1. Proof of Extraterrestrial life:
Will We Be Ready for It? Before and After Scenarios
TUTU1 - Group work
Helsinki Summer University
Autumn 2013
Jonna Lähdemäki
jonna.lahdemaki@gmail.com
Kai Timonen
kaitimonen@gmail.com

2. HELSINKI SUMMER UNIVERSITY
Open University's Future Studies
LÄHDEMÄKI, JONNA Proof of Extraterrestrial life -
TIMONEN, KAI Will We Be Ready for It? Before and After Scenarios
Groupwork Report for TUTU1 course
Future Studies
November 2013
_____________________________________________________________________
The main premise of this study is that extraterrestrial life is a fact and proof of it is only a
matter of time/resources based on recent scientific estimations.
We used environmental scanning and field anomaly relaxation methods to produce three
possible futures until 2045 when extraterrestrial life has been proven to exist a decade
earlier.
The following eight factors were chosen as the most relevant: the nature of the
extraterrestrial life, political global preparations, the finder/receiver of the proof, world's
economic situation, advance(s) in space technology, flow of information and internet,
unification of global viewpoints and living conditions on earth.
All three scenarios presented illustrate how there are no quick revolutionary changes to
life, except on individual level. Still investing time and money into science and technology
related extraterrestrial research makes sense. The common emphasis on the three scenarios
is that resourcing to research leads to good potential, even if the benefits are not obvious,
immediate or neither.
Key words: extraterrestrial life, environmental scanning, scenarios, Field Anomaly
Relaxation (FAR), SWOT analysis, global co-operation, SETI

3. Table of Contents
1 Introduction........................................................................................................................4
1.1 Motivation and Premise..............................................................................................4
1.2 Objectives and Research Questions............................................................................4
2 Current State SWOT Analysis............................................................................................5
2.1 Strengths.....................................................................................................................5
2.2 Weaknesses.................................................................................................................5
2.3 Opportunities..............................................................................................................5
2.4 Threats........................................................................................................................5
3 Environmental Scanning....................................................................................................5
3.1 Political.......................................................................................................................5
3.2 Economic....................................................................................................................6
3.3 Sociocultural...............................................................................................................6
3.4 Technological..............................................................................................................7
3.5 Environmental............................................................................................................7
3.6 Chosen Relevant Factors for Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)................................8
3.7 Comparison of Values Pair-wise for Exclusion .........................................................9
4 Scenarios..........................................................................................................................10
4.1 Scenario A - “So close, yet so far”............................................................................11
4.1.1 Summary of Scenario A in year 2045...............................................................11
4.1.2 Future Path in Scenario A.................................................................................11
4.2 Scenario B - “Life found, who cares??” FORECASTING.......................................13
4.2.1 Summary of Scenario B in year 2045...............................................................13
4.2.2 Future Path in Scenario B.................................................................................14
4.3 Scenario C - “Earth 2”..............................................................................................15
4.3.1 Summary of Scenario C in year 2045...............................................................15
4.3.2 Future Path in Scenario C.................................................................................16
5 Implications and Summary...............................................................................................17
References............................................................................................................................19

4. 1 Introduction
1.1 Motivation and Premise
Water was finally found on Mars in September by NASA's rover Curiosity (NASA 2013b).
The prestigious Nature publication's website says that even one out of three planets similar
to earth probably harbours life (Ball 2002). All the while NASA has found 167 earth-like
planets up til today according to NASA's Kepler Project's Confirmed Planets counter on
November 6th (NASA 2013a) and while the estimations of earth-like planets in our galaxy
are in the billions (W. M. Keck 2013).
Our solid belief is that based on aforementioned facts it is only matter of time and/or
resources before extraterrestrial life is scientifically proven to exist. What other conclusion
could an educated open mind draw from all that?
Thus the main premise of this study is that extraterrestrial life is a mere pending fact.
However, please note that we do not dare to make any other assumptions: not regarding its
qualities (for example intelligence or lack of it, distance to us or its accessibility, etc)
concurrency (if it still exists or only did exist at some earlier point in time) or even how it
is proven (finding, manifestation, something else). Too often the term extraterrestrial life is
reduced to hostile aliens.
We'll start with defining the objectives of this study and its research questions. Then we
will do a SWOT analysis of the research premise in the current world context. After that
we will dig deeper with environmental scanning and categorization by PESTE. Then we
will narrow down to smaller amount of relevant factors, so that we can use Field Anomaly
Relaxation method (Rhyme 1981) for projecting our scenarios of futures. After presenting
each scenario and its path to future we will end with implications and summary.
1.2 Objectives and Research Questions
The scenarios will introduce three possible futures of finding proof of extraterrestrial life.
Time spans on our scenario paths from 2014 until year 2045, where last year 2045 is 10
years after the proof was found.
Our primary goal is to help identify why and into which direction(s) to steer resources so
that humans are prepared to research and possibly benefit from situation. As such the main
target audience of this report is United Nations, because it could be currently the only
instance global and powerful enough to enforce global co-operation. The secondary
objective is also to anticipate possible reactions and identify what kind of threats or
opportunities there might rise.
With this study we attempt to shed light with few possible scenarios to the following
research questions:
1) What kind of changes can the proof on existence of extraterrestrial life create on
global and individual levels (through our persona) and what kind of consequences
and reactions might follow?
2) Where should resources be allocated in order to achieve a more preferable future
and to avoid possible threats?

