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The fact is that each moment is a unique time in the market. This is why cookie cutter approaches to trading do not work for any length of time. Developing as a trader involves many variables and here are a few that are truly important
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Trading Is A Learning Process
1.
2. A few emails came my way in response
to my post and video "Trading What
You Think Can Cost You". Most of the
emails talked about breakouts and a
few talked about moment to moment
trading.
3. I want to write about moment to
moment trading as zone breakout
trading is not something I generally am
interested in. The market tipping its
hand is something I find more
profitable in the long run.
4. In the referenced post and video, it
looks simple when deciding on what to
do with a potential trading situation.
In truth, the concepts are very simple
but not always easy to implemen
5. The fact is that each moment is a
unique time in the market. Well, that
is fact for me. For instance, when
price rallies towards a resistance level
like we saw in this chart, there are a
few actions that could have happened
including:
6. 1. Price could rally with strength
2. Price could rally with weakness
3. Price could break through the
resistance level but not enough
demand to continue
7. ...there are quite a few possibilities
which is why trading is not easy. The
rally in this case could have taken
many forms which puts a stake right
through having any certainty until
price tips its hand.
8. It could have been a lack lustre rally
throughout which will set up a
different situation than one that
bounces off the lows and rallies with
strength right to the zone.
9. There were however a few thoughts,
questions really, that were floating
through my head as price unfolded. I
knew this:
10. - For price to continue upwards, I
needed to see strength on the rally.
- For price to hold the former
resistance and now potential support, I
now needed weakness in the pullback.
11. The key was where to direct my
attention to and that was simply an
area where price had dropped
from....as in there is history at this
price level. A history that meant
something.
12. How did I know it meant something? I
was aware of the large decline from
that area which indicates something
different than if it was shallow. It was
also a higher time frame zone that had
a few common technical factors
involved.
13. How price rallied would have not
meant anything to me unless I had
context and that context was the
resistance structure. I became
interested in price when it was
heading towards an area of interest.
14. The next issue would be if I had the
confidence to execute when give the
opportunity. It's quite meaningless to
see something set up and then not pull
the trigger.
15. Many people who enter the trading
world underestimate the power risk
and uncertainty have over you. How
do you deal with it? That is not
something anybody can really tell you
how to deal with. You simply have to
be able to do it. Hesitation can cost
you money.
16. I read the action pre and post break of
the zone and that zone was identified
long before price reached it. There
was nothing to indicate a shorting
opportunity. There was something
that indicated a long opportunity.
17. The next issue is operating in a realm
of uncertainty. Yes, price was telling a
story but how often does the ending
of a story not match where you
presently are in the story? Anything
could have happened.
19. All of this takes time and is not
something you get from a $97 e-book.
It's developing, a process really, into
someone who in an atmosphere of
uncertainty and risk,
20. is comfortable enough taking a trade
when the situation is inline with what
constitutes a trading opportunity. And
picking themselves up and doing it all
over again if faced with a loss.