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THE WORKS Chapter 7 Technology Tsunami
1. Tom Peters’Tom Peters’
EXCELLENCEEXCELLENCE !!
““THE WORKS”THE WORKS”
A Half-Century’s Reflections/1966-2016A Half-Century’s Reflections/1966-2016
ChapterChapter SEVENSEVEN::
TECH TSUNAMI/TECH TSUNAMI/
SOFTWARE IS EATINGSOFTWARE IS EATING
THE WORLDTHE WORLD
01 January 201601 January 2016
(10+ years of presentation slides at(10+ years of presentation slides at tompeters.comtompeters.com))
2. Contents/“The Works”/1966-2016/EXCELLENCEContents/“The Works”/1966-2016/EXCELLENCE !!
ChapterChapter ONEONE:: Execution/The “All-Important Last 95%”Execution/The “All-Important Last 95%”
ChapterChapter TWOTWO:: EXCELLENCE (Or Why Bother at All?)EXCELLENCE (Or Why Bother at All?)
ChapterChapter THREETHREE:: The “Strategy First” MythThe “Strategy First” Myth
ChapterChapter FOURFOUR:: (REALLY) First Things Before First Things(REALLY) First Things Before First Things
ChapterChapter FIVEFIVE:: 34 BFOs/Blinding Flashes of the Obvious34 BFOs/Blinding Flashes of the Obvious
ChapterChapter SIXSIX:: Putting People (REALLY!) FirstPutting People (REALLY!) First
ChapterChapter SEVENSEVEN:: Tech Tsunami/Software Is Eating the World++Tech Tsunami/Software Is Eating the World++
ChapterChapter EIGHTEIGHT:: People First/A Moral Imperative Circa 2016People First/A Moral Imperative Circa 2016
ChapterChapter NINENINE:: Giants Stink/Age of SMEs/Be The Best,Giants Stink/Age of SMEs/Be The Best,
It’s the Only Market That’s Not CrowdedIt’s the Only Market That’s Not Crowded
ChapterChapter TENTEN:: Innovate Or Die/W.T.T.M.S.W./Innovate Or Die/W.T.T.M.S.W./
Whoever Tries The Most Stuff Wins++Whoever Tries The Most Stuff Wins++
ChapterChapter ELEVENELEVEN:: Nine Value-added StrategiesNine Value-added Strategies
ChapterChapter TWELVETWELVE:: Value Added/1Value Added/1STST
Among Equals/DESIGNAmong Equals/DESIGN
MINDEDNESSMINDEDNESS
ChapterChapter THIRTEENTHIRTEEN:: The “PSF”/Professional Service Firm “Model”The “PSF”/Professional Service Firm “Model”
as Exemplar/“Cure All”as Exemplar/“Cure All”
ChapterChapter FOURTEENFOURTEEN:: You/Me/The “Age of ‘BRAND YOU’/‘Me Inc.’”You/Me/The “Age of ‘BRAND YOU’/‘Me Inc.’”
ChapterChapter FIFTEENFIFTEEN:: Women Are Market #1 For Everything/Women Are Market #1 For Everything/
Women Are the Most Effective LeadersWomen Are the Most Effective Leaders
ChapterChapter SIXTEENSIXTEEN:: Leadership/46 Scattershot TacticsLeadership/46 Scattershot Tactics
ChapterChapter SEVENTEENSEVENTEEN:: Avoid Moderation!/PursueAvoid Moderation!/Pursue
““Insanely Great”/Just Say “NO!” to NormalInsanely Great”/Just Say “NO!” to Normal
Appendix:Appendix: Library of Best QuotesLibrary of Best Quotes
3. This—circa January 2016—is my best shot. It took 50 years to write!This—circa January 2016—is my best shot. It took 50 years to write!
(From 1966, Vietnam, U.S. Navy ensign, combat engineer/Navy Seabees—(From 1966, Vietnam, U.S. Navy ensign, combat engineer/Navy Seabees—
my 1st “management” job—to today, 2016.) It is …my 1st “management” job—to today, 2016.) It is … “THE WORKS.”“THE WORKS.” THETHE
WORKS is presented in PowerPoint format—but it includes 50,000++WORKS is presented in PowerPoint format—but it includes 50,000++
words of annotation, the equivalent of a 250-page book.words of annotation, the equivalent of a 250-page book.
The times are nutty—and getting nuttier at an exponential pace. I haveThe times are nutty—and getting nuttier at an exponential pace. I have
taken into account as best I can (there really are no “experts”) thetaken into account as best I can (there really are no “experts”) the
current context. But I have given equal attention to more or less eternalcurrent context. But I have given equal attention to more or less eternal
(i.e., human) verities that will continue to drive organizational(i.e., human) verities that will continue to drive organizational
performance and a quest for EXCELLENCE for the next several years—andperformance and a quest for EXCELLENCE for the next several years—and
perhaps beyond. (Maybe this bifurcation results from my odd adult lifeperhaps beyond. (Maybe this bifurcation results from my odd adult life
circumstances: 30 years in Silicon Valley, 20 years in Vermont.)circumstances: 30 years in Silicon Valley, 20 years in Vermont.)
Enjoy.Enjoy.
Steal.Steal.
P-L-E-A-S-E try something, better yet several somethings.* ** *** ****P-L-E-A-S-E try something, better yet several somethings.* ** *** ****
**********
*Make no mistake …*Make no mistake … THISTHIS ISIS AA 1717--CHAPTERCHAPTER BOOKBOOK … which happens to… which happens to
be in PowerPoint format; I invite you to join me in this unfinished—half century to datebe in PowerPoint format; I invite you to join me in this unfinished—half century to date
—journey.—journey.
**My “Life Mantra #1”: WTTMSW/Whoever Tries The Most Stuff Wins.**My “Life Mantra #1”: WTTMSW/Whoever Tries The Most Stuff Wins.
***I am quite taken by N.N. Taleb’s term “antifragile” (it’s the title of his***I am quite taken by N.N. Taleb’s term “antifragile” (it’s the title of his
most recent book). The point is not “resilience” in the face of change;most recent book). The point is not “resilience” in the face of change;
that’s reactive. Instead the idea is proactive—literally “getting off ” on the madnessthat’s reactive. Instead the idea is proactive—literally “getting off ” on the madness
per se; perhaps I somewhat anticipated this with my 1987 book,per se; perhaps I somewhat anticipated this with my 1987 book, Thriving on ChaosThriving on Chaos ..
****Re “new stuff,” this presentation has benefited immensely from Social Media—e.g.,****Re “new stuff,” this presentation has benefited immensely from Social Media—e.g.,
I have learned a great deal from my 125K+ twitter followers; that is, some fraction ofI have learned a great deal from my 125K+ twitter followers; that is, some fraction of
this material is “crowdsourced.”this material is “crowdsourced.”