5. 2 Current State SWOT Analysis
We start by analyzing with SWOT matrix what would happen in the current state of the
world if/when extraterrestrial life is somehow proven to exist. What are the strengths and
weaknesses in today's context? Are there any opportunities? What kind of threats there
might be?
2.1 Strengths
• Fortunately there is no one definitive superpower deciding on behalf of earth
citizens. Instead, couple of countries and instances are sharing the spotlight.
• Internet gives hope that information will spread quickly across most country
borders.
2.2 Weaknesses
• There seem to be no global coordination or plans relating this event.
• Economy is unstable and fluctuating.
• Racism and intolerance even amongst our own kind.
2.3 Opportunities
• Possibility to gain beneficial new knowledge of universe and everything it holds.
• Unification of mankind could happen.
2.4 Threats
• Fear of unknown might cause widespread anxiety, chaos or even riots.
• Possible benefits might cause disruptive competition or power struggles.
3 Environmental Scanning
It is a bit challenging to trying understand what can be the consequences of such
revolutionizing information that we are not the only exception in the universe, when
already the universe itself is practically incomprehensible concept to the human brain due
to its vastness. Where to compare these events or what could be used as an analogy from
history? What is the magnitude of worldview(s) being overturned? Minds blown? Or a
huge anticlimax?
Next we perform some environmental scanning in the spirit of PESTE analysis. In other
words we'll go through each category one by one (Political, Economic, Sociocultural,
Technological, Environmental) and list some trends and weak signals that provide insight
on which factors to choose for FAR (Rhyne 1981) method. Then we'll choose and
formulate the most relevant ones in to the actual FAR matrix.
3.1 Political
Sitra has listed various trends of 2013-2014 in to one comprehensive slide-set (Kiiski

6. Kataja 2013). One of the mega-trends is that EU's political system is in a state of constant
crisis, because it has been unable to renew itself and its decision making mechanisms
(Kiiski Kataja 2013, p. 4).
Another Sitra's mega-trend is about where will the power be or who will have it. Power
and rulers are shifting to different instances and non-traditional directions: institutions to
individuals, hierarchies to peers, etc. On the other hand power gets scattered in to
networks: people act over institutions. As a consequence governments' decision power will
be challenged. (Kiiski Kataja 2013, p.8.)
Willingness of governments to invest into space programs seems to be increasing (de
Selding 2010). There has been a sharp increase in the amount of nations with national
space agencies. Year 2000 there were 40 national space agencies and only nine years later
in 2009 there were about 55 space agencies. (de Selding 2010.) Also increases in the
budgets of various separate space agencies might be a weak signal. At least three out of
four agencies that are capable to do manned spaceflights (Wikipedia 2013a) are increasing
their budget's more or less: lately Russia's Roscosmos (de Selding 2013a; Wikipedia
2013c) and soon probably China National Space Administration (CNSA) (Messier 2013;
Freeman 2013), but also Europe's ESA is on steady rise (Wikipedia 2013d). Only exception
of the four is USA's NASA, but so far NASA is still a clear winner in amount of spent
dollars (Wikipedia 2013b).
The state of global co-operation is however still in bit and pieces. One of the most blatant
examples is that USA has even passed a law in March of 2013 that bans all Chinese
scientists (also those that work in US institutions) to enter a NASA building on grounds of
national security. When it was applied to a NASA's conference it was met with an uproar.
(Sample 2013.) Traditionally secretive China has however expressed some mild interest for
co-operation with other space agencies (de Selding 2013b), so maybe there is hope.
3.2 Economic
One of Sitra's mega-trends is that EU's economic system is in a state of constant crisis,
because it has been unable to renew itself and its decision making mechanisms. (Kiiski
Kataja 2013, p. 4.) Economy of Asia is strongly growing and it changes the current
economic balance. (Kiiski Kataja 2013, p.8.) So the economic system fluctuates, global
growth is not a certainty. Public debt of many western countries grows and financing
services is challenging. Alternative systems rise from marginal such as virtual currencies or
time share banks. (Kiiski Kataja 2013, p.9.)
Another kind of new currency is also in place: Data and/or Information. More and more
people have access to them across the artificial political geographical borders thanks to the
internet, which raises questions about responsibilities and rights. Possible developments
could lead to either digital freedom and innovation age or in to the society where big
brother is watching. (Kiiski Kataja 2013, p. 5.)
The Sitra trends includes also so-called super-seniors mega-trend (Kiiski Kataja 2013,
p.14.). This might be relevant in the case of the age of resources. If more capital is
managed by elders, are they as willing to invest in the future as the young? And maybe
even morally, should they be as interested as the young?
3.3 Sociocultural
When economic growth is happening in Asia as mentioned above, it is probable that it also
has some effects on sociocultural aspects. Will it bring the Eastern and the Western cultures

