FLEMISH SOCIALIST PARTY FLOOR LEADER, RECENTLY-RETURNED FROM RED CARPET IV TRIP TO UNITED STATES, REAFFIRMS HIS FIRM OPPOSITION TO LRTNF AND PREDICTS TOUGH BATTLE AHEAD FOR GOVERNMENT COALITION.

1. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
Message Text
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 BRUSSE 18377 01 OF 02 171737Z
ACTION EURE-12
INFO OCT-01 ADS-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
SSO-00 ICAE-00 INRE-00 PM-06 H-01 INR-10 L-03
PA-01 SP-02 SS-15 IO-14 ACDA-12 OMB-01 TRSE-00
SR-04 EB-08 /090 W
------------------109935 171748Z /41
O 171722Z OCT 79
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6529
INFO AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
USNMR SHAPE
CINCLANT NORFOLK VA
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 18377
E.O. 12065: GDS 10/17/85 (DE TARR, FRANCIS) OR-M
TAGS: MNUC, MPOL, PARM, PINT, NATO, BE, PGOV
SUBJECT: LRTNF AND BELGIUM: A VERY NEGATIVE FLEMISH
SOCIALIST VIEW
REFS: (A) BRUSSELS 18149, (B) BRUSSELS 17918,
(C) BRUSSELS 12262, (D) BRUSSELS 18306
1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT.
2. SUMMARY. FLEMISH SOCIALIST PARTY FLOOR LEADER,
RECENTLY-RETURNED FROM RED CARPET IV TRIP TO UNITED
STATES, REAFFIRMS HIS FIRM OPPOSITION TO LRTNF AND
PREDICTS TOUGH BATTLE AHEAD FOR GOVERNMENT COALITION.
END SUMMARY.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 BRUSSE 18377 01 OF 02 171737Z
3. THUS FAR VIRTUALLY THE ONLY PROMINENT PARLIAMENTARY
PUBLIC STATEMENTS IN BELGIUM CONCERNING TNF HAVE COME
FROM THE FLEMISH SOCIALIST PARTY'S FLOOR LEADER AND
"DEFENSE SPECIALIST," LOUIS TOBBACK. IN JULY TOBBACK
QUESTIONED SIMONET ON TNF IN PARLIAMENT (REF C),
AND IN A BRIEF PRESS INTERVIEW LAST WEEK ATTACKED

2. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
SIMONET FOR THE MINISTER'S ALLEGED STATEMENTS IN
WASHINGTON AND DECLARED THAT NEITHER THE GOVERNMENT
NOR ONE MINISTER SHOULD HAVE THE FINAL SAY ON TNF
(REF A). TOBBACK'S INTERVIEW, IN ADDITION TO
ILLUSTRATING HIS CONTINUED ANIMOSITT TOWARD SIMONET
(THEY WERE MEMBERS OF THE SAME PARTY UNTIL THE
SOCIALISTS SPLIT ALONG LINGUISTIC LINES LAST YEAR),
PROVIDED EVIDENCE THAT, DESPITE OUR HOPES, HIS
RECENT AND EXTENSIVE IV TRIP IN THE UNITED STATES
HAS NOT CHANGED HIS NEGATIVE ATTITUDES TOWARDS TNF.
WE HAVE NOW HAD THIS DIRECTLY AND ABUNDANTLY CONFIRMED
BY TOBBACK HIMSELF.
4. IN A PRIVATE CONVERSATION ON OCTOBER 15, TOBBACK
EXPRESSED DEEP APPRECIATION FOR THE WARM RECEPTION
HE HAD RECEIVED IN WASHINGTON AND AT MILITARY
INSTALLATIONS RANGING FROM CINCLANT TO CINCPAC.
HE HAD HAD LONG AND INTERESTING DISCUSSIONS ON TNF
AND OTHER DEFENSE QUESTIONS WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF
DISTINGUISHED INTERLOCUTORS. HE HAS RETURNED, HOWEVER,
MORE CONVINCED THAN EVER THAT LRTNF MEANS DECOUPLING
AND WOULD BE BAD FOR EUROPEAN SECURITY.
