COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 29, 2020

Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. My goal is to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R program code is
available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. The daily analysis are available at https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7rowrt2AjGpWm_frnEQ?e=KBcNbh.
You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point
out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 =
𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50%
rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures).
Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction
interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/).
2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g.,
China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu

2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual
(points)
/
Predicted
(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases
/
Day
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
Deaths on July 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

Worldwide
42,774,600
1,210,797
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Worldwide projection as of 2020-09-29
10
1,000
100,000
Cases
and
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 33,352,884 (275,891) -- Deaths: 1,001,630 (3,912) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
2020-09-29 Summary: 3

USA
8,395,762
235,074
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-09-29
Mother's
Day
Memorial
Day
July
4th
July
15,
2020
Labor
Day
10
1,000
100,000
Cases
and
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 7,148,045 (33,037) -- Deaths: 205,072 (316) -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, -1.6% Deaths
2020-09-29 Summary: 4

Western Europe
3,664,259
166,784
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and the UK (Population = 344MM)
Western Europe projection as of 2020-09-29
10
1,000
100,000
Cases
and
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 2,573,671 (68,009) -- Deaths: 159,378 (289) -- Case Mortality: 6.2% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, +0.6% Deaths
2020-09-29 Summary: 5

Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths
between US & Europe
Cases
Deaths
33,037
68,009
316
289
3
10
30
100
300
1,000
3,000
10,000
30,000
100,000
Date
Daily
Cases
and
Deaths
Location
USA (318MM)
Western Europe (344MM)
Log plot of 7 day average
Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths between US & Europe
The numbers on the right are yesterday's figures, and will differ a bit from the plotted rolling mean
2020-09-29 Summary: 6

Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble
128,587
2,524
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam (Population = 328 MM)
Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble projection as of 2020-09-29
1.0
10.0
100.0
1,000.0
Cases
and
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 110,819 (375) -- Deaths: 2,062 (13) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -1.8% Cases, -2.8% Deaths
2020-09-29 Summary: 7

Worldwide cases
USA
India
Brazil
Russia
Colombia
Peru
Spain
Mexico
Argentina
South
Africa
France
Chile
Iran
United
Kingdom
Bangladesh
Iraq
Saudi
Arabia
Turkey
Pakistan
Italy
Philippines
Germany
Indonesia
Israel
Ukraine
Canada
Ecuador
Bolivia
Romania
Morocco
Netherlands
Belgium
Dominican
Republic
Kazakhstan
Egypt
Sweden
China
Guatemala
Poland
Japan
Belarus
Honduras
Nepal
Portugal
Ethiopia
Venezuela
Czech
Republic
Nigeria
Uzbekistan
Switzerland
Algeria
Ghana
Kyrgyzstan
Austria
Azerbaijan
Paraguay
Afghanistan
Kenya
Serbia
Libya
El
Salvador
Denmark
Australia
Hungary
South
Korea
USA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
cases
to
date
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-29 Summary: 8

Worldwide cases
Israel
Chile
Peru
Brazil
USA
Spain
Colombia
Argentina
Bolivia
South
Africa
Saudi
Arabia
Dominican
Republic
Iraq
Belgium
Sweden
Honduras
Ecuador
France
Kyrgyzstan
Russia
Belarus
United
Kingdom
Kazakhstan
Switzerland
Portugal
Guatemala
Netherlands
Iran
Mexico
Czech
Republic
Paraguay
Romania
Italy
Austria
India
Libya
Denmark
Azerbaijan
Canada
Serbia
Ukraine
Turkey
El
Salvador
Germany
Morocco
Philippines
Bulgaria
Venezuela
Nepal
Hungary
Bangladesh
Poland
Uzbekistan
Ghana
Finland
Pakistan
Slovakia
Greece
Tunisia
Algeria
Jordan
Afghanistan
Tajikistan
Australia
Egypt
USA
None
1 in 200
1 in 100
1 in 67
1 in 50
1 in 40
1 in 33
1 in 29
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
cases
to
date
Worldwide cases
2020-09-29 Summary: 9

Average new cases over past 7 days
Israel
Spain
Argentina
France
Czech
Republic
Peru
Belgium
Colombia
Iraq
USA
Netherlands
Brazil
Paraguay
Libya
Chile
Denmark
United
Kingdom
Jordan
Hungary
Austria
Ecuador
Ukraine
India
Tunisia
Portugal
Honduras
Romania
Morocco
Slovakia
Switzerland
Iran
Russia
Nepal
Guatemala
Bolivia
Dominican
Republic
Canada
Mexico
Sweden
Venezuela
Poland
Greece
Belarus
Italy
South
Africa
Philippines
Bulgaria
Kyrgyzstan
Germany
El
Salvador
Turkey
Uzbekistan
Finland
Indonesia
Saudi
Arabia
Myanmar
Azerbaijan
Bangladesh
Mozambique
Serbia
Angola
Ethiopia
Tajikistan
Uganda
Zambia
USA
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,250
1 in 1,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Average
cases
/
day
Average new cases over past 7 days
2020-09-29 Summary: 10

