Recession Impact on Real Estate

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.
What Does a
Recession Mean
for the Real
Estate Industry?
North Pointe Sales Meeting
August 2, 2022
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OUR HOMESALE COMPLETE SERVICES
Dan Ranck
(717) 271-2400
NMLS # 140989
James Ream
(717) 286-9703
NMLS # 1598468

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Sarah Tompos
(717) 587-7666
stompos@homesale.com
Sheri Kelly
(717) 669-2065
skelly@homesale.com

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James White
(717) 575-4014
JamesWhite@homesale.com

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YOUR HOME WARRANTY EXPERT
Desmond George
(267) 303-7225
degeorge@cinchhs.com
cinchrealestate.com
Mobile Business Card
Text dgeorge to 88500

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NEW PLAN & PRICING HIGHLIGHTS

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NEW PLAN & PRICING HIGHLIGHTS

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2022 BHHS AWARDS CRITERIA

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2022 HOMESALE AWARDS CRITERIA
• Homesale Complete Team of the Year
• Homesale Complete Agent of the Year
• First Year Excellence Agent of the Year
The newly licensed independent agent who
does the most closed transactions during their
first 12 months.
• Top 10 Individual Agents by GCI
• Top 10 Teams by GCI
• Top 10 Individual Agents by Units
• Top 10 Teams by Units

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NORTH POINTE RENOVATIONS
• Lobby and conference rooms getting
new flooring
• Monday, August 15 – Friday, August 19
• Meetings and settlements should be
held in the training room

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HOMESALE PREMIER LISTING PACKAGE
● 7-Day Chalk Digital New Listing Targeted Ads on
Facebook and popular mobile apps (CNN, The Weather
Channel, ESPN and more) with seller receiving a copy
of the ad
● 2-Day New Listing & Open House Targeted
Facebook/Instagram Ad
● Online Property Listing Page
● Syndicated to 32,000+ websites
● Weekly Seller Report
● Digital Single Page Property Flyer
● YouTube Video
* * * Additional Listing Packages Available * * *
* * * Started August 1st * * *

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How to Access Company Rosters
& Phone Lists
• Click the in your company Google account
• Click on the Google Drive icon shown above
• Click ‘Shared Drives’
• Click ‘Company Rosters’
• Click ‘Company Master Roster’

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CLOZE CRM (https://youtu.be/RhrwN8_poe8)

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CLOZE CRM
Two Training Options Available
Recorded Videos at your own pace
One recording at a time to make
sure you are comfortable navigating
what you’ve learned
Virtual Training with Live Instructor
Training #1 - Overview &
Set up Expectations
Training #2 - Basic
Functionality
Training #3 - Advanced
Functionality & Additional
Details
October 11
1:00-2:00 PM
October 17
1:30-2:30 PM
October 25
1:00-2:00 PM

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QUICK BUY VIRTUAL TRAINING OPPORTUNITY
Wednesday, August
24
2:00-3:00 PM

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NEXT NINJA SELLING INSTALLATION
Dates: September 12 - 15, 2022
Location: Wyndham Garden York, 2000 Loucks Road, York, PA 17408
Cost: $750 ($100 reimbursement/transaction on new closed transactions through
September 15, 2023)
Installation Schedule:
Monday, 9/12 - check in 7:45-8:15am
Daily Attendance 8:30am - 5:30pm (lunch included)
Space limited to only 100 attendees

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WHAT DOES A RECESSION MEAN FOR
THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY?