5. DURING A LIVELY (BUT FOR US DEPRESSING) EXCHANGE,
TOBBACK MADE THE FOLLOWING POTPOURRI OF POINTS
(NOTE: HE SAID THAT HE HAD MADE THE SAME ARGUMENTS
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 BRUSSE 18377 01 OF 02 171737Z
AND RECEIVED SIMILAR ANSWERS, NOT REPEATED HERE,
WHILE IN THE UNITED STATES, AND NOTABLY AT A FINAL
DISCUSSION AT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES IN
WASHINGTON): IF TNF MODERNIZATION IS CARRIED
OUT, EUROPEANS WOULD BECOME SECOND-CLASS CITIZENS
WHERE DEFENSE IS CONCERNED. HE FIRMLY BELIEVES IN
NATO, BUT WANTS EUROPEANS TO BE FIRST-CLASS MEMBERS
OF THE ALLIANCE. IF THE SOVIETS DECIDE TO MOVE
WESTWARD, E.G. INTO WESTERN BERLIN, THEY MUST BE
MADE TO EXPECT THAT WAR WOULD BREAK OUT "FROM THE
NORTH POLE TO ANTARCTICA," I.E. MASSIVE RETALIATION.
FLEXIBLE RESPONSE IS NOT FOR TOBBACK. HE DOES NOT
WANT EUROPE TO SERVE AS "ANOTHER VIETNAM," WHERE OTHER
COUNTRIES FIGHT THEIR BATTLES. YES, THERE ARE 300,000
AMERICAN TROOPS IN GERMANY, BUT IN A CRISIS THEY
WOULD NOT BE REALLY IMPORTANT IN PRESIDENTIAL
DECISION-MAKING COMPARED TO NINE MILLION NEW YORKERS.
ONLY THE AMERICAN STRATEGIC BALANCE COUNTS. IN A
SHOWDOWN, HE ARGUED, THE SOVIETS WOULD NOT BE
IMPRESSED BY LRTNF WEAPONS THAT CANNOT EVEN REACH
MOSCOW. WHEN IT COMES TO THE STRATEGIC BALANCE, WHAT
DO A FEW HUNDRED PERSHING II'S AND CRUISE MISSILES

3. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
ADD? THE LATTER, IN ANY CASE, CAN BE FITTED ON
B-52'S. IF THE DEFENSE OF WESTERN EUROPE WILL
HAVE TO DEPEND ON WEAPONS BASED IN FLANDERS, HE (AND
PEOPLE LIKE HIM) WOULD HAVE TO GO SEE THE GERMAN
SOCIALIST WEHNER (AND PEOPLE LIKE HIM) AND SEE WHAT
CAN BE WORKED OUT TO HELP EUROPE SURVIVE. A "GAULLIST"
APPROACH MAKES NO SENSE WHEN IT COMES TO DEFENDING
EUROPE, E.G. THE RECENT PROPOSALS MADE IN FRANCE BY
GENERAL BUIS AND FORMER MINISTER SANGUINETTI FOR
FRANCO-GERMAN NUCLEAR COOPERATION. AN ITALIAN
ACCEPTANCE OF TNF IS NOT IMPORTANT; WHAT REALLY
CONFIDENTIAL
NNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 BRUSSE 18377 02 OF 02 171744Z
ACTION EURE-12
INFO OCT-01 ADS-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
SSO-00 ICAE-00 INRE-00 PM-06 H-01 INR-10 L-03
PA-01 SP-02 SS-15 IO-14 ACDA-12 OMB-01 TRSE-00
SR-04 EB-08 /090 W
------------------109989 171750Z /41
O 171722Z OCT 79
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6530
INFO AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
USNMR SHAPE
CINCLANT NORFOLK VA
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 BRUSSELS 18377
COUNTS IS THE CENTRAL SECTOR, NAMELY GERMANY, BELGIUM
AND THE NETHERLANDS. THE UNITED STATES' ATTITUDE
TOWARD THE DEFENSE OF EUROPE IS WHAT IS REALLY AT
STAKE IN THE TNF DEBATE AND, IN HIS VIEW, TNF MEANS
THAT THE UNITED STATES WOULD BE WITHDRAWING ITS OWN
TERRITORY FROM THE NUCLEAR CONFRONTATION ZONE.
