This document discusses IWMI's research on climate change impacts on water resources and livelihoods in global river basins. It outlines IWMI's use of tools like modeling, stakeholder engagement, and interventions to study issues like changes in water availability, flooding risks, and ecosystem impacts. Key areas of focus include the Mekong River basin, glacial impacts in Asia, and managing water storage and demands under climate change. IWMI advocates an integrated approach considering the water-energy-food nexus, and collaborates globally on adaptation solutions like improved water governance and productivity.
1. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources,
Ecosystems and Livelihoods in Various Global
River Basins
Fred Kizito and Vladimir Smakhtin
International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
UNFCC Technical Workshop on Water
18-20 July
1
Water for a food-secure world
3. IWMI’s Research and Climate Change
Numerous other
on-going
projects in both
Africa and SE
Asia
Water for a food-secure world
4. Climate Change Impact on Agro-ecosystems
1. Rainfall trends and patterns impact:
a) Stream flow
b) Seasonal soil moisture
c) Agricultural productivity
2. Extreme events
a) Droughts (related to rainfall)
b) Flooding (has +ves and -ves)
3. Temperature rises (associated with CC)
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5. Tools and Methods on climate change related research
Broad Climate change related Tools Outputs
IWRM Challenges impacts on and Methods
Water allocation,
communities Water balance,
Sedimentation estimates ,
- Drought: Impacts agriculture
flood vulnerability,
Water Yields - Upstream-Downstream conflicts
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Constraints - Reduced domestic water supply modeling and valuation,
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feedback on Research and
challenges action-oriented
interventions
Sedimentation/ - Siltation of reservoirs Community
- Reduced storage volume
Siltation/ - Soil erosion: Shallow soils
involvement and
Erosion - Disrupts aquatic life feedback for erosion
- Impact on water quality control, gender tools
for empowering
communities
IWRM: Integrated Water Resources Management
InVEST: Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs
ComMod: Companion Modelling (Social simulation Platform)
Wat-a-GAME: Water Game (Social simulation Platform)
WEAP: Water Evaluation and Planning
SWAT: Soil Water Assessment Tool
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6. Water Scarcity and Climate Change
1/3 of the world’s population live for basins that have to deal with water scarcity
Water in a food-secure world
7. Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change
Basins Globally
Composite Vulnerability – in terms of exposure
to CC, sensitivity and adaptive capacity Socio-economic Vulnerability – in terms of
diversity of employment, income and crops
Countries
Ratio of total Storage to Mean Annual
Drought Deficit
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8. Quantifying Impacts of CC and Development on Water
Resources: Mekong
Relative flow changes along Mekong mainstream:
Impacts: 15
WET SEASON (A2)
Pakse Kratie
+ Chiang Khan Nong Khai
Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Mukdahan
10
Wet season flow change (%)
Stung Treng
Tens of dams B2 Vientiane
Nakhon Phanom Khong Chiam 5
planned Distance from river mouth (km)
0
2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500
-5
-7+20% rain
-10
increase by _
2050 -15
-20
UPSTREAM
Climate change Development Climate change+Development
DOWNSTREAM 80
DRY SEASON (A2)
+
Chiang Khan
Nong Khai 70
Chiang Saen
Dry season flow change (%)
Luang Prabang Pakse 60
Mukdahan
Vientiane
Kratie 50
Nakhon Phanom
Khong Chiam
Stung Treng
40
30
Dams only
20
CC only (A2
10
Combined impacts Distance from river mouth (km)
0
2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500
Climate change Development Climate change+Development
Water for a food-secure world
9. Re-thinking CC Policy
P r e c ip ita tio n
Address the Energy Water Food Nexus N
E
e t c h a n g e in s o il m o is tu r e
v a p o tr a n s p ir a tio n
G ro u n d w a te r re c h a rg e
S u rfa c e R u n o ff
(a ) (b )
120
P r e -F D I: F a llo w F D I:J a tr o p h a
240 P r e -F D I: M a iz e , S o y b e a n a n d Y a m F D I:J a t r o p h a , M a iz e ,
Soybean and Yam
200
A n n u a l M o is tu r e F lu x e s (M illio n m 3 )
A n n u a l M o is tu r e F lu x e s (M illio n m 3 )
80
160
120
40 80
40
0 0
-4 0
-4 0 -8 0
-1 2 0
-1 6 0
-8 0