********** I am not interested in providing a “good presentation.” I amI am not interested in providing a “good presentation.” I am
interested in spurring practical action. Otherwise, why waste your time—interested in spurring practical action. Otherwise, why waste your time—
or mine?or mine?
4. EpigraphsEpigraphs
““Business has to give people enriching, rewarding lives …Business has to give people enriching, rewarding lives …
or it's simply not worth doing.”or it's simply not worth doing.” —Richard Branson—Richard Branson
““Your customers will never be any happierYour customers will never be any happier
than your employees.”than your employees.” —John DiJulius—John DiJulius
““We have a strategic plan. It’s called ‘doing things.’ ”We have a strategic plan. It’s called ‘doing things.’ ” —Herb Kelleher—Herb Kelleher
““You miss 100% of the shots you never take.”You miss 100% of the shots you never take.” —Wayne—Wayne GretzkyGretzky
““Ready. Fire. Aim.”Ready. Fire. Aim.” —Ross Perot—Ross Perot
““ExecutionExecution isis strategy.”strategy.” —Fred Malek—Fred Malek
““Avoid moderation.”Avoid moderation.” —Kevin Roberts—Kevin Roberts
““I’m not comfortable unless I’m uncomfortable.”I’m not comfortable unless I’m uncomfortable.” —Jay Chiat—Jay Chiat
““It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.”It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.”
——John DiJulius on social mediaJohn DiJulius on social media
““Courtesies of a small and trivial character are the ones whichCourtesies of a small and trivial character are the ones which
strike deepest in the grateful and appreciating heart.”strike deepest in the grateful and appreciating heart.” —Henry Clay—Henry Clay
““You know a design is cool when you want to lick it.”You know a design is cool when you want to lick it.” —Steve Jobs—Steve Jobs
““This will be the women’s century.”This will be the women’s century.” —Dilma Rousseff—Dilma Rousseff
““Be the best. It’s the only market that’s not crowded.”Be the best. It’s the only market that’s not crowded.” —George Whalin—George Whalin
5. First Principles. Guiding Stars. Minimums.First Principles. Guiding Stars. Minimums.
**EXECUTION! The “Last 99%.”EXECUTION! The “Last 99%.”
GET IT (Whatever) DONE.GET IT (Whatever) DONE.
**EXCELLENCE. Always. PERIOD.EXCELLENCE. Always. PERIOD.
**People REALLY First! Moral Obligation #1.People REALLY First! Moral Obligation #1.
**EXPONENTIAL Tech Tsunami.EXPONENTIAL Tech Tsunami.
GET OFF ON CONTINUOUS UPHEAVALS!GET OFF ON CONTINUOUS UPHEAVALS!
**Innovate or DIE!Innovate or DIE!
WTTMSW/Whoever Tries The Most Stuff Wins!WTTMSW/Whoever Tries The Most Stuff Wins!
**Women Buy (EVERYTHING)!Women Buy (EVERYTHING)!
Women Are the Best Leaders! Women RULE!Women Are the Best Leaders! Women RULE!
**Oldies Have (All of) the Market Power!Oldies Have (All of) the Market Power!
**DESIGN Matters! EVERYWHERE!DESIGN Matters! EVERYWHERE!
**Maximize TGRs!/Things Gone RIGHT!Maximize TGRs!/Things Gone RIGHT!
**SMEs, Age of/“Be the Best,SMEs, Age of/“Be the Best,
It’s the Only Market That’s Not Crowded”It’s the Only Market That’s Not Crowded”
**Moderation KILLS!Moderation KILLS!
6. NEW WORLD ORDERNEW WORLD ORDER ??!!
0810/2011:0810/2011:
Apple > ExxonApple > Exxon **
0724/2015:0724/2015:
Amazon > WalmartAmazon > Walmart ****
*Market capitalization; Apple became*Market capitalization; Apple became #1#1 in the world.in the world.
**Market capitalization; Walmart is a “Fortune**Market capitalization; Walmart is a “Fortune 11””
company—company—
the biggest in the world by sales.the biggest in the world by sales.
8. Contents/“The Works”/1966-2016/EXCELLENCEContents/“The Works”/1966-2016/EXCELLENCE !!
ChapterChapter ONEONE: Execution/The “All-Important Last 95%”: Execution/The “All-Important Last 95%”
ChapterChapter TWOTWO: EXCELLENCE (Or Why Bother at All?): EXCELLENCE (Or Why Bother at All?)
ChapterChapter THREETHREE: The “Strategy First” Myth: The “Strategy First” Myth
ChapterChapter FOURFOUR: (REALLY) First Things Before First Things: (REALLY) First Things Before First Things
ChapterChapter FIVEFIVE: 34 BFOs/Blinding Flashes of the Obvious: 34 BFOs/Blinding Flashes of the Obvious
ChapterChapter SIXSIX: Putting People (REALLY!) First: Putting People (REALLY!) First
ChapterChapter SEVENSEVEN: Tech Tsunami/Software Is Eating the World++: Tech Tsunami/Software Is Eating the World++
ChapterChapter EIGHTEIGHT: People First/A Moral Imperative Circa 2016: People First/A Moral Imperative Circa 2016
ChapterChapter NINENINE: Giants Stink/Age of SMEs/Be The Best,: Giants Stink/Age of SMEs/Be The Best,
It’s the Only Market That’s Not CrowdedIt’s the Only Market That’s Not Crowded
ChapterChapter TENTEN: Innovate Or Die/W.T.T.M.S.W./: Innovate Or Die/W.T.T.M.S.W./
Whoever Tries The Most Stuff Wins++Whoever Tries The Most Stuff Wins++
ChapterChapter ELEVENELEVEN: Nine Value-added Strategies: Nine Value-added Strategies
ChapterChapter TWELVETWELVE: Value Added/1: Value Added/1STST
Among Equals/DESIGNAmong Equals/DESIGN
MINDEDNESSMINDEDNESS
ChapterChapter THIRTEENTHIRTEEN: The “PSF”/Professional Service Firm “Model”: The “PSF”/Professional Service Firm “Model”
as Exemplar/“Cure All”as Exemplar/“Cure All”
ChapterChapter FOURTEENFOURTEEN: You/Me/The “Age of ‘BRAND YOU’/‘Me Inc.’”: You/Me/The “Age of ‘BRAND YOU’/‘Me Inc.’”