7. closer to each other or will competition, jealousy or something else push them further apart
and build protective walls between them?
So-called Global Connected Destiny is another Sitra-identified mega-trend. Emergent
events or shocks happen more often with unanticipated systemic and wide impacts,
because of the high complexity of the world, global inter-dependencies and vulnerabilities,
we are deeply interconnected with the world. Modern societies are short-sighted and
individualized, although efficient, but because there is no big picture they are prone to
shocks (Kiiski Kataja 2013, p. 3.)
Another mega-trend is “hyper-socialibility” that stems from locating ICT applications
(Kiiski Kataja 2013, p. 15). The trending development can be seen already in the current
netizen generation's extremists that seem to be sharing everything about themselves and
more. Will it leave less room for propaganda and censorship? Or just open new ways to
mislead people with false information as currency?
Megatrend affects on individual level are the psychological disorder diagnoses becoming
more common, such as depression and work-related conditions. New themes get
emphasized as well-being factors: belonging, social capital, available opportunities, etc.
Concept of well-being requires redefining. (Kiiski Kataja 2013, p.11.)
A weak signal could be that Russia's Aerospace Defense Troops were asked about their
capability to fight extraterrestrials and their response was that they are not ready due to too
many problems on Earth and near it (RT network 2013; Williams 2013). It could signal an
emerging interest on preparing for contact of (hostile) extraterrestrial life, but at the same
time it is a clear indicator that humans have enough problems among themselves.
3.4 Technological
Robotisation is one of Sitra's mega-trends. (Kiiski Kataja 2013, p. 15.) It is easy to foresee
that technology area opening also new applications for space exploration.
Also given that most of the world seems to be investing more to their own space agencies
than earlier, it would be plausible to expect at least some return on invest in the form of
technological advances.
Biggest obstacle in space travel has always been the enormous distances between stars. In
1994 physicist Miguel Alcubierre came up with a theoretical concept of faster than light
(FTL) drive, but in further calculations he deemed it impossible in practice, because of the
amount of energy required. However, in his recent work on the subject by NASA's
propulsion researcher Harold White has managed to decrease the energy requirements by
many orders of magnitude. (Moskowitz 2012.) This could be a weak signal of overcoming
traditional limitations with out-of-the-box thinking. Things that have been thought to be
proven impossible are reproved as possible after all. Science fiction imitates science and
also vice versa! Imagination really might the only limit.
3.5 Environmental
In Sitra's list there three environmental unfavorable megatrends that are clearly threats to
the core well-being on Earth. The first one is the increasing population that will require
double the available resources the Earth has to offer by year 2030 which will lead to
various conflicts (Kiiski Kataja 2013, p. 6).
The second is the continuing polarization in the use of energy resources. Renewable energy
usage is growing too slowly. Different countries, even western countries, are in different

