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Housing Market Charts – March 2013
TorontoMLS Sales
     Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
     12,000                                                 2010      2011      2012      2013
     10,000
       8,000
       6,000
       4,000
       2,000
            0




     Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales for the current year and the previous three years. The
recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
TorontoMLS New Listings
     Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
     25,000
                                                        2010       2011      2012       2013
     20,000

     15,000

     10,000

      5,000

           0




     Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings for the current year and the previous three
years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each
month.
TorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
      Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
      1.10                                                           2010        2011        2012       2013
      1.00
      0.90
      0.80
      0.70
      0.60
      0.50
      0.40
      0.30
      0.20
      0.10
      0.00




      Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous
three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
When the SNLR moves higher, annual average price growth generally increases – often at a rate well above inflation.
When the SNLR moves lower, annual average price growth generally declines and can become negative.
TorontoMLS Average Resale Home Price
     Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
    $550,000                                             2010      2011      2012       2013

    $500,000

    $450,000

    $400,000

    $350,000

    $300,000




     Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® average home price for the current year and the
previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous
years for each month.
TorontoMLS Sales
     Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
     12,000
                           Actual MLS® Sales
     10,000
                           Trend (12-Month Moving Average)
       8,000

       6,000

       4,000

       2,000



    Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales since January 1995. The blue line shows actual sales. The brown
line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other
irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend.
TorontoMLS New Listings
     Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
     22,000
                                Actual MLS® New Listings
     20,000
     18,000                     Trend (12-Month Moving Average)
     16,000
     14,000
     12,000
     10,000
      8,000
      6,000
      4,000
      2,000



     Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings.
The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other
irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.
TorontoMLS Average Price
     Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
     575,000
                                Actual MLS® Average Price
     525,000
     475,000                    Trend (12-Month Moving Average)

     425,000
     375,000
     325,000
     275,000
     225,000
     175,000



     Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® average price since January 1995. The blue line shows the actual average
price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or
other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the
trend.
TorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to
     Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home Price




                                                                                                             Average Price Annual Per Cent Change
                                          Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
                                   1.20                                                               25%
     Sales-to-New Listings Ratio




                                          Average Price Annual Per Cent Change
                                   1.00                                                               20%
                                                                                                      15%




                                                                                                                         (Brown Line)
                                   0.80
             (Blue Line)




                                                                                                      10%
                                   0.60                                                               5%
                                   0.40                                                               0%
                                                                                                      -5%
                                   0.20                                                               -10%
                                   0.00                                                               -15%



     Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per
cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in
home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change
in home prices generally trends lower.
TREB Affordability Indicator
             Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest,
             Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home

              55%
              50%

              45%

              40%

              35%

              30%

              25%



             Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada
Explanation: This chart plots the share of average household income that goes toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities
for the average priced home in the GTA subject to the following assumptions:

1.   Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB
2.   20 per cent down payment
3.   Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization
4.   Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending
5.   Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index
6.   Average household income reported by the Census of Canada. Years in between Censuses estimated using interpolation (years up to 2005) or annual growth in average weekly earnings reported by
     Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey (2006 onward).

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Treb housing market_charts-march_2013-1

  • 1. Housing Market Charts – March 2013
  • 2. TorontoMLS Sales Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison 12,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
  • 3. TorontoMLS New Listings Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison 25,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
  • 4. TorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison 1.10 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month. When the SNLR moves higher, annual average price growth generally increases – often at a rate well above inflation. When the SNLR moves lower, annual average price growth generally declines and can become negative.
  • 5. TorontoMLS Average Resale Home Price Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison $550,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® average home price for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
  • 6. TorontoMLS Sales Monthly Time Series with Trend Line 12,000 Actual MLS® Sales 10,000 Trend (12-Month Moving Average) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales since January 1995. The blue line shows actual sales. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend.
  • 7. TorontoMLS New Listings Monthly Time Series with Trend Line 22,000 Actual MLS® New Listings 20,000 18,000 Trend (12-Month Moving Average) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.
  • 8. TorontoMLS Average Price Monthly Time Series with Trend Line 575,000 Actual MLS® Average Price 525,000 475,000 Trend (12-Month Moving Average) 425,000 375,000 325,000 275,000 225,000 175,000 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® average price since January 1995. The blue line shows the actual average price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the trend.
  • 9. TorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home Price Average Price Annual Per Cent Change Sales-to-New Listings Ratio 1.20 25% Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Average Price Annual Per Cent Change 1.00 20% 15% (Brown Line) 0.80 (Blue Line) 10% 0.60 5% 0.40 0% -5% 0.20 -10% 0.00 -15% Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Explanation: This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends lower.
  • 10. TREB Affordability Indicator Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest, Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada Explanation: This chart plots the share of average household income that goes toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities for the average priced home in the GTA subject to the following assumptions: 1. Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB 2. 20 per cent down payment 3. Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization 4. Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending 5. Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index 6. Average household income reported by the Census of Canada. Years in between Censuses estimated using interpolation (years up to 2005) or annual growth in average weekly earnings reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey (2006 onward).