ChapterChapter FIFTEENFIFTEEN: Women Are Market #1 For Everything/: Women Are Market #1 For Everything/
Women Are the Most Effective LeadersWomen Are the Most Effective Leaders
ChapterChapter SIXTEENSIXTEEN: Leadership/46 Scattershot Tactics: Leadership/46 Scattershot Tactics
ChapterChapter SEVENTEENSEVENTEEN: Avoid Moderation!/Pursue: Avoid Moderation!/Pursue
““Insanely Great”/Just Say “NO!” to NormalInsanely Great”/Just Say “NO!” to Normal
Appendix: Library of Best QuotesAppendix: Library of Best Quotes
10. I am hardly expert enough to give aI am hardly expert enough to give a
tour of tomorrow—though I havetour of tomorrow—though I have
devoted a large share of the lastdevoted a large share of the last
three years to “reading (andthree years to “reading (and
listening) my way in” on theselistening) my way in” on these
issues.issues.
So what follows is directionally onSo what follows is directionally on
the money, I’d judge—but hardlythe money, I’d judge—but hardly
the last word, or even the next tothe last word, or even the next to
the next to last word.the next to last word.
11. NEW WORLD ORDERNEW WORLD ORDER
0810/2011:0810/2011:
Apple > ExxonApple > Exxon
0724/2015:0724/2015:
Amazon >Amazon >
WalmartWalmart
12. In August 2011, Apple’s marketIn August 2011, Apple’s market
capitalization passed Exxon’s—capitalization passed Exxon’s—
AppleApple
became the most valuable companybecame the most valuable company
on earth. In July 2015, ecommerceon earth. In July 2015, ecommerce
showed its strength whenshowed its strength when
Amazon’s market capitalizationAmazon’s market capitalization
passed Walmart’s—Walmart is apassed Walmart’s—Walmart is a
“Fortune ONE” company, the“Fortune ONE” company, the
biggest of them all as measured bybiggest of them all as measured by
revenue. (These two markers couldrevenue. (These two markers could
change—but the deed has beenchange—but the deed has been
done. It is, in fact, literally a newdone. It is, in fact, literally a new
world order.)world order.)
14. ““The greatestThe greatest
shortcoming of theshortcoming of the
human race is ourhuman race is our
inability toinability to
understand theunderstand the
exponentialexponential
function.”function.” —Albert A. Bartlett—Albert A. Bartlett
15. Hmmmm …Hmmmm …
I can buy this—despite theI can buy this—despite the
extremeness of theextremeness of the
assertion/“greatest shortcoming ofassertion/“greatest shortcoming of
the human race.”the human race.”
It truly caused me to think deeplyIt truly caused me to think deeply
about our present context inabout our present context in
which, it is said, thewhich, it is said, the
accelerationacceleration of change isof change is
unprecedented.unprecedented.
(The late Professor Bartlett was, among other(The late Professor Bartlett was, among other
things, one of our leading nuclear physicists.)things, one of our leading nuclear physicists.)
17. We typically think of China inWe typically think of China in
terms of low-cost labor. China’sterms of low-cost labor. China’s
labor costs are soaring—and, likelabor costs are soaring—and, like
the rest of us, the Chinese arethe rest of us, the Chinese are
stepping up their game, asstepping up their game, as
indicated by this case of aindicated by this case of a
headlong plunge into robotics.headlong plunge into robotics.
And notAnd not
pussyfooting!pussyfooting!
18. ““SinceSince 19961996, manufacturing employment, manufacturing employment
in China itself has actuallyin China itself has actually
fallenfallen
by an estimatedby an estimated 2525
ppercentercent.. That’s overThat’s over
30,000,00030,000,000
fewerfewer Chinese workers in thatChinese workers in that
sector, even while output soared by 70sector, even while output soared by 70
percent.percent. It’s not that American workers are being replacedIt’s not that American workers are being replaced
by Chinese workers. It’s that both Americanby Chinese workers. It’s that both American andand ChineseChinese
workers are being made more efficient [replaced] byworkers are being made more efficient [replaced] by
automation.”automation.” —Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee,—Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee,
19. I read this in disbelief.I read this in disbelief.
But I do believe it.But I do believe it.
And what testimony it is to theAnd what testimony it is to the
ubiquity of the automationubiquity of the automation
tsunami.tsunami.
20. ““Automation has become soAutomation has become so
sophisticated that on a typicalsophisticated that on a typical
passenger flight, a human pilotpassenger flight, a human pilot
holds the controls for a grandholds the controls for a grand
total of …total of … 33
minutesminutes..
[Pilots] have become, it’s not[Pilots] have become, it’s not
much of an exaggeration to say,much of an exaggeration to say,
computer operators.”computer operators.”
21. Pilot as computer operator—andPilot as computer operator—and
emergency skills are atrophying.emergency skills are atrophying.
(That is fact, not assertion—as(That is fact, not assertion—as
witnessed, alas, by a series ofwitnessed, alas, by a series of
accidents.)accidents.)
22. Robot Wars!Robot Wars!
“The combination of“The combination of
new market rules andnew market rules and
new technology wasnew technology was
turningturning
the stock market into,the stock market into,
in effect,in effect, aa warwar
of robotsof robots.”.” —Michael—Michael
Lewis,Lewis,
“Goldman’s Geek Tragedy,”“Goldman’s Geek Tragedy,” Vanity FairVanity Fair, 09.13, 09.13
24. ““Meet YourMeet Your
Next Surgeon:Next Surgeon:
Dr. Robot”Dr. Robot”
Source: Feature/Source: Feature/ FortuneFortune/15 JAN 2013/on Intuitive/15 JAN 2013/on Intuitive
Surgical’sSurgical’s
da Vincida Vinci /multiple bypass heart-/multiple bypass heart-
surgery robotsurgery robot
25. Ditto surgeons.Ditto surgeons.
Not “the future.”Not “the future.”
NOW.NOW.
(At a social event I ran into a(At a social event I ran into a
surgical department head at a “Topsurgical department head at a “Top
10” U.S.A. hospital. He lamented10” U.S.A. hospital. He lamented
his surgical residents’ loss ofhis surgical residents’ loss of
tactile and problem-solving skills;tactile and problem-solving skills;
the novices, he said, were nowthe novices, he said, were now
mainly “computer gamers playingmainly “computer gamers playing
with the human body.” I challengedwith the human body.” I challenged
that, to which he responded,that, to which he responded,
“Come on over, I’ll let you watch.”“Come on over, I’ll let you watch.”
Actually, It was a realization I’dActually, It was a realization I’d
26. ““[Michael Vassar/[Michael Vassar/ MetaMedMetaMed founder] is creating a betterfounder] is creating a better
information system and new class of people to manage it.information system and new class of people to manage it.
