Lecture 8-03-2013

1. Project Design
Expert assessment methods

2. First… homework results

4. The Title:
The assumption
restaurant.
Kinga Klimkiewicz
Gr.Z.4.3

5. Product
• The main service of my project it:
- cooking and serving regional Polish food.
CUSTOMERS
Potential clients in my restaurant:
• Official:
- Gender: male
- Age: 40 years old
- Geography: Lublin, Poland
- Income level: 7000zł
- His opinion: „Finally, I can eat a good lunch break.”

6. Customers
• Student:
- Gender: female
- Age: 22 years old
- Geography: Lublin, Poland
- Income level: 600zł
- His opinion: „Eating like at grandma's house. Finally, something other than fast
foods.”
• Tourist:
- Gender: female
- Age: 33 years old
- Geography: Paris, France
- Income level: 3000 EUR
- Her opinion: „Cuisine differs from the French but very good.”

7. Customers
• Pensioner:
- Gender: male
- Age:70 years old
- Geography: Zamość, Poland
- income level: 2500zł
- His opinion:”It was nice to go back to the old tastes.”
• Schoolboy:
- Gender: male
- Age:13 years old
- Geography: Wrocław, Poland
- Income level: 0zł
- His opinion: „Here is boring. Missing fast foods and cola”

8. Home work for Monday
• Finish your research!!!
• Find 5 opinions
• Describe people and their opinions

9. Evaluation & choice of
alternatives

10. Decision Making Techniques:
Choosing Between Options
• Ranking
• Pairwise Comparisons
• Grid Analysis
• The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

11. Ranking
• The procedure for ordering items in ascending
(descending) preference for one or more selected
indicators to compare
• In the case of strict ranking is not allowed to point to
elements of the equivalence
• With a non-strict ranking multiple elements can
occupy the same place in the ranking and receive the
same rank
• This method is used when the number of options
n≤7±2

12. Choose the trip of your dream
By ranking
By pairwise comparisons
By grid analysis
Is there any difference?
You conclusions….

13. Pairwise Comparisons
• The procedure of determination of the preferences
by comparing all possible pairs of objects (options)
• Results of the comparison of pairs of objects
represented as a matrix
• Rank is calculating by summation of numerical
representations for paired comparisons for each
option
• If the comparison is made on various parameters or
group of experts, for each indicator or expert the
matrix of pairwise comparisons is preparing

14. Some possible types of numerical presentation
1, if ai  a j , ai ≈ a j
xij = 
 0 , if ai  a j
1, if ai  a j , 2 , if ai  a j ,
 
xij =  0.5, if ai ≈ a j xij =  1, if ai ≈ a j
 0 , if ai  a j  0 , if ai  a j
 

15. Example of results of paired comparisons on a set of
five alternatives
Options 1 2 3 4 5 ∑x
j
ij Rank
1 - 0.5 0 1 1 2.5 2
2 0.5 - 1 0.5 1 3 1
3 1 0 - 0 1 2 3
4 0 0.5 1 - 0 1.5 4
5 0 0 0 1 - 1 5

16. Median comparison
• Any two elements of the set of alternatives
are selected and ordered
• The third element is compared with the best
of the first two, and if it is worse, with the
worst, and so one find its place
• The fourth element is compared first to the
median to determine left or right semi-set to
further refine the location of the fourth
element, etc.

17. Grid Analysis
• a number of good alternatives to choose from
• many different factors to take into account
?????
• list your options as rows on a table, and the factors
you need consider as columns
• score each option/factor combination, weight this
score by the relative importance of the factor,
• add these scores up to give an overall score for each
option

18. Grid Analysis: example

19. Grid Analysis: example

20. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

22. AHP: example

26. Effects of the project
• Commercial
• Social
• Ecological
• Budgetary/economical
• ………..

27. How we can estimate the effect?
• measurement is the assignment of numbers
to objects
• direct and indirect measurements
• what to measure, how to measure

28. Scale of measurement
Formally, the scale is a set of three elements
<X,Φ,Y>, where
•X – real object
•Y – number
•Φ- mapping X on Y

29. Nominal Scale
• Simply labels objects
• Categorical data are measured on
nominal scales which merely assign
labels to distinguish categories

30. Ordinal Scale
• Numbers are used to place objects in order
• But, there is no information regarding the
differences (intervals) between points on the
scale

31. Interval Scale
• An interval scale is a scale on which equal
intervals between objects, represent equal
differences
• The interval differences are meaningful
• But, we can’t defend ratio relationships
• For example, the difference between 10 and 20
degrees is the same as between 80 and 90 degrees.
But, we can’t say that 80 degrees is twice as hot as
40 degrees. There is no ‘true’ zero, only an ‘arbitrary’
zero

32. Ratio Scale
• Have a true zero point
• Ratios are meaningful
• Physical scales of time, length and
volume are ratio scales

34. Group work
Define the main effects of your projects
(15 min)
Propose a method and a scale to evaluate
the effects (15 min)
Discuss your results (5 min)