-2 0 0
-2 4 0
-1 2 0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
A ll Y e a r s A ll Y e a r s
Kizito et al., 2012
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11. Water Storage for CC Adaptation
Water storage is widely advocated as a key mechanism for CC
adaptation
In many countries, climate variability is high and increasing, but water
storage is low
Inability to regulate runoff by storage is a key contributor to high
levels of food insecurity and poverty
Storage systems need to be able to function across a range of CC
scenarios – due to the associated uncertainty
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12. CLIMATE CHANGE AND FLOODING: South Asia
Continuous monitoring of spatial extent of
flooding using public satellite data 2010, August, 250 m resolution
Estimating frequency and risk of flooding
with initially 250 m resolution
Estimation of GHGs emissions from
flooded areas
South Asia- first; globally – next 2010, August, Pakistan, 20m resolution
On-going efforts within IWMI on flood
forecasting in other regions
Water for a food-secure world
13. Glaciers, CC and Impacts on Water Availability:
6 Major Asian Basins
Compiling basin-wide data on glaciers
Glaciers distribution by size = sensitivity to CC
The role of seasonal snow vs role of glaciers
Evaluating critical temperatures
Water for a food-secure world
14. Ecosystem Services and the
Landscape Approach
Regulating
Land use State
Soil
Provisioning
Rainfall/
Cultural Dam Releases Transition
Siltation/
Supporting Erosion
Result
Flooding
Modified after Eco-Agriculture Partners on
behalf of the Landscapes for People, Food and
Nature Initiative, 2012
14
Water for a food-secure world
16. IWMI and Collaborating Partners:
IWMI and Collaborating Partners:
Together we can see the Horizon
Together we can see the Horizon
Research Collaborations: The challenges and opportunities raised by the
nexus of water resources and climate change require development of new
collaborations and strengthening existent partnerships
Water for a food-secure world
17. Adding water management to adaptation
and mitigation solutions for climate change
Improved
livelihoods Mitigati
on
Adaptati Manage water
on for afforestation
Ou
and reforestation
r
Pla
Transform water Address the
n et
governance Energy-Water-
Ea
Food Nexus
rth
Revisit water
storage Manage dams for Vibrant
multi-purpose use
Manage water and
demands
Measure water sustainabl
Increase water footprint e
productivity
ecosystems
Produce more Reduce food
food per unit of waste
water
Monitor water
and provide
feedback
Dual-approach: A combinationfor a food-secure worldmitigation options
Water of adaptation and
18. • Vladimir Smakhtin (IWMI, Colombo)
• Prathapar Sanmugam (IWMI, India)
• Paul Pavelic (IWMI, India)
• Luna Bharati (IWMI, Nepal)
• Giriraj Amarnath (IWMI, Colombo)
• Guillame Lacombe (IWMI, Laos)
• C.T. Hoanh (IWMI, Laos)
• K.P. Palanisami (IWMI, India)
• Matthew McCartney (IWMI-Ethiopia)
• Nishadi Eriyagama (IWMI, Colombo)
• Pay Drechsel (IWMI, Colombo)
• Liqa Rashid (IWMI, Ghana)
• Oxana Savoskul (IWMI, Colombo)
• Tushaar Shah (IWMI, India)
• IWMI CLIMATE CHANGE WEB SITE :
www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Topics/Climate_Change/default.aspx
Thank you
Water for a food-secure world
Editor's Notes
This talk is entitled: Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources, Ecosystems and Livelihoods: The case for Global River Basins
By 2050 there will be 2.5 bill more people to feed than today. The impacts of Climate Change (CC) by then may also be significant CC and many other drivers of change “work” at the same time. Complex interactions between them result in big uncertainties CC Mitigation is about GHGs; Adaptation to CC -mostly about Water Climate change effects are supposed to increase the frequency of both floods and droughts and have contrasting impacts in various river basins including semi-arid and humid agro-ecosystems. The caption on rainfall variability in the Sahel as well as increasing temperature trends are testament to this. To illustrate this further;
- IWMI has numerous on-going projects addressing impact of CC in SE Asia, Africa and South America. This caption illustrates on-going work in various river basins. - Climate change will affect all facets of society and the environment, directly and indirectly, with strong implications for water and agriculture now and in the future. - The climate is changing at an alarming rate, causing temperature rise, shifting patterns of precipitation, and more extreme events.