‘Almost all health care‘Almost all health care
people get is going to bepeople get is going to be
done—hopefully—bydone—hopefully—by
algorithms within aalgorithms within a
decade or two.decade or two. We used to rely on doctorsWe used to rely on doctors
to be experts, and we’ve crowded them into being something liketo be experts, and we’ve crowded them into being something like
factory workers, where their job is to see one patient every 8 tofactory workers, where their job is to see one patient every 8 to
11 minutes and implement a by-the-book solution.11 minutes and implement a by-the-book solution. I’m talkingI’m talking
about creating a new ‘expert profession’—medicalabout creating a new ‘expert profession’—medical
quants, almost like hedgefund managers, who couldquants, almost like hedgefund managers, who could
do the high-level analytical work of directing all thedo the high-level analytical work of directing all the
information that flows into the world’s hard drives.information that flows into the world’s hard drives.
Doctors would now be aided by Vassar’s new information expertsDoctors would now be aided by Vassar’s new information experts
who would be aided by advanced artificial intelligence.”who would be aided by advanced artificial intelligence.” ——New YorkNew York //
0624.130624.13
27. ““When you ask [Cloudera founder Jeffrey] HammerbacherWhen you ask [Cloudera founder Jeffrey] Hammerbacher
what he sees as the most promising field that could bewhat he sees as the most promising field that could be
hacked by people like himself, he responds with two words:hacked by people like himself, he responds with two words:
‘Medical diagnostics.’ And clearly doctors should be watching‘Medical diagnostics.’ And clearly doctors should be watching
their backs, but they should be extra vigilant knowing thattheir backs, but they should be extra vigilant knowing that
the smartest guys of our generation—people likethe smartest guys of our generation—people like
Hammerbacher---are gunning for themHammerbacher---are gunning for them .. TheThe
tartarggets on [doctors’] backsets on [doctors’] backs
will onlwill onlyy ggrow larrow largger as theirer as their
comcompplication rates, their testlication rates, their test
results and theirresults and their ppractices areractices are
scrutinized by the unscrutinized by the un yyieldingielding
eeyye of ale of alggorithms built borithms built byy
smart ensmart enggineersineers.. Doctors aren’t going away,Doctors aren’t going away,
but those who want to ensure their employment in the futurebut those who want to ensure their employment in the future
should find ways to be exceptional. Bots can handle theshould find ways to be exceptional. Bots can handle the
grunt work, the work that falls to our average practitioners.”grunt work, the work that falls to our average practitioners.”
—Christopher Steiner,—Christopher Steiner, Automate This:Automate This:
How Algorithms Came to Rule the WorldHow Algorithms Came to Rule the World
28. Ditto healthcare as a whole?Ditto healthcare as a whole?
(This language may be too strong—(This language may be too strong—
but it is not fanciful.)but it is not fanciful.)
30. IoT/The Internet of ThingsIoT/The Internet of Things
IoE/The Internet ofIoE/The Internet of
EverythingEverything
M2M/Machine-to-MachineM2M/Machine-to-Machine
Ubiquitous computingUbiquitous computing
Embedded computingEmbedded computing
Pervasive computingPervasive computing
Industrial InternetIndustrial Internet
Etc.*Etc.* **** ******
*“*“More ThanMore Than 50 BILLION50 BILLION connected devices by 2020” —Ericssonconnected devices by 2020” —Ericsson
**Estimated**Estimated 212 BILLION212 BILLION connected devices by 2020—IDCconnected devices by 2020—IDC
***“By 2025 IoT could be applicable to***“By 2025 IoT could be applicable to $$8282 TRILLIONTRILLION
of output or approximately one half the global economy”—GE (The WAGs to endof output or approximately one half the global economy”—GE (The WAGs to end
31. ““Everything” is more or less not anEverything” is more or less not an
exaggeration.exaggeration.
32. Internet of Everything
““The idea of the IoE*The idea of the IoE* [Internet of[Internet of
Everything/Cisco Systems]Everything/Cisco Systems] is a networkedis a networked
connection of people,connection of people,
processes, data and ‘things,’processes, data and ‘things,’
which is being facilitated bywhich is being facilitated by
technology transitions suchtechnology transitions such
as increased mobility, cloudas increased mobility, cloud
computing and thecomputing and the
importance of big data.”importance of big data.”
*Estimated market size, next decade:*Estimated market size, next decade: $14.4$14.4
trilliontrillion
33. ““Internet of Things”:Internet of Things”: “The algorithms created by Nest’s“The algorithms created by Nest’s
machine-learning experts—and the troves of data generated bymachine-learning experts—and the troves of data generated by
those algorithms—are just as important as the sleek materialsthose algorithms—are just as important as the sleek materials
carefully selected by its industrial designers. By tracking itscarefully selected by its industrial designers. By tracking its
users and subtly influencing their behaviors, Nest Learningusers and subtly influencing their behaviors, Nest Learning
Thermostat transcends its pedestrian product category. NestThermostat transcends its pedestrian product category. Nest
has similar hopes for what has always been a prosaic device,has similar hopes for what has always been a prosaic device,
the smoke alarm. Yes, the Nest Protect does what everythe smoke alarm. Yes, the Nest Protect does what every
similar device does—goes off when smoke or CO reachessimilar device does—goes off when smoke or CO reaches
dangerous levels—but it does much more, by using sensors todangerous levels—but it does much more, by using sensors to
distinguish between smoke and steam, Internet connectivity todistinguish between smoke and steam, Internet connectivity to
tell you where the danger is, a calculated tone of voice totell you where the danger is, a calculated tone of voice to
convey a personality, and warm lighting to guide you in theconvey a personality, and warm lighting to guide you in the
darkness.darkness.
In other words, Nest isn’t only about beautifying theIn other words, Nest isn’t only about beautifying the
thermostat or adding features to the lowly smoke detector.thermostat or adding features to the lowly smoke detector.
‘‘We’re about creatinWe’re about creatin gg thethe
conscious homeconscious home,’,’ Nest CEO FadellNest CEO Fadell
says. Left unsaid is a grander vision, with even biggersays. Left unsaid is a grander vision, with even bigger
implications, many devices sensing the environment, talking toimplications, many devices sensing the environment, talking to
one another, and doing our bidding unprompted.”one another, and doing our bidding unprompted.”
Source: “Where There’s Smoke …”, Steven Levy,Source: “Where There’s Smoke …”, Steven Levy, WiredWired, NOV 2013, NOV 2013
34. Sensor Pills:Sensor Pills: “Proteus Digital Health is one of“Proteus Digital Health is one of
several pioneers in sensor-based health technology.several pioneers in sensor-based health technology.
TheTheyy make a silicon chimake a silicon chi pp the size of a grain of sandthe size of a grain of sand
that is embedded into a safelthat is embedded into a safel yy didiggestedested ppill that isill that is
swallowed. When the chiswallowed. When the chi pp mixes with stomachmixes with stomach
acids, theacids, the pprocessor isrocessor is ppowered bowered byy the bodthe bodyy’s’s
electricitelectricityy and transmits data to aand transmits data to a ppatch worn onatch worn on
the skin. Thatthe skin. That ppatch, in turn, transmits data viaatch, in turn, transmits data via
Bluetooth to a mobile aBluetooth to a mobile a pppp, which then transmits, which then transmits
the data to a central database where a healththe data to a central database where a health
technician can veriftechnician can verif yy if aif a ppatient has taken her oratient has taken her or
his medicationshis medications ..