8. stages on the amount of relative renewable energy usage. (Kiiski Kataja 2013, p.10.)
Global warming cannot be avoided with current course of action. Climate on Earth will
warm 4-6 degrees of Celsius forcing settlers of certain areas to become climate refugees.
Also the seasons will not stay the same, for example snow will be shorter periods and in
smaller areas. (Kiiski Kataja 2013, p. 12)
3.6 Chosen Relevant Factors for Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)
Out of environmental scanning we settled to project the future paths and scenarios on the
following eight chosen factors. Their relevancy will be discussed next one by one, before
presenting the actual FAR matrix constructed with them and their possible values at the
end of this chapter.
The nature of the extraterrestrial life seems to be the primary factor, because all other
values are mirrored on it. Is it contemporary to us or is it only a relic of extraterrestrial life?
Is it intelligent or sentient or is it more similar to a plant, not aware and not feeling
emotions? All four combinations of these pairs define the impact of proof differently,
because they define for example if there will ever be a possibility for any sensible
communication with the said ET life.
Political global preparations naturally will affect the scale and type of impact. Is there too
much room for chaos or are there global plans how to keep the situation and effects in
control, for example a communication plan how to publish the proof to the people?
The finder/receiver of the proof is significant because traditionally major discoveries have
risen ownership questions. For example can the finder keep all possible benefits to self or
is there some moral duty to share? Also it affects the probabilities of censorship, secrecy
and propaganda, because some nations have more such policies, at least in their history if
not still today.
World's economic situation can affect just about everything, whether it is stable, ascending
or descending and especially if it is collapsing.
Advances in (space) technology have an impact on how close the extraterrestrial life is
perceived to be and how readily we are to notice it and to reach or communicate with it.
Flow of information and internet effects clearly transparency and communication issues,
what kind of (mis)information is spread how fast and to whom. Can the proof be kept a
secret even for a while by some party? Is there a basis for meaningful dialog and
exchanging of thoughts among individuals?
Unification of global viewpoints implies what kind of or how profound global co-operation
can arise. Steps towards a homogeneous worldview might be required for reaching a
preferable future or at least they would simplify reaching it. If worldviews are very
polarized and competing, it is more difficult to establish a common ground.
Living conditions on Earth is similar to economics: it affects the resources to find or handle
or react, when there will be a proof of extraterrestrial life. For example in the midst of
overpopulation, natural disasters, pollution, global warming, scarcity of energy resources
or lack of food may either force to focus only on imminent terrestrial issues or on the other
hand to search extraterrestrial solutions.

9. Table 1. Matrix of chosen relevant factors and their values in the context of how
proof of extraterrestrial life will impact
3.7 Comparison of Values Pair-wise for Exclusion
In order to reduce the vast amount of possible futures to continue building scenarios on, we
compared the all the factors' values pair-wise, so that more infeasible combinations could
be recognized and excluded. It is noteworthy that due the method policy, only one value
(A, B, C or D) per each factor row (1 to 8) can exist at the same time.
We were also able to eliminate some other value pairs that seemed to be excluding each
others. Those are shown in the following picture and exclusion reasons are clarified a bit
after it.
PESTE
A B C D
1
P 2
P 3 Not much preparations
Ec 4 Ascending Stable Descending Collapsed
T 5 Not much developments Some advances Significant advances
S, P 6 No big changes Free access for all
S 7
En 8 Improving Getting w orse
Chosen Relevant
Factors
Nature of the ET
life
Unintelligent / not
sentient and historical
Unintelligent / not
sentient and existing
Intelligent / sentient and
historical
Intelligent / sentient and
existing
Who finds /
receives the
proof first?
Super pow er (USA,
China, Russia, etc.)
International co-
operation
Smaller unanticipated
group
Everyone at the same
time
Political global
preparations
Global plans and
preparations
Only several country-
level separate plans
and preparations
World's
economic
situation
Advances in
(space)
technology
Scientific
breakthrough(s)
Flow of
information and
internet
More censorship and/or
propaganda
Higher and faster
availability of
information
Unification of
global view points
Tow ards a
homogeneous global
w orldview
Competing w orldview s
get more polarized
Many w orldview s, no
shared global view or
clear majority
w orldview
Living conditions
On Earth
Similar, some things
improve, some get
w orse