DR. KISSINGER'S SPEECH IN BRUSSELS, DESPITE SUBSEQUENT
DISAVOWALS, WAS VERY REVEALING IN THIS REGARD. IT
IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER TO TRY TO KEEP THE

4. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
AMERICAN NUCLEAR UMBRELLA CLOSELY TIED TO EUROPE.
IN BRIEF, MASSIVE RETALIATION IS THE WEST'S ONLY
CREDIBLE DETERRENT AND LRTNF WOULD BE A STEP IN
THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.
CONFIDENTIAL
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PAGE 02 BRUSSE 18377 02 OF 02 171744Z
6. AFTER IT BECAME EVIDENT THAT TOBBACK WAS IMPERVIOUS
TO ARGUMENTS REGARDING WHAT WE SEE AS OBVIOUS POLITICAL
AND MILITARY REALITIES, INCLUDING THE CRUCIAL IMPORTANCE
OF SOVIET PERCEPTIONS, THE IMPORTANT POLITICAL IMPLI-
CATIONS OF LRTNF, AND THE NEED FOR EFFECTIVE DETERRENTS
AT ALL LEVELS, WE ASKED HIM HOW HE SAW THE TNF ISSUE
DEVELOPING IN BELGIUM.
7. IT IS CLEAR, TOBBACK SAID, THAT SIMONET WOULD HAVE
LIKED TO HAVE SLIPPED TNF THROUGH THE GOVERNMENT AS
A TECHNICAL DECISION. BUT NOW IT IS CLEAR THAT
PARLIAMENT WILL BE INVOLVED. HE, TOBBACK, WANTS TNF
TO BE THE SUBJECT OF A FULL PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE
AND VOTE. THIS, HE SAID, PRESUMABLY WILL TAKE PLACE
IN NOVEMBER OR DECEMBER.
8. TOBBACK SAID THAT HE HOPED THAT THE GOVERNMENT
WOULD NOT MAKE THE TNF ISSUE A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE.
IF A VOTE WERE HELD THAT IS NOT TIED TO THE
GOVERNMENT'S SURVIVAL, MOST OF THE FLEMISH AND
FRANCOPHONE SOCIALISTS, HE PREDICTED, WOULD VOTE IN
OPPOSITION ("IF THEY REALLY VOTE HOW THEY FEEL,
80 PERCENT"). THERE WOULD ALSO BE SOME NEGATIVE
VOTES IN BOTH THE FRANCOPHONE AND FLEMISH SOCIAL
CHRISTIAN PARTIES (SHARING THE NEGATIVE ATTITUDES
HELD TOWARDS TNF BY DUTCH CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS)
AND IN THE BRUSSELS DEMOCRATIC FRANCOPHONE FRONT--FDF).
IN ANSWER TO OUR QUERY, TOBBACK SAID THAT AS TNF IS NOT
YET A MAJOR ISSUE IN BELGIUM IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO PREDICT WHAT THE OVERALL OUTCOME OF SUCH A VOTE
WOULD BE. IN ANY CASE, THERE WOULD BE A DIVERSE
ARRAY OF OPPONENTS RANGING FROM COMMUNISTS
AND "DISARM TO SURVIVE" ANTI-MILITARISTS IN THE
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 BRUSSE 18377 02 OF 02 171744Z
SOCIALIST PARTY TO FDF "GAULLISTS."
9. IF THE GOVERNMENT DECIDES TO MAKE THE TNF ISSUE A
VOTE OF CONFIDENCE, TOBBACK POINTED OUT, OTHER

5. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
INTERESTS, OF COURSE, WOULD BE AT STAKE, NOTABLY
MINISTERIAL POSITIONS. IN THIS CASE, "TNF PROBABLY
COULD PASS." A STRONG SUPPORTING SPEECH BY MINISTER
OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS WILLY CLAES, FOR EXAMPLE, WOULD
CARRY MUCH WEIGHT AMONG FLEMISH SOCIALISTS.