““This is a bigger deal than it may seem. In 2012, it wasThis is a bigger deal than it may seem. In 2012, it was
estimated that people not taking their prescribedestimated that people not taking their prescribed
medications costmedications cost $258 BILLION$258 BILLION in emergency roomin emergency room
visits, hospitalization, and doctor visits. An average ofvisits, hospitalization, and doctor visits. An average of
130,000130,000 Americans die each year because they don’tAmericans die each year because they don’t
follow their prescription regimens closely enough…” (Thefollow their prescription regimens closely enough…” (The
FDA approved placebo testing in April 2012; sensor pillsFDA approved placebo testing in April 2012; sensor pills
are ticketed to come to market in 2015 or 2016.)are ticketed to come to market in 2015 or 2016.)
Source: Robert Scoble and Shel Israel,Source: Robert Scoble and Shel Israel, Age of Context: Mobile, Sensors,Age of Context: Mobile, Sensors,
Data and the Future of PrivacyData and the Future of Privacy
35. Please read carefully.Please read carefully.
(For what it portends.)(For what it portends.)
Science.Science.
Not science fiction.Not science fiction.
The FDA has approved trials.The FDA has approved trials.
37. ““Las Vegas CompanyLas Vegas Company
Could 3D Print YourCould 3D Print Your
Next Car: CustomersNext Car: Customers
could pick up newlycould pick up newly
printed car within 24printed car within 24
hours”hours” —Headline,—Headline, Las VegasLas Vegas
Sun/Sun/1225.141225.14
38. 3D printing.3D printing.
Effective thereof grows by the day.Effective thereof grows by the day.
10 years from now10 years from now ??????????
As to the quote above: JustAs to the quote above: Just
another low key Christmas Dayanother low key Christmas Day
2014 news story.2014 news story.
On the verge or not, typical of theOn the verge or not, typical of the
“crazy” stories one sees every day“crazy” stories one sees every day
now.now.
40. Shades of Ned Ludd …Shades of Ned Ludd …
““When Emmy [algorithm] producedWhen Emmy [algorithm] produced
orchestral pieces so impressive thatorchestral pieces so impressive that
some music scholars failed to identifysome music scholars failed to identify
them as the work of a machine, [thethem as the work of a machine, [the
developer, Prof. David] Cope instantlydeveloper, Prof. David] Cope instantly
created legions of enemies. …created legions of enemies. … At anAt an
academic conferenceacademic conference
in Germanin Germanyy, one of his, one of his
ppeers walked up toeers walked up to
him and whacked himhim and whacked him
on the noseon the nose.”.” —Christopher Steiner,—Christopher Steiner, Automate This:Automate This:
42. ““Algorithms have already writtenAlgorithms have already written
symphonies as moving as those composedsymphonies as moving as those composed
byby Beethoven, picked through, picked through
legalese with the deftness of a seniorlegalese with the deftness of a senior
law partner, diagnosed patients, diagnosed patients
with more accuracy than awith more accuracy than a doctor,,
written news articles with the smoothwritten news articles with the smooth
hand of a seasonedhand of a seasoned reporter, and, and
driven vehicles on urban highways with fardriven vehicles on urban highways with far
better control than a humanbetter control than a human driver.”.”
——Christopher Steiner,Christopher Steiner, Automate This: How
Algorithms Came to Rule the World
44. 4)4)
““Calculative power grows. SensoryCalculative power grows. Sensory
engagement fades.”engagement fades.”
“ ‘“ ‘Automation complacency’ creeps in when people giveAutomation complacency’ creeps in when people give
undue weight to the information coming in throughundue weight to the information coming in through
their monitors.”their monitors.”
““I quickly established a romantic attachment to myI quickly established a romantic attachment to my
GPS. I found comfort in her tranquil and slightlyGPS. I found comfort in her tranquil and slightly
anglophilic voice. I felt warm and safe following heranglophilic voice. I felt warm and safe following her
thin blue line. …thin blue line. … After a fewAfter a few
weeks it occurred to me that I could noweeks it occurred to me that I could no
longer get anywhere without her. … Ilonger get anywhere without her. … I
found I was quickly shedding all vestigesfound I was quickly shedding all vestiges
of geographic knowledge.of geographic knowledge. The price ofThe price of
convenience was a loss of autonomy.”convenience was a loss of autonomy.” —David Brooks, from his—David Brooks, from his
column “The Outsourced Brain”column “The Outsourced Brain”
““Problems can produce friction in our lives. And frictionProblems can produce friction in our lives. And friction
can act as a catalyst, pushing us to a fuller awarenesscan act as a catalyst, pushing us to a fuller awareness
and deeper understanding of our situation.”and deeper understanding of our situation.”
46. The literal decline of sensoryThe literal decline of sensory
powers.powers.
Scary?Scary?
I think so.I think so.
II knowknow so.so.
(My wife and I moved two years(My wife and I moved two years
ago. I became dependent on myago. I became dependent on my
GPS. Two years later I am cluelessGPS. Two years later I am clueless
about directions when I’m moreabout directions when I’m more
than a mile from home. My wifethan a mile from home. My wife
purposefully put her GPS out ofpurposefully put her GPS out of
reach in the car; two years on shereach in the car; two years on she
knows the local turf—up to 25knows the local turf—up to 25
miles away—almost perfectly. [Atmiles away—almost perfectly. [At
the start, I’d judge, Susan’s and mythe start, I’d judge, Susan’s and my
sense of direction were aboutsense of direction were about
47. tool for producing the designs themselves.tool for producing the designs themselves. TheThe
increasingly popular technique ofincreasingly popular technique of
parametric design, which usesparametric design, which uses
algorithms to establish formalalgorithms to establish formal
relationships among differentrelationships among different
design elements, puts thedesign elements, puts the
computer’s calculative power at thecomputer’s calculative power at the
center of the creative process.center of the creative process. InIn
the most athe most aggggressive aressive apppplication oflication of
the technithe techniqque, a buildinue, a buildingg’s form can’s form can
bebe ggenerated automaticallenerated automaticall yy by a setby a set
of alof alggorithms rather than comorithms rather than com pposedosed
manuallmanuallyy bbyy the desithe desiggner’s handner’s hand.. … The… The
transition from sketchpad to screen entails, many architects believe, atransition from sketchpad to screen entails, many architects believe, a
loss of creativity, of adventurousness. A designer working at aloss of creativity, of adventurousness. A designer working at a
computer has a tendency to lock in, visually and cognitively, on acomputer has a tendency to lock in, visually and cognitively, on a
design atdesign at
an early stage. He bypasses much of the reflective and exploratoryan early stage. He bypasses much of the reflective and exploratory
playfulness that springs from the tentativeness and ambiguity ofplayfulness that springs from the tentativeness and ambiguity of
48. ““In his eloquent 2009 book,In his eloquent 2009 book, TheThe
Thinking Hand,Thinking Hand, the distinguishedthe distinguished
Finnish architect Juhani PallasmaaFinnish architect Juhani Pallasmaa
argues thatargues that thethe ggrowinrowingg reliance onreliance on
comcompputers is makinuters is makingg it harder forit harder for
desidesiggners to imaners to imaggine the humanine the human
qqualities of their buildinualities of their buildin ggss —to—to
inhabit their works in progress ininhabit their works in progress in
the way that people will ultimatelythe way that people will ultimately
inhabit the finished structures.”inhabit the finished structures.”
