The CAP, yesterday, today and tomorrow XI: which interlinks between the CAP and the Doha Round negotiations?.

1. The CAP yesterday, today and tomorow
2015/2016
SBSEM and European Commission
12 The Doha Round
Tomás García Azcárate

2. The mandate: more of the same

3. Calendar I
• 1999: Seattle summit failure

4. Calendar II
• 2001 Doha (Qatar): real start. Supposed to be
ended by 2005.
• 2003 Cancun: another failure

5. Calendar III
• 2004 Geneva: some openness from developed
countries on export refunds and from developing
countries on border protection for industrial
products
• 2005 Hong Kong: no major progress except
some gestures for Least Developed Countries
• 2008 Geneva: Falconer’s first draft modalities
on the table

6. Calendar IV
• Big questions on the table: early harvest or
global talks?
• 2013: Bali “agreement” on trade facilitation and
public stocktaking for food security purposes
• 2015:?

7. A complex negotiation I
• An agreement requires the unanimity of all
members, including Cuba, Venezuela, Ecuador,
Iran, Syria…
• The world has changed: today China, Russia,
Brazil and India are also major players, in
addition to the US and Europe
• Many countries have created groups in order to
increase their influence…

8. A complex negotiation II
• Many countries have created groups in order to
increase their influence:
• G10: net importing developing countries
• G20: developing countries (including China,
Brazil and India) willing to open agricultural
developed countries markets and to maintain
special treatment as far as their industrial,
services and agriculture protection is concerned.

9. A complex negotiation III
• G90: ACP countries + least developed countries
+ G4 (African cotton producers). Suffer from the
erosion of trade preferences obtained in
particular with the EU. Want to protect their own
agriculture for food sovereignty reasons.

10. A complex negotiation IV
• G33: developing countries that want to maintain
their good sovereignty
• Last but not least:
• Cairns group: agro-exporters willing to open
agricultural markets of (some) developed
countries

11. An impossible task I?
• China and India are the big winners from the
current rules:

12. An impossible task II?
• Why would they accept a change to the rules?
How many concessions did they need in order to
compensate for the opening of their agricultural,
industrial and services markets?
• 700 million Chinese farmers! 500 million Indian
farmers! Political, geographical, social risks.

13. An impossible task III?
• US: is only able to offer limited agricultural
concessions but claims for massive market
opening for agriculture, industry and services…
elsewhere
• EU: thanks to our CAP reforms, we are no longer
in the centre of the blockages

14. If you want to know more …
• DG AGRI webpage:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_en.htm
• My webpage:
http://tomasgarciaazcarate.com
• Twitter: Tgarciaazcarate
• Linkedin: Tomas Garcia Azcarate
• Facebook: Tomas Garcia Azcarate