10. COMMENT: TOBBACK MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE WILL BE
LEADING THE PACK IN OPPOSITION TO TNF MODERNIZATION.
HE WILL BE A DETERMINED AND INFLUENTIAL FOE. IN ADDI-
TION TO BEING FLOOR LEADER, TOBBACK IS CLOSE TO
FLEMISH SOCIALIST PARTY PRESIDENT KAREL VAN MIERT,
WHO LONG HAS BEEN NEGATIVE ON DEFENSE ISSUES AND WHO
SHARES WITH TOBBACK A LIVELY DISLIKE AND DISTRUST
FOR SIMONET (E.G. ON ZAIRE POLICY; BRUSSELS 17522),
FEELINGS THAT ARE ABUNDANTLY RECIPROCATED
(REF D). TOBBACK'S EFFECTIVENESS WILL ALSO BE
INCREASED, UNFORTUNATELY, BY THE AURA OF A NEWLY-
ACQUIRED "EXPERTISE" THAT HE HAS BROUGHT BACK FROM
THE UNITED STATES. CHAMBERS
CONFIDENTIAL
NNN

6. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
Message Attributes
Automatic Decaptioning: X
Capture Date: 01 jan 1994
Channel Indicators: n/a
Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Concepts: ALLIANCE, SOCIALISM, NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES, FOREIGN POLICY POSITION, POLITICAL PARTIES, REGIONAL DEFENSE
ORGANIZATIONS
Control Number: n/a
Copy: SINGLE
Draft Date: 17 oct 1979
Decaption Date: 01 jan 1960
Decaption Note:
Disposition Action: RELEASED
Disposition Approved on Date:
Disposition Case Number: n/a
Disposition Comment: 25 YEAR REVIEW
Disposition Date: 20 Mar 2014
Disposition Event:
Disposition History: n/a
Disposition Reason:
Disposition Remarks:
Document Number: 1979BRUSSE18377
Document Source: CORE
Document Unique ID: 00
Drafter: n/a
Enclosure: n/a
Executive Order: GS 19851017 DE TARR, FRANCIS
Errors: N/A
Expiration:
Film Number: D790476-0167
Format: TEL
From: BRUSSELS OR-M
Handling Restrictions: n/a
Image Path:
ISecure: 1
Legacy Key: link1979/newtext/t19791065/aaaacbif.tel
Line Count: 243
Litigation Code IDs:
Litigation Codes:
Litigation History:
Locator: TEXT ON-LINE, ON MICROFILM
Message ID: 6f5c5e3f-c288-dd11-92da-001cc4696bcc
Office: ACTION EURE
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Original Handling Restrictions: n/a
Original Previous Classification: n/a
Original Previous Handling Restrictions: n/a
Page Count: 5
Previous Channel Indicators: n/a
Previous Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Previous Handling Restrictions: n/a
Reference: 79 BRUSSELS 18149, 79 BRUSSELS 17918, 79 BRUSSELS 12262, 79 BRUSSELS 18306
Retention: 0
Review Action: RELEASED, APPROVED
Review Content Flags:
Review Date: 13 jan 2006
Review Event:
Review Exemptions: n/a
Review Media Identifier:
Review Release Date: n/a
Review Release Event: n/a
Review Transfer Date:
Review Withdrawn Fields: n/a
SAS ID: 1161718
Secure: OPEN
Status: NATIVE
Subject: LRTNF AND BELGIUM: A VERY NEGATIVE FLEMISH SOCIALIST VIEW
TAGS: MNUC, MPOL, PARM, PINT, PGOV, BE, NATO, TNF
To: STATE BONN
Type: TE
vdkvgwkey: odbc://SAS/SAS.dbo.SAS_Docs/6f5c5e3f-c288-dd11-92da-001cc4696bcc
Review Markings:
Sheryl P. Walter
Declassified/Released
US Department of State
EO Systematic Review
20 Mar 2014
Markings: Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014