““Calculative power grows. SensoryCalculative power grows. Sensory
engagement fades.”engagement fades.”
Source: Nicholas Carr,Source: Nicholas Carr, The Glass Cage: Automation and UsThe Glass Cage: Automation and Us
49. Atrophying creative powers.Atrophying creative powers.
Sad.Sad.
Scary.Scary.
(Inevitable?)(Inevitable?)
(More to come.)(More to come.)
(( MUCHMUCH more to come.)more to come.)
52. Let’s Welcome Our
Newest Board Member:
“Just like other members“Just like other members
of the board,of the board, thethe
algorithmalgorithm ggets to vote onets to vote on
whether the firm makeswhether the firm makes
an investment in aan investment in a
ssppecific comecific comppananyy or notor not..
The program will be theThe program will be the
sixth member of DKV'ssixth member of DKV's
board.”board.” —Business Insider,—Business Insider, 13 May 2014:13 May 2014:
54. ““Flash forward to dystopia. You work in aFlash forward to dystopia. You work in a
chic cubicle, sucking chicken-flavorchic cubicle, sucking chicken-flavor
sustenance fromsustenance from
a tube. You’re furiously maneuvering witha tube. You’re furiously maneuvering with
a joystick … Your boss stops by and givesa joystick … Your boss stops by and gives
you a look.you a look. ‘We need to talk about your‘We need to talk about your
loyalty to this company.’loyalty to this company.’ The
organization you work for
has deduced that you are
considering quitting. It
predicts your plans and
intentions, possibly before
you have even conceived
them.” —Eric Siegel,—Eric Siegel, Predictive Analytics:Predictive Analytics:
The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or DieThe Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die (based on a real case,(based on a real case,
55. AI comes surging intoAI comes surging into HRHR inin
the Age of “Big Data.”the Age of “Big Data.”
Katy bar the door.Katy bar the door.
(Whoops, too late Katy.)(Whoops, too late Katy.)
56. 7.57.5 THE MEDIANTHE MEDIAN
WORKER ISWORKER IS
LOSING THELOSING THE
RACE AGAINSTRACE AGAINST
THE MACHINETHE MACHINE
58. ““Human levelHuman level
capability has notcapability has not
turned out to be aturned out to be a
special stoppingspecial stopping
point from anpoint from an
engineeringengineering
perspective. ….”perspective. ….”
59. ““The intellectualThe intellectual
talents of highlytalents of highly
trainedtrained
professionals are noprofessionals are no
more protected frommore protected from
automation than isautomation than is
the driver’s leftthe driver’s left
turn.”turn.”
——Nicholas Carr,Nicholas Carr, The Glass Cage: Automation and UsThe Glass Cage: Automation and Us
60. ““If you thinkIf you think
being abeing a
‘professional’‘professional’
makes your jobmakes your job
safe, thinksafe, think
61. ““The computersThe computers
are in control. Weare in control. We
just live in theirjust live in their
world.”world.”
——Danny Hillis, Thinking Machines (Danny Hillis, Thinking Machines ( WiredWired 01.2011)01.2011)
62. ““Human level capability has notHuman level capability has not
turned out to be a special stoppingturned out to be a special stopping
point frompoint from
an engineering perspective.”an engineering perspective.”
——Illah Reza Nourbakhsh,Illah Reza Nourbakhsh, Robot Futures/2013Robot Futures/2013
““SOFTWARE IS EATING THESOFTWARE IS EATING THE
WORLD.”WORLD.”
——Marc Andreessen/2014Marc Andreessen/2014
““The computers are in control. WeThe computers are in control. We
just live in their world.”just live in their world.” —Danny Hillis, Thinking—Danny Hillis, Thinking
Machines/2011Machines/2011
““The intellectual talents of highlyThe intellectual talents of highly
trained professionals are no moretrained professionals are no more
protected from automation than isprotected from automation than is
the driver’s left turn.”the driver’s left turn.”
63. ““Ten Million Jobs at Risk from AdvancingTen Million Jobs at Risk from Advancing
Technology: Up to 35 percent of Britain'sTechnology: Up to 35 percent of Britain's
jobsjobs
will be eliminated by new computing andwill be eliminated by new computing and
robotics technology over the next 20 years,robotics technology over the next 20 years,
say expertssay experts [Deloitte/Oxford University].[Deloitte/Oxford University]. ””
——Headline,Headline, TelegraphTelegraph (UK),(UK), 1111 NovemberNovember 20142014
““I believe that 90 percent of white-I believe that 90 percent of white-
collar/‘knowledge-work’ jobs—which are 80collar/‘knowledge-work’ jobs—which are 80
percent of all jobs—in the U.S. will bepercent of all jobs—in the U.S. will be
either destroyed or altered beyondeither destroyed or altered beyond
recognition in the next 10 to 15 years.”recognition in the next 10 to 15 years.” —Tom—Tom
Peters, Cover,Peters, Cover, TimeTime,, 2222 MaMayy 20002000
““The machine plays no favorites betweenThe machine plays no favorites between
manual and white collar labor.”manual and white collar labor.” —Norbert Wiener,—Norbert Wiener,
19581958
65. “A bureaucrat is
an expensive
microchip.”
——Dan Sullivan, consultant and executive coachDan Sullivan, consultant and executive coach
66. Robotics and Artificial IntelligenceRobotics and Artificial Intelligence
are taking on (taking OVER?) high-are taking on (taking OVER?) high-
end white-collar (and “white coat”)end white-collar (and “white coat”)
jobs.jobs.
And we’re only warming up …And we’re only warming up …
67. “I believe that ninety
percent of white-
collar/“knowledge-work”
jobs (which are 80
percent of all jobs) in the
U.S. will be either
destroyed or altered
beyond recognition in the
next 10 to 15 years.”
