The Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) and Done Deal have launched their first Quarterly Motor Industry Review of 2015.The SIMI and Done Deal report revealed that the strong trend of recovery seen in the Motor Industry in 2014 (96,344 registrations) has continued, with new car registrations in the first three months of the year showing showing a 29.68% increase to reach 64,714.
To read further details of this report visit www.simi.ie
4. The Global Background
• US economy doing well
• UK economy doing well
• Euro Zone growing, but at very weak pace
• BRICs – 3 in difficulty
• ECB has launched quantitative easing €1.1 Tn March 2015-Sept
2016 ~ impact will be limited, but necessary step
• Some pressure on US & UK interest rates later in 2015 – no pressure
whatsoever on ECB
• Key issues in Euro Zone – Sovereign Debt, Unemployment &
Deflationary Forces
• Greek situation will fester
• Euro weakness a key theme
13. Key Economic Risks/Challenges
• Economy making real progress, but challenges remain
• Euro Zone fragility - Greece
• Government debt levels high
• High levels of Personal & SME debt
• Housing market imbalances in Dublin
• Restoring a functioning banking sector – some progress
• Personal sector still pressurised
• Wage pressures
• Political developments ~ stability/poor economic policies?
• Economy is moving in right direction
14. The Motor Industry in 2014
• New private cars registered +29.5%
• Light Commercial Vehicles +51.3%
• Heavy Goods Vehicles +14.9%
• Every county reported good growth in new car
registrations
• Costs of motoring : Year to December: Petrol -7.5%,
Diesel -9.6%, Insurance +11.6%, New Car price -2.4%
• Petrol -16.5% from peak: Diesel -16.8% from peak
• Making stronger contribution to Exchequer €965 m
+26.6%
•
15. The Motor Industry Q1 2015
• New private cars registered +29.68%
• Light Commercial Vehicles registered+58.6%
• Heavy Goods Vehicles -20.7%
• Every county reported good growth in new car
registrations
• Costs of motoring : Year to March: Petrol -10.9%, Diesel
-11.8%, Insurance +14%, New Car price -2.5%
• Petrol -19.9% from peak: Diesel -19.4% from peak; New
Car -21.3% from Peak: Insurance +19.2% past 2 years
• Making stronger contribution to Exchequer €574 m
+26.5% (VAT + VRT)
•
16. Monthly Registrations
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
21. Key Drivers of New Car Market
• Personal disposable incomes
• Personal Consumption
• Interest Rates
• Unemployment
• Population >15 Years
• Credit availability
• Car Sales in Previous Years
• One-off events e.g.: Car Scrappage
Scheme, Y2000 etc
23. Auto Market in 2015 & 2016
• 123,000 possible in 2015
• Consumer confidence strong
• Credit availability good
• Interest rates to remain very low
• Labour market improving
• Stronger consumer spending
• Limited fiscal easing in Budget 2015, more in Budget
2016
• 145,000 in 2016?