Most river basins e.g. Senegal, Volta and Niger Basins experience spatial and temporal climatic variability. This variability is compounded by the uncertainty resulting from global climate change whose impact seems to be well identified for temperature but remains elusive for rainfall. Rainfall trends and patterns have an impact on stream flow, seasonal soil moisture, and agricultural productivity. Rainfall patterns and the occurrence of shortages during the rainy season (e.g. temporal distribution of rainfall) remains a major challenge. Additionally, extreme events such as droughts (related to rainfall) and flooding (related to rainfall/dam releases) further complicate the variability associated with the climatic regimes. Temperature rises in the Basin have been shown to be associated with climate change.
IWMI has numerous tools and methods being used for CC related studies The conceptual framework shows some of the tools being used to assess CC related impacts on communities in some river basins such as the Volta and Nile as well as the Limpopo basin in Africa. The anticipated outcome is that the tools provide informed decision making in order to have viable recommendations that result in resilient, adaptive communities
Based on IWMI’s Comprehensive assessment, a fifth of the world’s people, more than 1.2 billion, live in areas of physical water scarcity, lacking enough water for everyone’s demands. About 1.6 billion people live in water-scarce basins, where human capacity or financial resources are likely to be insufficient to develop adequate water resources. Beyond the impacts of CC on water scarcity; numerous reasons underpin the water resources problems in global river basins: growing population pressure, lack of commitment to water and poverty, inadequate and inadequately targeted investment, insufficient human capacity, ineffective institutions, and poor governance. This therefore requires a concerted effort to mitigate CC and its associated impacts, a good entry point is sustainable water management
The point here – we evaluate vulnerability to CC at different scales and in terms of various indicators. Some 20 of indicators were used to evaluate drought pattern world wide; many of those are relevant to CC too (right maps), particularly those which are not related to hydrometeorology (top right map). We go deeper in the analysis within countries (left map) too. We completed analysis of CC impacts on agriculture in Greater Mekong Region and are currently doing a similarly comprehensive study in Nepal.
2 graphs display relative changes in seasonal flows between different scenarios. Blue illustrates changes caused by CC. Red corresponds to changes related to water infrastructure development. Green integrates changes from both climate change and water infrastructure development. The X axis localizes gauge stations along Mekong mainstream. CC causes flow increases during both wet and dry seasons. Increase is quite homogenous along the river during wet season as a result of uniform rainfall change over the basin. During the dry season, the flow increase is mainly caused by rainfall increase and snow melt in the upper catchment which explain why that flow increase slightly declines when moving downward. Impacts of water infrastructure development are in opposite directions during wet and dry seasons. And this contrast is due to the way hydropower dams are operated: filling during wet season cause flow decline observed here. Relative changes are more moderate downstream as most of dams are located in upstream mountainous areas. During dry season, massive water release to produce electricity explain the increased flows. Combined effect of both cc and development scenarios are different between 2 seasons. Wet season: flow changes are minor and ranges from -8 to +5% as climate change and development effects partly compensate each other. During dry season, both effects of cc and dvlp scenarios are additive and result in flow increases up to 70%.