——Cover story/Cover story/TimeTime/22 May 2000/Tom Peters/22 May 2000/Tom Peters
68. (I was a little premature with my(I was a little premature with my
Y2K prognostication. But, perhaps,Y2K prognostication. But, perhaps,
not by much.)not by much.)
69. “Ten Million Jobs at Risk
from Advancing
Technology: Up to 35
percent of Britain's jobs
will be eliminated by new
computing and robotics
technology over the next
20 years, say experts at
Deloitte and Oxford
University.”
——Headline,Headline, TelegraphTelegraph (UK), 11(UK), 11 NovemberNovember 20142014
70. The source is unimpeachable, evenThe source is unimpeachable, even
if the argument is speculative.if the argument is speculative.
Predictions like this are gardenPredictions like this are garden
variety in 2015.variety in 2015.
““Off”?Off”?
Perhaps.Perhaps.
““Off” by much?Off” by much?
Unlikely.Unlikely.
““Plausible hypothesis”?Plausible hypothesis”?
Absolutely.Absolutely.
71. ““The root of our problem is notThe root of our problem is not
that we’re in a Great Recessionthat we’re in a Great Recession
or a Great Stagnation, but ratheror a Great Stagnation, but rather
that we are in the earlythat we are in the early
throes of athroes of a Great
Restructurin
g. Our technologies are racing. Our technologies are racing
ahead,ahead,
but our skills and organizationsbut our skills and organizations
72. This is a principal explanation as toThis is a principal explanation as to
why the economy is coming back—butwhy the economy is coming back—but
new jobs and wage increases arenew jobs and wage increases are
lagging* lagginglagging* lagging
l-a-g-g-i-n-gl-a-g-g-i-n-g..
(*When it comes to wage-rate(*When it comes to wage-rate
movement, “non-existent” or evenmovement, “non-existent” or even
“declining” are the correct words.)“declining” are the correct words.)
73. “The median
worker is losing
the race against
the machine.” *
——Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee,Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee,
Race AGAINST the MachineRace AGAINST the Machine
*“Occupations intensive in tasks that can easily be*“Occupations intensive in tasks that can easily be
computerized are usually in the middle class.” (MIT’s Davidcomputerized are usually in the middle class.” (MIT’s David
Autor)Autor)
74. ““New technologies aren’t just labor-New technologies aren’t just labor-
replacing. They’re also knowledge-replacing. They’re also knowledge-
replacing. The combination ofreplacing. The combination of
advanced sensors, voice recognition,advanced sensors, voice recognition,
artificial intelligence, big data, text-artificial intelligence, big data, text-
mining, and pattern-recognitionmining, and pattern-recognition
algorithms, is generating smartalgorithms, is generating smart
robots capable of quickly learningrobots capable of quickly learning
human actions, and even learninghuman actions, and even learning
from one another.from one another. If you thinkIf you think
being a “professional”being a “professional”
makes your job safe,makes your job safe,
75. (1) Interviewee re TurboTax: “No way. I don’t use an H&R Block tax(1) Interviewee re TurboTax: “No way. I don’t use an H&R Block tax
preparer any more. I’ve switched to TurboTax software. It’s only $49preparer any more. I’ve switched to TurboTax software. It’s only $49
and much quicker and more accurate.” Brynjolfsson/McAfee:and much quicker and more accurate.” Brynjolfsson/McAfee: “The“The
creators of TurboTax are better off—but tens of thousands of taxcreators of TurboTax are better off—but tens of thousands of tax
preparers now find their jobs and incomes threatened.”preparers now find their jobs and incomes threatened.”
(2) CEO interviewed by the authors says he installed new infotech(2) CEO interviewed by the authors says he installed new infotech
equipment before the Great Recession, but did not cut payroll whenequipment before the Great Recession, but did not cut payroll when
profits were soaring. And then:profits were soaring. And then: ““When the recessionWhen the recession
came, business as usual was obviouslcame, business as usual was obviousl yy
not sustainable, which made it easiernot sustainable, which made it easier
to imto impplement a round oflement a round of ppainfulainful
streamlining and layoffs. As thestreamlining and layoffs. As the
recession ended andrecession ended and pprofits androfits and
demand returned, thedemand returned, the jjobs doinobs doingg routineroutine
work were not restoredwork were not restored .”.”
(3) “For most of the 19(3) “For most of the 19thth
and 20th centuries, employment usuallyand 20th centuries, employment usually
rebounded after each recession, but since the 1990s employmentrebounded after each recession, but since the 1990s employment
didn’t recover briskly after recessions.didn’t recover briskly after recessions. It’s not coincidence that asIt’s not coincidence that as
the computerization of the economy advanced, post-recession hiringthe computerization of the economy advanced, post-recession hiring
patterns changed.”patterns changed.”
Source:Source: The Second Machine AgeThe Second Machine Age , by Eric Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, by Eric Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
76. The New Logic: Scale w/o EmploymentThe New Logic: Scale w/o Employment
Kodak: 1988/Kodak: 1988/145,000
employees; 2012/bankruptemployees; 2012/bankrupt
Instagram: 30,000,000Instagram: 30,000,000
customers/customers/
13 employeesemployees
(WhatsApp: 450,000,000(WhatsApp: 450,000,000
customers/customers/ 55 employees/employees/
Valued @ $19,000,000,000)Valued @ $19,000,000,000)
Source: Robert Reich’s Blog/0317.15
77. More or less trading 145,000 jobsMore or less trading 145,000 jobs
for 13 jobs? Yeah, more or less.for 13 jobs? Yeah, more or less.
Just pause and read/re-read/re-re-Just pause and read/re-read/re-re-
read this.read this.
Form your own conclusions aboutForm your own conclusions about
implications.implications.
78. ““It’s now possible to sell a new product to hundreds ofIt’s now possible to sell a new product to hundreds of
millions of people without needing many, if any,millions of people without needing many, if any,
workers to produce or distribute it. At its prime in 1988,workers to produce or distribute it. At its prime in 1988,
Kodak, the iconic American photography company, hadKodak, the iconic American photography company, had
145,000145,000 employees. In 2012,employees. In 2012,
Kodak filed for bankruptcy. The same year Kodak wentKodak filed for bankruptcy. The same year Kodak went
under, Instagram, the world’s newest photo company,under, Instagram, the world’s newest photo company,
hadhad
1313 employees servingemployees serving 30,000,00030,000,000 customers.customers.
““The ratio of producers to customers continues toThe ratio of producers to customers continues to
plummet. When Facebook purchased “WhatsApp” (theplummet. When Facebook purchased “WhatsApp” (the
messaging app)messaging app)
for $19 billion last year, WhatsApp hadfor $19 billion last year, WhatsApp had 5555 employeesemployees
servingserving 450,000,000450,000,000 customers.customers.