10. Table 2. Pairwise comparison of values. Black means that the two values rule out
each other.
If the finder/receiver of the proof of extraterrestrial life is international co-operation (2B),
it is unlikely that such co-operation would be possible if there are only several country-
level separate plans and preparation (3B) or not much preparations (3C) anywhere.
If there are politically agreed global plans and preparations (3A) in place, it rules out that
economy has collapsed (4D). Also there cannot be more censorship and/or propaganda
(6A), because that would obstruct the information flow needed for global planning. If
competing worldviews get more polarized (7B) it is also likely to diminish trust and
sharing required for global plans and preparations. If living conditions on Earth are getting
worse (8C) it most likely means, that terrestrial life issues get prioritized over
extraterrestrial life and there are no resources left for political global plans and
preparations.
If perceived living conditions on Earth are improving (8A) from current level, it is difficult
to imagine that could have been reached while the economy collapsed (4D) or while the
flow of information in the internet had subjected to more censorship and/or propaganda
(6A), because both economic resources and open communication are pretty much required
basis for solving problems in the magnitude of the whole environment.
4 Scenarios
We are aiming to present three possible, logical and interesting scenarios. We used
forecasting for creating the first two scenarios and backcasting for the third scenario.
In the following future path tables the global events are on the left side. In the right side
column we examine the global events from the view point of our persona, named Pasi. Pasi
was born 1999 in Finland's rural area. Pasi spent his childhood on an organic farm because
his parents were environmentally conscious in the nineties and then realized there is a nice
livelihood with European Union's subsidies.
2A 2B 2C 2D 3A 3B 3C 4A 4B 4C 4D 5A 5B 5C 5D 6A 6B 6C 6D 7A 7B 7C 8A 8B 8C
1A
1B
1C
1D
2A
2B
2C
2D
3A
3B
3C
4A
4B
4C
4D
5A
5B
5C
5D
6A
6B
6C
6D
7A
7B
7C

11. 4.1 Scenario A - “So close, yet so far”
4.1.1 Summary of Scenario A in year 2045
Things have progressed pretty well for the world. Wikileaks triggered a spark for
extraterrestrial life policies. After SETI registered a suspicious signal (that was not
unfortunately heard again), people started to look towards the sky.
After lengthy political negotiations among governments, the Global Space Agency (GSA)
was founded and has guided since resourcing and scientific co-operation towards finding
extraterrestrial life. Overall space started to become a trendy research area and nations
began to discuss the need for further co-operation relating the plans and preparations for
finding extraterrestrial life. As a result, global StarWatch-program was launched to
continue SETI's efforts with better equipment and resources.
The investments and resourcing towards space did produce results too: the suspiciously
intelligent sounding signal was heard again. This time its origins can be located close to a
distant star in almost 2000 light-years away and the intelligence of the source is a fact.
The world is excited: now it is certain, we are definitely not alone in the universe!
Making the first contact is not yet possible for maybe generations, but its perceived later
certainty draws people towards science studies. Companies are motivated to invest further
into space and other technological innovations in hopes of making first our own solar
systems resources available and then possibly neighboring galaxies.
Humanity is on its way to establishing first contact, even though it might still take a couple
of generations of time.
Table 3. Values of factors in scenario A.
4.1.2 Future Path in Scenario A
2014 – Two decades before
Wikileaks publishes details that confirm that
USA has had a policy what to do on alien
contact at least from the 1970s.
15 year old Pasi participates in to the after-
leakage discussion on the necessity of first
contact policies by trolling crudely all
parties.
A year later Russia “leaks” similar Pasi posts Putin vs Aliens memes to 4chan.
Factor Value in Scenario A
Nature of the ET life 1D Intelligent / sentient and existing
Who finds/receives the proof first? 2B International co-operation
Political global preparations 3A Global plans and preparations
World's economic situation 4A Ascending
Advances in (space) technology 5B Some advances
Flow of information and internet 6B No big changes
Unification of global viewpoints 7C
Living conditions on Earth 8B Similar, some things improve, some get worse
Many worldviews, no shared global view or
clear majority worldview

12. documents signed by Putin.
SETI registers a signal that's intensity and
length differ from the background noise
significantly. The signal however is not
heard again.
In the wake of the signal publication Pasi
reconsiders his slightly spiritual worldview
that used to be based on the nice group
spirit of Lutheran Confirmation Camp 2,5
ago where he found some consolation to his
teen angst and fell in love for the first time.
2024 – A decade before
Global Space Agency (GSA) is formed to
advance space exploration and monitoring
via resourcing and scientific co-operation.
25 years old Pasi is looking for work where
he could carry out the mandatory practical
training of his master's degree in
mathematical signal processing and a
trainee-ship at GSA would be his dream
come true. Unfortunately popular GSA has
millions of applicants and only doctorate
level candidates become chosen. Pasi ends
up as a trainee to Google with a decent
salary for a student.
Discussions on need for global plans and
preparations what should be done if or when
extraterrestrial life is found.
As a Googlean analyst Pasi gets to join the
First Contact Global Policy working group
as one of the virtual members.
2034 – A year before
Global StarWatch-program starts
monitoring the space for signs of
intelligence via satellites on orbit that offers
more space coverage in more detail.
Based on his studies and experience as a
analyst, Pasi (35 years) reaches his dream to
work for GSA as a signal analyst for the
new StarWatch-program.
2035 – Extraterrestrial life confirmed
Couple months after the start of StarWatch-
program the signal heard by SETI is
reregistered and its origins pinpointed.
Further analysis on its complexity confirms
that the source inevitably must be
intelligent. But unfortunately it was sent
from distance of 1947 light-years.
Pasi is ecstatic about the discovery like the
rest of the world. His only annoyance is that
it didn't happen during his shift but right
after it for his colleague. His professional
excitement is not diminished even though
he realizes there can be no actual dialog
during his lifetime with the intelligent
extraterrestrials due to limitations of current
technologies.
2045 – After a decade
Science is in fashion! The highest climbers
in the popularity of research fields in the
world are theoretical physics, mathematical
communications and space engineering.
Companies are hoping to reach for example
the holy grail of warp drive, so funding for
research flows pretty well.
Pasi is proud of his son who just got
accepted into a prestigious Junior Space
Cadet School. Humanity starts reaching for
other intelligent beings of the universe with
baby steps, first by colonizing planets in our
own solar system