Worldwide deaths
USA
Brazil
India
Mexico
United
Kingdom
Italy
Peru
France
Spain
Iran
Colombia
Russia
South
Africa
Argentina
Chile
Ecuador
Indonesia
Belgium
Germany
Canada
Iraq
Turkey
Bolivia
Pakistan
Netherlands
Egypt
Sweden
Philippines
Bangladesh
Romania
China
Saudi
Arabia
Ukraine
Guatemala
Poland
Honduras
Morocco
Dominican
Republic
Switzerland
Portugal
Algeria
Kazakhstan
Japan
Israel
Afghanistan
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Kyrgyzstan
Australia
Sudan
El
Salvador
Belarus
Paraguay
Bulgaria
Austria
Hungary
Serbia
Kenya
Denmark
Czech
Republic
Venezuela
Azerbaijan
Yemen
Libya
Nepal
USA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
deaths
to
date
Worldwide deaths
2020-09-29 Summary: 11

Worldwide deaths
Peru
Belgium
Bolivia
Spain
Ecuador
Chile
Brazil
United
Kingdom
Mexico
Sweden
USA
Italy
Colombia
France
Argentina
Iran
Netherlands
South
Africa
Honduras
Iraq
Canada
Switzerland
Guatemala
Dominican
Republic
Romania
Israel
Kyrgyzstan
Portugal
Saudi
Arabia
Russia
Paraguay
Denmark
El
Salvador
Germany
Bulgaria
Kazakhstan
Turkey
Serbia
Austria
Ukraine
Belarus
Libya
India
Hungary
Azerbaijan
Egypt
Finland
Poland
Morocco
Czech
Republic
Philippines
Afghanistan
Algeria
Indonesia
Australia
Pakistan
Greece
Bangladesh
Sudan
Zambia
Nicaragua
Haiti
Yemen
Venezuela
Senegal
USA
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,250
1 in 1,000
1 in 833
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
deaths
to
date
Worldwide deaths
2020-09-29 Summary: 12

Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Argentina
Israel
Colombia
Peru
Bolivia
Mexico
Brazil
Chile
Paraguay
Spain
Iran
USA
Iraq
Honduras
Romania
Libya
Ecuador
South
Africa
Czech
Republic
Ukraine
Guatemala
Morocco
Saudi
Arabia
France
Turkey
India
Russia
Hungary
Bulgaria
Netherlands
Dominican
Republic
Tunisia
Belarus
Portugal
Greece
Philippines
Poland
Indonesia
United
Kingdom
Belgium
Myanmar
Jordan
Austria
El
Salvador
Switzerland
Venezuela
Italy
Nepal
Denmark
Angola
Canada
Kazakhstan
Sweden
Bangladesh
Azerbaijan
Egypt
Australia
Algeria
Kenya
Finland
Syria
Togo
Uzbekistan
Serbia
Ethiopia
USA
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 in 100,000
1 in 83,333
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Average
deaths
/
day
Average daily deaths over past 7 days
2020-09-29 Summary: 13

Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
US
Case
Rate
Mortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
2020-09-29 Summary: 14

Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-09-29
2020-09-29 Summary: 15

Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
Percent
of
Peak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
2020-09-29 Summary: 16

Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-09-29
2020-09-29 Summary: 17

Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
Percent
of
Peak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
2020-09-29 Summary: 18

Change in cases vs. change in deaths over
last 14 days
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MN
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
ND
OH
OR
RI
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WY
-6
-3
0
3
6
-6 -3 0 3 6
Change in cases (%/day)
Change
in
deaths
(%/day)
Change in cases vs. change in deaths over last 14 days as of 2020-09-29
Size is proportional total cases per capita
2020-09-29 Summary: 19

Total US COVID-19 Cases
California
Texas
Florida
New
York
Georgia
Illinois
Arizona
North
Carolina
New
Jersey
Tennessee
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
Alabama
Ohio
South
Carolina
Virginia
Michigan
Massachusetts
Missouri
Maryland
Indiana
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Mississippi
Iowa
Washington
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Nevada
Utah
Colorado
Kentucky
Kansas
Connecticut
Nebraska
Idaho
Oregon
New
Mexico
Rhode
Island
South
Dakota
North
Dakota
Delaware
West
Virginia
District
of
Columbia
Montana
Hawaii
New
Hampshire
Alaska
Wyoming
Maine
Vermont
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
cases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.58, p governor: 0.9. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-29 Summary: 20

