Lets get right to it: Where will growth in STM and scholarly publishing come from? The growth strategies of the past two decades appear to be nearing, if not a peak, at least a plateau. Site licensing and global expansion have driven growth for nearly two decades, but we have reached a point where these strategies will at best offer incremental growth in the decade to come. While publishers are producing an ever-increasing volume of content, institutional library budgets have not kept pace with the growth in global research output. This presentation explores strategies for growth in the current flat landscape of today’s STM and scholarly publishing market, including new product development, growth through mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and the reestablishment of markets for direct-to-consumer products and services.

1. Where to Find Growth
in a Crowded Market?
37th Annual Meeting of the Society for Scholarly
Publishing  Arlington, Virginia  28 May 2015

2. Three Engines of
Growth in STM &
Scholarly Publishing,
2000 – 2015
1

3. 2
1. THE SITE LICENSE
c
2

4. 3
2. THE BIG DEAL

5. 4
3. GLOBAL EXPANSION

6. END OF THE LINE?
5

8. Engines of Growth,
2015 – ?
7

9. 8
THREE PATHS TO GROWTH
1. Increase your prices
2. Sell your products to more (and
different) people
3. Sell new products and services

10. 9
THREE PATHS TO GROWTH
1. Increase your prices
2. Sell your products to more (and
different) people
3. Sell new products and services

11. 10
THREE PATHS TO GROWTH
1. Increase your prices
2. Sell your products to more (and
different) people
3. Sell new products and services

12. 11
WHAT ARE THE ENGINES OF
GROWTH FOR STM &
SCHOLARLY PUBLISHING
LOOKING FORWARD?

13. 1. RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF AN
INDIVIDUAL (“END USER”)
MARKET
c
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14. 13

15. The percentage of article readings
obtained through personal
subscriptions has been decreasing
since 1977. Articles obtained from
personal subscriptions decreased
from 60% in 1977 to 53% in 1984,
down to 35.5% by the early
1990s.This decline has continued –
only 18% of article readings in 2012
are from personal subscriptions.
“
14

20. What will your end users:
• Spend time with?
• Exchange information for?
• Pay for?

21. • Gold OA
• The funder Big Deal
• Freemium
• À la carte
• Traffic referral/recommendations
• Targeted advertising
• Analytics
2. DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
BUSINESS MODELS
c
20

24. • Data and analytics
• Digital workflow
• Author services
• Point of care/point of practice
• Decision support
• Continuing education
• Certification and test prep
• Reference
• Discovery
• Peer review
3. NEW PRODUCT
DEVELOPMENT
23

29. Common strategies:
• Increase scale
• Purchase product or “feature” to
diversify and drive growth
• Purchase smaller company to
expand faster or diversify
• Divest assets to refocus organization
and raise cash for other activities
4. MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS
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30. 29
WHAT ARE THE ENGINES OF
GROWTH FOR STM &
SCHOLARLY PUBLISHING
LOOKING FORWARD?
1. Re-establishment of an individual
(“end user”) market
2. Development of new business
models
3. New product development
4. Mergers & acquisitions

31. Michael Clarke
President, Clarke & Company
mclarke@clarke-company.com
@mtclarke