The document discusses the importance of the youth vote in the 2012 election and trends showing the Republican party gaining momentum with young voters. It summarizes current polling data showing close races among youth in several states. Experts say coherence and turnout among key demographics will be more important than raw numbers. The document argues that the youth vote could decide the election and influence voters for generations, so targeted youth messaging is crucial. It presents the National Youth Association as well positioned to deliver the youth vote for a party due to its networks and understanding of youth issues.

1. War for the Youth Vote 2012
National Youth Association

2. Historical Trends (% of Population)
Washington Post

3. Historical Trends
Washington Post

4. Current Polling
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

5. Democrat (8) Republican (12)
CA-26 40 41
CA-10 49 38
CO-3 40 42
FL-8 38 39
MD-6 46 39
MO-2 34 39
NC-7 36 39
NC-11 35 44
NH-1 41 40
NH-2 38 42
NV-3 48 33
NY-3 44 35
NY-13 41 44
NY-19 49 35
OH-6 37 40
TX-23 36 51
PA-08 39 47
PA-15 45 43
VA-2 44 38
VA-10 41 42
WA-10 38 40
NYA April 2012, +/- 4, N = 540

6. Results
Takeaways on state of youth vote:
• Coherence (not numbers) is what matters
▫ Broad GOTV matters but so does racking up huge
vote gaps among defined populations.
• High salience (Apathy is not the problem)
• GOP has growing momentum with young voters
▫ Half of CAPAC attendees were college students

7. Why the Youth Vote Matters
• Could cripple the momentum among the larger
electorate or be decisive demographic for victory
• Youth messaging and targeting will determine
entire (growing) blocks of voters for future
generations
▫ “Three times for a party and you’re locked in for
life”
▫ Youth need to be the subject of direct messaging

8. Why the NYA Can Deliver
• We have the networks and the direct
connections
▫ Representation and buy-in from 100s of youth
groups and top youth leaders
• We understand the youth better than anyone
else
• We have a tested action plan and message
(“Claim Your Future”) to deliver and restore the
image to youth