Louisiana
Florida
Mississippi
Alabama
Arizona
Georgia
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Iowa
North
Dakota
Arkansas
Texas
Nevada
South
Dakota
New
York
Rhode
Island
Illinois
Nebraska
New
Jersey
Idaho
Utah
District
of
Columbia
Oklahoma
Delaware
Missouri
California
Maryland
Wisconsin
Kansas
North
Carolina
Massachusetts
Indiana
Minnesota
Virginia
Connecticut
Kentucky
New
Mexico
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Montana
Washington
Alaska
Wyoming
West
Virginia
Hawaii
Oregon
New
Hampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 100
1 in 50
1 in 33
1 in 25
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
Cases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
2020-09-29 Summary: 21

Average US COVID-19 cases over the past
7 days
North
Dakota
South
Dakota
Wisconsin
Utah
Iowa
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Montana
Missouri
Idaho
Nebraska
Kansas
South
Carolina
Texas
Alabama
Wyoming
Tennessee
North
Carolina
Minnesota
Mississippi
Illinois
Kentucky
Nevada
Alaska
Indiana
Georgia
Delaware
Louisiana
Florida
West
Virginia
Colorado
Michigan
Rhode
Island
Virginia
California
New
Mexico
Ohio
Maryland
Hawaii
Washington
Pennsylvania
Oregon
Massachusetts
New
Jersey
Arizona
Connecticut
District
of
Columbia
New
York
New
Hampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 in 2,500
1 in 2,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
New
Cases
/
Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days
2020-09-29 Summary: 22

Total US COVID-19 Deaths
New
York
New
Jersey
Texas
California
Florida
Massachusetts
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Georgia
Arizona
Louisiana
Ohio
Connecticut
Maryland
Indiana
North
Carolina
South
Carolina
Virginia
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Washington
Minnesota
Missouri
Colorado
Nevada
Arkansas
Iowa
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Rhode
Island
Oklahoma
New
Mexico
Kansas
Delaware
District
of
Columbia
Oregon
Nebraska
Idaho
Utah
New
Hampshire
West
Virginia
North
Dakota
South
Dakota
Montana
Maine
Hawaii
Vermont
Alaska
Wyoming
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
Deaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
2020-09-29 Summary: 23

New
Jersey
New
York
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Louisiana
Rhode
Island
Mississippi
District
of
Columbia
Arizona
Michigan
Illinois
Georgia
Florida
Maryland
Delaware
South
Carolina
Pennsylvania
Texas
Indiana
Nevada
Alabama
Arkansas
Iowa
New
Mexico
Ohio
California
Virginia
Minnesota
Colorado
Tennessee
Missouri
North
Carolina
New
Hampshire
North
Dakota
Washington
Kentucky
Idaho
Oklahoma
South
Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Wisconsin
West
Virginia
Montana
Utah
Oregon
Maine
Hawaii
Vermont
Wyoming
Alaska
None
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,000
1 in 667
1 in 500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
Deaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
2020-09-29 Summary: 24

Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past
7 days
North
Dakota
Arkansas
Missouri
Mississippi
Florida
Georgia
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Louisiana
Rhode
Island
Arizona
North
Carolina
Iowa
Virginia
South
Dakota
Nevada
Kansas
Montana
West
Virginia
California
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Massachusetts
Alaska
Alabama
Illinois
Delaware
Indiana
New
Mexico
Kentucky
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Idaho
Minnesota
Hawaii
Washington
Michigan
Wisconsin
District
of
Columbia
Colorado
Oregon
New
Jersey
Utah
Connecticut
New
York
Maine
New
Hampshire
Vermont
Wyoming
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Deaths
/
Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days
2020-09-29 Summary: 25

Daily testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Daily
testing
from
min
to
max
Daily testing trends from min to max
Line = Friedman's supersmoother
2020-09-29 Summary: 26

Change in daily tests over past 14 days
South
Carolina
Minnesota
Colorado
Utah
Idaho
North
Carolina
New
Mexico
Ohio
Wisconsin
Kentucky
California
Wyoming
West
Virginia
Connecticut
Michigan
Oklahoma
Illinois
Montana
Texas
Arkansas
Maine
Louisiana
Missouri
Virginia
Tennessee
Washington
New
Hampshire
New
York
Kansas
Mississippi
Nebraska
New
Jersey
South
Dakota
District
of
Columbia
Iowa
Massachusetts
Indiana
Vermont
Nevada
Rhode
Island
North
Dakota
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Maryland
Oregon
Florida
Georgia
Alaska
Alabama
Arizona
Hawaii
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Change
in
daily
tests
(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Change in daily tests over past 14 days
2020-09-29 Summary: 27