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ARE WE IN A RECESSION?
U.S. Economy Shows Another Decline,
Fanning Recession Fears
(July 28, 2022)
Biden Faces Recession Worries After Six
Months of Economic Contraction
(July 28, 2022)
U.S. teetering on brink of recession as GDP
contracts in second quarter
(July 28, 2022)

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FOUR KEY AREAS TO EXAMINE
1. Foreclosures
2. Interest Rates
3. Buyer Demand
4. Housing Supply

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THE FORECLOSURE FRONT
1. HEADLINE: The number of active foreclosures edged up
in March by more than 7,000. This is the first YOY
increase in 10 years.
• The number of loans in active foreclosure is still way
below historic norms
• The CARES ACT drove all normal foreclosure activity to
a halt

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2. HEADLINE: More than 78,000 properties had a
foreclosure filing during the 1st quarter of 2022. This is
up 39% from the previous quarter and up 132% from a
year ago.
• Mortgage servicers are catching up on processing
loans that were already in default prior to pandemic
• Foreclosure activity is only running at 50% of the
normal level

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3. HEADLINE: Mortgage delinquencies over 90 days past
due are 70% higher than pre-pandemic levels.
• In March, mortgage delinquencies fell 12% for the
strongest single month improvement in 20 years.
• 30-day delinquencies plunged 20% from February

“
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Throughout history, during a recessionary
period, interest rates go up at the beginning of
the recession. But in order to come out of a
recession, interest rates are lowered to
stimulate the economy moving forward.
Historically, we have seen a repeated uptick in
interest rates followed by lowered interest
rates.
“

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MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES & RECESSIONS
SOURCE: Freddie Mac, Mortgage Specialists
16% to 11.8%
18% to 13%
11% to 8.8%
7.4% to 6.8%
6% to 4.9%
3.8% to 2.8%
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Recessions

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MORTGAGE RATES (January 1 – July 28, 2022)
SOURCE: Freddie Mac
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%

“
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Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates
have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points
from the peak seen during the recession to the
trough.
And in many cases, they continued to fall
after the fact as it takes some time to turn
things around even when the recession is
technically over.
“

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BUYER DEMAND
SOURCE: Offers submitted by Redfin agents
Percentage of Sellers receiving
multiple offers on their home

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BUYER DEMAND
As buyer demand moderates, the intensity of
bidding wars will ease resulting in fewer
Multiple-Offer scenarios.
April 2022
5.5 offers
May 2022
4.2 offers
June 2022
3.4 offers
SOURCE: NAR, GlobeNewsWire

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BUYER DEMAND
As buyer demand moderates, the intensity of
bidding wars will ease resulting in fewer
Multiple-Offer scenarios.
April 2022
5.5 offers
May 2022
4.2 offers
June 2022
3.4 offers
SELLERS:
Getting 3+ offers on a home
is still astounding

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BUYER DEMAND
Fewer buyers are bidding over asking price, but
it’s still a competitive market.
April 2022 May 2022 June 2022
61%
sold over
asking
55%
sold over
asking
51%
sold over
asking

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BUYER DEMAND
Fewer buyers are bidding over asking price, but
it’s still a competitive market.
April 2022 May 2022 June 2022
61%
sold over
asking
55%
sold over
asking
51%
sold over
asking
SELLERS:
Receiving offers with 50% over
asking price is unheard of

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LANCASTER COUNTY ACTIVE LISTINGS (EOM)
SOURCE: Bright MLS
Jan ‘22 Feb ‘22 Mar ‘22 Apr ‘22 May ‘22 June ‘22
0
100
200
300
400
500
#
of
Listings
242
295
324
362
387
476
+97%
since the beginning of the year

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INCREASING INVENTORY LEVELS
Housing inventory is increasing which means
more options for Buyers.
Months Supply

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INCREASING INVENTORY LEVELS
Housing inventory is increasing which means
more options for Buyers.
Months Supply
SELLERS:
They still hold the upper
hand in negotiating

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MARKET SCORECARD
1. Foreclosures
2. Interest Rates
3. Buyer Demand
4. Housing Supply
B  S 
B  S 
B  S 
B  S 




 

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Smooth seas do not
make skillful sailors
- African Proverb

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Tom Blefko
Associate Broker
REALTOR®
Director of Operations
North Pointe Office
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
Homesale Realty
Office: (717) 560-9100
Cell: (717) 587-6600
Email: tblefko@homesale.com
PRESENTER CONTACT INFO

Recession Impact on Real Estate

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