13. 4.2 Scenario B - “Life found, who cares??”
4.2.1 Summary of Scenario B in year 2045
As the climate change progressed, natural disasters started to occur more frequently. On a
positive note economic turmoils have been somewhat soothed by regulatory measures by
the United Nations and the World Bank bringing economic stability.
Slightly but steadily improving economy made it possible for NASA to launch it's third
rover mission to Mars, called Retriever. Internet has been opened even more, there is now
free access to all nations' citizens, which meant the world was following on live stream the
preliminary analysis of samples at Mars. The world held its collective breath as the
samples with promising results were retrieved to Earth for further conclusive studies. As a
conclusion bacteria was found from the Mars Retriever samples, so extraterrestrial life
became concrete reality, again online via the internet.
Mankind went crazy. Several branches of major religions vanish and at least as many new
ones suddenly appeared instead. Catholic church and Islam imams declare in their
statements, respectively, that in fact their holy books already included this revolutionary
concept of life on other planets and that we simply did not interpret it right before.
Astrobiology as a branch of science got a lot of aspiring new students and funding, both
from public and private sectors. The thought of not being the only spot in the universe with
life exhilarates and unites mankind with earthling pride.
Unfortunately exhilaration fades away, when the alien bacteria proves to be less than
intriguing. Its uses water as an energy source producing hydrogen and oxygen as
byproducts and is incredibly resilient. Its only purpose is to multiply itself, quite similarly
to terrestrial bacteria. Nothing as exciting as the starlets in the tabloids seems to be a
popular opinion.
The more conscientious type of minority returns their focus on Earth's environmental
problems. However before the bubble of astrobiology bursts totally, some beneficial results
emerge: the increased research interest in microbiology combined with information on the
Mars bacteria produces a new type of viable bacteria that binds carbon monoxide to the
ground, which brings some relief to the Earth's climate change. Also due to more
homogeneous worldview international pacts can be agreed upon to bring emissions levels
down.
Table 4. Values of factors in scenario B.
Factor Value in Scenario B
Nature of the ET life 1B Unintelligent / not sentient and existing
Who finds/receives the proof first? 2A Super power (USA, China, Russia, etc.)
Political global preparations 3B
World's economic situation 4B Stable
Advances in (space) technology 5C Significant advances
Flow of information and internet 6D Free access for all
Unification of global viewpoints 7A Towards a homogeneous global worldview
Living conditions on Earth 8C Getting worse
Only several country-level separate plans and
preparations

14. 4.2.2 Future Path in Scenario B
2014 – Two decades before
India's Mars Orbiter Mission reaches its
destination and finds evidence of methane
gas concentrations that could mean
underground life.
At the age of 15 Pasi has made up his mind
about participating in family business of
organic farming, he will some day take it
over, even though world is full of interesting
choices.
Hurricanes wreak havoc again on US
coastline.
Pasi is relieved that hurricanes are not a
threat to his parents' farm and loved ones in
Finland.
NASA starts to plan its third rover mission,
called the Retriever that will drill deep and
bring back samples from Mars.
Organic farming is the most obvious and the
easiest choice to Pasi as he applies to
school. He starts to indulge in the activities
of student life and notices his social
conscious awakening.
2024 – A decade before
Historic milestone is reached: over half of
Chinese people have now access to
uncensored internet thanks to new efficient
innovations in satellite technology and ad
hoc cryptography.
Pasi graduates with a farming degree from
university of applied sciences. As a hobby
Pasi has been participating passionately in a
movement with the purpose of providing
people in third world countries with solar
panel powered satellite internet equipment.
Advances in drilling technologies and
improving economy enable NASA to set the
launch date of the Retriever to early next
decade.
Constantly changing weather threatens
crops on a regular basis, so Pasi is forced to
introduce more efficient, modern farming
practises to their family business.
2034 – A year before
Retriever with a wide set of promising
ground samples begins its journey back to
Earth.
Like the rest of the world, also Pasi held his
breath while watching the online stream of
the first analysis of samples in Mars. He
really can't wait for the return of the
Retriever so that he can watch also the
further studies in US laboratories.
At 35 Pasi has taken over the family
business and is making a comfortable living
from organic farming, but he feels that this
line of work does not satisfy him
completely.
2035 – Extraterrestrial life confirmed
Lo and behold! Bacteria is found from the
samples, extraterrestrial life is reality.
Several box office movies are pushed out in
mere months and audiences, also Pasi, eat
them up, except the one starring, directed
and produced by Kevin Costner.
Mankind goes crazy.
Several branches of major religions vanish
and at least as many suddenly appear.
Since obviously nothing is the same ever
again Pasi pursues his new dream of helping
people with mental problems. He goes back

