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Housing Market Charts – October 2011
TREB MLS® Sales
    Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
     12,000                                                   2008      2009      2010      2011
     10,000
      8,000
      6,000
      4,000
      2,000
            0




    Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales for the current year and the previous three years. The
recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
TREB MLS® New Listings
    Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
    25,000
                                                        2008       2009       2010       2011
    20,000

    15,000

    10,000

      5,000

           0




    Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings for the current year and the previous three
years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each
month.
TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
     Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
      1.10                                                             2008        2009        2010       2011
      1.00
      0.90
      0.80
      0.70
      0.60
      0.50
      0.40
      0.30
      0.20
      0.10
      0.00




     Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous
three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
When the SNLR moves higher, annual average price growth generally increases – often at a rate well above inflation.
When the SNLR moves lower, annual average price growth generally declines and can become negative.
TREB MLS® Average Resale Home Price
    Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
    $500,000                                              2008      2009       2010      2011
    $480,000
    $460,000
    $440,000
    $420,000
    $400,000
    $380,000
    $360,000
    $340,000
    $320,000
    $300,000




    Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® average home price for the current year and the
previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous
years for each month.
TREB MLS® Sales
     Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
     12,000

     10,000             Actual MLS® Sales     Trend (12-Month Moving Average)



       8,000

       6,000

       4,000

       2,000



    Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales since January 1995. The blue line shows actual sales. The brown
line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other
irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend.
TREB MLS® New Listings
     Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
     22,000
                                   Actual MLS® New Listings
     20,000
     18,000                        Trend (12-Month Moving Average)
     16,000
     14,000
     12,000
     10,000
      8,000
      6,000
      4,000
      2,000



     Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings.
The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other
irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.
TREB MLS® Average Price
     Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
     525,000
                                   Actual MLS® Average Price
     475,000
                                   Trend (12-Month Moving Average)
     425,000
     375,000
     325,000
     275,000
     225,000
     175,000



     Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® average price since January 1995. The blue line shows the actual average
price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or
other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the
trend.
TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to
     Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home Price




                                                                                                             Average Price Annual Per Cent Change
                                   1.20                                                               25%
     Sales-to-New Listings Ratio




                                   1.00                                                               20%
                                                                                                      15%




                                                                                                                         (Brown Line)
                                   0.80
             (Blue Line)




                                                                                                      10%
                                   0.60                                                               5%
                                   0.40                                                               0%
                                          Sales-to-New Listings Ratio                                 -5%
                                   0.20                                                               -10%
                                          Average Price Annual Per Cent Change
                                   0.00                                                               -15%



     Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per
cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in
home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change
in home prices generally trends lower.
TREB Affordability Indicator
               Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest,
               Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home

                55%
                50%
                45%

                40%

                35%

                30%

                25%



               Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada
Explanation: This chart plots the share of average household income that goes toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities
for the average priced home in the GTA subject to the following assumptions:

1.   Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB
2.   20 per cent down payment
3.   Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization
4.   Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending
5.   Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index
6.   Average household income reported by the Census of Canada. Years in between Censuses estimated using interpolation (years up to 2005) or annual growth in average weekly earnings reported by
     Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey (2006 onward).

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Treb housing market_charts-october_2011[1]

  • 1. Housing Market Charts – October 2011
  • 2. TREB MLS® Sales Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison 12,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
  • 3. TREB MLS® New Listings Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison 25,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
  • 4. TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison 1.10 2008 2009 2010 2011 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month. When the SNLR moves higher, annual average price growth generally increases – often at a rate well above inflation. When the SNLR moves lower, annual average price growth generally declines and can become negative.
  • 5. TREB MLS® Average Resale Home Price Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison $500,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 $480,000 $460,000 $440,000 $420,000 $400,000 $380,000 $360,000 $340,000 $320,000 $300,000 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® average home price for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
  • 6. TREB MLS® Sales Monthly Time Series with Trend Line 12,000 10,000 Actual MLS® Sales Trend (12-Month Moving Average) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales since January 1995. The blue line shows actual sales. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend.
  • 7. TREB MLS® New Listings Monthly Time Series with Trend Line 22,000 Actual MLS® New Listings 20,000 18,000 Trend (12-Month Moving Average) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.
  • 8. TREB MLS® Average Price Monthly Time Series with Trend Line 525,000 Actual MLS® Average Price 475,000 Trend (12-Month Moving Average) 425,000 375,000 325,000 275,000 225,000 175,000 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® average price since January 1995. The blue line shows the actual average price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the trend.
  • 9. TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home Price Average Price Annual Per Cent Change 1.20 25% Sales-to-New Listings Ratio 1.00 20% 15% (Brown Line) 0.80 (Blue Line) 10% 0.60 5% 0.40 0% Sales-to-New Listings Ratio -5% 0.20 -10% Average Price Annual Per Cent Change 0.00 -15% Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends lower.
  • 10. TREB Affordability Indicator Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest, Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada Explanation: This chart plots the share of average household income that goes toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities for the average priced home in the GTA subject to the following assumptions: 1. Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB 2. 20 per cent down payment 3. Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization 4. Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending 5. Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index 6. Average household income reported by the Census of Canada. Years in between Censuses estimated using interpolation (years up to 2005) or annual growth in average weekly earnings reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey (2006 onward).