Percent Tested
Alaska
New
York
District
of
Columbia
Louisiana
Connecticut
Illinois
New
Mexico
Tennessee
New
Jersey
California
Michigan
Arkansas
Massachusetts
Rhode
Island
Montana
Maine
North
Dakota
West
Virginia
Oklahoma
Delaware
Kentucky
North
Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
Maryland
Wisconsin
Vermont
Utah
Minnesota
South
Carolina
Mississippi
Florida
Washington
Iowa
Virginia
Nebraska
Alabama
Nevada
South
Dakota
Texas
Missouri
Hawaii
Indiana
Arizona
New
Hampshire
Kansas
Wyoming
Idaho
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Colorado
0
20
40
60
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Percent
Tested
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Percent Tested
2020-09-29 Summary: 28

Percent of Positive COVID Tests
Arizona
Alabama
Florida
Idaho
Mississippi
Texas
South
Dakota
South
Carolina
Nevada
Kansas
Iowa
Georgia
Nebraska
Missouri
North
Dakota
Utah
Indiana
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Maryland
Oklahoma
Rhode
Island
Louisiana
Virginia
Delaware
Minnesota
North
Carolina
Tennessee
Massachusetts
Wyoming
New
Jersey
California
Illinois
Kentucky
Oregon
Ohio
Washington
New
York
Hawaii
District
of
Columbia
Michigan
Montana
Connecticut
New
Mexico
New
Hampshire
West
Virginia
Alaska
Maine
Vermont
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Percent
of
Positive
Tests
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Percent of Positive COVID Tests
2020-09-29 Summary: 29

Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fraction
positive
from
min
to
max
Positive fraction trends from min to max
2020-09-29 Summary: 30

Change in positive tests over past 14 days
North
Dakota
Wyoming
Wisconsin
Montana
South
Dakota
Utah
Alaska
West
Virginia
Iowa
Missouri
Idaho
Kansas
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Minnesota
Oregon
Indiana
Arkansas
Hawaii
Nevada
Alabama
Colorado
North
Carolina
Delaware
Florida
Pennsylvania
New
Mexico
Tennessee
Washington
Maryland
Rhode
Island
Michigan
Vermont
Georgia
Illinois
Texas
Louisiana
Virginia
California
Arizona
Massachusetts
New
Jersey
Ohio
South
Carolina
Connecticut
New
Hampshire
New
York
District
of
Columbia
Mississippi
Kentucky
Maine
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Change
in
positive
tests
(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Change in positive tests over past 14 days
2020-09-29 Summary: 31

Change in tests vs. change in positive tests
over last 14 days
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA KS
KY
ME
MA
MN
MT
NH
NJ
NM
NC
ND
OH
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
UT
WV
-1
0
1
-5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
Change in tests (%/day)
Change
in
positive
tests
(%/day)
Change in tests vs. change in positive tests over last 14 days as of 2020-09-29
Size is proportional daily deaths per capita over the past 7 days
2020-09-29 Summary: 32

Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak
since February
Missouri
Nebraska
North
Dakota
South
Dakota
West
Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Alaska
Montana
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Kansas
Iowa
Kentucky
Utah
North
Carolina
Oregon
Idaho
Indiana
Minnesota
Virginia
Georgia
Tennessee
Ohio
Hawaii
Mississippi
Alabama
Washington
South
Carolina
Nevada
California
New
Mexico
Illinois
Rhode
Island
Texas
Louisiana
Colorado
Florida
Maine
District
of
Columbia
Maryland
Delaware
New
Hampshire
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Massachusetts
New
Jersey
Connecticut
Vermont
New
York
0
30
60
90
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Hospitalizations
(%
of
peak)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February
2020-09-29 Summary: 33

Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizations
from
min
to
max
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
2020-09-29 Summary: 34

Change in hospitalizations over past 14
days
New
Hampshire
South
Dakota
Wisconsin
Wyoming
North
Dakota
Minnesota
Oregon
Nebraska
Arkansas
Iowa
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Rhode
Island
Oklahoma
Utah
Montana
Indiana
New
York
Missouri
West
Virginia
Kansas
Alaska
Colorado
New
Mexico
District
of
Columbia
Washington
North
Carolina
Maine
Illinois
Mississippi
South
Carolina
Ohio
Alabama
Texas
New
Jersey
Kentucky
Delaware
Idaho
Maryland
Nevada
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Tennessee
Arizona
Georgia
California
Louisiana
Florida
Hawaii
Vermont
-4.0
0.0
4.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Change
in
hospitalizations
(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days
2020-09-29 Summary: 35

Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-09-29
NA = Inadequate data
2020-09-29 Summary: 36

COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 29, 2020

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COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 29, 2020