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欧美银行暴雷后,中国银行业并非理想避风港
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欧美银行暴雷后,中国银行业并非理想避风港
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欧美银行暴雷后,中国银行业并非理想避风港 2-2 minutes ⋮
4/5/2023 中资银行不太可能被卷入美国和欧洲仍在发酵的银行业危机,但可能也算 不上最理想的投资去处。增长乏力、利润率持续下降,再加上围绕被低估 问题贷款的担忧挥之不去,都使得中资银行股更像是一个价值陷阱而非避 风港。 由于中国的金融体系基本与外部隔离且受到严格管控,硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)倒闭和瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)被贱卖所引发的相关危机尚不 会蔓延到中国银行业。根据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的数据,2022年 海外资产只占中国银行业总资产的2%左右,而且其中大部分是贷款。 额外一级资本(AT1)债券可在银行破产时用于覆盖损失,这类债券在中国 银行业整体资本中的占比约为10%。但摩根士丹利表示,这些AT1债券中 的大部分是在中国境内发行的。因此,尽管在瑞信被竞争对手瑞银(UBS) 收购的交易中,瑞信的170亿美元AT1债券被价值归零,但中国银行业的 AT1债券也不会轻易受到全球抛售的影响。 中国政府对国内金融系统实施严格管控。最大几家银行和许多最大的借款 方都是国有的,因而政府能够在必要时将损失进行分配,防止危机蔓延, 尽管代价是引发普遍的道德风险,储户和投资者的回报也往往相形逊色。 尽管如此,在全球银行业一片混乱的情况下,中资银行的股票跑赢同行也 合情合理。中资银行的估值看起来也较低。例如,根据标普全球市场财智 (S&P Global Market Intelligence)的数据,中国最大银行中国工商银行股 份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., 601398.SH, 1398.HK)股价与每股有形资产账面价值之比为0.4倍,而摩根大通公司 (JPMorgan Chase & Co., JPM)为1.8倍。
2.
不过,中资银行股票估值较低是有原因的。虽然近年来中国为国内金融系 统部分领域的资本重组付出了巨大努力,但投资者担心官方公布的不良贷 款率可能无法反映资产负债表的实际情况,估值因此被压低。 而现在,房地产的低迷可能给银行业增长和利润率带来更大压力。小型地 区性贷款机构的状况尤其薄弱,因为它们对房地产市场的风险敞口较大, 资本缓冲空间较小,吸纳传统存款的能力较弱。 不过,中国不太可能出现大规模的银行倒闭事件。2019年,中国政府允许 小型银行包商银行(Baoshang Bank)倒闭,虽然该银行规模不大,还是引 发了对流动性的争夺。当前,中国政府正完全集中精力促进经济增长,因 此不太可能允许那种情况再次发生。不过,大型银行可能仍需要为那些财 力较弱的银行提供支持。 在截至去年12月底的季度里,中国几家最大银行的利润和净利息收益率已 在下降。房贷利率下降引发了一波借款人的还贷潮,这可能会进一步削弱 经济增长。根据野村(Nomura)的数据,按贷款金额计算,2022年,用于 新房购买的新房贷在总体房贷中的占比骤降至4.1%,相比之下,之前几年 的平均占比为28%左右。野村表示,虽然房地产市场已开始反弹,但新增 房贷规模仍处于十多年来的最低水平。 中资银行可能不会遇到全球同行遇到的麻烦。但即便如此,它们仍算不上 是一个能够安然渡过这场风暴的避风港——或者说,充其量只能算是一个 水浅且浑浊的避风港。
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