 3.31 3.33 3.30 3.35 3.33 3.38 3.37 3.44 3.22 3.36 3.32 3.29 3.35 3.38 3.39 3.34 3.32 3.30 3.29 3.36 3.40 3.32 3.33 3.29 3.41 3.27 3.36 3.41 3.37 3.36 3.37 3.33 3.36 3.31 3.33 3.35 3.34 3.34 3.34 3.31 3.36 3.37 3.35 3.40 3.35 3.37 3.35 3.32 3.36 3.38 3.35 3.31 3.334 3.35 3.36 3.39 3.31 3.31 3.30 3.35 3.33 3.35 3.31
  • 25. Tabular summarization of data: Frequency distribution Resistance Frequency Cumulative frequency 3.415-3.445 1 1 3.385-3.415 8 9 3.355-3.385 27 36 3.325-3.355 36 72 3.295-3.325 23 95 3.265-3.295 5 100 total 100
  • 26. Graphical summarization of data: the histogram • A histogram is a vertical bar chart of a frequency distribution. Figure shows the histogram for the electrical resistance data. • Note that as in the frequency distribution, the histogram highlights the center and amount of variation in the sample of data. The simplicity of construction and interpretation of the histogram makes it an effective tool in the elementary analysis of data. • Graphical methods are essential to effective data analysis and clear presentation of results. • The vividness of a picture when compared to the cold logic of numbers has practical benefits, e.g. identifying subtle relationships and presenting results in clear form. Experience dictates that the first step in data analysis is: Plot the data.
  • 28. Quantitative methods of summarizing data: Numerical indices • Data can also be summarized by computing 1) a measure of central tendency to indicate where most of the data are centered and 2) the measure of dispersion to indicate the amount of scatter in the data, often these two measures provide an adequate summary. • The key measure of the central tendency is the arithmetic mean, or average. The definition of the average is X= ∑ x n
  • 29. Quantitative methods of summarizing data: Numerical indices • Another measure of central tendency is the median- the median value when the data are arranged according to size. The median is useful for reducing the effects of extreme values. • Two measures of dispersion are commonly calculated. When the amount of data is small (ten or fewer observation). The range is useful. The range is the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value in the data. As the range is based on only two values, it is not as useful when the number of observation is large.
  • 30. Quantitative methods of summarizing data: Numerical indices • In general the standard deviation is the most useful measure of dispersion. Like the mean, definition of the standard deviation is a formula: s= √ ∑ (x- x)2 n-1 • A problem that sometimes arises in the summarization of data is that one or more extreme values are far from the rest of the data. A simple but not necessarily correct solution is available. Drop such values. The reasoning is that a measurement error or some other unknown factor makes the values unrepresentative.
  • 31. Probability distribution: General • A distinction is made between a sample and a population. A sample is a limited number of items taken from a larger source. While a population is a large source of items from which the sample is taken. • Measurements are made on the items. Many problems are solved by taking the measurement results from a sample and based on these results, making predictions about the defined population containing the sample. • It is usually assumed that the sample is a random one i.e. each possible sample of n items has an equal chance of being selected (or the items are selected systematically from material that is itself random due to mixing during process)
  • 32. Probability distribution: General • A probability distribution function is a mathematical formula that relates the values of the characteristic with their probability of occurrence in the population. • The collection of these probabilities is called a probability distribution. Some distribution and their functions are summarized as:
  • 33. Probability distribution: General • Normal distribution: applicable when there is a concentration of observations about the average and it is equally likely that observations will occur above and below the average. Variations in observations is usually the result of many small causes. • Exponential distribution: applicable when it is likely that more observations will occur below the average than above. • Weibull distribution: applicable in describing a wide variety of patterns in variation, including departures from the normal and exponential.
  • 34. Probability distribution: General • Poisson distribution: same as binomial but particularly applicable when there are many opportunities for occurrence of an event, but a low probability less than 0.10 on each trial. • Binomial distribution: applicable in defining the probability of r occurrences in n trials of an event which has a constant probability of occurrence on each independent trial.
  • 35. Probability distribution: General • Distribution are two types: 1. Continuous (for variable data): when the characteristics being measured can take on any value ( subject to the fineness of the measuring process); its probability distribution is called a continuous probability distribution. For example , the probability distribution for the resistance data is an example of a continuous probability distribution because the resistance could have any value, limited only by the fineness of the measuring instrument.
  • 36. Probability distribution: General • Discrete (for attribute data): when the characteristics being measured can take on only certain specific values (e.g. integers 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 etc.), its probability distribution is called a discrete probability distribution. The common discrete distributions are the Poisson and binomial.
  • 37. Basic theorems of probability • Probability is expressed as a number which lies between 1.0 ( certainly that an event will occur) and 0.0 (impossibility of occurrence). • A convenient definition of probability is one based on a frequency interpretation: if an event A can occur in s cases out of a total of n possible and equally probable cases, the probability that the event will occur is P (A)= s = number of successful cases n total number of possible cases
  • 38. Basic theorems of probability • Example: a lot consists of 100 parts. A single part is selected at random, and thus each of the 100 parts has an equal chance of being selected. Suppose that a lot contains a total of 8 defective. Then the probability of drawing a single part that is defective is then 8/100 or 0.08.
  • 39. Basic theorems of probability • The following theorems are useful in solving problems: Theorem1: If P(A) is the probability that an event A will occur, then the probability that A will not occur is 1-P(A) Theorem2:If A and B are two events, then the probability that either A or B will occur is P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) In case A and B are mutually exclusive then the P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B)
  • 40. Basic theorems of probability • Theorem3: if A and B are two events then the probability that events A and B occur together is: P(A and B)= P(A) x P(B|A) Where P(B|A) means probability that B will occur assuming A has already occurred. A special case in this theorem occurs when the two events are independent, i.e. when the occurrence of one event has no influence on the probability of the other event. If A and B are independent, then the probability of both A and B occurring is P(A and B)= P(A) x P(B)