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共好讀書會x 台中_賽局意識
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共好讀書會x 台中_賽局意識
1.
賽 局 意
識
2.
取得優勢策略的6種工具 創造誘因,讓對手許下承諾 引入管制,改變參賽者的利益得失
合併與共謀,增加集體利益 威脅報復,嚇阻對手行動 建立信任,贏得更多交易機會 培養關係,促成合作
3.
報酬矩陣
4.
賽局樹
5.
創造誘因,讓對手許下承諾 任何人做出承諾都 需要「先出招」 先出招,更早或 更快採取行動 減肥債券
6.
行動時機 有三個可能性 同步行動:在互不知情下做出選擇
依序行動:後動者不能事先承諾 承諾行動:後動者能事先承諾 改變行動動機的方式 改變行動的可觀察性 改動時機 強加人為的最後期限 加強後動者的承諾力量
7.
生活中的實例分享
8.
引入管制,改變參賽者的利益得失 改變參賽者的得失,給予他們誘因做不同的決 定,包括 政府
公司 父母 …
9.
策略演化 大學生招生系統的演變
10.
生活中的實例分享
11.
合併與共謀,增加集體利益 卡特爾化 參賽者合併單一實體來照顧他們的集體利益,來脫 離競爭的囚犯困境
均衡 回溯均衡:適用於有行動次序的賽局 承諾均衡:適用於有承諾行動的賽局
12.
均衡
13.
生活中的實例分享
14.
威脅報復,嚇阻對手行動 危險理論的要素 簡單和令人信服的一套邏輯
隱藏的假設 精神正常 報復能力 報復誘因
15.
航空公司拍賣
16.
生活中的實例分享
17.
建立信任,贏得更多交易機會 永遠以最正直的方式做人處事 後動者可以觀察和反應另一個參賽者的行動
後動者能夠可信地承諾他會做的反應
18.
爸爸的甜點困境
19.
生活中的實例分享
20.
培養關係 促成合作 內心渴望合作,尤其其他人合作
懲罰不合作者的力量
21.
合作最好的策略 觀察誰也知道以牙還牙 教策略網中其他人以牙還牙的優點
在確認採取以牙還牙的人上採以牙還牙
22.
生活中的實例分享
23.
逃生路徑
24.
賽局永遠可以改變
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