15. Catholic church and leading muslim Imams
issue statements that these findings of
extraterrestrial life are perfectly aligned
with their holy books if one just interprets
them correctly and claiming otherwise is
hate speech and persecution.
Certain fields of science become popular,
for example astrobiology is flooded with
aspiring new students and funding, both
public and private.
to school for a degree in psychology and
plans to turn their farm into a care farm for
people with mental health issues, where the
farming tasks are part of the therapy.
The thought of not being the only spot in
the universe with life unites mankind with
earthling pride.
Nowadays Pasi identifies himself as an
Earthling foremost and only secondly a
Finn.
2045 – After a decade
To everyone’s disappointment the alien
bacteria proves to be less than intriguing,
besides being incredibly resilient, only
breaking water down to hydrogen and
oxygen for it's sustenance and reproducing
slowly, quite similar to bacteria found
beneath Earth's crust. The world turns it's
attention to the outrageous antics of former
American sweetheart Cyley Mirus again,
what will she come up with next?!
Pasi is a mental health professional and
living a full life. Mental care farm was not
profitable, but he has a more typical practice
now. His specialty is people obsessing over
celebrities at the expense of their own lives
The increased research efforts in
microbiology produces a viable bacteria that
binds carbon monoxide to the ground,
which brings some relief to the climate
change. Also international pacts are created
to bring emissions levels down.
4.3 Scenario C - “Earth 2”
4.3.1 Summary of Scenario C in year 2045
Population has kept increasing too much for Earth to sustain everyone. Humankind
continues to gaze into the stars and with probing the sky with successors of NASA's Kepler
project a proof of extinct extraterrestrial life is found on an earth-like planet. The news is
big: we weren't alone.
Rampantly-closing climate change caused massive human and material losses which called
for everybody to act in mutual interest of survival. United Nations has created a campaign
for Mutually Assured Survival instead of Mutually Assured Destruction. EU quickly
follows suit, while super powers pledge more carefully to support for the common cause. A
new era of global co-operation is taking its first steps.
Clean and affordable energy was realized to be the most important thing for continued
survival and progress, so forcibly massive funding was poured into international efforts to
explore alternative power sources. Free sharing of all the research data was made available

16. for anyone to check and brainstorming ensued on global scale like never before. Nowadays
public forums debate amongst themselves and although it is crude and biased in many
cases peer-reviewing has become the new default in all discourses, even outside the
scientific circles. Mostly it is the result of campaigns such as "To admit Wrong is to find
Right" that conveyed the idea of being wrong is not something to be ashamed, but instead
an opportunity to have one's ideas tested and, ultimately, that is the only way to better
yourself and currently actually the definitive test of courage and character. Finally,
scientific elite can join forces with the vast layman potential all over the world via tiers of
forums filtered and tested insights and suggestions.
Advances in controlled nuclear fusion have happened in strides and thus it is now readily
available to replace fossil fuels as the primary source of power that offers delay to the
already imminent destruction of Earth's biosphere that is only a matter of time.
Using antimatter as fuel the Alcubierre Drive (named accordingly to the original warp
drive theorist Miguel Alcubierre) has become viable on theory level and as such holds
great promises to traveling much further than ever before. The planet where the proof of
extraterrestrial life was seen, is proving to be even more important for us and our
existence: it is the prospect of colonization. Against the gloom outlook of future of Earth
maybe the mankind is still to persist, on another planet.
Table 5. Values of factors in scenario C.
4.3.2 Future Path in Scenario C
2045 – A decade after the proof
The Alcubierre Drive theory seems to offer
practical solutions for manned flights.
Public and business sector is very interested
to pour in money for creating prototypes.
New hope fills the mankind as everyone has
a shared common goal, to fight for the
continuation of humankind.
To everyone's surprise the planet where
proof of extinct extraterrestrial life was
seen, seems to be a very good candidate for
colonization.
Pasi spends his every waking moment
immersing himself into designing a power
source reliable enough for manned flights
and efficient enough to enable future
massive colonization ships.
Population has grown over 9 billion and
Earth's habitability is getting irreversibly
worse due to climate change and pollution.
All of mankind is drafted in desperate
measures to preserve the remaining
habitability in megacities.
2035 – Extraterrestrial life confirmed
Factor Value in Scenario C
Nature of the ET life 1D Unintelligent / not sentient and historical
Who finds/receives the proof first? 2B Super power (USA, China, Russia, etc.)
Political global preparations 3A Global plans and preparations
World's economic situation 4A Ascending
Advances in (space) technology 5B Scientific breakthrough(s)
Flow of information and internet 6B Higher and faster availability of information
Unification of global viewpoints 7C Towards a homogeneous global worldview
Living conditions on Earth 8B Getting worse