Climate change policy is increasingly supporting greater reliance on bioenergy as an alternative to fossil fuel–based energy. But this is not consistently coupled with the water discussion. Work conducted by Kizito et al 2012 on Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in both Ghana and Mali indicates increased ET rates and relatively less groundwater recharge when conventional crop production is replaced by biofuels. The Comprehensive Assessment estimates that with heavy reliance on bioenergy the amount of agricultural evapotranspiration in 2050 to support increased bio-energy use will be about what is depleted for all of agriculture today. Reliance on bioenergy will further intensify competition for water and land, so awareness of the “double-edged” nature of bioenergy needs to be raised and requires re-thinking the policy on CC.
The thinking on water storage has to be re-visited: Flexible water storage options: Water storage options, from ensembles of small reservoirs to natural wetlands, are among the most practical, immediate and cost-effective responses to existing variability and climate-induced water scarcity. Soil management: Soil moisture is part of the hydrological cycle. It acts as an interface between runoff, evapotranspiration and infiltration into groundwater aquifers. Farming practices that retain the right amount of soil moisture are an important adaptation strategy. Groundwater banking: Discharge from hydropower dams to recharge aquifers helps ensure that farmers and pastoralists have sufficient and reliable supplies of water under increasingly variable and severe drought conditions. Explore IWMI’s solutions for: Water storage planning and management – wetlands – soil improvement – conservation tillage practices – groundwater management
First picture – snapshot of distribution of floods in any moment – August 2010, weekly The second one – inundation of irrigated area in Pak – green is irrigated area blue – inundation. Rice and cotton – high res around 23 meters
The bar chart represents glaciated areas, glacial numbers and ice volume for 6 major Asian basins. As indicated here, the Indus has the biggest glaciated areas and ice volume
Land-use changes and water diversions for agriculture have been major drivers of the degradation and loss of ecosystems. Greater food production has come at the expense of biodiversity and ecosystem services—regulating, supporting, provisioning, and cultural—that are often important to poor people’s livelihoods. Process is stakeholder driven Stakeholders identify key issues (based on their activities) in the landscape that impact ecosystem services Framework for biophysical-social platform linkages Livelihoods and wellbeing of many poor people are dependent on these services New ways of thinking also ought to consider the contribution or the lack thereof of built infrastructure viz avis natural landscapes
Work conducted in the Volta Basin on quantification and valuation of ecosystem services looked at the impact of erosion and sediment in the basin. Results indicate that the spatial patterns of sediment yield were higher in the northern portions of the basin. This area had a sediment yield of the range 20-60 t ha-1yr-1 which is an area with a high density of small reservoirs while the southern portion show less than 3 t ha-1yr-1 Sub-basin areas associated with net sediment losses greater than the threshold in the Basin (about 20 t ha-1yr-1) are characterized by steep slopes, poor vegetative cover and high population pressures. Assess how both erosion/sedimentation and burning relate to flooding Feedback results to multi-stakeholder platform for Policy and IWRM interventions
Strengthening of existent partnerships and forming new ones to rise to the challenge of CC is essential. Within the CGIAR; IWMI is closely working with the CRP7 :CCFAS group to address CC issues; new partnerships are welcome so as to share innovative solutions towards addressing the CC challenges.
Adding water management as a solution for adaptation to climate change: Over two decades of research and experience have convinced us that technical solutions by themselves are of no practical use to water managers or water users unless they are supported by people with power to make decisions and ensure that solutions are integrated into governance and institutional processes. IWMI’s research suggests that these listed adaptation options for agricultural and water management actions are appropriate "no regrets" responses to climate change Adding water management as a mitigation solution to climate change: There is no question that we must take steps to limit our emissions of greenhouse gases. The challenge is to create ‘no regret’ mitigation solutions that will not punish the poor or compromise our capacity to grow food, fuel and the raw materials for the thousands of domestic, industrial and cultural products that drive our economies. Any adverse impacts on water will definitely be a cause for regret. The listed mitigation options on the right stand out vividly based on IWMI’s research
This work has been as a result of input from various IWMI staff across several regions and offices as listed on this slide