““A friend, operating from his home in Tucson, recentlyA friend, operating from his home in Tucson, recently
invented a machine that can find particles of certaininvented a machine that can find particles of certain
elements in the air. He’s already sold hundreds of theseelements in the air. He’s already sold hundreds of these
machines over the Internet to customers all over themachines over the Internet to customers all over the
world. He’s manufacturing them inworld. He’s manufacturing them in
his garage with a 3D printer. So far, his entire businesshis garage with a 3D printer. So far, his entire business
depends on just one person — himself.”depends on just one person — himself.”
——Robert Reich, “Robert Reich’s Blog”/0315.15Robert Reich, “Robert Reich’s Blog”/0315.15
81. ““We are in no danWe are in no dan ggerer
of runninof runningg out ofout of
new combinationsnew combinations
trtry.y. EvenEven
if technology froze today, we haveif technology froze today, we have
more possible ways of configuringmore possible ways of configuring
the different applications,the different applications,
machines, tasks, and distributionmachines, tasks, and distribution
channels to create new processeschannels to create new processes
and products than we could everand products than we could ever
exhaust.”exhaust.” ——Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfeeErik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee , Race, Race
Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is AcceleratingAgainst the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating
Innovation, Driving Productivity and Irreversibly TransformingInnovation, Driving Productivity and Irreversibly Transforming
Employment and the EconomyEmployment and the Economy
82. ““The ecosystem used toThe ecosystem used to
funnel lots of talentedfunnel lots of talented
people into a few clearpeople into a few clear
winners.winners. Now it’sNow it’s
funnelinfunnelingg lots oflots of
talentedtalented ppeoeopplele
into lots ofinto lots of
exexpperimentseriments.”.”
——Tyler Willis, business developer, to Nathan Heller inTyler Willis, business developer, to Nathan Heller in “Bay Watched:“Bay Watched:
How San Francisco’s New Entrepreneurial Culture IsHow San Francisco’s New Entrepreneurial Culture Is
83. We have adapted before toWe have adapted before to
monumental change. …monumental change. …
85. Life BEFORE Clay Christensen “Invented” “Disruption”:Life BEFORE Clay Christensen “Invented” “Disruption”: My mom (1909-My mom (1909-
2005) lived through the advent of mass market cars,2005) lived through the advent of mass market cars,
commercial radio, routine long-distance phone calls, portablecommercial radio, routine long-distance phone calls, portable
phones, cell phones, satellites, satellite phone callphones, cell phones, satellites, satellite phone call
transmission, movies with sound, color movies, TV, TV dinners,transmission, movies with sound, color movies, TV, TV dinners,
microwave ovens, commercial use of aircraft, jets, extensivemicrowave ovens, commercial use of aircraft, jets, extensive
electrification, the Great Depression, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth,electrification, the Great Depression, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth,
Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Barry Bonds, Derek Jeter, the WestWalter Johnson, Bob Feller, Barry Bonds, Derek Jeter, the West
Coast Offense, the Civil Rights Movement, an African-AmericanCoast Offense, the Civil Rights Movement, an African-American
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff/Secretary of State, GayChairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff/Secretary of State, Gay
Pride, women win the right to vote, Gandhi, Churchill, WWI,Pride, women win the right to vote, Gandhi, Churchill, WWI,
WWII, the Holocaust, the birth of the U.S. Navy Seabees,WWII, the Holocaust, the birth of the U.S. Navy Seabees,
relativity, the A-bomb, H-bomb, the EEC, the EU, the Euro, therelativity, the A-bomb, H-bomb, the EEC, the EU, the Euro, the
Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, 9/11, the Cold War,Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, 9/11, the Cold War,
the disintegration of the USSR, the resurgence of China, thethe disintegration of the USSR, the resurgence of China, the
death and resurrection of Germany and Japan, Oklahoma &death and resurrection of Germany and Japan, Oklahoma &
New Mexico & Arizona & Hawaii & Alaska become states,New Mexico & Arizona & Hawaii & Alaska become states,
William Howard Taft* (*just missed Teddy RooseveltWilliam Howard Taft* (*just missed Teddy Roosevelt !!), FDR,), FDR,
Ronald Reagan, Father Coughlin, Jim and Tammy Bakker,Ronald Reagan, Father Coughlin, Jim and Tammy Bakker,
mainframe computers, PCs, hyperlinks, the iPod, DARPA-net,mainframe computers, PCs, hyperlinks, the iPod, DARPA-net,
the Internet, air conditioning, weed whackers, Mickey Mouse,the Internet, air conditioning, weed whackers, Mickey Mouse,
Frank Sinatra, Elvis, the Beatles, Madonna, the Model T, theFrank Sinatra, Elvis, the Beatles, Madonna, the Model T, the
Cadillac Escalade, Nancy Drew, the first four Harry PotterCadillac Escalade, Nancy Drew, the first four Harry Potter
books, antibiotics, MRIs, polio vaccine, genetic mapping,books, antibiotics, MRIs, polio vaccine, genetic mapping, WWIIWWII
rockets, space flight, man-to-the-moon, probe on Mars, more orrockets, space flight, man-to-the-moon, probe on Mars, more or
less permanentless permanent
space station.”**space station.”**
86. My Mom’s life was not exactly aMy Mom’s life was not exactly a
yawner when it came toyawner when it came to
“disruption”!“disruption”!
(As management guru Henry(As management guru Henry
Mintzberg put it years agoMintzberg put it years ago
[approximate],[approximate], “It is the conceit“It is the conceit
of every generation to see theof every generation to see the
present as tangled chaos,present as tangled chaos,
whereas the past was linear,whereas the past was linear,
readily explainable and muchreadily explainable and much
slower paced.”slower paced.” ))
93. AIAI/Be Careful of What You/Be Careful of What You
Wish ForWish For
HawkingHawking**
GatesGates****
MuskMusk
Etc.Etc.
* “The development of full artificial intelligence could* “The development of full artificial intelligence could
spell the endspell the end
of the human race.”of the human race.”
94. ““The greatestThe greatest
shortcoming of theshortcoming of the
human race is ourhuman race is our
inability toinability to
understand theunderstand the
exponentialexponential
function.”function.” —Albert A. Bartlett—Albert A. Bartlett
95. There are nightmare scenariosThere are nightmare scenarios
about software/AI more or lessabout software/AI more or less
taking over—and some of our besttaking over—and some of our best
and brightest are asking us not toand brightest are asking us not to
stand idly by while it occurs.stand idly by while it occurs.
Arguably …Arguably …
We shouldn’t panic.We shouldn’t panic.
We shouldn’t stand around with ourWe shouldn’t stand around with our
hands in our pockets.hands in our pockets.