17. Proof of extraterrestrial but currently extinct
life is found.
Pasi is invited to join a global think tank to
brainstorm any and all ideas options
possibilities to the impossible equation of
increasing population and decreasing living
conditions on Earth.
Living conditions on Earth seem to be
getting extra time when controlled nuclear
fusion starts to replace the use of fossil
fuels.
Pasi is working hard as the head of
operations in a company providing
assistance for third world countries taking
their first steps in the fusion energy era.
2034 – A year before
By a successor to NASA's Kepler project,
an unmanned explorer prototype using
exponentially faster Alcubierre Drive is
launched towards an interesting planet.
Pasi feels immense pride for his minor
participation in the designing of Alcubierre
Drive prototypes antimatter power source.
2024 – A decade before
"To admit Wrong is to find Right" campaign
proves to be a success and changes the way
people analyze.
Pasi is flabbergasted to find himself in the
midst of scientific discourse about the
physics behind fusion reaction and other
revolutionary alternative concepts. To think
that it was only a hobby for him in the
beginning and has no formal education on
the matter, it just feels awesome.
Massive funding assigned towards
renewable energy source research.
Pasi lands a job in one of his favorite
organisations promoting renewable energy
sources.
2014 – Two decades before
Mutually Assured Survival -campaign is
launched due to worsening climate change.
Pasi becomes a passionate active for
different relief programs, doing all sorts of
things from collecting donations to
contributing his time for organizing rallies
and other events.
Tsunamis, hurricanes and earthquakes claim
the lives of millions and cause untold
material damage.
Pasi grieves as his best friend along with his
whole family's lives were taken by a
disastrous hurricane while they were on
holiday in the US.
5 Implications and Summary
All three scenarios presented illustrate how there are no quick revolutionary changes to
life, except on individual level. The press will try to sell as much as possible and the idea
might excite, but most likely everyday life will still continue the same here on earth.
This is not to say however, that resourcing to science and technology and plans and
preparations would not be beneficial. Quite the opposite: all three scenarios attempt to
highlight the benefits of them.
The scenario A “So close, yet so far” emphasizes the perseverance: although actual dialog

18. could not be achieved right away, all will still be basis for the future. These things are
bound to not happen and change the everyday life overnight. Still it is worth investing the
resources, because otherwise the probability of return on invest is worse or will take
possibly a lot longer time to realize. It's a long-term relationship, we should stay patient.
In scenario B “Life found, who cares??” the main idea is that there are benefits in the
byproducts of investing to the subject, even though the concept of extraterrestrial life itself
might not be that revolutionary for everyone's everyday life in long term. In our scenario
there are many other positive developments that should also be noted, not just the found
extraterrestrial life that got boring so fast. For example the unification of the world can be
a really powerful tool to reach any great things. In addition thinking from an
extraterrestrial (out-of-the-box) viewpoint about current problems can produce terrestrial
(in-the-box) solutions.
Scenario C “Earth 2” expresses the notion that solutions might rise from unexpected
directions. For example the advances in communication can make it possible for everyone
to take part and offer their unique input to the discourse. Nobody's knowledge decreases
from sharing, instead everyone gains more. Even the most desperate situations might have
surprise solutions.
The common emphasis on the three scenarios is that resourcing to research leads to good
potential, even if the benefits are not obvious and/or immediate. Proper science is never a
waste.

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